Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's bear trend, stock market ATHs, and macro pressures in a live Q&A stream
Ivan on Tech hosts a live stream covering Bitcoin's position in a bear trend while stocks hit new all-time highs, with Q&A on altcoins, macro conditions, and trading strategy.
Summary
Ivan on Tech presents a solo live stream analyzing the divergence between Bitcoin's ongoing bear trend and the stock market hitting new all-time highs on both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. He argues that the US bond market is under significant stress — with 30-year yields above 5% — and that the Federal Reserve may be forced to intervene by printing money and buying government bonds, which would be bullish for risk assets including Bitcoin. He covers ETF outflows, Strategy's (MicroStrategy) diminishing ability to raise capital through its preferred stock instrument, and walks through individual altcoin charts including Sui, Hyperliquid, Fetch.ai, and Bittensor. The stream includes a live Q&A with community members on portfolio allocation, altcoin selection, and trading mechanics.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Stock Market Hits New All-Time Highs While Bitcoin Lags
Ivan on Tech: Guys, welcome to another episode. As you can see right now, the stock market is going higher and higher. The S&P is currently at a new all-time high. If you look at NASDAQ, another new all-time high. Just a few hours ago, I released a video analyzing the stock market because many people are saying that it is overheated, that it's a bubble, that the AI bubble is going to pop. And listen, it may or it may not pop. Who the hell knows? But the trend is bullish. The trend is bullish. So we don't overcomplicate it at all. We don't overthink it. We don't over-analyze. If the trend is bullish, it's bullish.
Should the AI bubble pop and destroy all stocks? Well, they're going to go bearish before they go to zero — way, way, way before they go to zero. Whether it is on the weekly or on the daily, we're going to see it. It's not like we're going to miss it.
By the way, guys, let me know what you think now that my face is here. You see my face and you see the screen — basically two in one. We didn't have it like that before. Before you had either this or the screen. Now you have two in one.
Bitcoin's Position and the Fed's Dilemma
Now looking at Bitcoin — Bitcoin is pumping a bit as well. Bitcoin is now back above almost $81K. Overall, we're still in a bear trend, but let's see. Bitcoin is putting in a fight. Bitcoin is trying to pump to the upside. And the overall expectation now is that the Fed is going to step in and save us in one way or another.
We have the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, now confirmed. But he also has to do a bit of work here, because the US bond market is in a crisis. The recent 30-year bond auction ended with a yield above 5%. It's crazy. The institutions, the big money that is buying the bonds, is asking for a very high yield from the US government. Otherwise, they're not buying. And so the Fed may have to step in and actually start buying government bonds, because the open market, as you can see, is demanding a super, super high rate. For the US government, this is a very high rate — an extremely, extremely high rate.
Long-term yields are now above levels seen prior to the Fed rate cuts — another brutal reminder that the Fed cannot contain the long end of the yield curve. Well, they can, if they start buying. They need to start buying. They cannot control it by lowering or increasing the interest rate that the Fed controls. By changing that, they cannot control the long end of the yield curve — meaning the longer yields like the 30-year and 10-year. But they could absolutely control the yield if they actually print money and start buying and participating in the open market, so to speak — in quotation marks, because if they print money and participate, it's not really an open and free market. It's more or less a centrally controlled market then.
So that is likely going to be the next step if this continues — if the government cannot raise money by selling debt, by selling treasuries, and they have to pay so much yield to raise money. The Fed will have to step in. Something has to break. Something has to force the hand of the Fed to intervene. It could be the bond market. We need something to break.
Actually, when this news came out, Bitcoin started to pump. Bitcoin went from around $79K to now $81K in about an hour. So overall, for Bitcoin, it's good if something breaks. Something has to give in order for the Fed to be able to do something in a big way — for example, turn on the printer bigly.
Now, of course, the Fed is very much constrained right now, because you have the new inflation numbers coming in and they're high — very, very high. So this is not easy for the Fed. The Fed needs a big reason to step in. A massive, massive reason. Could it be something like what we're seeing here? Possibly. So overall, we live in an upside-down world where bad news is actually good. If something bad happens to the economy, to the yield, or whatever, it's actually good for risk assets because it means we will be printing bigly.
But overall, if you look at the inflation numbers that have come in — it's too high. You have CPI inflation at the same level as it was in 2023. And as a reminder, 2022 and 2023 was the peak of inflation, when the Fed had to hike rates a lot. So all of this inflation that is now coming in is very concerning for the Fed. At the same time, you have the bond market breaking, like we just discussed. So something needs to happen.
CZ's "Super Cycle" Call and Bitcoin's Bear Trend
Now, it is interesting that as soon as CZ said "super cycle" yesterday, we dipped below $80K. So be careful — always be careful. You always have Arthur Hayes and CZ. As soon as those two start speaking about bull market or super cycle, it's not good. We normally dump. It's like: "me saying tweet super cycle, then dump another billion, dump another billion." Exactly. So we dipped below $80K yesterday. Now we're back above.
Overall on the big time frame, not too much has changed. It is a bear trend. You have a high, then a lower high, then a lower high. So overall we're still in a bear trend. But on the daily, let's see how it's looking. It is still bullish. The short-term trend is still okay. It's okay until we close below $76K. So there's a 5% margin here still. So so far so good. As long as it's bullish on the daily, you can still trade on the daily fantastically well.
Community Trading Gains
We do have our community profiting massively from what's happening right now in the market. It was some weeks ago that we showed you the gains from our community, but let me show some of them because a lot has been happening.
Number one is the stock longing season. I see so many members longing AMD, Intel, SanDisk — all of these semiconductor and memory companies that are now needed. Even Google. Johan here coming in with Google 42%, coming in with Intel, coming in with all kinds of stuff. Very, very good. Also Micron — a lot of gains. A lot of gains. You don't even need leverage. No leverage even needed in this case. Fantastic result.
Then Mooncat has been longing Venus, 43%. You have MU 4X, 163%. Fantastic performance. Bart — I see Bart posting gains very often. Very good. Green to lean. Trading Venus, trading Raydium. Fantastic returns. And again, a lot of these trades are short-term. When you look at the hourly, you don't have to be married to any of this. All of these screenshots are actually closed trades. It's not that anyone is marrying any assets here.
Also, big shout out to Crypto Crystal, who just got the book — "Espresso and Big Profits" — saying, "Thanks Ivan and Bullmania, our community is the best. Fast delivery too. No joke, I couldn't get through chapter one without shedding a tear." And guys, if you've been reading "Big Profits," if you have been reading the book, you know that chapter two really sets the stage. I explain my biggest loss, what happened. On an emotional level, you really understand the impact there and what really led me to the discovery of mechanical rules. The book literally explains everything.
ETF Outflows and Jane Street
So guys, on this note, welcome everyone who is watching live. We'll dig deeper into this market with the stocks, with Bitcoin, with all kinds of things.
Tom Lee is saying "crypto spring." Well, for him it's always crypto spring because he needs you to invest in his fund so he gets more AUM, because his fee is based on AUM. You're not going to buy ETH if you don't believe in it. So for him it's always spring. Don't worry, be happy.
Now guys, look here. We have some dumping happening. Jane Street has cut its Bitcoin ETF exposure by 71%. And maybe this is what we saw yesterday, because someone dumped a crapload of Bitcoin from the ETFs yesterday — $600 million outflow yesterday from Bitcoin. Holy macaroni. Then the day before, on the 12th, we saw $233 million outflow. Crazy. On the 8th of May, $145 million outflow too. So overall, the ETF is not really helping here.
We did see a few days of big inflow also — like these three days right here. But overall: outflow, outflow, outflow, outflow, outflow, outflow. Let's see the balance for the month of May. Not really positive. Anyway — massive outflow. We should see green numbers coming in should the price of Bitcoin keep rising, because in many cases this thing actually follows the price and doesn't lead the price. ETFs just follow the herd, as always. So the ETF currently is not helping at all.
If we can fight through this current bear trend and go into bull, we will likely have ETF helping every day. It's always momentum. When you're bearish, you have the curse — where even good news is bad, you dump even when it's good news. You have the curse where good things like the ETF that pumped us in the bull are now dumping us. We need to go into a bull trend, and then all of the things will be working for us. The cards will be stacked in our favor. Things become easier, everything is smoother, you have an oiled machine coming in.
Bitcoin vs. Stocks in Bear Market
Looking at the overall stock market — S&P bullish. Eventually there is going to be a pullback, and Bitcoin is not going to like it, because in a bear market, another curse we have: we don't follow the stocks to the upside, but we do follow to the downside. Bitcoin fell from all-time highs just like stocks topped out in Q4 and then had a dip. Bitcoin had a dip, and then stocks went to all-time high and pumped a lot — and Bitcoin did not do that. But should stocks have a bit of a dip, in a bear market there's a good chance that Bitcoin follows.
In a bear market, you have a poop sandwich after poop sandwich after poop sandwich. Do I want it to be bear? No. I want bull, guys. We all make a lot of money in the bull. Way more money in the bull. Way more attention on this industry, way more audience. But at the same time, we need to make money here. I need to be upfront with you. Right now we're bear. So we live in a world where each and every sandwich you see, you think it's Nutella, but it's not. It's not Nutella. I'm sorry. At some point it's going to transform into Nutella. Right now it is something else entirely in that sandwich.
Strategy (MicroStrategy) Capital Raising Analysis
Now, looking at some individual stocks. Strategy is now at a bit above $100. Let's see how much Saylor has raised. If we go to the dashboard — the dark blue line here shows you the volume when Strategy's preferred stock is above $100, meaning basically that all of that volume is Saylor selling new preferred stock, thus raising money.
Currently in May, he has raised $730 million, which is not bad. The problem is that if you compare to April, he raised like five times more. And he cannot raise — I think today is the last day he can raise, because tomorrow is the ex-dividend date. So it's going to go below $100 quite fast. So now is basically the last day for him to raise. If he's lucky, maybe he gets to $1 billion. Let's see.
But in comparison to last month — this week he raised $1.6 billion, then this week $1.2 billion. So $1.6 plus $1.2 is $2.8 billion, plus another $500 million. That's already above $3 billion — like $3.2, $3.3 billion. Then you have some more in March. So overall you see the decreasing in the raising, decreasing in the raising.
He will have to increase the dividend that he pays to preferred stock holders so that it snaps back to $100 faster. Because this time you see all of these white weeks — all of these weeks without any blue lines at the beginning of May — where the preferred stock is trading below $100, where he cannot raise, where he cannot sell new stock. He needs to ensure that from mid-May until mid-June, the demand is way higher so that it snaps back to $100 quicker. How can he do that? He needs to increase the dividend — maybe to 12%, maybe 15%. Likely they're going to take it 1% at a time. What is it now — 11%? 11.5%? Yeah, around 11%.
The thing is, it was lower before. They've been raising it quite consistently. Then it's been flat for a few months because he had a lot of demand in April and March. So I don't think he increased it in March or April because demand was high. But now that demand is lower, he may have to increase again. Because each and every raise you do, you also increase the liability — now you have to pay all this dividend, etc. And yes, technically he doesn't have to pay the dividend, he doesn't have to do anything technically. But if he doesn't, the whole thing — house of cards — starts to collapse. So practically, he has to pay the dividend now.
Altcoin Market Overview and Money Scanner
Moving on. Jane Street has been dumping a bit — not too good. Maybe they dump and it pumps, but the ETF outflow is heavy.
Looking at the overall market: Bitcoin plus 1.8% today, ETH plus 1.1%, BNB plus 1.3%. I get the flashbacks back to like good moon in crypto when we read it in bull market — it was like XRP plus 15%, Solana plus 20% on the day. Those days will come. They will come at some point. They're not here yet. They're not here in this room with us.
Let's look at the biggest seven-day movers. You have this BIDEL token on the money scanner — we sniped it very, very nicely. You discover it quite quickly using the money scanner because it gets alerted in real time. During the last few weeks we've had LAB up almost 3,000% since the bull flip a week ago. Sky AI since a month ago, 566%. Superfortune 338% since two months ago. Venice, of course, since four months ago since the bull trend flip, 300%. That's the power of the money scanner. You really see what's happening in real time. And even in these somewhat bearish times, you have pockets of overperformance, and you can capture those pockets absolutely if you have the good tools.
Here it is — B USD, 11X. Fantastic. Short-term, tight stop-loss. Tight stop-loss. In short, you have tight stop-loss and good risk management, then sky is the limit.
Ethereum Grid and Bear Market Psychology
Now, looking at the Ethereum fear and greed grid, we are at 48. We did become a bit greedy. This is another curse of the bear, guys. You have a bit of a pump — it doesn't even return that much. Now, for example, we dumped $65K from top to bottom. How much did we get back in this pump? We got back about $22K. So we got back a bit more than a third. But the curse of the bear is that already it hits greed. You're still — we just got back 30% of the loss — but everyone is already feeling greedy. So that's why it takes a bit of time to chew through. We need to chew through this bear. Just like a mouse needs to chew through a door to come to the other side, the same thing is with the market. The bottoms — you have to chew through. That's why normally they take time.
This very fast flash crash and then V-shaped recovery is very unlikely. Basically, it almost never happens. People said it was going to happen here. You remember back in October, we said to be risk-off on October 8th. Many people said that it was a flash crash and it was going to come back. And you see yourself — V-shaped recovery very unlikely. You have to chew, you have to chew, you have to chew. And now we're chewing. And as soon as we chew a bit too much, we enter greed, and then we have to cool off again and come back. So it's another one of these curses.
Bear Market Timeline and Recovery Outlook
Listen — we are now approximately halfway through. Since October 8th, we've been telling you to be risk-off. And normally it takes a year. We said normally it takes a year. Now we are six months through. So if we follow a normal bear, it's six more months. Most people didn't take it seriously when we said that in October. Now maybe some of them are starting to take it seriously when their altcoins are down 80–90%. But think about the same amount of time again. Summer is going to come, a bit of vacation, a bit of traveling — time is going to fly. Already, probably by the end of July or in August, we will see the green shoots of bullishness, just based on time. Time-based capitulation should be somewhere around there.
If we are still in August and the prices are still bearish, normally you can call it time-based capitulation. You have price-based capitulation and you have time-based capitulation. Price-based is in case we go super fast down — you really fall very quickly. Time-based would be that we're here in August and the 200-week moving average goes up like this and then we maybe meet it there. That's also fine, because then you have a good risk-reward. When it is at the 200 moving average, you have the best risk-reward and you don't waste time.
For example, right now Bitcoin is limping a bit, and you have the stock market running circles around it. The problem is when you are too eager, you don't have the patience to wait for the best risk-reward. You just wait half a year or a year in an asset which is getting completely run around. Stocks are running around it. So the money is best put in a bull trend, because that's where you have the most return. If you have something in a bear, the problem is you have a big opportunity cost. Whether it is Micron, whether it is SanDisk, whether it is Intel — in comparison to Bitcoin, the returns have been insane. Absolutely massive.
I actually saw Ran just tweeting that he's done with stocks. Well, exactly. If you're not in the correct bull trend, this is what happens. You're holding, it goes up, you're hoping it's going to go to all-time high. In reality, it's way better to be in bull trends. So guys, at some point, Bitcoin is also going to go into bull. That's going to be the big, big shift for us.
Fidelity Tokenized Fund and Onchain Yield
For now, the story is still the same. There are some important fundamental news. You have now Fidelity launching an AAA-rated tokenized fund via Chainlink. Fidelity has unveiled a highly rated and regulated on-chain yield product. So you can buy a token and get yield now on-chain with Fidelity. The product — the Fidelity USD Digital Liquidity Fund — is issued by the asset manager but leverages Signum Bank. I mean, what is this newspaper? I'm pretty sure it's Signum, not "Singum." At least read through your text, man. Hire proper journalists. Crazy.
Fear and Greed, Altcoin Season Index
Fear and greed is a bit of a curse, like we just discussed. Altcoin season — is altcoin season in this room with us? Not really. It's not really in this room with us now. 45 out of 100. Altcoins are not really mooning at all. They should have a "stock season" index. It is now stock season. It's not altcoin season. It is stock season.
There are some altcoins that have been doing well, like this B token just during the last week. But overall, there is no altcoin season. No altcoin season, nothing. And in fact, touching any altcoin now is very high risk. You have to put a stop-loss. You have to be super careful, because again, we're mainly bearish.
Claude AI and the Bitcoin Wallet Recovery Story
Now, Claude helps recover $395,000 in Bitcoin trapped on a computer for four years. This is an important piece of news I want to clarify, because this news blew up on Twitter — that Claude somehow hacked a wallet and helped a guy get his money back. It is not how it worked.
Basically, what happened is that a guy had his Bitcoin wallet, and as far as I understand, he had the seed phrase. Claude did not get the seed phrase. What happened was that the seed phrase was encrypted with a password. So he had the seed phrase, but that seed phrase was encrypted with a password. The result was that he could still not access the wallet because the private key was encrypted. So Claude basically tested a bunch of passwords and then found the password.
Did you need Claude to do it? No. There are many — I mean, this cracking, this brute-force cracking of a password, is kind of standard stuff. Claude cannot do anything magical. It cannot do anything magical. It could apply some simple cracking algorithm, which it did. As you can see here, it's like a collection of words — the guy had this password as a collection of words. So this basically made it — I don't want to say easy, but this is very, very standard stuff that has been possible before Claude. This is nothing unique to Claude.
Everyone who is saying that Claude hacked Bitcoin somehow — no. This is not at all what happened. Not at all. It is cracking a password. And cracking a password, if you don't have any rate limit on how often you can try — and in this case there is no rate limit, because literally you're just decrypting your own file on your own machine — you can try a million times per second if you want. It's not like you're trying to crack someone's Google account or some online password, where there's going to be a rate limit. The online service is not going to let you try infinite passwords. It's going to tell you, "Hey, you're blocked, try again in five hours." But if you have a file encrypted on your machine, there is no rate limit. It's just math. You just do math, trying to decrypt it. And if you have a cracking algorithm running going nuts on it, it can easily do trillions per day, depending on your machine. You can put it in the cloud, you can have a big fat Amazon web server doing it or Google Cloud. It's a well-known thing. It's nothing in particular. But it got a lot of attention online, so I just wanted to clear it up.
Claude did not hack anyone's Bitcoin. It cannot hack. It cannot steal Bitcoin. If you forget your private key, Claude cannot help you. It cannot help you. If you have your private key encrypted by a password you forgot, then Claude could help you — but any cracking software could help you.
Live Q&A — Sui, Western L1 Altcoins, and Tron vs. BNB
Now, on this note, let's go to Q&A. We have a bit of a different crowd here because we are live streaming during an unusual time for us — about 12 hours later than usual, because we do see the demand. People saying, "Ivan, do an evening stream." Okay, so now we do an evening stream. Let's go to Q&A — questions, answers, debates, discussions. You can ask about anything, whether it is altcoins, whether it is news, whether it is anything.
Sui in the top 10 in the next bull market. I mean, it's not impossible. They have a team which is committed. They're building. They're trying different things. But here's the big but. I'm a bit concerned that they may become like Polkadot — which is that it is a Western team. When it comes to this L1 stuff, when it comes to making the token pump, I don't really trust a Western team as much.
Now, I always trust the trend. Should Sui go bullish on the weekly trend? Fantastic. But the Westerners — they're the best at fundraising. They're the best. Whether it is all of the L2s — look at OP, such an intellectual project on ETH scaling. Look at Arbitrum. Look at Chainlink. Look at any kind of Western project — you think it's nice, it sounds like premium, it should be good tier one, it should have good fundamentals. Avalanche, Polkadot — you open the chart and it is terrible. It's such bad performance. It's crazy.
And unfortunately, the way Sui looks right now, it is not good. It is big kaka right now. Listen, if they go to bull trend, I mean, I don't care. But just in comparison to Tron — you see yourself. This is Tron. And you saw the chart we just looked at. I mean, this is Tron. People say Tron is a scam, people say Tron is run by some Chinese scammer. I don't know, man. I look at BNB. Look at BNB. Not as good as Tron, but still — you see the trend. The trend is up. The trend is up and to the right. It did a big fat all-time high in 2021, then another big fat all-time high in 2025.
So again, I'm sure there are many scams in Asia also, obviously. But when it comes to tier one stuff, my experience has been that a lot of this Western stuff is a bit kaka. Why? Because they have the financial markets open to them. So for them, they have a choice: do they pump the stock, try to build value in the stock, maybe raise a private round, etc. — or do they pump the token? And in many cases, they want to do both. So they pump the token as long as that works, as long as they can get away with it, and then they switch to stock and make a business.
Ripple is the best at that. They have the token and then they have the business. The business gets the revenue. XRP — you can say their business model is selling the coin. But they've been quite okay at keeping it okay. But there's always a battle between the equity holders and the token holders. And equity holders see, in most cases, token holders as a plebe that's going to hodl the crap — basically as a dumbo. I think in Asia it's just a bit different, where if you have a token, you have a token. It's in the wallet. You have a token. If you have equity, you have it today, tomorrow someone takes it. But a token is a token. So maybe it's a bit of a different mindset.
In general, can Sui do it? It's hard to say. They can easily do a Polkadot and not do anything. I don't think they have anything special in that regard. But the chart looks very bad. Should they go bull, then it's different. But now, I cannot tell you anything.
Actually, on the daily — on the daily, guys — they are now in a bull trend, but they are fighting. Let's see what's going to happen here. I would wait for them to go above the 200-day moving average, because they're now battling it. Should they go above the 200-day moving average, then on the daily you could make the case that it's quite a good setup, because it's the first time they've been bullish since October. And if they can also get above the 200-day moving average, it's quite good. I mean, Bitcoin cannot get above the 200-day moving average right now. So listen, anything is possible. But it also means they can become like Polkadot, they can become like Avalanche. It's also possible. Just follow the trend. If the trend is bull, you're bull.
To try to analyze fundamentals is just not possible. Tell me why fundamentally Avalanche has not been doing well. Why? It's so good — all the subnets, all the subnets. Why is it so crappy? Why? Tell me fundamentally — what did they have to build? If it's all about tech, as a computer scientist I tell you it's not about tech. But okay, people say such great tech. Fundamentally, tell me — what button should the developer in the basement have clicked in order for Avalanche to pump? Tell me. Because no one can tell me. No one can tell me. It's not about fundamentals. It's pumpamentals. You've got to invite pumpamentals into your life.
Q&A — Portfolio Allocation, Altcoin Picks, and Trading Mechanics
To get the new bull market, to get the normies back in, they have to believe in some fundamental. It's going to be like that.
What's your adrenaline pump apart from coffee? Maybe working out. Today I had a nice workout, so I'm actually a bit pumped today. Way more pumped. Fantastic.
Did you close Toncoin? Yes, Ton is closed. Ton started to dump like planes. The stop-loss hit. We're out. We did that as a former trade during the live stream. I wanted to do it on the live, but since then the stop-loss hit and we're out. That's why — it's an example of what happens currently when Bitcoin is in a bear trend. We're not playing around. It dumps, stop-loss out, out we go. We're not giving any benefit of the doubt at all.
Ivan, how will you separate your portfolio percentage in the next bull cycle? Let's analyze it later. Currently it's too early to analyze. There are no weekly bull trends. I think it depends a bit on what enters bull trend first. Bitcoin has to enter bull trend. What I will start with is having 50% Bitcoin, and then we're going to see what happens with the other bull flips. Is it going to go bull on the weekly? Is it going to be new stuff? Let's see. It's a bit too early. I think it depends what else flips bullish. Let's say Bitcoin flips bullish — what else? Because if everything is bearish when Bitcoin flips bullish, we don't have too much to choose from. So it depends what kind of choice we have. We choose from what we have.
Price pump is real fundamental. To some extent, yes. Price pump is fundamental. You need to have both. But price pump is most important. If there is no price pump, there's no point. You need to have both. Doge just has price historically. A dog with a hat — you can easily make it one cycle with just price. Easily. But for more cycles, there needs to be something else. You can have community as a fundamental. But it does not always work. Ask the Hexicans. They have community. It depends on the supply, depends on who holds the supply, who dumps, how much sell pressure, etc.
Any chains coming out for the next bull run? That's the beauty — we don't know. The beauty is we don't know. I mean, there are some like Mega ETH, Monad, but the beauty is we don't know, because many projects are not launching now. They're going to be launching in the next bull. So currently there's no way to say which ones are going to be great, because many projects have not come out. Probably the best performing project of the next bull market has not come out yet. It's going to come out as soon as we see some bullishness in the odds. Many teams are announcing and raising capital, because if you announce now and try to raise capital, no one's going to give you money. No one's going to give you any money.
Fetch.ai and Bittensor Chart Analysis
Fetch and Tau — let's check. Fetch.ai — is anyone actually using their stuff? Let me know, guys. But okay, let's check the price. See, they are bullish. But they need to get above the 200-day moving average. Technically bullish, but needs to get above the 200-day. They're struggling with the 200-day right now. But on the daily, they're bullish for the first time since September. So they went bearish here, lost 80%. Holy crap. Now they're bullish for the first time since then. So overall there's strength. There's something. There's strength.
But let's see if they can get a candle like this. Should they get a candle like that, I think it's a good risk-reward. Then potentially we can see if it can run back to this level. The good thing is that it's not too much resistance either — it just dropped straight down. So riding back should be easy once it comes back. But should Bitcoin dump, guys, all of this is going to dump also.
And then you said Tau — Bittensor. Let's see. Bittensor is a boring asset, guys. It's choppy as hell. I wouldn't touch it now. I wouldn't touch it at all. It's too choppy. Let's see some other exchange. Mexc normally has longer history. No, it's too choppy, guys. There's no trend. It's too choppy. I wouldn't touch it currently the way it is. You see yourself — it's like ridiculous. It's just chop, chop, chop, chop, chop, chop, chop, chop, chop. You're going to get chopped out.
Don't choose things like this where there's no easy mode. You want easy mode where it's either a big pump ahead or a big dump — where you're at massive support or massive resistance. Bittensor hasn't gone anywhere since 2024. Like the same price as the first weeks basically of this pump.
ETH is similar, by the way. ETH is also not an easy chart. It's too choppy. It's sideways since like 2020 or something. It's ridiculous. They also need to have a breakout. Something has to happen here. This one is very tough to trade — you see yourself. Both bulls and bears get wrecked. I wouldn't touch it until it starts going in some direction. Of course, you can always trade this on a lower time frame. But on the 12-hour — no, it's too much chop. This one is not for me. Maybe if you love it fundamentally, great. For me personally, I need something to work with. I have nothing to work with here. It's too much chop. I don't want to make my life hard. I don't want another problem. The problem is you enter an asset which is too choppy — the market maker is doing a lot of this chop. You need it to trend. You need something that has price discovery or whatever. It needs to do something. It needs to have something.
Hyperliquid Chart Analysis
Hyperliquid — let's check Hyperliquid. See, this is way better. You have trend down, trend up. Now we're on the 12-hour. This is way better here. They don't have some shady market maker doing stuff. It's trend down, trend up. That's it. That's it. Very good.
So on the 12-hour it's trending up fantastically well. Looking at the daily — trend down, trend up. The same thing, trending up. And looking on the weekly — also bull. So you have now weekly, daily, 12-hour all bullish. Looking good. Looking good. Listen, when it's looking good, it means that you have cards stacked in your favor. You can still get wrecked, so always set a stop-loss. It's all about mechanical rules. The tool is one thing — you have the tool, it's bullish. You saw the 12-hour, you saw the daily, bull trend is there. But then you need mechanical rules — an actual system for how to enter, how to set stop-loss, how to take profit, etc. What happens if you enter and it dumps? It can do that even in a bull trend sometimes. It's all probability. So you need mechanical rules.
The Hexicans will always be the best. Yeah, I mean, that's what I'm saying. You can have the best community and still have a very bad chart. Extremely bad chart. Community could be good, but it depends on what you do with it, depends on what kind of sell pressure there is. Sometimes the sell pressure is just massive. When you have massive sell pressure, you can have the best community and it's still not going to do too much. Someone is selling. If you have a great community but the chart is down, you have to ask yourself — who the hell is dumping? The community is so great, so why is it going down? Why? Why is it dumping? The chart doesn't go down by itself. Someone is clicking sell. Such a great community. Okay. Why is it dumping? Okay.
Anyway, Hyperliquid — we checked it out. That's very good.
We are at 43 minutes. I think it's a good time now. It's a good length of the stream, guys. Thanks a lot for being here. Thanks a lot for all of the great questions and great discussions.