Ivan on Tech analyzes the Bitcoin Clarity Act, price action, and market conditions in a live stream Q&A
Ivan on Tech hosts a live stream covering the Bitcoin Clarity Act's progress through the Senate Banking Committee, current Bitcoin price action, stock market conditions, and viewer Q&A.
Summary
Ivan on Tech discusses the Bitcoin Clarity Act clearing the Senate Banking Committee, arguing that the common expectation of an immediate price pump upon passage is mistaken — the act is already largely priced in, and its real effects will be felt gradually over coming quarters and years. He plays a clip of Senator Elizabeth Warren opposing the act and notes that her specific objections — banks engaging in DeFi, lending against crypto as collateral, owning crypto directly — are actually long-term bullish signals for crypto, even if they confirm the changes will take years to materialize. He also covers Bitcoin's struggle against the 200-day moving average, MicroStrategy's May fundraising via preferred shares, the outperformance of AI stocks versus broader tech, and a wide-ranging Q&A covering SpaceX's IPO, the US-China summit, oil prices, and European housing markets.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin and the Clarity Act — Why the Pump Won't Be Instant
Ivan on Tech: Bitcoin is doing something very interesting right now. We're still bearish on the weekly, but we have massive news about the Clarity Act. We'll be discussing what it means, because the Clarity Act has now cleared the Senate Banking Committee. We have Elizabeth Warren not liking it — she's whining and whining in the media that this is so bad, it's going to kill banking, kill finance. But at the end of the day, what we need to look at is the price action.
Currently on the weekly, we're bearish. On the daily, we are fighting the Goliath — basically, we're fighting the 200-day moving average. If you look on the daily, we do have a daily bull trend since April 18th, but the weekly is still bearish. This is more of a short-term bull trend. And as you can see, we're fighting the Goliath. Goliath is right here. Goliath is smashing us, but we still try. Yesterday we tried. Today we tried. We got smashed down here, we got smashed down here, we got smashed down here. And the question is: can the Clarity Act — that sweet, sweet act — save us from the Goliath? Can we do it?
We're going to be discussing that. And most people who discuss the Clarity Act do it in a totally wrong way. The common narrative you hear online a lot is that there's going to be this new law and then we pump. They sign it into law and then — boop — we pump. Normally, guys, unfortunately it's not that easy. I wish it would be that easy. I wish it would be that easy that something happens, they sign a law, we go to Valhalla. Normally it is not like that. We'll be discussing all of that.
So the first thing we have to understand is that normally when you have an event like the Clarity Act, it does not pump the price when the event happens. Why? Because it's already more or less priced in before, in real time. We now have a 70% chance of the Clarity Act passing in 2026. And normally what happens is that you have a gradual improvement in conditions after the fact. So currently everyone is already trading the Clarity Act. If you're bullish on the Clarity Act, you buy already. You push up the price already. But what happens afterwards is that we have the gradual improvement in the ecosystem.
For example, you could have tokens buying their own coin and being more brave because now it's okay — it's okay to do buybacks. It's okay for institutions to enter. It's okay for retail to be more assertive because now they have more protection. The Clarity Act has a lot of things when it comes to protection for retail, for institutional clarity, and so on and so forth. So there are many good things with it, of course. But when you see something that just comes out as news that was already known beforehand, it's very unlikely to do anything once it actually passes.
Now, when you look one month ahead, two months ahead, one quarter, two quarters — then yes, of course, when you have a big improvement in the overall rules over the coming quarters and years, it will be felt 100%. But will it be felt on the millisecond that they sign it into law? I don't think so. Why? Because we already know it. We can already follow it in real time. We can already position beforehand.
That's why I need to bring everyone down to earth a bit, because many people think it's going to be instant Valhalla. It's not instant coffee. It's more of a brewing. It's not instant mashed potato powder that you just put in the water and the pump is done. It's not like that. It took a bit of time, but it's very good.
Weekly Chart — Still Bearish, Fighting the 200-Day Moving Average
In terms of the weekly, it's still the same. We are in the weekly bear trend. We have to follow it. We have a lower high — we still have a lower high right here. If we break — let's see if we can break the 200-day moving average — that would open up the door to the next resistance at $86K, and then potentially we can even go bullish. That would be fantastic. That would be fantastic.
Stocks at All-Time Highs — But Be Selective
Meanwhile, the best place for the money right now is still stocks, because stocks are bullish when they're bullish. We don't overcomplicate. S&P all-time high. NASDAQ all-time high. Nvidia all-time high. Well, far from all stocks, but when it comes to the big indices, they're at all-time highs. When you look at AI — all-time high. Most stocks, though — this is actually the danger point for the stock market, because most stocks are hitting yearly lows, but AI is pushing the indices up so much. That's why you have to be selective. You cannot just go and buy random stuff. You either buy the bigger index because it's being pushed up by the individual AI outperformers, or you have to use something like the money scanner to find what just flipped bullish on the weekly or on the daily, because the returns there are very, very good.
If you don't overthink it and you just buy the index like S&P or NASDAQ, you don't even have to think. The problem is you have to be already rich for that to make sense. If you have $1,000 and NASDAQ goes up 20% per year, it will not save you. So you have to become rich first. That's very important. Big profit first, and then big compound. If you already have a few hundred thousand or a few million, then the index can work for you. Otherwise, you have to be more of a stock picker. You have to ensure that you are in early bull trends so you can ride them to the upside, take profit, and accumulate.
It may seem that all stocks are up, but actually the indexes are up because they're getting pushed up by the big caps. Overall, if you look at the 52-week lows — it's crazy how many companies are at 52-week lows. You have McDonald's at a 52-week low. SAP. Shopify. Many are recently hitting 52-week lows. They're being absolutely obliterated. And then when you look at what's happening, you have such a craze in AI right now. Will it be a bubble? Who the hell knows. We just follow the trend. The trend is bullish, we're bullish, we make money. If it collapses and the AI bubble turns bearish, we're out. Simple. We don't have to overthink. We don't have to look at "Warren Buffett is now selling" videos. Warren Buffett has been mainly outside of the market for like a decade. He's not super excited about stocks for a long time. You have to just see it for what it is. The pump is the pump. The green trend in stocks is the green trend in stocks.
Should we see massive global depression, AI overinvestment, a repetition of the dot-com crash — you're not going to miss it. It's going to go bare trend. You're going to get the memo. Don't worry.
IGV Tech ETF as a Bitcoin Leading Indicator
At the same time, there's a bit of opportunity in tech stocks. Tech stocks have been slaughtered. They've been absolutely destroyed. And now you have an interesting thing with IGV. IGV is now bullish on the money line, on the weekly money line. This is the tech sector — all of the SAPs and SaaS companies, everything that has been destroyed. Let's see if tech stocks can actually put a bit of a rally, because if they do, Bitcoin is likely to follow. IGV is the one to watch in terms of recovery, because this could lead the Bitcoin recovery.
What's good with IGV is that you actually have very high volume on this bottom here. When you have volume, it means that the market maker is buying like there's no tomorrow. Volume means that you have massive action being taken by the market maker to fill the supply at cheap prices that they then sell higher up and distribute. You want to see volume at the bottoms. Bitcoin does not really have that. I mean, Bitcoin has one candle on that spike towards $59K, but that candle is still small in comparison to previous high-volume events.
If you overlay Bitcoin price on top of IGV, it's exact, man. It's exact. Bitcoin is the blue, IGV is the candles — it's exact. So if you are bullish on IGV, it could spill over into Bitcoin. That volume on a potential bottom — I love seeing that. IGV has it. Bitcoin does not.
Vibe Coding, Enterprise SaaS, and the Security Epidemic
So if you are looking into the stocks, you have opportunity overall now with tech coming back as people realize: hey, maybe AI will not replace all SaaS. Maybe you will not vibe code your own CRM. Maybe it was a bad idea.
I don't know how much you guys have been vibe coding — it's nice, but it's also not nice. At the end of the day, you just want a solution. You don't want to babysit your own vibe-coded crap. You can get something fast, but for mission-critical stuff, for business-critical stuff, you're going to waste so much time on it. It's very bad. You need the boomer-ass software. Salesforce is not going away. No one's going to vibe code Salesforce. No one's going to vibe code HubSpot. It's not happening. For serious businesses that are hunting clients, converting clients, running business operations — for them to deal with their vibe-coded thing not working? There's no time, man. There's no time to rebuild your own SaaS. It's not happening.
I run my own business since 2017. If we have some kind of thing we have to babysit and it breaks all the time — holy crap. We'd rather pay for something that just works. So the next opportunity will be the return of all of this boomer SaaS. Whether it's Intuit, Salesforce — Salesforce is still not bullish, but at some point once it goes bullish, pay attention. Currently don't pay attention because it's bearish. We don't fight the bear.
Adobe — I'm not a designer, maybe you guys are — but there's now Canva and stuff like that. They wanted to buy Figma. I have a bit of a tougher time saying what's going to happen with Adobe from personal experience. But with all of the CRM stuff, I know they're not going anywhere. All of the business processes are there. No one wants to babysit and try to reconcile where the data went in your vibe-coded thing that, by the way, leaked everything to a hacker. That's another problem with your vibe-coded stuff.
We see now such an epidemic of hacks. Have you guys noticed that? During the last months, the npm repositories get hacked left and right. If you don't know what you're doing with your back end and you have a bunch of npm packages installed, you're going to be so wrecked. Your business is going to be on the dark web quicker than you can blink.
Additionally, there is some issue with Nginx. Most websites run Nginx as their HTTP server. This week: 19 million Nginx servers exposed, working exploit already on GitHub, cPanel auth bypass — everything is breaking now. Everything is freaking breaking during the last months when it comes to software. Maybe it is the impact of AI being used for security and finding vulnerabilities. But I just see so much — during the last week, npm hacked, npm virus. Just this week there was news that there was an npm package that infected other npm packages. Basically, if you installed an npm package and you are a maintainer of another npm package, that virus steals your credentials for your npm account and then alters your npm package to also be infected. So everyone who downloads your thing is also infected. It's crazy, man.
So everyone who wants to vibe code — all right, it's all right. There's obviously a place for vibe coding. But not so that all of the enterprise SaaS is down 50–70%. It's crazy. Let's see if they come back. If they turn bullish on the money line on the weekly, pay attention.
Elizabeth Warren Opposes the Clarity Act — Why That's Bullish
Let's get back to the Clarity Act. My sentiment with people who want an instant pump is that they think it's going to be like instant coffee. Binance watching you celebrate the Clarity Act like it's going to change anything now — it's going to change things for the next bull market. It's going to change things for sure for the next bull market. Will it change things instantly when the law is passed? Absolutely not. I don't think so. I think it's very unlikely. I mean, I'd be happy to be wrong. Maybe they're going to pass it and we moon. But I don't think so. I think it's priced in, number one. Number two, the effects are more long-term — more clarity, more security, more assurances for investors, and it's going to take time for things to happen that are not simply priced in already.
Now, someone who does not like it — and that's why I love the Clarity Act — is Elizabeth Warren. She does not like it. Let's listen together.
Elizabeth Warren: "...crypto-related activities that taxpayer-insured banks are permitted to engage in. But this one falls far short. Under this amendment, banks would be able to transact in decentralized finance, lend against crypto as collateral, own crypto directly, trade crypto derivatives, and more. What could possibly go wrong?"
Ivan on Tech: I mean, it's super bullish. But for example, for banks to do DeFi — you think the bank is just going to vibe code some crap and go live the same day and pump your shitcoin in their DeFi? No, man. It's going to take like a year, probably several years. So again, what she's saying — she maybe doesn't realize it — but it's super bullish for crypto. But everything she's saying also leads to the fact that it's not going to be fast. Banks are not just going to ship something and go nuts looping yield in DeFi. It's not going to happen. Long term, it's going to be great.
Elizabeth Warren: "Lend against crypto as collateral, own crypto directly, trade crypto derivatives, and more. What could possibly go wrong? Why are Republicans trying to divert Americans' deposits away from small business lending and mortgage lending? This just makes no sense. If the bill passes, even with this amendment, the next crypto crash could bring down the banks as well and bring down the entire economy. Let's strike this section instead of trying to tweak it along the edges and pretend that that fixes this problem."
Ivan on Tech: Yeah. Listen — maybe she's right. At the end of the day, if all the banks are all in DeFi yield looping and we see some collapse like with FTX, things can easily go down 80–90% in crypto. The boomers in the banks may not be aware of that. Even people in crypto are not aware of that sometimes. I see in the Kong session when I say that your altcoin can easily dump 70–80% in like three months, people don't understand it. For them it's like, "What do you mean it can really do that?" I hope the bankers know it when they use crypto as collateral.
So is she fully wrong that there may be a bit of systemic risk? It depends on how they do it. It depends on what kind of exposure banks have. Likely it's not going to be an issue for many, many years. But at some point, if it's super integrated and everything goes down and they're reckless — again, it's all about whether they're reckless or not.
Current Prices and MicroStrategy's May Fundraising
Now let's check some overall prices. Bitcoin is up 0.25%, 0.16% over the past 24 hours. ETH — I mean, what are we speaking? NASDAQ does it in like 10 minutes. Solana plus 0.55%. Crypto season is not here yet. Hyperliquid, 1.4% on the day, 9.9% over seven days. Currently, we're getting crushed by the stocks.
Let's see how the different stocks are going to be opening today. NASDAQ actually wants to open down a bit — it went to all-time high yesterday, today wants to open down a bit. Let's see if this is the collapse of the AI bubble or not. Don't worry, you're going to get the memo if it goes bearish. S&P also wants to open down a bit. IGV wants to open down a bit. Let's see how this develops.
Now let's look at STRIFE. STRIFE is wrecked already. For the month of May, Sailor cannot raise anymore. As you can see, it's already departing the $100 mark very rapidly. Yesterday was the last day for him to raise. Today is the ex-dividend date. So no more raising.
This month they had only one week of action, and actually the last day made it quite strong. Overall they did raise $2.2 billion in the month of May. In April it was approximately $3.3 billion. So it is lower, but at the same time not bad. The last day really pulled it in. All in all, if I imagine being Sailor, would I be happy with it? Potentially yes. It's still $2.2 billion. It's still good. But the margins are becoming tighter, meaning that he could not raise for all of these weeks and then the last day basically saved the whole fundraising for the month. So the margins are a bit tight, but overall I would say this month was also quite successful for Sailor raising via STRIFE.
Of course, when he raises, he now has to pay an 11% dividend on all of this. So it's another $250 million per year in liabilities added — technically not a liability because it's a dividend, but practically a liability because he can never stop paying the dividend. Otherwise the house of cards collapses.
And of course, overall, we need to see a change of picture on the big chart for us to really become retardedly bullish. We need a big change of picture where we don't just do lower highs and we go bullish on the main line. Can Sailor's $2.2 billion blasting into Bitcoin fix it? Let's see, guys. For now, it hasn't fixed it. Can it fix it? Hopefully yes. At some point the sellers should theoretically be exhausted. At some point.
The problem is that people also try to front-run Sailor. They know he's going to be buying a lot around mid-month. So he needs to figure out something there — how to not get front-run and then get dumped on. If you have an institution and you know Sailor is going to blast like billions from STRIFE every month around this time, you front-run him and dump on his ass. Because all in all, he raises, he puts into the market, he raises, he puts into the market. That's also why he's trying to go from buying once per month to buying twice per month, and having the dividend date twice per month, which would bring more demand for STRIFE.
Anyway, on the chart we need a break of this lower-high structure to go into bull trend. Let's see if Sailor can do it.
Q&A — SpaceX IPO
Ivan on Tech: Okay, let's go to Q&A — questions, answers, debates, discussions.
Someone asks: thoughts on the SpaceX IPO?
So guys, as you know, if I'm not an insider — and by insider I mean either a business partner or I'm getting a good deal — I'm not a fan of trading IPO stuff. All of this FOMO IPO stuff, I don't like it. Normally IPOs don't do too well when they list. Look at Coinbase. Look at Robinhood. They normally dump. They list, they dump.
Now, of course, it is Elon — it's fantastic — but I just feel I have no real edge here coming in as a normal pleb. Let's get into SpaceX at like trillions and trillions. What's your exit here? You think it's going to go to 10 trillion? Maybe it will. At some point it will, man. If we go to Mars, sky is the limit. We will not measure money in the same way we do now if we have other planets. So maybe it's going to be good. But I just want to see supply and demand. I want to see — they get the boat into the water. Does it sink? Does it not sink?
Look at Coinbase. They put the boat in the water. It freaking sunk instantly. You don't know until you put it in the water. They make the boat look so nice. But there was a Swedish ship — the Vasa — they put it in the water in the 1600s and it sunk instantly. The market is the water. Let's see what's going to happen.
Elon can also have periods where his stocks bomb. Long term, I never want to bet against Elon. So maybe if it lists, it calms down, it dumps, we figure stuff out, we see supply and demand — maybe we still FOMO it later when we know what's happening. I need true supply and demand, guys. Even if it pumps, it's okay. At least I know we tested the supply and demand.
Let's check what happened with Tesla. Tesla listed here. Some pleb bought at $2. Then it went to $1. It was bouncing around for a while. This is the beginning of Tesla in like 2010, and then it started to rise. So Tesla wasn't like — some poor pleb bought here, but he was still fine, man. He was still fine. But you understand — it's like we need to find the place in the water. Where are we? What was happening?
So yeah, I'd rather buy Doge than buying SpaceX at IPO. With Doge, you at least know the history of supply and demand. But let's see — when is the IPO? Between June 18th and June 30th. Wow, that's awesome. I actually look forward to following it. When we see the supply and demand, I'll let you know.
Q&A — The 1 Million Streaming Portfolio
Someone asks: how is the 1 million streaming portfolio going?
We followed Tone. We set a tight stop loss. We're out. We're out of Tone as it went from like $2.40 now to $2 at a tight stop loss. Overall, we need to be in new bull trends. Tone — we followed it on the stream, it must have been a new bull trend. We need new bull trends. And in general, it's too early. We need the true bull market to be back for us to be working that portfolio for real. You need to be in a new bull trend always, always. So once Bitcoin is bullish on the weekly, then it's going to be the longing season for all kinds of assets. Let's see if in the bull market we can take it to 10 million — we could even take it to 20 million. The bull market is going to get crazy, but towards the end of 2027, most likely. I'm happy to be surprised also. If we go to bull trend on the weekly on Bitcoin, I don't overthink it — then we're bullish on Bitcoin earlier. But for now, you see yourself: follow the system.
Q&A — US-China Summit
Someone asks: opinion on the China and US meeting?
I thought it was fantastic. Elon is there recording everything. You guys saw this? Like the boomer dad with his phone — he has this cover he has to open and he has trouble seeing. He's like squinting. I thought it was pretty cool. All of the Chinese and Americans mingling, taking selfies. Fantastic. We should have more of that. We should have more of that. The Huawei CEO taking a selfie with Elon. Great stuff, man.
Let's see if there's some announcement from it. I haven't heard any major announcement yet. If they remove tariffs — fantastic. Why else would you bring so many people there? Why else would you bring the entire stock market with you — all of the CEOs and everyone? Apple was there, everyone was there. There must be some kind of deal being done, signed, coordinated. So overall it seems bullish. It seems very bullish. Let's see what's going to happen.
Someone mentions: who to create compute power for xAI? That would be very interesting. That would be something. I think we need more collaboration worldwide. There needs to be a deal made with Trump and China — Trump gets what he wants with access to Chinese markets, China helps with compute. Let's see. I wouldn't be surprised if they announce collaboration here and there. Let's see.
Q&A — Oil Prices
Someone asks: oil at $104, Brent at $111. Despite the meeting?
The meeting cannot put down the oil price. For oil, he needs to meet with Russia. What could put oil down is a meeting with Russia. That would put oil down. China is not going to help him pump oil. Russia could do it. That would be a good step overall for world peace. Not to get political, but if you want the oil price down, China cannot help. Russia could definitely put the oil price down a lot. But can they do it fast? Ukraine has been blowing up a lot of infrastructure — a lot of these oil refineries are kind of wrecked. So I'm not sure how fast this would be.
Markets are forward-looking, so as long as there is some announcement, it's going to take the price down. But before that, you need peace in Ukraine, you need so many different things. Let's see. It's a complex thing. They've been trying at it for many years. But all in all, oil will not be held down there. Oil is very high — 100%. The market is saying that the Middle East situation is not under control.
Q&A — European Housing Markets
Someone asks: house prices in Holland are very high. It feels like right before the 2008 crisis.
I mean, it always feels like that. I remember when I was in Sweden like 10 years ago, people also said it's so high. It still went higher. It went down slightly — not even a lot — during the interest rate hikes. Maybe went down 10% after pumping 100%. So don't get too concerned with house prices. You're going to be waiting for the crash. At some point a crash will happen — yes, at some point. But you can wait for it like 10–15 years.
People remember the house crash of 2008, so they think it's going to happen again. But it may not happen for many more years. Let's see.
I don't understand people in the Netherlands, in Western Europe — you pay so much for a house. In the UK, you have this garbage thing where they want like £700–800K for this ugly dark brick house. It looks so small. You pay how much? £800,000. Are you serious? No sea view, man. What is this? You have good architecture? No — it's this brown brick. So depressing. It rains, man. It will rain. You're going to see it's going to look like poop outside with this dark brick. It rains, it's cloudy, and you walk outside and you see the brown everywhere. I don't like it.
The same thing is probably in many other Western countries. I have a big problem with buying a shoebox for close to a million pounds or euros. It's crazy. It's a scam.
Big shout out to the UK, but you need to fix that brown brick. Make it some other color. You have a country that rains a lot — you need more colorful. Look at Denmark — they have colorful houses. Even Sweden — they do yellow, shades of pink sometimes. You cannot have the freaking brown. Don't have brown. It's going to rain and it's going to look very ugly.
Look, Sweden — you see a bit of light. This yellow is very common. Then red is super common. You need to have more colorful. You need to have more colorful.
And by the way, the Thames should be blue. I'm in London and I think, "Oh man, it's going to be a nice river." No, man. It's freaking brown. Anyway, guys — goodbye.