Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's 200-day moving average rejection and broader market conditions
Solo presenter market analysis show hosted by Ivan on Tech.
Summary
Ivan on Tech presents a live market analysis focused on Bitcoin's rejection at the 200-day moving average, which he frames as a constructive development rather than a negative one — arguing that a proper bear market flush is necessary before a sustainable bull run can begin. He draws on historical precedent showing that touches of the 200-day moving average in bear markets have consistently preceded significant further declines, and positions this as the likely final stage of the current bear. Ivan also covers macro factors including the incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh, the departure of multiple senior Ethereum Foundation contributors, the SEC's move toward allowing tokenized stocks to trade on-chain, and the broader threat of AI automation to white-collar workers. He closes with commentary on education, compounding, and the importance of learning financial markets as a long-term skill.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Rejected at the 200-Day Moving Average
Ivan on Tech: Welcome to another episode. As you can see right now, Bitcoin is doing something very interesting because it is getting rejected in real time by the 200-day moving average. We did touch it many, many times. And of course this is not a good sign — you don't want to get rejected by a major resistance. Whenever we do it in a bear market, it means straight down, flashing down in a big fashion.
Whether we look at the 2022 period or previous times, whenever we touch the moving average — like here, for example, in March 2022 — this begins the massive long descent to the lows. And this is where the hidden bull has to come in. This is why actually getting rejected by the 200-day moving average starts the last and most exciting part of the bear. Looking historically, you touch it and you flash. You touch it and you flash.
When we see people's bullish dreams get crushed in real time, it is very, very bullish. Just like I wrote the other day — actually a few hours before this stream — we need all of the people who called for the new bull market to have their souls crushed, because it's too early. I call it premature bull-jaculation. We've discussed it very much in depth. But now they're quiet. It's very, very good. All of the dreamers, all of the hopers — their souls have to be crushed.
When we see the capitulation candle with high volume, it is the best risk/reward possible, and the 200-day rejection is the first step towards that. So in reality, I really want to frame it as a positive thing. We are entering probably the last stage of the bear. Timewise is one way to look at it, and in terms of the downside potential — how much it can drop more — obviously it's impossible to say where the bottom is. But somewhere around the 200-week moving average is normally a very good point to start becoming super bullish. That's why we have the buy zone. The buy zone follows the 200-week moving average. That's how we look at it.
All in all, Bitcoin is going to come back in a big way, probably later this year and especially into 2027. We said to be careful in Q4 last year. As October came, on October 8th, we said be careful because Bitcoin is starting to look weak. We have been bearish ever since. And the only thing that would make us change our mind is whether we go to the buy zone or if we go into the bull trend right here on the money line. Those are the two scenarios.
Then you have an intermediary scenario with the bull market support band where you can DCA slowly. If we are green on it, we're above it. But currently we're not even above it — we're back below it. Just like in the last bear, we did have a fake-out of a few weeks above it and then back below it. And actually this also corresponded to us touching the 200-day moving average, right here in March 2022. So altogether, I think the current setup is quite nice — fantastic from a risk perspective as we go into June and July. Sell in May and go away. Let's see if it happens or not.
The Psychology of Bear Markets and "Suppressed Bull" Thinking
Generally it's quite good from a risk/reward perspective where you have people screaming bull. They're so bullish. And then bam, we have another flash. Max pain. You think it's max pain if we go to all-time high from this tiny low here? It's not max pain. Max pain is going to be if this thing goes into the buy zone. It's going to be very, very nice.
Should we be wrong? Maybe it's a bear trap. Maybe something happens here. Fantastic. We DCA slowly here above bull market support, and fast when we go bullish on the money line. We have a solution for everything. We have a plan for everything. That's exactly the position we want to be in.
But overall, patience has paid off. Patience has been very important because we've been speaking about this being a high, this being a lower high, this being another lower high. When you have a high, a lower high, and another lower high, it's a trend. It's a bear trend. No matter how you look at it.
This is why we need a bit more soul crushing, because still people tell me sometimes: "Ivan, what if it's not a bear market? What if it's a suppressed bull? Someone wrote the other day in my comments — are you sure it's a bear market? I think it's a suppressed bull market. It's not a bear market. It's a suppressed bull."
You can have your own label. It's fine. But the label does not matter. What matters is that everything went down 80–90%. Look at Polkadot. Where is Polkadot? Where is Avalanche? Where are the blue chip coins? Any of this — they're destroyed. They're destroyed fully. And yeah, is this a suppressed bull or is it a bear market? I'm not sure. Let me know in the comment section.
But listen, it doesn't matter what you call it. The mental gymnastics people have — it's insane. In the bear market, we are fantastically creative because the last thing we want, of course, is to admit to our mistake. We never want to admit a mistake. No mistake was made. I made the perfect investment decision. It's just that now we're in a bit of a suppressed bull. It's still bull. It's a bit suppressed. I did not buy in at the top of the bull because it's still bull. It's just suppressed. We didn't lose our money. We kind of lost our money.
Why a Proper Flush Is Good for Bulls
Guys, all in all, I think we should be very happy now and very positive. Why? Because if it is the case that we see the final flash — which is probably the highest likelihood — if the final flash does not happen, we moon. We also have a plan. Don't worry. But if we see a final flash with the highest volume, I think it's the best scenario for us because we've been risk-off since October. We have a massive war chest to deploy. That's number one.
Number two, it's also good for the bulls. Believe it or not, it's good for the bulls. If the bulls get the proper flush — just like your doctor may prescribe you a bit of medicine to flush your pipes, so to speak — the same thing actually has to happen to the bull. We flush all of the leverage, all of the bad things of the industry. They have to be flushed. And it's enough time, because also, if this was the bottom, it's actually not that great for the bulls that the bottom is just a few months from the top. Four months from the top is the bottom? Get out of here. This is not a good thing for the bulls because the market has not been reset. We did not see enough bad actors flushed, bad positions, greed — all of this needs to flush.
That's why you have a bear market. It's actually good. Just like in winter you have all of the plants reset and they come back in spring with new power. The same thing is here. You need a nice bear to allow for the next bull. If you have a short bear, you have a small pump. Maybe it goes all-time high, maybe a bit higher, but to go to, say, 500K or 600K, we need a proper enema. It's very important. Without a proper enema, nothing is going to happen here.
So for the bulls it's also good. If you are bullish, you should also be hoping for the buy zone right here, because not only can you buy cheap — it's also good because then we reset the market fully. And then we fly very, very high.
Macro: Kevin Warsh, Fed Rates, and the 2026 Outlook
Now in terms of the macro, Kevin Warsh is going to be installed this Friday. He should start his work this Friday. The markets for some reason are thinking that he's going to hike rates. Overall, as his installation approaches, the likelihood of a rate hike — not a cut, a rate hike — is actually going up. Of course there are many reasons for it. Oil going high, for example. But still, the closer we are to his installation, the higher the odds of a rate hike.
So it's going to be interesting to see how he handles it. Now in terms of rate cuts, there's not going to be any rate cut according to Polymarket in 2026. 70% probability is zero rate cuts. We will have to follow it quite closely because if there's a rate hike and no rate cut in 2026, it would actually make perfect sense with our timeline — that we have a struggle until the end of the year, then a big fat golden fantastic bull in 2027.
But all in all, it's way more difficult than just getting installed by Trump and starting to cut rates. Because if he's reckless, if the market sees him as reckless, if the market does not trust him as a professional and as a solid choice for Fed chair to actually manage the economy and manage the dollar supply in the way the Fed chair is supposed to — to be politically neutral, and so on — what's going to happen? The bond market will notice. Different institutions and countries are going to be dumping bonds like there's no tomorrow.
Yes, he can decrease the Fed funds rate, but he cannot control the long end of the yield curve. What happens to the 30-year bond, the 20-year? He cannot control that. Only the market controls that — how it's trading on the open market. He can control the short-term interest rates, but the long end he cannot. So he needs to be as credible as possible. Of course, there's likely some kind of plan to help Trump with lower interest rates, but it's not easy. It's not just clicking a button, because it's a real-time market that he is now going to be entering. If the market does not trust him, they're going to be dumping 30-year, 10-year, and other long-term bonds. So let's see what's going to happen. That's one story line we will be following.
Strategy (MSTR) and the Bitcoin Buying Cycle
Next, let's look at Strategy. It's going to be interesting to see how fast they recover this time, because last month it took a long time to recover to 100, and this time they fell even more. As you know, each and every month on the 15th it is the ex-dividend day. If you have Strategy stock, you get the dividend. You don't have Strategy, you don't get the dividend. So into the 15th of each month we see a pump. But how fast we go from these lower prices — when people sell after the dividend — back to 100, where Saylor can raise money, that time is increasing.
Before, they recovered in a few days. Last month it took a long time. Saylor only had like three or four days to raise — from Monday to Thursday. But in April he had like two weeks. So two weeks in April he could raise, and now in May only four days. And now it's going to fall further from this price because it dumped even lower. So to recover from this point — let's see how many days he has this month, if at all. He can of course at any time come in and increase the dividend to make it higher. But that's something to follow.
Because that is the buyer of Bitcoin right now. As soon as the ex-dividend day happened and people started to dump Strategy, Bitcoin also dumped, because in a broader macro sense, Saylor is the buyer of Bitcoin. He's the market. He's the big daddy. He's buying everything. And everyone else is either positioning as front-runners — and that's going to be another interesting thing to see in June — whether we're going to see a bit of a pump before Saylor where people are positioning, institutions are positioning to dump on Saylor when he has raised money. Because he's like clockwork on the 15th. He presses the button because that's where the exit date is, and he cannot raise anymore now.
Ethereum Foundation Losing Key Contributors
Moving on. ETH — big problem. Trouble in paradise. People are quitting like there's no tomorrow. You have Barnabé Monnot, team members, Trent Van Eps, Alex Stokes, and many others quitting. Many heavy researchers — I don't know what kind of titles they invented for themselves — but they're quitting. Maybe they're not happy that the Ethereum Foundation is dumping all of the ETH. It's hard to say.
I'm also a bit split on this. I don't know how I feel about the Ethereum Foundation losing staff and getting smaller. Because a fat foundation is very bad, especially when they do social justice stuff, which they kind of had an era of — just like you had your emo era growing up. They also had a bit of a DEI era when it was hot politically in the Ethereum Foundation. And it's not good obviously when you have a big organization draining money and not doing too much.
At the same time, they are organizing and leaving the space, and if they disappear, who is going to come? Extractors. Extractors. The L2 industrial complex extracting even more money from ETH. People complain that the Ethereum Foundation dumps. Man, if you compare it to how much the L2 industrial complex extracts from ETH, it's nothing. The ETH Foundation sells like 10 million — people say it's Vitalik, it's really the Ethereum Foundation, but anyway — if you compare that to how much the L2 industrial complex has extracted, billions and billions, it's like nothing.
So I'm a bit split. I don't know what to feel here. On one hand I feel it's good that it's smaller. You don't want a fat foundation. But it depends on what the goal is. Will they make it cheaper? Will they rethink how they work? Because they focus on all this super complex tech which doesn't work anyway. So complex tech, but still people still use Hyperliquid and Solana. What's the result of it? They have account abstraction, they've shipped a lot. I don't see a lot of account abstraction use. They have another roadmap — a 15-year roadmap, so complex. Vitalik speaks and no one understands what he's saying. They look like geniuses, but what is the result? Hyperliquid is bigger. Solana is even bigger than Solana was.
So all in all, I kind of see both ways. If they leave a leadership void, you're going to have extractors parachuting in from everywhere. That's not good. Having a big foundation that does complex tech that doesn't achieve anything in the market is also not good. And ETH the way it is — trusted, decentralized — it was the same like five years ago. Even if you did not touch ETH since the proof-of-stake upgrade, as an average user, I don't know what would even be different. Maybe it would actually be better, because we would not have all of this L2 fugazi. They did a lot of adjustments to accommodate for the L2. Maybe it would even be better without the L2 industrial complex.
So let me know, guys. At least five high-profile EF contributors publicly announced their departures within a month. How many not public? And why? Why? Why? Did they stop believing in Ethereum? Is pay low and competitors paying more? Or are they just tired? Probably a combination. I don't think they stopped believing in ETH. I also believe in ETH. I just don't like how they're managing it and that they did the L2 thing for so long without seeing the problems.
One of the departing contributors wrote something along the lines of: "Very grateful, have worked with so many talented and inspiring people on an incredibly important project. As of Friday, no longer working at EF. Nothing but respect for the brilliant people there. Five years on network upgrades and funding efforts." Another said they had "five years on the leadership team, decided to step away, great people, great people outside of EF."
Fantastic. Okay, let's see what's going to happen. Where are they going to go? Are they going to be in ETH? In Hyperliquid? Maybe they're going to advise some new projects. At the end of the day, they probably make a lot more money if they do other stuff that is not the ETH Foundation. Being in the ETH Foundation, I guess it's a bit like an ideological calling. You go monk in the mountain. You say no to all of the vices and all of the interesting projects in the industry. You just become a celebate in the temple of Vitalik and stay away from all of the devices in the industry.
SEC Innovation Exemption for Tokenized Stocks
Guys, the next stuff is good for Hyperliquid. The SEC is preparing to let stocks trade on blockchain. Stocks like Nvidia and Apple could be traded 24/7, just like crypto. So on Hyperliquid, when you trade stocks, it's actually not real stocks that you're trading. But because they already have such a market share, as this rule comes into effect, the venue for trading actual stocks on-chain could very well be Hyperliquid. Right now you trade some kind of contract that is connected to stocks — not actual ownership. But this would enable actual stocks being traded.
So you have Hyperliquid as number one. You have other RWA projects that are also going to benefit from this. The SEC is to release a so-called innovation exemption for tokenized stocks, which will pave the path for trading digital versions of securities. In a surprise move, the SEC is leaning towards allowing the trading of tokenized assets. The tokenized assets would be tradable on decentralized platforms. The move could reshape the landscape of the American stock market.
If you want to watch one name, it's Hyperliquid, because it's the venue where people come, they connect their wallet, and they trade. Here we see a nice bull trend on the weekly — still bullish since the bull trend flip. Very, very nice. Then on-chain, there's a new bull trend. But let's see if it's a fake-out or not. It went bullish, then it went back. Be careful because it can also flip bearish just as easily.
On the daily — a bit similar. New bull trend, but a bit weak. Still a bit weak. But keep an eye here, because if we use the bull goggles, this is the first bull trend since back in September. And yeah, from that September high it lost like 90%. Has this been a bear market or a suppressed bull? I don't know.
Keep an eye here if it continues to the upside. But at the same time, follow the trend. If they go bearish, we're out. Today they have this announcement. How long it's going to take, when they're going to be trading — who knows. But there is some narrative. It's more for the bull. The reason we're covering this news is not because we take trades based on the news now. We take trades based on flips. You need to know that the next bull is going to be very nice, very golden, and very heavy. And it's going to be fantastic because there are a lot of narratives here that are going to suck in retail, suck in a lot of money, suck in a lot of mutual fund money. We just need to go into bull trends. This can still take four months, can still take until the end of the year, but the news is there. As Bitcoin goes bull on the weekly, as the market comes back, there's a lot, man. There's a lot.
AI Automation and the Threat to White-Collar Workers
Now guys, if you are a white-collar paper pusher — are you a white-collar worker? Because then you are also a paper pusher. It's fine. You sit in the office, you don't work too hard with your hands. You got an education so you don't have to be a bulldozer driver, and you're a paper pusher. Kraken slashed 150 roles while ramping up AI efficiency. Coinbase slashed. Each and every day there's a company slashing and slashing all of the white collars. Fired instantly.
This is why I keep repeating: you have to be good at financial markets so you're irreplaceable. No one can fire you from being a trader. Well, you yourself can get wrecked if you don't know the mechanical rules. But that's why you should learn them.
White-collar workers around the world are likely within the coming 24 months going to be fully replaced and automated. And it's not even me saying that. Microsoft's AI chief predicts AI will automate most white-collar work within 18 months, guys. Within 18 months. Clock is ticking. Clock is ticking very, very fast.
Lawyers, accountants, marketers, project managers — especially if your job is a lot of just speaking, middle management, leadership without actual KPI effect, where you yourself push some kind of KPI where the business gets more money — holy crap, you're going to get replaced. The only lawyer that's going to still be there is the most senior one who can check that AI didn't mess anything up or hallucinate some garbage. You still need someone responsible for AI. You need to be either super good — the senior guy still left to check what AI is doing — or you're out.
Accountant — same thing. You will need the auditor person, the senior accountant to double-check. Marketer — yeah, this one's going to be interesting. But nowadays, before you needed a whole marketing team. You needed a guy to do professional video. Now people are just doing AI slop. Project manager — yeah, especially this one. It's going to be interesting because what is AI bad at? AI cannot give you any kind of new insight that didn't already exist. It can't really invent. Maybe for you it seems like it invented something, but it just gives you information that is already out there.
Project management — you're doing very little value-add in terms of discovering something. You're just saying, "Oh, you know, this guy and that guy should speak. Did you connect with this guy? Hey, how is the deadline?" A monkey can do it nowadays with AI. Your project manager — a monkey can do what you do. AI has full context. Do you have full context? You don't. You need another sync. You need another coffee. You need to speak more. You need to waste more time getting fully aligned for the Q4 deliverables. All of this corporate speak. Getting a bird's eye view? Man, listen, AI has the bird's eye view. Get out of here. Stop wasting company money.
It's going to be crazy. So listen, if you're a project manager, I'm telling you honestly — you're working against the clock. Figure something out.
Being Upfront With Friends
Let me know if you agree or disagree. Sometimes people tell me, "Ivan, you need to be more sensitive because it's people's work. You need to be more polite about how you say it. Don't say they're going to get fired fast. Say it nicer. It's people's lives."
But guys, we're friends. We're friends in the chat. I see you as friends. If we were acquaintances, I would tell you, "Haha, good for you. Great job. White collar. Great. You went to some degree. Great." And then think to myself something else entirely. But I'm upfront with you guys. I'm upfront with you. Okay, let's go to Q&A.
Q&A: Bitcoin Cycles, Human Psychology, and Market Timing
Ivan on Tech: Why expect a bull next year? That's out of cycle. Well, it kind of exactly fits with the cycle. Normally it's just human psychology. Some things are just human psychology. For human psychology to forget the greed, to forget all of the bad stuff that happened in the last bull, to forget that they got wrecked — it takes around a year. Maybe it's some grief cycle that we have. But it's around the year where all of the bulls get convinced that, hey, actually it's a bear market. Because normally that's where the next bull market starts — when all of the bulls have tapped out.
I guess it has to do with some collective psychology that after a year — like here, for example, after a year — Bitcoin just feels cheap enough for most people. Most people feel more confident. It's been not only price capitulation but also time. You need time. People feel it's a new beginning. Whatever happened before, it happened. It was so long ago.
Just from a time perspective, don't underestimate it. People sometimes say, "But how do the cycles repeat?" Well, because we're the same monkey as in the stone age. You just had a massive pump to 120K a few months ago. It still feels too recent. And that's why it takes time to shake out.
Here's the better answer. For us to pump, you need all the sellers gone. If the sellers still have hope that maybe we will recover, they don't sell. That's why you need time — so sellers give up and sell their coins. You see it here, for example. You see this massive volume cluster here. Basically this whole cluster is people giving up and selling their coins. You need this to happen. Otherwise, as soon as you pump, they dump it back. Even if we go to the next bull — let's say from now we go to 120K — they're going to say, "Holy crap, it's so nice. We're back to all-time high. Let me dump here because I forgot to dump here, but now I get another chance from God. Let me dump the crap out of it." And then that's what I mean. If this was the bottom, it's also bad for bulls. You need a proper flush. You need people to give up their coins and not hope for a V-shaped recovery. And that takes around a year.
Historically, maybe it's connected to human psyche somehow. For how long can you struggle opening your portfolio at minus 80% red? Maybe after a year you say, okay, forget it. Let me just sell at the low.
So when I see big volume — I need to see big volume like this — it's going to be a very nice signal that the bottom is likely in. Because you see big volume but no dump. Flat. Why? People dump a lot, but here's the demand. Demand comes in, market makers are filling up their stock, and we go up.
Never disrespect the time component, guys. The time component is important. It's because again, it's how our human psychology works, how long we can struggle before we give up.
On Shorting All-Time Highs and Following Trends
Ivan, do you think breaking all-time high at 667K is a good short opportunity? Where would the take profit be? This is asking about the exact mechanical rules, because mechanical rules is all about when to enter exactly, when to take profit, when to set stop loss.
But in terms of the approach — I wouldn't be too aggressive. We break old all-time high, go to the daily, and see the bear trend. Should we go bearish here, it's a good opportunity. Look at the trend as the main thing. That's how the mechanical rules work. Then of course, the previous all-time high can just be seen as a bit of support. So you could scale in a bit slower in a bear trend and then faster should we go below it, because that is a big support.
It's better to just follow the trends than to add more variables. But if you want even more certainty, you can scale a bit more should we go below it because it is support. On the daily we're still bullish. We almost went below it yesterday and the day before. But for now it is bullish on the daily. So entering new short positions — I wouldn't do it until we're bearish on the daily. On the weekly we're bearish for a long time already.
The Psychological Whiplash of a Bear Market Bounce
You know, this is why I'm excited about this 200-day moving average rejection. Because what's worse than being in a bad spot is when you got hope and it got crushed. I actually write about it in my book also. After you thought we're going to go to all-time high and your hope is crushed — man, that's tough. That's tough. And I've been there. I've been there.
Here in my book I speak about my biggest losses going through the bear, checking the price every day. There was a moment during the bear when I lost a lot of money — maybe three months into the crash, kind of exactly like here — when the market bounced for a few glorious weeks. It felt like the nightmare was ending. The charts started turning green. Hope crept back in.
Ivan on Tech (reading from his book): "I remember the physical sensation of relief. My shoulders dropping. My jaw unclenching. The ability to take a full breath for the first time in months. Life was fun again. I was present with my family in a way I hadn't been. I laughed more. I slept better. But it was all a mirage. The vacation from hell felt like salvation, but it was all a mirage. The bounce was just that — a bounce, a lower high before the next leg down. Within weeks, the market resumed its descent. I was pulled back into the abuse. Except now it was worse."
This is an important point. It's actually worse after your hope gets crushed. That's why normally it is stairs up, then elevator down — because your hope gets crushed. We need that. For the bear market to be fully propagated, we need the flush. We need it.
"The psychological whiplash was devastating. Then that's when I started to shut down. First came denial. I told myself it was fine. The market goes in cycles. This is just part of the journey. And I threw myself into work and family, not even looking at the portfolio."
Very common. Very, very common. So let's see what's going to happen. I don't know the future. Should we go up, we have a plan. Should we flash, it will be the best risk/reward for bulls, for bears, for everyone.
Compounding, Capital Protection, and the Stay-Rich Mindset
If you're investing for the short term, you've missed the entire reason why there's purpose in investing. You need to invest for the long term. That's very important.
We have the simulation here of compounding because I'm all about compounding. Bad things start to happen if you round-trip. Let's say this is just compounding based on how your capital grows in the stock market — the average returns for S&P 500, 8% long-term returns. And let's say you have a 70% crash. Your long-term reward return goes from 4.7 to 1.3. That's why it's so important to not ride the bear down. You destroy capital. It's very bad. Your compounding messes up.
The most important thing for the long term to keep in mind is the compounding — the fact that you have profit and you can then take it into the new bull and deploy it. If you have enough profit, let's say you get over a million, then you need to consider switching from taking risks to just letting it ride in, say, the stock market, the bond market — a nice boomer portfolio. I know in crypto we don't like speaking about that, but you know there's a stay-rich portfolio where you have to stay rich. It's not going to go 100x. The mindset is different.
You need to take risk until you're rich. When you're rich, you actually have to start putting more money — not everything at once, but start moving money slowly into the stay-rich bucket. The stay-rich bucket is going to go up no matter what. You don't have to think about it too much. Get rich and stay rich are two different mindsets. That's why many people that make it in crypto, make it in different markets, they lose everything anyway. The round-trip. Because what made them the money is actually what also lost them the money. It's a double-edged sword.
Big profit — that's how you become rich. That's one part. Staying rich is the second part. Profit, compound, protect — very important.
The Money Scanner and Global Stock Coverage
We've had stocks in Bulmania for over a year in our system. Stocks have been part of the 360 approach since around summer 2025 when we added it. So it's been very important ever since. The S&P has been in a bear trend for a few months — like March or something — but many stocks haven't. Many stocks have just been pushing and pushing and pushing. That's the beauty — you don't have to wait so long. If you have the correct tools like the Money Scanner, you know what's flipping bullish. And we support all countries, not only the S&P and not only the American market. We support all of them.
Here we have all the different countries — US, UK. Let's see what's happening in the UK. Arm Holdings. BP — they love the oil crisis. Glencore. But the most action is in the US. All of the big tech, all of the AI stuff — it's US mainly. But then if you have access to China, you'd likely need either your broker to give you access to the Chinese market or you can open an account in an Asian market like Singapore or Hong Kong. For Tencent, your normal broker should be able to give you access, and it's also present on many crypto platforms. China has also been quite interesting.
France — let's see. Germany — something happening. SAP. Holy crap. Yeah, the AI. I think as soon as it goes bull, I would be bullish on SAP because people that have a real business are not going to vibe-code their SAP. It's not happening. Louis Vuitton — minus 17. Total Energies — there you go. Something is actually happening. If you are from France, let me know. You have very high tax. It's crazy, man. It's crazy. Do you get good stuff for it? It's insane.
What Industry Would You Start a Business In?
Azad asks: what industry would you start a business in? What industry excites you? Only trading, only financial markets. It's what I do. I just find the financial markets fascinating. It's insane. It's also so fun — it needs to be fun as well, meaning you have the drive to be here every day. Financial markets are the best because you learn about everything. You learn about the world. You need to understand the world to be good at financial markets. You need to understand human psychology. There's politics, there's news. It's fun, man. It's fun.
I also find that speculation is going to be here forever. As AI takes jobs, what are people going to do? They're going to speculate. You get UBI, you throw it into stocks, you throw it into crypto. AI is going to take over your job and people are going to try to make it by trading, by speculating.
For me, it's been tightly connected to crypto and financial markets. That's what I'm excited about. That's what I actually want to work on. But to invest — that's different. Let's say we have a space race IPO. There's going to be a bunch of stuff. I would be interested in following different industries. And that's the best of investing in financial markets — you can be in any industry. Today we speak about AI. Today we're experts in AI. Tomorrow we're experts in geopolitics. We are oil trading connoisseurs, commodity trading connoisseurs, and tomorrow we follow the SpaceX space race. I find it fascinating. It's crazy. I find it super fascinating.
On Education: STEM vs. Easy Degrees
But it's tough. I'm thinking if I would, let's say, not know what I know right now and I was entering university — I think I would pick the same thing. I just feel strongly about natural sciences. Here's the important thing: if you have a kid, have them take natural sciences in university or in high school. Because I know I have many friends who said, "I'm going to study economics in high school." Okay, why? It's not like you learn something big. You just learn less of the other stuff. You learned accounting in high school instead of learning biology and chemistry that could actually allow you to continue in engineering. So you close the door on all of the STEM university stuff. And what do you open? Okay, now you know how to account and you are 15 years old. A monkey can account nowadays.
You learned company balance sheets. Listen, it's not hard, man. It's not hard. If you learn hard stuff in STEM — hard math, hard physics, hard chemistry — it's actually manageable. Maybe it's just the Swedish system, but in Sweden we could choose: you go STEM, natural science, or you go economics. And the economics guys didn't have hard math. It wasn't real. It would be different if they learned like real quant, real super hard math. No, they learned easy stuff. Easy. A bit of accounting, a bit of company balance sheet — they learned it in an afternoon.
You need hard stuff. When you're young, you have to use your brain. You have to do hard stuff. If you do easy stuff, it's very bad, because then you grow up and now it's hard. Now you're in your 30s and you know, to go and do hard stuff in a new field — get out of here. I'm not doing that again. I have my place. I'm an expert in my field and I'm just continuing down that path.
Imagine you're like 30 and you only did easy stuff. You did art or whatever in high school or university, and now you have to learn real stuff. You have to learn something real. Holy crap. And also AI is going to replace you anyway. You didn't use your 20s to become good. So you're not irreplaceable by AI, so you can't be in a senior position.
I don't know how we even got here. But I feel strongly about it because I feel that people have been scammed. In university and in high school, they were not upfront. They were not upfront that if you choose this easy thing, you're going to struggle. And now it leads to people realizing, "Holy crap, I got scammed." They feel that they need to tax the rich because they got some degree no one needs, no one cares about. And they feel that the world is unfair. I could have fixed it. I could have fixed it by telling them: if you don't study STEM, you close a bunch of doors. Listen, you want to be a freaking artist? You can still be an artist with STEM. You can still use your brain. You can still be an artist.
Computer science — I studied computer science. Now it's automation and AI. So anyway, no easy answers. Have a good day. Learn financial markets.