Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's downtrend and broader crypto market outlook
Ivan on Tech delivers a solo market commentary on Bitcoin's price action, altcoin trends, and broader investment strategy.
Summary
Ivan on Tech presents a bearish short-term outlook on Bitcoin, which is trading below $73K at the time of recording, arguing that the market has been in a confirmed downtrend since October 8th and that premature bullishness has been a recurring trap for investors. He argues that a final flush to the 200-week Moving Averages around $61K would represent an ideal buying opportunity before what he calls the "great Valhalla" bull run of 2027. He contrasts Hyperliquid's strong price performance and genuine utility against underperforming assets like Sui and Ethereum, pushing back on commentary from Raoul Pal and Mike Novogratz who he sees as behind the curve. He also addresses broader macro themes including AI political risk, EU crypto transaction tax proposals, and the employment disruption caused by AI, offering a characteristically direct take on personal financial responsibility. He warns against XLM/Stellar as a trading vehicle, characterizing its recurring single-candle "god candle" pumps as untradeable and likely manipulated, preferring assets with sustained trend confirmation like Hyperliquid. He also flags MicroStrategy's share price hovering near the critical $100 threshold as a key level to watch, since Saylor's ability to raise capital for Bitcoin purchases depends on the stock remaining above that level.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin's Downtrend and the Case for One More Flush
Ivan on Tech: Bitcoin is going below $73K. We're currently at $72.7, dropping and dropping and dropping. People are in disbelief because they thought we were going to go to all-time high very quickly. We told you since October 8th to take a chill pill. We're in a bear market. It is a lower high after lower high after lower high — a high, then a lower high, then a lower high. If you open up a trading textbook and look at what a downtrend is, you will see this picture literally. A high, a lower high, and a lower high.
But the amount of premature bull-jaculation — as we call it — that happened right here was quite crazy. Quite, quite crazy. But there is a silver lining. If we see a final flush in the coming weeks, let's say we go into the buy zone — which would be a very nice proposition — fantastic price to buy Bitcoin at around the 200-week Moving Averages, which is currently at $61K. If we go there, I think it's the last flush before the great Valhalla. The great Valhalla of 2027.
Let me know if you love the great Valhalla of 2027. Write in the comment section. I think we're going to have great Valhalla towards the end of this year or into 2027. We're going to probably dip down a bit to the buy zone, but at the end of the day, you will see money rotating from all of this AI fervour that's going on. Some AI is great, but the valuations are so big, and you will also have political pressure coming after AI.
AI Political Risk and the Case for Crypto Stability
A few weeks ago we played a video where Eric Schmidt was giving a graduation talk at a university. He was there to inspire the youth and he said AI is coming, AI is going to be great, AI is going to be so fantastic, it's going to touch all industries. And the students started to boo. Literally told him, "Get out of here. We don't want AI." People hate AI. The average person hates AI. He doesn't want any change.
So the political pressure on AI is going to be massive. You will have the Democrats likely taking this issue as a way to get back in power, saying they're going to tax the crap out of AI — maybe a 50% tax, maybe a 40% tax. This will be a new political movement that likely is going to start around the midterms, because that's when a lot of political discourse is going to take place. And then think about the next presidential election. The Democrats will have to figure something out, and likely it's going to be a position against the rich — tax the crap out of the rich — and against AI — tax the crap out of AI. So the market will have to price in this political instability that AI carries. It's a very, very big political instability.
Meanwhile, crypto is opening up a new way to invest where you have political stability. It's very, very politically stable now. Look at all of the regulation that's coming through. Crypto is politically stable. I think it's crazy, guys. I think it's crazy. Finally, we have a politically stable ecosystem. We have all the regulation — the GENIUS Act, the Clarity Act — all of this coming online. That's fantastic.
Jeff Bezos, Zcash, and Sovereign Money
But number two, let's say you're a rich person. You're Jeff Bezos. Jeff Bezos is now very scared. He's speaking about how you should lower taxes on working people, kind of trying to get the working class on his side. He's doing media appearances speaking about the fact that taxes are too high for the average person. Jeff Bezos says the bottom 50% of Americans should pay no tax. Why is he saying all of this? Because there's a lot of pressure on him. He is the number-one rich guy everyone wants to tax.
Wouldn't it be nice for him to have a bit of Zcash? Just as a proposal, Jeff — just as a proposal — there is Zcash, and it could be very nice for your use case. Because I don't know how much this media goodwill is going to help you. They're coming for your money and they're coming very, very fast. No matter what you say in the media — "hey guys, maybe you shouldn't get taxed, don't tax me and you don't get taxed either" — no. He's basically trying to shift the focus from himself to inefficiencies in the government. But Jeff, it's not going to help you. Zcash can help you.
I think more and more people will start waking up to the idea that crypto is kind of nice — especially when you want a bit of sovereignty, a bit of encrypted money. It's not bad. It's good.
Bear Market Strategy: Profit from the Flush
Now, back to reality. We spoke about Valhalla likely coming in 2027. Before we get to Valhalla, I think we need to go into another flush. There are still people who are too bullish. I knew this was likely not going to go to all-time high. Why? Because people were so bullish. It was quite insane.
I have actually collected samples of the sentiment around the time when we had the fake-out at $83K — what people wrote online, what people said. If we do a documentary on it, it's going to be quite something. But people who did listen to our calls from October 8th, and throughout this whole situation, they're in a very good position. If you instead waited for ISM to kick in, you are losing 80–90% of your portfolio.
But again, Valhalla is coming. I don't want to be too bearish here. We will likely have a small dip to the downside — that small dip may take us into the buy zone. But overall, now it is time to really start thinking about Q4. That's how you profit from the bear market in the best possible way — because you have money to invest in the next bull. We really thought about this whole situation properly since October. The biggest payoff here is that you have money to invest in Q4.
And of course, we've been shorting the crap out of this market. We've been using the money line. There are many, many things that were super shortable, especially when you look on the weekly. Everything here — Celestia, all of this — has fallen like there's no tomorrow. Shorting is an important part of the bear and we've been profiting a lot from it. A lot of this is vaporware, so you short vaporware — it's fantastic. Optimism down 92%. Vitalik checking out from ETH — he wants to write a sci-fi novel now, apparently.
But that shorting thing is secondary to you having money to invest in the next bull. And it's time to start thinking about that, because in Q4 and especially next year, the bull is going to come.
Carl the Moon, Singing, and Bottom Signals
I love Carl the Moon, but he is now a singer. He's talented, man. He's talented. He said, "Bye-bye boring crypto, hello the world of music." Big shout to Carl. I love seeing that — when people are leaving crypto, it's good. Now Carl has not left crypto, and he's also a very talented singer.
But guys, if I start singing — if I start singing — you know it's a big bottom signal. I'm not that talented. But if I start singing, it's likely a bit of a bottom. A nice bottom.
Hyperliquid vs. Sui: The "Niche Product" Debate
We need to speak about what I call the "Boomer-zarus." There is a signal I don't like when it comes to Solana and when it comes to Sui, and that's that the Boomer-zarus loves them. The Boomer-zarus is normally one cycle behind where you should be. The Boomer-zarus loved Bitcoin in 2015, hated ETH because "ETH is a scam, Vitalik scam." Then instead of loving Solana in 2020, they loved ETH. And now they're kind of catching on to Solana.
So listen to this — it's Raoul Pal, and I just don't agree here. He says Hyperliquid is a niche product. I just don't agree. And Hyperliquid has been slaughtering Sui price-wise.
Raoul Pal: "What are your thoughts on Hyperliquid and what these guys are doing, even on the HYPE token? Are you tempted to do something about that?"
"If I don't use it, I wouldn't buy. And I'm just not a trader, so it's just not for me. I don't use perps, I don't use leverage, I don't use any of this stuff. So I get it, but it is a niche within a broader ecosystem."
Ivan on Tech: Bro, no, no, no. Hyperliquid is not niche, guys. The number-one use case of crypto is trading. There are few use cases in crypto — trading, holding, paying. That's it. Trading, holding — preserving money, maybe a bit of Zcash, a bit of Bitcoin — and then paying via stablecoins. Hyperliquid is one of the key use cases. So I totally disagree.
Raoul Pal: "It's a great one. You can have great niche products. But it has no real moat around it. Robinhood are going to come after that as fast as they can."
Ivan on Tech: Bro, Robinhood is not going to come after HYPE. Why? Because people use Hyperliquid because it is a DEX, and Robinhood is not a DEX. In our community, most people — when they trade and can't use Bybit or whatever, or when they want to be self-custody — they go to Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid has the number-one use case of crypto, which is trading. The price is loving that. HYPE price — we've been bullish on it forever. It loves it, loves it, loves it, loves it. And every day I see someone in our community posting gains they made on Hyperliquid.
Meanwhile, Sui dumps like there's no tomorrow. It had a pump and dump. Was this exit liquidity? Someone did the final exit? I don't know. But it looks like that.
So a so-called "niche product" is absolutely slaughtering Sui in this case. And again, HYPE is not a niche product. Absolutely not.
Raoul Pal, Novogratz, and the Old Guard Cycle
Hey guys, you really have to be careful here. I love Raoul in the bull market, but you have to be a bit careful. Listen to this — this is from 2020–2021. He's talking about BlockFi, Silvergate, Terra Network, staking at 20%, "basically risk-free."
Raoul Pal: "We've chosen some of the most trusted names in the space to work with us. BlockFi and Silvergate have teamed up to partner with us so we can bring this to all of you. You can just put money in, stake the network, and get 20%. And they're basically risk-free."
Ivan on Tech: BlockFi. Silvergate. Terra. "Basically risk-free at 20%." Guys, I care about this so much because when people get wrecked, they disappear from the industry. We have seen a big drawdown in overall engagement for all YouTube channels, for all Twitter accounts. People are struggling a lot. And when I try to explain how the market works, the number-one pushback I get is, "Oh, but I heard Raoul said..." You need to understand what's happening here.
Raoul Pal: "I'm massively overweight Sui — definitely over 70% — and that's not anything to do with the foundation I'm on, that's just my capital allocation of my savings."
Ivan on Tech: He had 70% of his money in Sui. He lost 83% of it. I could have saved a lot of money for a lot of people. A lot.
Raoul Pal: "I added some Zcash."
Ivan on Tech: Okay, I mean, maybe we agree there. Now here's the thing — in the bull market, Raoul and I are going to be best friends. I look forward to that. We're still in bear, guys. But in the bull market, when he says a bit of retardio stuff, it's actually going to be fully correct. That's the problem. In the bull, it's correct. In the bear, you lose 90% of your assets.
Now, I love Novogratz, but it's just another concern when they're bullish Solana after Solana already had its cycle, and they don't speak about Hyperliquid too much. Mike, I love Mike, but he's also like bullish on Solana. I want more of this underground, crypto-native bullish stuff — like with HYPE and all of that.
Mike Novogratz: "You know why Solana at this moment? Total transactions per second Solana can do in a day is 14 billion — that's more than total transactions on all other chains. You've got a blockchain that's now fast enough, tailor-made to be the blockchain for financial markets. And you've got an SEC chair saying, 'I want you to build on-chain.' Those two things are lining up."
Ivan on Tech: Yeah, listen. I know it. And this is going to be interesting to see — obviously Solana next cycle. But Mike is what I was in 2023–2024. The time for that was then. Hyperliquid did not exist then. Many things did not exist then.
The usage isn't on Solana now for stocks, for everything. It's not on Solana. Yes, you have all the speed. All chains are fast nowadays. Even Tron is cheap and fast. You can do stuff on Tron. So at the end of the day, just follow the damn price trend. That's it.
Also, we saw Raoul being bullish on Solana and Sui, and Novogratz bullish on Sui and Solana. He says, "There are some pretty easy bets to have. You can just own Bitcoin. It'll work." Basically, he says he's excited about Solana and Sui. Normally these guys are a bit behind the curve — one curve behind. So don't get surprised if it is HYPE and other stuff that actually pumps.
Raoul says he's bullish on Zcash — I mean, there we agree. But just a warning: most people learn about something, it was last cycle's thing they missed, and now they think, "Okay, now I'm going to catch Solana." But then another thing pumps. Just like people missed ETH, said "Okay, now I will not miss ETH," and then ETH doesn't go anywhere, instead Solana pumps. And they get so angry. "Solana is a scam!" But why? Because you missed ETH last cycle and thought you wouldn't miss it again. And now freaking Solana pumps. And now they're bullish Solana. "Okay, now I'm bullish Solana. This cycle I'm bullish Solana." And then Hyperliquid pumps. "The scam! The freaking scam! Scam is pumping my pristine asset." All this is the old guard. It's the curse of the old guard.
Macro: Yields, Stocks, and Bitcoin's Decoupling
Someone in our Discord asked about US Treasury yields. He was asking: if US Treasury yields go up — which they are doing, because people are dumping Treasuries, there's more uncertainty, more inflation uncertainty — what is the effect on crypto going to be?
The answer is: normally, higher yields are not great for risk assets, because we now compete with a higher risk-free rate. The risk-free rate is what the US government pays you — that's the baseline, the lowest-risk creditor. It is not, as Raoul Pal said, the Terra Luna 20% "basically risk-free." That is not risk-free. In finance, risk-free rate means what the US government pays you.
So if you have a higher yield, that normally is not good. But at the same time, Bitcoin could still rip anyway. That's the thing. It is theoretically correct that higher yields should suppress risk assets, but theory and practice are very different. Bitcoin could rip anyway even if you have a high yield, because markets are in many cases irrational. You just have to admire and respect the pump and be in the bull trend no matter what happens. Too much macro analysis is not great for profits.
Another recent example: high oil price. We also said high oil price is normally bad for stocks, but we became mega-bull as soon as stocks entered the bull trend. You remember earlier this year in February, stocks were actually in a bear trend — they had quite a dump — and we said it was probably connected to the oil price. But as soon as stocks flipped bullish, we forgot that the oil price was bad, because they pumped anyway. So we're bullish on stocks since the bull flipped. We keep the theory and the practice separate. High oil should be bad for stocks — yes, they rip anyway. So we forget that and just follow the trend.
Practically, the S&P and NASDAQ are ripping nowadays. Humble trend-following wins without trying to be smart. It wins over and over and over again. That's the whole thing with the mechanical rules.
Looking at stocks — NASDAQ up 17% since the daily bull trend. It's a freaking beast. Should it go bare? Okay, great. Risk off. We can then start speaking about oil price again. Now we don't mention oil price too much when it comes to stocks. Why? Because they don't care. The stocks decided not to care about oil. I don't try to understand it. I profit zero from understanding that fully. I profit when things are bullish and the chart moves up.
NASDAQ will open higher — very nice. S&P 500 futures up — very nice. IGV — holy macaroni, it's up. But Bitcoin doesn't follow IGV anymore. Normally IGV and Bitcoin follow quite exactly, but lately there's a bit of a decoupling where IGV pumps and Bitcoin does not pump, because Bitcoin is in a bear trend. It has a bit of a curse. Let's see what's going to happen.
Strategy: MicroStrategy and the $100 Level
Let's see the Strategy situation. Can Michael Saylor raise money until the next dividend day on the 15th? Here is where the price of Strategy should be starting to head back to $100. If it's above $100, then Saylor can raise money for buying Bitcoin. But currently it's at $99. So let's check how it goes — if it goes towards $100 or not. Something to keep an eye on.
Sui Network Halt and Team Response
Speaking about Sui — I'm actually bullish on Sui from a team perspective. Again, it's a bear trend right now, it's very bad, we don't touch Sui now. But you have to give respect to the team because they had a network halt, and the CEO said, "It's unacceptable. Period. You have my sincerest apologies." He seems like a nice guy. Taking responsibility, saying we messed up — fantastic. Fix it.
Nvidia CEO and the Vitalik Dancing Indicator
I'm not sure I like this. The CEO of Nvidia is dancing. I get a bit nervous. He has good moves — I cannot deny that. But I get a bit nervous. I don't want to see my CEO celebrate like that. Because when Vitalik was dancing, it was the peak in ETH accumulation. When Vitalik was dancing, that was the peak. In Bitcoin terms, ETH never actually recovered from that. So when I see Jensen Huang dancing, I get slightly nervous. Let's see, guys. Stocks are bull as hell right now, so we're bull as hell. But let's see.
Hyperliquid's Path to Top-Five Market Cap
Someone claimed that Hyperliquid could move into the top-five market cap by 2027. Is that even conceivable? I think it's conceivable. Why? Because when you look at the top-five market caps, it's all kind of fugazi stuff anyway. You have Bitcoin, you have ETH — okay, ETH likely stays. Remove stablecoins because they're not really counted. BNB — I love BNB, the price chart is good, but from a usage perspective, you can argue that HYPE has a bigger impact than BNB currently. People are not really using BNB or trading XRP in any meaningful way.
Sorry — vaporware. Big shout, but XRP has been vaporware for like 15 years now. You've got to respect the grind at some point. I just respect the grind. But yeah, vaporware. Then you have stablecoins, Solana — let's see. I think HYPE has a chance to go top five. It needs to replace XRP basically. I think it can do it. It's possible. Very possible.
But I love XRP. I respect the grind, man. For 15 years they've been grinding this thing and it's still number five. They dump a lot of the coin, they have an always-committed community, they think XRPL and the ledger are going to be used by banks — and now with regulation it's all about stablecoins, banks settling with themselves via stablecoins. But still XRP is kind of part of the story. I don't understand how. It's inconceivable to me. I just have to respect it.
XLM: God Candle Warning
XLM pump. Let's see what's happening with Stellar. Big volume — I love it when it's big volume, so it's a confirmed move. Weekly bullish. Daily — last day of confirmation also on the daily. Twelve-hour bull. One-hour short-term trend bearish. So all in all, on the weekly bullish, on bigger time frames it's now entering bullish.
But here's the problem with Stellar. If you've been in crypto for a few years, Stellar always does a pump and dump. You see it on the chart. I don't know how they do it — is it their market maker? But it has happened many times. It has a god candle and then it deflates. God candle, then deflates. No one cares about Stellar, then suddenly out of nowhere Stellar comes for like a week — "Oh, have you seen Stellar? Have you seen Stellar?" — and then it deflates. Then a year passes, another god candle, fake pump and dump happens, everyone's like "Oh, Stellar!" and then it deflates again.
For this reason I would just be a bit careful here. It's the third time now. Here was another one. Yeah. Something is definitely happening, but I would just be careful. See it as a trade, not a long-term hold. And also the problem is it pumps very fast and then it dumps. When it pumps in just one candle, a lot of the trends don't have time to confirm. The daily is still confirming, the 12-hour is still confirming. When they just pump it in one candle, it's basically untradable. And then they deflate it over months.
For this reason, this is not for me. I don't like it. I want more normal growth — candle after candle, I want to understand what's happening. Someone pumped it with a fat-finger market maker move. As you can see, high volume, which normally is good, but in Stellar's case maybe that's just how much USDT or USDC they needed to put in to pump it. I don't know. So for me, it's not for me. We follow the trends. When it comes to trends, you cannot just have one fat god candle. We're not playing that game. It needs to have confirmation on the daily. Based on this, I would say be careful. There are many other opportunities that make way more sense. I would rather have something like Hyperliquid — a nice grind up, not just one god candle.
AI, Employment, and Personal Responsibility
Someone wrote: "People don't like AI, me included, because it's taking our jobs. Government must come up with something — such as a minimum percentage of required human workers." Yeah, probably, guys. It's going to be interesting to see it unfold.
I'm a bit split on this. When it comes to employment and all of that, I'm more brutal in my thinking, and I'll have to apologize for that. I'm less in favour of trying to support people to get employment. I think if the world changes and you're not needed, that's on you to figure out. I know it's a brutal take. People don't like when I say that.
Listen — your employer doesn't owe you a job. It's their business. They have shareholders. They owe to shareholders. That's how the world works. And I'm telling you that because I want to be upfront. I see you as a friend. That's how I've been thinking my whole life. For the first year of my career I was employed as a developer, and I always had in mind that any day the situation changes, I'm out. The best way to protect yourself against that is to be good at, for example, crypto and trading. My solution was to figure out financial markets. No one can fire you from financial markets. You trade any day, anywhere. That's it. No one can fire you.
So it's a legit concern, but I don't think anyone owes you a job. A job is not a guarantee. You're either needed or you're not. And if you're not needed, you should not have a job. That's how my brain works. Maybe I'm autistic. I don't know. But I've never thought that anyone owes me anything. So I have a hard time sympathizing. People say, "Oh, our jobs, they're cutting them to AI." Well, AI can do what you do, so it's cheap. It's like a subscription. Good. Don't have opinions on that. Just say, "Fantastic."
That's why people are unhappy. Happiness is the difference between expectations and reality. My expectation is always: you're hired, you can always be fired. My expectation in business is: you could get screwed over. So you need to be fully protected. You have to be a bit paranoid. Humans are freaking monkeys under the hood. Maybe you get screwed over. So let's put full protection in place. I'm actually quite happy from that regard. I don't have high expectations on my employer or on anyone. Your responsibility is to handle the situation. If you handle the situation, you will be surprised — the outcome is going to be great.
If you're going to get fired, see it as a good thing. You can learn trading instead. But also — you get employed for something you know you're not needed for. You know AI could do what you do. And then the government forces them to hire a minimum percentage of humans. I mean, that's degrading. You're there just because the government told them to hire you. You're really not needed. It's also degrading.
I'm not saying it's easy. It's a very hard topic. I'm not a politician, so I don't know the solution. Maybe you need some kind of support so people don't go loco. If they go loco too much, you're going to have communism. You're going to have Soviet Union. You're going to have an industrial revolution situation. So you need to handle them somehow. Maybe someone smarter has the answer. Maybe Musk is the genius here — he says, "Let's get the plebs free stuff so they take it easy." Maybe he's the capitalistic genius protecting capitalism against the uprising of the plebs. They cheer on Musk, he tells them free stuff, and the system can survive. Maybe that's how it is.
I don't know, guys. You just have to have a bit of self-custody. I'm really concerned about this actually. Most people won't be able to figure themselves out. Sadly, most people are entitled. They think the employer owes them something. There's probably going to be a bit of unrest, some weird political moves. I'm a bit concerned. It's good to be a bit concerned and prepare for the worst, hope for the best. That way your expectations and reality have little difference — and if there is a difference, reality is better than expectation.
EU Crypto Transaction Tax Proposal
Did you talk about the EU tax regime proposal? Let me see what's happening. I haven't seen anything. Oh — a proposed 0.1% cut on all crypto transactions. Okay. Interesting. To fund it — yeah. Okay. Crazy. What's happening?
Good spot. This is again — with more and more people suffering from AI displacement, they need to get the money somewhere. Maybe they can get something from crypto. But here's where AI guys are going to struggle more. Yes, you can put all this tax on crypto, but I think it's going to be tough. Why? Because you take your crypto, you move somewhere. You move somewhere. Here you have to chase people with their crypto, man. It's hard. It's hard. It's expensive. It's possible, but it's hard. Especially with Zcash — it's harder.
I think AI guys are going to struggle more because they have incorporated entities. It's not easy to move a big, highly-valued AI startup out of the EU or out of the US. So AI has more exposure here. The AI stuff is going to get milked more. Capital likely is going to flow from AI into crypto. I think they're going to be easier to milk. Way easier. Way easier.
Bitcoin Bottom Scenarios: Price vs. Time Capitulation
To summarize: Bitcoin is looking a bit flashy. But even if you are a bull, a flush is good. Let's flush it down. Let's go to the 200-week Moving Averages. Let's reset the sentiment fully. It's been too bullish. The premature bull-jaculation has been very powerful — that was a tell sign that we're likely not finished. We need full capitulation.
There are two types of capitulation. One type is price — if we get down to around $61K, that's going to be fantastic. Nice capitulation. That's one. And number two is time capitulation. Let's say we just derp here until September. I would say the bottom is likely in then also. If we're here in August or September, then very likely this was the bottom and it's a very nice risk/reward to be in Bitcoin.
This is important because stocks have been absolutely ripping. While Bitcoin has been derping, many stocks have done hundreds and hundreds of percent. That's why I'm telling you — it's all about having the best risk/reward. Even if you're correct and this was the bottom, but it derps for like a year, it's very bad because you have opportunity cost. Instead of being part of markets that move up, you're in a market that is limp.
Instead, should we be here in August or something and this bottom still holds, then very likely it's the bottom and it's going to be super good in terms of risk/reward — because then likely this is very close to the rocket launch to Valhalla. That's what we want. So we don't have opportunity cost.
And if we go lower from here, it's even better from a risk/reward perspective. If you're a bull, it's even better if we actually take this low and go lower. You want clarity. When you have a clear capitulation, people say it's dead — great. Let's crush a bit more. We need a bit more crushing. We need a bit more crushing. Let's go full capitulation. Let's go. It's great.
ServiceNow, Enterprise SaaS, and the Vibe-Coding Myth
Service Now is beginning to take off. Let's check how it looks. Service Now — very nice. This is actually bullish for stocks, that all of the SaaS companies are recovering. We said that enterprise SaaS companies likely will recover because they will not be vibe-coded away.
Sometimes people are telling me, "But Ivan, I have vibe-coded a thing for my business." Yes — you're one guy, maybe five guys. Then it's okay. But what is driving a lot of these stocks and revenue for these companies is not you. It's not me either. I do a bit of vibe-coding here and there, okay, so don't compare yourself to what's actually happening. What is happening is that enterprise will not vibe-code their accounting. They will not vibe-code their CRM. They will not vibe-code any of this stuff. AI will not disrupt that.
So we've been saying: look at all of this enterprise SaaS — very unlikely to get vibe-coded. Will Salesforce get vibe-coded? I think it's very unlikely. And I think as soon as it's bull, it's going to be a very nice signal, because the thesis will then confirm with the chart — that this fear of AI has been too irrational. Since the peak it's down 50%. Yes. But here's the thing — we're still bearish. We know it's irrational, but price is bearish. We're still bearish. You understand? But both when it comes to price and when it comes to story, if Salesforce turns bull — great. But you always need the bull trend first. Story and rationality are secondary.
Service Now is actually now in a bull trend on the weekly. Very nice. Confirmed bull trend on the weekly. From here to the next resistance is about 30–40%. So yeah, you have a nice play here. Absolutely. Let's see what's going to happen.