Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin, altcoins, stocks, and forex in a live Q&A session
Ivan on Tech hosts a live stream covering Bitcoin's market position, altcoin opportunities on lower timeframes, stock market performance, and viewer Q&A on topics including jurisdiction, specific coins, and trading strategy.
Summary
Ivan on Tech presents a solo live stream analyzing current crypto market conditions, with Bitcoin sitting above the bull market support band but still bearish on the weekly timeframe. He highlights that several altcoins — including Toncoin, Zcash, Dash, Chainlink, and Onodo — are showing bullish signals on lower timeframes (4-hour and 12-hour), which he attributes in part to recent improvements made to the "money line" indicator on those shorter intervals. He also discusses Venice Coin as an example of back-testing methodology, illustrating why higher timeframes produce more reliable signals while lower timeframes offer faster entry. He argues that traders should follow mechanical trend-following rules rather than social media sentiment or project fundamentals, and warns against doubling down on losing positions. He also covers strong performance in tech stocks such as SanDisk, Intel, KLA, AMD, Micron, and Cisco, arguing that crypto-experienced traders are better positioned to handle the inevitable reversals in those parabolic moves. A viewer Q&A covers topics including ADA, Solana, ETH, BNB, South Africa's crypto laws, Dutch unrealized gains tax, jurisdiction selection, the S&P 500, Mantle, and a discussion of Murad's meme coin position dilemma and the challenges of exiting large illiquid holdings ethically.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin's Current Position and the Money Line on Lower Timeframes
Ivan on Tech: Bitcoin is doing something very interesting right now. It went all the way to 83, almost 83, got a bit of a rejection at 81, and we're waiting for the next move. All in all, we are above the bull market support band, which is a bullish point for the bulls. But still on the big picture, the weekly trend is still bearish and we remain risk-off overall for that reason.
At the same time, on lower timeframes you do see something very interesting happening with altcoins. On the 4-hour, for example, you see a fantastic pump from Toncoin. For all of you in Bulmania who have the money line for shitcoins on the 4-hour and the 12-hour — those lower ones — the 12-hour is actually quite good, and the 4-hour is also very fast at catching this trend. On the 12-hour you can see Ton was snapped very, very nicely.
If we look at the other coins in the scanner, you see everything that flips on the 4-hour does have quite a nice gain. Now that there is a bit of bullishness overall, I still see it as a short-term trade until we flip bullish on Bitcoin as well — then we can really go full send. But now that a lot of coins are flipping bullish on the 4-hour first, then the 12-hour, then the daily and so on, use the money line. Use the 4-hour in the money scanner to see what flips you have.
With the new money line, there are not as many fakeouts on lower timeframes. Normally when you have a high timeframe signal, you have high confidence — you get in, it's good risk-reward, and it's up only. The lower you go, the more volatility there is and the bigger the risk of a fakeout, just naturally. But you get the signals faster. We have adjusted the lower timeframes during the last month or so, you've gotten updates, and the lower timeframes now are fantastic. Very, very good.
Venice Coin and Altcoin Back-Testing
We also have Venice coin, and this one on the weekly is printing fantastically. Since the weekly flip right here, you have a very nice gain of around 360%. It's a very new coin in terms of how many trends there are, so the back-testing doesn't really make sense yet — you only have about three trends and the first one is non-existent. You can't really back-test on the weekly. But if we go to the daily, you have a different situation where the back-testing is very good. One ATR: 83% chance. Two ATR gain: 66% chance. There are a few fakeouts here and there — it's just an example of why a higher timeframe gives you a more confident signal, while the lower timeframe gets you an earlier signal. From the recent flip on the daily, you have a 200% gain. So all in all, many coins are now showing strength.
Total Altcoin Market Cap and Trading Discipline
But if you look at the total market as a whole — the market cap for all coins except Bitcoin, ETH, and stablecoins — it's not moving too much. The only way to make money in altcoins is to ensure that they are in a bull trend. You have some altcoins where the team is saying something, pushing updates, but then nothing happens. Some altcoins like Telegram, for example — the team says they're going to take care of the ecosystem — but it's impossible to know when an announcement will actually move the price. You never want to be trading based on announcements. It's very, very bad. You want to be trading based on the chart moving.
When you have a 12-hour chart on Toncoin becoming bullish, it is time to be more bullish if you are trading short-term. But again, should it go bearish, we're out. This is short-term trading. You can use the 12-hour or the 4-hour. The 4-hour sniped it very nicely. Check the lower timeframe to see whether an announcement makes sense or not, because in many cases a team does a big announcement, a big update, and the chart just pushes down all night long.
The reason I'm saying all of these altcoin pumps are still short-term is that you have to be very careful if they go bearish, because Bitcoin is still bearish on the weekly overall. It is above the bull market support band, so we have slow DCA here above — but very slow, very, very slow — because this can easily be a bull trap, to be honest with you up front. We have to follow the system.
On Emotional Trading and Staying Disciplined
No amount of gaslighting — and people are really taking it personally when I tell them what I'm doing. I mean, on this channel I'm just saying what I'm doing. You do what you want. Congrats. Good luck. It's crazy how many people take what I say personally. "Why do you say so? Don't say like that." Listen, don't debate me — outperform me. Where is your big P&L? Don't debate. Just outperform me. That's it.
The amount of emotion, the amount of gaslighting — listen, it's fine, it's fine. But I also see many people get affected by it. They get affected by what they read and they don't have a steady hand. You need to have a steady hand, especially in crypto where volatility is so big. Most people simply are not made for volatility. So we follow the system. The system is that we're bearish on the weekly still. So overall at a big macro level, Bitcoin and crypto as a whole — I have to still say it is overall net bearish.
Can you still trade it in a bullish way? You can. On the daily or lower timeframes, you can always go one timeframe lower if you want to find another picture and just play that. Bitcoin went bullish on the daily on the 18th of April. You can still play the bull bounce — the dead cat bounce — and maybe it develops into a real next bull market. Maybe it does. But at the end of the day, we follow the system. No amount of emotional people on Twitter will change that.
I want to see it as a positive sign — the amount of emotion. I'm actually compiling a documentary about what has happened here in April and May with emotions. I will show you that the amount of emotion and the fact that people really don't have a steady hand in crypto is very good for anyone who does have a steady hand. If you actually have a strategy, a consistent strategy that gets you into the new bull trend and gets you out when the bear trend starts, those emotional people are your exit liquidity. It is fantastic.
On one hand, you need to learn to deal with everyone else's emotions by ignoring them and not letting them affect you. But then you also have to say thank you to the emotional people on Twitter, because they are acting in ways that allow anyone who has any kind of strategy to perform very, very well. Markets are PvP. It's like going to the Wilderness in RuneScape. If you go to the Wilderness and everyone has maxed-out third-age armor, you cannot win. But if you have a guy coming in with a mithril scimitar — it's very, very good.
Solana, ETH, and BNB Overview
Now let's check what's happening with Solana. Bearish on the weekly still. On the 12-hour, still bearish. But potentially coming back. On the 4-hour, it did technically go bullish back here, but it hasn't done anything since then. Nothing new with Solana. People ask about Solana — overall it is in the same position. It is still risking the flash button. On the weekly, still bearish. It is still just here at the support. If price doesn't change, we don't change. We don't change because of the vibe on Twitter. We change based on price. And as you can see, price is the same as all of these previous weeks. The trend is the same. It would be nonsense for me to say, "Oh, now it's bullish."
I remember back in the day I was basing my trades on timeline sentiment — "There's no way it's going to go down because everyone on Twitter is bullish." And then what happens very quickly? Down, down, down. So we trade based on what happens on the chart. I don't care about the sentiment. If the chart doesn't move, it doesn't move. That's it.
The conclusion on altcoins is that on lower timeframes there is volatility now to the upside, and that's fantastic. I love altcoins personally. Most of my wealth in crypto is through altcoins. You remember in 2020 we found Polygon at a few cents — it went to two, three dollars. Hundreds of times. I love alts. But they also go down 80, 90, 99%. So we have to see them for what they are. If they're bearish, they're bearish. Should they feel bullish — which on lower timeframes some are — they are doing fantastic.
Let's check ETH. Bearish on the weekly still. On the daily, ETH is trying to go bull. Gets a bit of rejection. You can monitor ETH here — potentially it's going to go bull, maybe not. Still bearish on the daily. On the 12-hour, it went bull back in March but hasn't really done too much. On the 4-hour, it went bull at the start of April — about 5% since the flip. There's nothing here. ETH is too low volatility. It's just sideways. There's not a lot of excitement until it goes bull on the daily.
BNB — bearish on the daily, bearish on the weekly. Let's check the 12-hour. The back-test on this is fantastic: 80% chance to get 1 ATR, 64% chance to get 2 ATR — very good odds. But the 12-hour is also bearish, though potentially now flipping bullish. Keep an eye on BNB as well.
Q&A: Narratives and AI
Guys, there's not too much news today — nothing major. Let's go to Q&A. You can ask about altcoins, about anything, and we analyze it, check it, dissect it, and find opportunities for money-making. At the end of the day, we want to make money. Profit. Profit, compound, protect. Very important. You lose 80% in a bear market — no compound. Very bad. You have to profit. You have to make a lot of money. Compound meaning you take the profit into the next bull. No big drawdown. The whole system is explained at Bulmania.
Question: Is the biggest new narrative of this cycle AI, or something else?
Don't worry about narratives too much. Just see what is flipping on the trends. Previously in past bull markets, I was always trying to find the next narrative. You just see it when you see it. Zcash, for example — you could say it's a privacy narrative, but there's not too much else pumping outside of Zcash in privacy. Just see it for what it is. Zcash has been fantastic on the daily — went bull here, and since the recent flip you have a 55% gain. Very, very nice.
You have a few coins that are bullish on the big timeframe: Zcash, Hype. Let's see Dash. People say Dash. Dash is actually now confirming a new bull trend on the daily. On the 12-hour it's been bullish since the 12th of April and is now capturing the gain very nicely. On the 4-hour, bullish here as well.
Can you say it's a privacy season? How do you define a season? It should be a bunch of privacy coins. I don't really worry too much about the narrative. It's just that when I see a narrative, I ensure not to waste it. Are memes pumping? Okay, we take memes more seriously. We don't overthink it. Whether you believe in privacy or not — don't overthink it. If privacy coins are in a bull trend, that's it. That's probably the better way to summarize it. It's more about a signal not to overthink it. Are meme coins pumping? Okay, don't overthink it. But they need to be in a bull trend. That's the only thing that matters.
Q&A: ADA and Fundamentals
Question: Thoughts on ADA?
In terms of fundamentals — Midnight, all of that — don't worry too much about that. People worry so much about fundamentals. Don't worry. On the daily: bearish. On the 12-hour: bearish. On the 4-hour: bullish. So on a super short timeframe you could trade to the upside. You could enter a trade here with a stop loss in case it goes bearish — you're out. Follow mechanical rules. It is bullish now on the 4-hour on a super short timeframe, which means higher risk of fakeout.
In terms of fundamentals — Midnight, this and that — who is using it? That's the problem. Is anyone using it? How many users does it have? Some people say ADA has like ten users. Is it true? I don't know. I don't really use ADA myself. There are not too many meme coins or DEX things to trade on it. I traded a few things there in the last bull just to test, and it worked. But there's not too much there.
Tech is like the easiest part of the puzzle. It's kind of like we discussed the other day with business — building the technical solution is the least complex thing. The more complex part is marketing, getting it out, getting it used, users, integrations, network effect. That's what matters. We have too much tech and too little bull trend in this industry. Everyone's doing some tech. You need a bull trend.
Q&A: South Africa Crypto Laws and Jurisdiction
Question: Do you think the new crypto enforcement laws in South Africa will set a precedent for other countries?
I hope not. South Africa — I don't know what they're doing. You should evacuate very quickly. It is the DNA of the population — what is their hive mind? Is it more socialist or more pro-market? If the hive mind is too communistic, it's a matter of time. It's the same in the Netherlands. You go to the Netherlands, you speak to your local Karen, she's going to be very socialistic. The same thing in Sweden and many other places. If the average person wants to tax the rich and finds crypto a bit suspicious, it's a question of time.
I'm not an expert on South Africa — maybe ask Ran from CryptoBanter, I think he's there. But from what I've heard, it's not a new thing that they're confiscating things. Something with farm confiscations — I've heard things. That is a red flag for me. Don't establish there. Maybe visit to check it and then get out very quickly.
Let's see what's happening with the Dutch government. The prime minister — his name is Rob — is exploring changes to the 36% gains tax. It passed the house in February. The administration says it takes concerns seriously and is working on it. But the opposition has intensified. It's too much back and forth. I don't even know what the latest is. But guys, it's a question of time — they're going to pass it. All temporary laws are permanent, including the income tax in the US, which should have been temporary for the war and then became permanent. Nothing is as permanent as a temporary law. So yeah, you know what to do, and you need to do it quickly.
Question: Do you fear the European register for all Europeans?
I don't fear it because everyone can make the decision to leave. If it's going to be passport-based, then it's a bigger problem. If it is residency-based, I don't fear it. Anything that's residency-based — you have all the power in your hands to leave. Just like when you exit when there's a bear trend on an altcoin, you exit from a jurisdiction that also turns bearish against you. You need a jurisdiction that is bullish, that helps you, maybe offers discounts, maybe offers tax incentives, maybe welcomes you with open arms.
It's a bit personal. I mean, even if the tax rate is low, the amounts are still amounts. When I was poor before crypto, I would have done anything for those amounts. I always respect money. Even if it's low tax, I want to feel that they appreciate me. You've got to find something. It's very personal what you choose — there's no best jurisdiction for everyone. It depends on your case, your family, your needs.
Many people say Switzerland is good. Switzerland is good if you don't work — if you just get money from dividends and passive income. But as soon as you have an active business, that doesn't work anymore because their tax incentive doesn't apply if you physically and actively do work in Switzerland. So it depends who you are. Many people go to Switzerland when they retire and just live with passive income and dividends.
Q&A: Chainlink vs. Onodo
Question: Onodo versus Chainlink?
On the 12-hour, Chainlink is also going bullish — it needs to close two more candles bullish to confirm. Very similar situation to Onodo, actually. If I had to choose, I would choose Onodo because it's a smaller market cap. It's also leading this move, and you want the faster horse. We don't know which one is going to pump the most, but because Onodo is leading and has a lower market cap, I find it a bit more likely to have a bigger candle than Chainlink. But both are in the same kind of situation where they want to go bullish, and Onodo is already bullish on the 12-hour. Chainlink wants to go bullish on the 12-hour. Simple.
By the way, with the new money line you have the info table — you can back-test in real time, see your chances of getting different ATRs. The 12-hour money line told you to get out of Onodo back in September — 77% drop avoided. I'm amazed myself. Normally 12-hour is for lower-confidence signals, but now it's fast signal, reliable signal, not many fakeouts.
Q&A: Probability of Returning to the Buy Zone
Question from Azad: What's your percentage probability of going back into the buy zone?
No more buy zone — bye-bye to the buy zone. Currently I would say it's evening out more and more. The more we are above the bull market support band, I would still put it above 50% — maybe at 60% now — that we still get there. The closer we get to the flip, the lower that percentage becomes. But as long as we are still bearish on the money line, it is good to be overall cautious and risk-off. It's my system. It's worked for me extremely well. I'm not going to change it because the Twitter crowd sees something else. I still think us coming back down here is a very real chance. That's my opinion. Again, it's what I do. You don't have to do the same — people get so angry. Do what you want to do.
At the same time, you have lower timeframes. For short-term trades on the daily and 12-hour, there are many opportunities. But for me, the overall trend is bearish, meaning the chances on the higher timeframes for us to go down is more than 50%. This is what the trend means — it's more likely the path of least resistance is down.
Now it's still probability. Nothing is certain. You roll a dice — if three sides are the same number and three sides are different, you can still get one of the different numbers. You have a 20% chance of rain in the weather forecast — rain can still happen. So we can definitely go bull here, and then we're just going to flip bull and trade shitcoins and ride the bull market. Most shitcoins don't pump before Bitcoin really starts moving, and most gains are made in shitcoins. So there's really no rush here. That's why I'm playing the way I'm playing.
Q&A: Schrödinger's Crypto Wallet
Question from Eric Guzman: Schrödinger's crypto wallet — if you do not look at it, it will profit; when you pay attention, it collapses.
Many people have Schrödinger's crypto wallet in the bear market. It is when you simply don't check the price. For example, many people who were heavy in something and did not de-risk in October when the 12-hour money line went bearish, then the daily, then the weekly — after a while they simply stop checking the portfolio. You don't know the number. It could be minus 80. It could be minus 100. You don't know.
Many people, including myself — I've also had the Schrödinger's crypto wallet. When I lost millions — I write it in my book — I simply stopped checking after a while because there was real resistance to opening it and seeing it. So Guzman, your invention is already invented. Schrödinger's crypto wallet is in everyone's wallet who is not following the system when they round-trip and never know if it's minus 79 or minus 99. And then when the market comes back, that's when normally people open up a bit. "What's happening? Oh crap, it went minus 99."
Q&A: S&P 500 Analysis
Question: Can you show the S&P 500?
On the 12-hour you have a new trend here — not too old. With the new money line you have the info table, so you can back-test in real time. It flipped here on the 18th. It's up 16% since the flip. It has a bit of resistance here, so be ready — it could easily get rejected. But the cards are stacked in your favor on the lower timeframe. 12-hour. Set a stop loss. Let's go.
Let's check the daily. Daily is also bull. Fantastic. In this case, the daily was actually a bit better than the 12-hour because the daily gave one signal — quite fast — with no fakeout. On the 12-hour you saw a bit more fakeout. But all in all, daily is also bull.
Let's check the weekly. Weekly still bearish. Why is that important? In case the daily or 12-hour turns bearish, you have to get out very fast, because the weekly is still bearish. You can still take part in it, you can still trade it, but just know the weekly is still bearish. Bitcoin weekly is still bearish. So don't drink the Kool-Aid too much. I've seen too many times when you have a relief rally in a bear market — it pumps a lot and then goes down 80%. Bitcoin literally did that in 2022. It pumped 40% from a local low, then went down 70%.
I'm not Baba Vanga. I don't know what's going to happen exactly, but I can tell you how I'm positioning for biggest profit, biggest compound, biggest protection. Profit, compound, protect.
Q&A: Murad and Meme Coin Positions
Did Murad go down with his coins? I don't think he sold. Big shout-out to him for not selling at least. But he cannot sell. How is he going to sell? He cannot sell the meme coins. He sells and SPX goes to zero. Or maybe he should sell some Bitcoin like Saylor — Saylor says he may sell some Bitcoin just to remove the stigma.
If I were Murad, what would I do? Because a new bull market means new shitcoins and you are there holding your old bag. SPX 6900 — okay, maybe it was a fun joke last bull market. But jokes become cringe. "Haha 69" — so fun. Okay, maybe it's fun the first time, maybe the second time. But we grow. One cycle is four years. The things I found funny four years ago I don't find funny anymore.
It can still pump. We just saw it's going bull. But if I were Murad, I would be considering how to rotate into something. How to do it ethically — I don't know if it's even possible. He's in a position where he cannot really trade. He cannot do what we do. He can hope they pump back and then maybe send to exchange and sell, because at some point he must sell. These shitcoins are not like gold — you can't just leave them to the next generation. They're not like Bitcoin. At some point you have to sell. What's his exit? I don't know. But it has an expiry date. All of the meme coins, because they're fun today and not fun tomorrow. Except for Doge. Doge is always fun. Maybe you can leave Doge to your grandson.
Q&A: Mantle
Question: What about Mantle?
Weekly: bearish. Let's check the 12-hour — bearish. But potentially coming back. On the 4-hour, it is trying to go bullish. Let's see if the 4-hour back-testing has been good. On the 4-hour for Mantle, the back-testing is quite good: 89% chance to get 1 ATR. Very good risk-reward.
Again, don't see it as: "I lost 90% in Mantle and now I'm going to make my money back." That's not the way to see it. The way to see it is: now it's bull, you can trade it, you can capture one ATR, two, potentially three ATR, and maybe let some amount ride until the bear trend starts. Quite good risk-reward for Mantle based on previous back-testing on the 4-hour.
On the daily, it's 100% — but too few trends to make anything decisive. For the whole history of Mantle, the daily has been very good. 100% success rate, 3 ATR back based on previous performance. Let's check 4 ATR — also 100%. 5 ATR — 66% chance. At 5 ATR you're getting a bit greedy. You should take profit before that, at least to capture your initial. If your stop loss is at 1 ATR or 1.5, and it pumps, you should at least capture a bit at that level.
Q&A: Most Successful Coin in Ivan's Career
Question: Which coin was your most successful — the one that made you the most?
Matic is up there. Probably Matic. We found it at a few cents and then it went so nicely. Matic is definitely up there. I can't tell you exactly based on exact P&L, but Matic is absolutely up there.
Q&A: Is Most of Crypto Dead?
Question: Did you see Pomp said most of crypto is dead?
I haven't seen it, I'll check it. But he's right — most crypto is in a bearish chart. It is. But at the same time, look at this chart — Total 3, which is shitcoins without Bitcoin, ETH, and stablecoins. You have a shitcoin market cap here, and now potentially a double bottom, potentially breaking out. Then it's not that far to the money line on the daily. And suddenly there's bullish momentum overall. So yeah, today not dead, tomorrow — to be conclusive — it's dead. What's the alternative? Buy Bitcoin and get maybe a 3x this cycle if it goes to 200K? If you want to make money in crypto, Bitcoin is hard. Bitcoin is more for the compounding guys. It's not for the guys who want to make a big difference. You first need to become rich, then you need to compound it. You could compound it with Bitcoin, but it's more for when you've already made it. If you trade with leverage, maybe there's another way, but you need to be very good at risk management.
Stock Market Performance and the 360 Approach
So all in all, if it's a bull trend on shitcoins, it's fantastic on shitcoins. And you need to be aware of what's happening outside of crypto. This whole bear market — and yes, I'm calling it a bear market. People sometimes don't like when I say bear market, but Bitcoin went down minus 50% and shitcoins went down minus 90%. To me, it's a bear market. Bitcoin is still in a bear trend.
But what has happened is the performance in a lot of these stocks has been parabolic — absolutely parabolic. Google: 17% since the weekly flip two weeks ago. Let's see the crazy ones. You have different international companies that have done very, very well. If we just go to US stocks — SanDisk: up 400% since four months ago. And we were bullish even before because it had another trend before that. Then it had another big fat trend here.
And then people ask why money is not flowing into shitcoins — because it's in Wall Street. It's insane. Even on a log chart, the boomers are going to learn what a parabola means. We in crypto know way too well how this ends. We're going to see it when it is bearish.
This trend started basically when Bitcoin was not doing too well. So you've got to be 360. Coming from crypto, you understand the worst-case scenario. If you've been wrecked, if you've lost a lot of money in altcoins, I think you're more prepared to trade something like SanDisk — you enter bullish, you ride it, and then you take no prisoners when it's bearish. A lot of boomers are going to get super wrecked in SanDisk. At some point it will have a big correction. I don't know when. When it's bullish, you're bullish. Don't overthink it. But as soon as it goes bearish — people will justify why it's a small correction, why the fundamentals are strong. They're going to have so many reasons why the pump will continue. But you and I know: if something is bearish, we have to take it for what it is. Get out.
Maybe it's just a small bear and then it continues up — great, then get back in when it's bull again. You protect your downside because parabolas always end the same way. But this parabola can still double or triple before it ends. You never know when it ends. That's why you don't front-run the bear flip. You only flip bearish when the chart is bearish. Now it's bull. That's it. Keep it simple.
Intel: similar performance over the past eight months, 300%. KLA: 11 months, 100%. AMD: 72% two weeks ago. Micron: 45% two weeks ago. Cisco: 44% eleven months ago. You have to be 360. That's why we are 360 investors. We have stocks, commodities, ETFs, and forex for all the forex aficionados. The moves in forex are obviously going to be small, so you have to use leverage — that's just how forex is traded. But you can see USD versus Japanese yen, pound, euro — we have the biggest pairs.