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BITCOIN: BEWARE!!!!!! BIG SHIFT HAPPENING... | Ivan on Tech Transcript

Polished transcript · Ivan on Tech · 25 Jun 2026 · @maverick

Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's drop below the 200-week moving average and broader crypto and tech market conditions

Solo market commentary by Ivan (Ivan on Tech) covering Bitcoin's technical breakdown, altcoin conditions, AI stocks, Binance's EU licensing crisis, and a Cardano wallet exploit.

Summary

Ivan on Tech delivers a solo live stream covering Bitcoin's break below the 200-week moving average, which he views as a significant technical signal likely leading to further downside into the $40,000–$50,000 range before a eventual bottom. He argues that market sentiment has not yet reached full apathy — a condition he considers necessary for a genuine bull market to begin — and expects that bottom to form sometime around late summer or early fall. He also covers Micron's blowout earnings as a positive signal for AI chip stocks, while flagging that consumer-facing AI companies like Google and Amazon are already in bear trends, raising questions about whether AI investment can be monetized at scale. Additionally, he reports on Binance's last-minute denial of a MiCA license in Greece, which he attributes to pressure from ECB president Christine Lagard, and covers a $20 million exploit of the Yoroi/Second wallet on Cardano.

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin below the 200-week moving average is a historically significant breakdown. In the last bear market, Bitcoin bottomed approximately 30% below this level, which would imply a target in the $40,000–$50,000 range — a zone Ivan has been calling the buy zone for some time.
  • Market sentiment has not yet reached full apathy, which Ivan considers a prerequisite for a genuine bottom. Many bulls who have been wrong since October are still holding out hope, and Ivan argues they need to be "crushed slightly more" before capitulation occurs and a new cycle can begin.
  • Strategy (MicroStrategy) is under financial stress, with its dividend coverage reportedly dropping from over seven years to just 14 months and cash reserves falling 38% in 2026. Ivan views the stock as a high-risk, low-reward position and warns against treating it as a discounted Bitcoin proxy.
  • Micron's blowout earnings — revenue of $41 billion versus $36 billion expected, and adjusted EPS of $25 versus $21 expected — confirm strong demand for AI chips. Ivan sees chip makers (Micron, Nvidia, AMD, Marvel, Intel) as "shovel sellers" who benefit regardless of whether AI end products succeed commercially.
  • Consumer-facing AI companies are struggling, with Google (Gemini), Amazon, and Meta all in bear trends on their charts. Ivan raises the question of whether the massive AI capex buildout can be monetized at the end-user level, noting that Microsoft has already pulled back on AI developer tools due to excessive per-token costs.
  • Binance has been denied a MiCA license in Greece at the last minute, reportedly due to intervention by ECB president Christine Lagard. Ivan connects this to the ECB's agenda to launch a CBDC in Europe, arguing that blocking Binance removes roughly 50% of crypto liquidity in the EU in a single move.
  • The Yoroi wallet (rebranded as Second) on Cardano was exploited for $20 million due to a flaw in wallet generation software. Ivan notes this is a significant sum relative to Cardano's total ecosystem size and urges affected users to migrate funds.
  • AI as a use case remains genuinely bullish in Ivan's view — he highlights the release of an Unreal Engine MCP server that allows users to build video games by talking to Claude as an example of AI unlocking real creative utility, even as the investment economics remain unclear.
  • FULL TRANSCRIPT

    Bitcoin Breaks Below the 200-Week Moving Average

    Ivan: Welcome to another episode. Today we have big news for Bitcoin — massive news — because we're below the 200-week moving average. It is critical and likely going to lead to lower prices within the buy zone.

    By the way, let me know how the sound is, because as you know I'm temporarily in a bit of a new location, and the sound — whenever I switch I pull the cable. Let me know how the sound is. Check. Check. Check. We're good.

    Anyway, look here. Bitcoin is now below the 200-week moving average. This support has been monumental. Absolutely monumental. And this is also where we expect Bitcoin to bottom out — somewhere in this region. Last bear market, we bottomed out approximately 30% below it. And in this bull market, it could be very, very similar. I'm expecting us to find the bottom here in the coming month or so and then chop sideways until September, until October. Let's see when exactly — I don't know the future. But based on previous cycles and based on the psychology of the markets, where you need approximately a year to reset the psychology, you need to reset all of the emotions. A year is the time it takes for us to start a new cycle, for people to see that crypto is cheap yet again.

    Currently, many people still don't see crypto as cheap enough. They want even lower. But within the coming months we're going to reach a point where for most people Bitcoin is going to be so, so cheap — just in their mind. Especially after seeing all of the stocks and all of the AI stocks go absolutely parabolic. And many of the AI stocks are in a very, very crazy parabola. Micron is still pumping — it had monster revenue and monster earnings that they reported on. They're going to go to all-time high. And at some point these parabolas are going to break. Now we're still bullish on them because they are in a bull trend, but at some point they're going to break and capital rotation is going to be back into cheap assets — whatever the market perceives as cheap — and crypto is going to be perceived as extremely, extremely cheap in the coming months.

    But for now, what do we see? We see Bitcoin breaking down below the 200-week moving average. This is very, very big because normally when you see something like this it means acceleration down. So let's see if we accelerate to the 50s, if we accelerate into the 40s. Any of this would not surprise us. As you know, we've been speaking about the buy zone — the 40s, the 50s — for a very, very long time. So none of this would really surprise us. Alts are going to have another leg down. Most are going to have a big fat leg down if Bitcoin goes to the 40s and 50s. But at the end of the day we will come out stronger. This industry is going to come out stronger. You're going to have such a nice, fantastic bull run as we clear the remainder of this bear.

    Altcoin Check: Solana, ETH, Avalanche, Hyperliquid

    Looking at Solana — consolidating a bit, kind of wanting to take the next leg down into our fantastic buy zone right here in the 30s. Looking at ETH — ETH is still not doing too much. There are some bullish news with ETH: they fired a bunch of people from the foundation. Look here — 40% of the budget of the foundation is getting cut, is getting slashed. Personally, I love it. I don't like big foundations. Big foundation, paper pushing, not doing too much. I would rather they do something else and not have a big fat, ineffective foundation. If they were effective — if they were able to compete with Solana and other chains that are taking the lunch of ETH, literally taking all of the users, taking all of the activity and stealing it — and ETH cannot do anything. It just sits there. It's better that it's leaner, and then the market participants can figure things out without the foundation in the way it is right now.

    You need something else. You need a lean team that is controlled either by Vitalik or someone else who has a vision, because the problem is that if you're not Bitcoin, you need to have a vision. You need to be competitive. You need to deliver on stuff. You need to speak with DApps, speak with clients. For example, no one asked Uniswap if they wanted a billion L2s where they split all of their liquidity. On Solana it's very different — the developers of Solana speak all the time with the developers of the DApps. You need to have very, very tight communication. So it's better that the team is small — way better coordination — and they can actually go and compete, because ETH needs to compete.

    ETH sometimes thinks it's Bitcoin. The problem with ETH is that they thought they were Bitcoin — meaning, "Oh, it can be super decentralized, very slow decision-making process," and so on and so forth, and that somehow it would work out for them. Sadly, no. It's too early. It can still be killed by competitors. So that's ETH — still here in the bear trend. Maybe we'll find support here. We're not really trading ETH until the bull trend. If it loses this support it's likely going to go to around $1K, but it's just pumping and dumping within the bear trend.

    Looking at Avalanche — kind of a new all-time low, but this week is a bit green for Avalanche. There you go. But still a horrible, horrible chart.

    Let's look at Hyperliquid — still bullish, still consolidating around all-time highs. It could take the next leg up if Bitcoin can hold around this level here. If Bitcoin holds above $60K, Hyperliquid has a very nice chance to go to all-time high. Should Bitcoin now drop below $60K — which it did for a few hours to $58K — it's going to be very hard even for Hyperliquid.

    Market Sentiment and the Path to a Bottom

    So if I'm to summarize: I think this whole industry has another big fat leg down. Not too bad — maybe 30% down for Bitcoin, maybe 20%. If we go to the 50s, that's 20%. If we go to the 40s, that's 30%. In the last bear market we went down 30% below the 200-week moving average, and that's why we expect these levels. Ever since we entered the buy zone, we said we're likely going to go lower. But Bitcoin is cheap at all of these levels. $60K, $50K, $40K — DCAing in this green box is fantastic. So everything is according to plan with Bitcoin.

    Looking at sentiment — Bob Lucas coming out saying that sentiment is certainly at bear market lows for Bitcoin. People don't want to speak about Bitcoin. They don't want to hear about Bitcoin. They think that Bitcoin is dirt — especially if you compare it to AI. AI is doing so well and Bitcoin is this dirt in your portfolio that you have to look at. People don't like Bitcoin, unfortunately. That condition can persist for some time. So now we just need to reach some kind of apathy. And for that we also need that next leg down. For a bull market to really start, people need to be fully apathetic — meaning that no one even wants to be angry at Bitcoin. They've already forgotten it.

    Right now we're still in the stage where the bulls who've been fully wrong since October are still trying to figure out: is it a bull or bear market? When they accept that it is a bear market — that's when we bottom. That's when we go up. But for now the problem is the bulls are still too bullish. They hope that we're going to bottom out here at $60K and go up. They need to be crushed slightly more. And actually we're also becoming bullish because we can see that the bear market is ending. But overall, for many people the realization that we are in the bear hasn't come yet. We're down 50-plus percent, alts down 80%, but some people are still in la-la land. Once they give up — which is likely going to happen with another leg down — imagine being bullish from $120K all the way down to $60K and still somehow bullish, and then bam — $40K. They're going to be crushed.

    For us it's the opposite, because we've been bearish since October. So now we start to become a bit bullish. For us it's like super early bull days. We are just going to get more and more bullish the lower we go. We're just going to get more and more excited the lower we go. We are fully flipped and we've been playing it in the correct way. And we're the minority.

    Bob Lucas says we're getting closer for sure. A little more patience. We're in the early window, still favoring end of summer, early fall. Exactly — I think that's in line with what we're saying as well. Most of the biggest companies in our industry are down 70% in a year, yet some people on the timeline still try to say that we're not deep in the bear market.

    Strategy (MicroStrategy) Under Financial Pressure

    Looking at CryptoQuant — this company is saying that Strategy needs to stop buying Bitcoin and rebuild cash reserves. The firm's dividend coverage has dropped from 7-plus years to just 14 months, while cash reserves fell 38% in 2026. With Strategy, it's going to be very interesting what's going to happen.

    Looking at Strategy — something is getting stretched here. Something is getting stretched. How is he going to get it to $100? He has about three weeks until the next ex-dividend date, but the markets are losing trust. It's stretched to the downside. You are supposed to get an 11% yield and you just lost 20%.

    We've been saying this, we've been warning. There's no free lunch. There's no free yield. You cannot do magic. There's no infinite money glitch. And the reason I keep repeating that we've been correct is because it's crazy how many people fall for it over and over again in different cycles, in different iterations of the same pitch — that you put in money and you get more money for doing nothing. The only thing where it works is the US Treasury. There you can get whatever — 5% — and that's it. Everything else, there's no free lunch. There's very, very little free lunch.

    MicroStrategy is going to new lows. The reason it's dropping, by the way, is that Saylor is selling MicroStrategy stock — selling MSTR stock — to get the dividend money, to get the cash reserves for the STRK dividends. They need to have reserves to pay the existing dividend, which is also a question — how much they can pay. And then imagine they increase the dividend. Holy crap.

    For me, I stay away. I don't see it as a discount. I see it as super high risk, low reward. I'm staying out. If you are playing this, let us know in the comment section. It could come back — I just don't trust the house of cards. It's a big fat house of cards.

    Someone is saying: "No bottom, no bottom until Saylor sells a few billion into a huge V-bottom recovery." Wouldn't that be crazy? We have a nice fall to the 40s–50s. Saylor says, "Okay, we need to raise a lot of money for the dividend," and that's when the bottom is and when the strength is. Let's see.

    I think if we are to see something like this, I would be extremely, extremely bullish. We go to the 40s–50s in a quite fast fashion and then we're just sideways — let's see — until somewhere around September–October. And then what's going to be very important is a powerful move up. We need power to the upside. We don't want a slow, slow grind, because when you have that, in many cases it's just consolidation before the next leg down. You want a big fat thrust to the upside, just like the last bull market. When you see a candle like that, you know we're back — big time. And then the bull trend happens.

    As you can see, we're also within the buy zone. Not super low within the buy zone, but still around the 20s, then went into the 40s–60s, and then we came back in a very, very nice way. So let's see what's going to happen. But I think that now is the time to be more bull than bear, while still expecting a bit cheaper price — which is also very bullish because it's a discount. It's a very, very nice discount.

    Micron Earnings and the AI Stock Landscape

    Also, during the last few days we did see a bit of a sell-off in stocks, but everything came back after Micron reported big fat earnings. You look at the last few days — you had the drop in NASDAQ, and then South Korea dropped a lot. It was crazy. Then Micron came with big earnings and bam — South Korea pumped again. It was a bit of a pump and dump. Asian markets are back again.

    Looks like Micron earnings may have just saved the entire memory stock bull run. Micron had revenue of $41 billion versus $36 billion expected. Adjusted earnings per share of $25 versus $21 expected. Gross margin of 84% — up from 37.7%. This is why people say "bubble, bubble." I don't really care whether it's a bubble or not. We just ride the trend, because we simply don't know the information until it comes out. It is very strong info. There is a lot of demand for all of these chips and you can see the kind of business they have. It's pure fundamentals. So it's very different from the dot-com bubble — your grandma's bubble did not have this kind of gross margin or earnings per share or revenue. But the problem is you don't know it until you know it. Before the information is revealed, it could be a bubble or it can be real. But the trend is telling you it's bullish. So you don't question too much. And now you have confirmation that this is also fundamentals — not only pump, also a bit of fundamentals.

    Now, the problem is going to be that eventually someone should use these chips. Micron produces chips, Nvidia produces chips. Who is buying them? The big tech is buying them — those that are creating all of these AI data centers. What do they do? They do AI models. Who's buying AI models? This is the big question: can you monetize the end product? Because what we're seeing now is still the investment stage — the buildout, this massive capex buildout. A lot of investment is going into AI. Micron is selling shovels. They don't care if you use ChatGPT or Gemini. Micron sells the shovel. That's it. Nvidia sells the shovel. That's it. They're good. But the problem is going to be all of the actual operators of AI.

    Look here — Google goes bear. Gemini. Where's Gemini? No one wants Gemini. Gemini cannot save Google from going bear. And this is the risk for the entire stock market — yes, there's a lot of investment in chips, and most of these chip stocks are up, up, up. Micron up, up. The buildout is massive. Investment in AI is massive. So companies selling shovels are still in a strong uptrend. Companies selling the actual product that the shovel produces — I don't know. Google is down, it's in a bear. It just entered a bear. Could be a short bear, but something to keep an eye on.

    Meta — using AI for ads, using AI for many things. What else? AI, Llama. Where is Llama? No one knows. Amazon — down, bear. So all of these consumer-facing AI companies are not doing too well. Tesla — still bull but very weak bull. And SpaceX with xAI and everything is smashed deeper into bear.

    So the conclusion here is: just follow the damn trend. To analyze this on the fundamental level — when the capex expansion is going to stop, when the revenue into Micron is going to stop because they cannot sell the actual end UI and interface for all these AIs because no one is buying them — we never know when it's going to happen. And I love AI. I'm not an AI skeptic. I use AI every day. The question is just how much are people going to pay for it versus the investments, because the investments are crazy. I'm not doubting that AI is useful. I use AI every day. You probably use AI every day — vibe coding, asking it things, chatting with it, analyzing documents. It's great. But we also see less and less use of AI in enterprise.

    Microsoft just removed all of their AI for developers. Before, they had this rule: just use AI as much as possible. The cost came out so big because of per-token billing that they had to turn it off. They said, "Listen, it's too expensive." The same thing with many other companies — they're also turning off AI because it's too expensive. And that's the big economic question: does it make sense? Does this much investment make sense with this much revenue? I honestly don't know. But we may get surprised. We just follow the damn trend. All we have to do is follow the damn trend. The equation is too complex — and also complex by design. We don't even know how all of these AI deals are getting done. Instead of buying chips, they do a deal where they invest in the company, give you debt, but then you invest back. It's a lot of creative accounting. I have no clue really. But I know exactly that if it's bull, it keeps pumping.

    No one has a clue about the actual economics and mechanics behind AI. It's too complex. But still, we can profit from the chart. And the chart is green. Intel — just bullish. Marvel — just bullish. AMD — just bullish. All of these things that actually do the chip, they're bullish. But those that actually sell the AI — let's see to what extent people are going to use it.

    Binance Denied MiCA License in Greece

    There is a bit of an issue with Binance. Binance is shutting down in Europe. You have this drama with Greece. Apparently Binance applied for MiCA in Greece, and in five days they cannot serve EU clients because they don't have MiCA.

    Basically, according to Ran, Greece said in the beginning that they love Binance. Greece came and said, "Look, we love Binance. Let's go." Because it would mean 200 million a year in tax revenue as well as 100-plus good jobs. The application took over a year, and in a recent meeting the regulators in Greece indicated that Binance had fulfilled all obligations. Less than one month before MiCA is being implemented, out of nowhere, Greece suddenly and mysteriously indicated that Binance wasn't getting the license.

    Why? Apparently it is Christine Lagarde. Rumors go that she personally got involved here and basically denied the license. Greece has been struggling and needs the support of the European Central Bank, which is headed by Christine Lagarde. The ECB has an agenda to launch a CBDC in Europe, and the easiest way to do it is to kill 50% of crypto liquidity with one blow — just stop Binance at the last minute. Greece is powerless here because they are reliant on ECB funding.

    So what can Binance do? They need to find another regulator. Normally Cyprus has been a very big country for all of these applications, but for some reason it stopped being that a few years back. I believe Binance was regulated in Cyprus. But yeah, not anymore. And Greece won't allow them. Malta was big before for all the crypto stuff. But see, this is the problem — when you are friendly to crypto as a country, you have so many scammers. You remember Malta was so friendly, but then all of the ponzis registered there and it became very bad politically. So they just removed. Now I don't hear anything Malta in crypto. Malta is probably now the worst thing for crypto — that's just my feeling. I don't have firsthand experience, but you just don't hear it. Five years ago everything was, "Oh, we got Malta license. We're going to do Malta license." Now — gone. Why did they go to Greece? Why not Malta? Likely because Malta is not that friendly anymore. You remember a few years ago Estonia — everyone was like, "Oh, we love Estonia license. We have Estonia license." Now — not anymore. Probably because too many scammers came and the country said, "What the hell is this? We cannot be openly pro-crypto because it attracts the worst."

    Sadly, it is like that. So now Binance went to Greece, got rug-pulled by Greece. And now I hear they're going to go to France. France doesn't sound like a great place, but maybe it is — I hear Swissborg got their license from France. So maybe France is welcoming. Let's see. But it's a bit of a problem with licenses. And if you use Binance and you are in the EU, your account will basically stop working in five days on the first. I think you'll still be able to withdraw, but you cannot trade as far as I know.

    Ripple and AI Gaming

    Moving on — Ripple. If you are in Ripple, let me know if you're still holding it. They have a stablecoin, RLUSD, and it officially got approved for use in Japan. So next time you go to Japan, let's see if you can find somewhere to spend it.

    And finally, a bit of AI. Here's where I'm bullish — like, I'm bullish AI as a use case. If they can make this in a nice way: basically an Unreal Engine MCP server, which is an interface for AI so that AI can instruct Unreal Engine what to do. It got released last week. And you can now build entire video games just by talking to Claude. If you are a complete beginner with no game dev experience, you could probably make something with Unreal Engine with AI. This is the bullish side of AI — the use cases it unlocks are fantastic.

    Q&A

    Ivan: Swissborg's license is from France, from what I've seen people discussing in the comment section. You need to have a European country giving you the license. You cannot have Switzerland — Switzerland is non-EU. So everyone who wants to operate in the EU needs to go to an EU country, get the license, and then that license works in all EU countries. Which also means: okay, Greece doesn't like you, you can go somewhere else, you can find some other one that maybe will like you. Let's see how they figure it out.

    Let's check some prices before we go to Q&A. We have AVA up a bit — 11% on the weekly. Jupiter up a bit — 23% on the weekly. LAB up a bit — 17%. Be careful with this volatility, it's a bit of a weird pump and dump, but it's up today. Morpho is climbing — nice, 61%. Morpho is used by many exchanges. Kraken is using Morpho for stablecoin yield and stuff like that. Nothing too crazy. Looking at the weekly — Dex, Jupiter, LAB. Nothing really has happened in the last few days.

    Someone asks about Cookie Pro and price target. I'm bullish Cookie as a product. It's very nice, especially with the recent AI push. The price though — the price is the price. It's a bit disconnected from the product. But when it flips bull, pay attention, because the team is working, the team is here, the team is shipping. The team is very, very serious — I know that firsthand because I use their AI now to check what's happening with the markets. It's very good. Now with the price — price is the price, it's a bit separate. So bearish, kind of going to all-time low every week, sadly. But as soon as it goes bull, Valhalla — I think it's going to be Valhalla because the team is still here in a big way and very serious and doing good stuff.

    Someone asks about the CBDC progress in Europe. I don't know. We already kind of have CBDC in the form of stablecoins because they can freeze them, they can do what they want. And for Europe — the stablecoin ship has sailed, they're not going to come back. No one does digital euro on-chain. Can they make a digital euro outside of banking? Maybe they can, but at the same time it's already CBDC in a way — if you have an issue with the government, they just freeze your bank accounts. So what's the difference?

    They can still do the main things. For example, if they want you to spend money, they have negative yield. I remember in 2020 when the EU had negative yield — at least for company accounts — you lost money. You put your money in the bank and then you lose money every day. My company account had that. They want you to spend, they want to stimulate the economy. So they can also do that with a CBDC. If they do some CBDC thing, what is the difference going to be? They can maybe automate a bit more. They can program it a bit more. They have more direct access. It's already kind of CBDC the way everything works.

    There is maybe a bit of upside. If I'm to look on the positive side — if there is a clear rule that you as a citizen have access to this system and you don't need a bank compliance officer rejecting you, that could be a potential benefit. The big problem now is that even if you have a legit business, if the bank does not like you for whatever reason, you have no bank. So if they do some kind of government digital currency, potentially it's going to be easier for some businesses. But all in all, I'm not seeing it as some dramatic thing. Everything is already very controlled. It's already CBDC. Instead, let's see how Zcash can grow and how Zcash is going to fit into the world of this over-surveillance, over-compliance by banking.

    Someone asks about renting versus buying property. I've done both. They have pros and cons, but for many reasons — especially if you want to be mobile and worldwide — renting is better. But for renting to be nice, you need to have money. You need to have enough money so that you can renovate without it burning you. The pleb when he rents is not going to renovate — it's not his place. If you have money and you rent something nice for five or six years, the money you spent renovating a bit is well worth it for the experience.

    I'm not a big fan of owning too much real estate. If I had to pick only one, I would just rent. If something happens in the country — some new law, something — you're out. You have no connection. You're out. For some people, if you want a bunch of custom things, custom everything, then maybe you need to buy. But unless you have a lot of money, I would just rent, because you need to be flexible. You need to make money. One way of not losing money is switching somewhere where you have a good tax situation, because it compounds a lot.

    For most people who want to acquire wealth, owning a big fat asset that is just draining you — which is real estate — I don't think it's that smart. Especially because with high interest rates, real estate is not really going up a lot anyway. It's not like 2010 to 2020 when it doubled every few years. Now it's not even going up that much. And I know many people, including myself, who have owned real estate in the past, rented it out, and actually lost on it.

    Sometimes people say, "Oh, when you rent, you just throw money out the window." Not necessarily. You have freedom. You can do what you want. If you want it a bit nicer, you can renovate. But again, it's about how much money you have. If you don't have enough, you may think it's not worth it. If you have enough to live nicer for five or six years and have freedom, it's worth it.

    When you are financially free and the house for you is not a big deal, it's more of a "nice to have" — then why not? You can own it. You don't have to rent it out. Another thing — people buy and say, "Oh, when I'm not there, I'm going to rent it to optimize." Okay, so you're going to have some dude in your bed. Once you don't have to optimize, it's just a nice thing. It's yours. You renovate how you want. Why not? If you need to leave the country fast, just sell it at a discount. You don't even care — you're just out anyway. So in that sense you could have both freedom and ownership. But if you need to optimize, if you really cannot afford it, if you take a big mortgage so you cannot even feel free — if you need to sell you cannot sell below your price because it's going to be a big problem for your finances — then it's different. Then I wouldn't do it.

    Someone asks about trusts for asset protection. Yes, but you should study it and really understand it. A revocable trust is not too much asset protection — there's no asset protection with a revocable trust. You can make it irrevocable, then it's real asset protection. But then yeah, it's irrevocable. You should speak to someone about it. There are two reasons: asset protection and generational planning.

    For asset protection, a revocable trust is more or less meaningless nowadays because there's a lot of transparency. All your banks, your government — everyone will know if they want that you have it, because of all the AML factors, all the different CRS regulations. So everyone knows that you have a trust. Before — let's say 30 years ago — you could have a revocable trust and if people couldn't find it, they couldn't come after it. But that was before. Now everyone knows you have it, so if it is revocable, it's revocable — it's not protected.

    Irrevocable is the only thing that works nowadays in my understanding, because okay, they see it, but it's still irrevocable — it's not your money anymore. If you want to leave something for your kids, make it irrevocable, only for your kids, and you cannot take it back. Then that's asset protection. That works. But it's a whole rabbit hole. Speak to someone who actually works with it.

    Liechtenstein has foundations rather than trusts. A foundation is like a trust but more formal — it's a legal entity. A trust itself is not a legal entity. It's more of a common law invention. In English-speaking countries you have trusts — it's just an agreement between you and the trustee. Liechtenstein is civil law, European civil law. There you have foundations — actual legal entities. They need to have employees, a board, all kinds of stuff. It's less flexible and more expensive. For trust, people I know who choose tend to choose Jersey — flexible enough, and the protection with the firewall is there. But speak to a professional about it.

    For this European stuff — Jersey, Liechtenstein foundation — if you have less than about $5 million, don't even think about it. In the US maybe it's different because people have trusts for different reasons even with smaller amounts. But for a Liechtenstein foundation, if you have less than $5 million it doesn't make sense. It's going to be too expensive. Your return is going to be eaten.

    Cardano Wallet Exploit

    Let's see — Cardano got hacked. Let me check. Something happened there. A drain of $20 million. A Cardano ecosystem project has suffered a major exploit after a flaw in wallet generation software. Security firm Slow Mist says total damage is $20 million.

    So Cardano did not get hacked — it was a wallet that got hacked. It's the Yoroi wallet — one of the most well-known wallets on Cardano since the early days. I remember trying to use Cardano like five years ago and trying Yoroi. It's a Cardano native wallet. And apparently they rebranded to Second — I'm just now seeing that Yoroi became Second. So it was your wallet that got hacked. Imagine MetaMask got hacked but people said, "No, it wasn't Ethereum. It was MetaMask." It was Ethereum's biggest wallet, man.

    So I would say definitely this is an ADA hack because it's one of the biggest wallets. And by the way, Charles Hoskinson has a lot of money that he invests in healthcare stuff and everything — and why no official wallet from Cardano? What's the official Cardano wallet? They have this Yoroi thing that got drained. Lace wallet is apparently official, but I've never heard of it. I'm not too deep in Cardano.

    I should check if my dust that I have on Cardano — maybe it got hacked or something. I need to check. I did have stuff in Yoroi. It either was that or the other wallet, but for sure before I had Yoroi. Users have been urged to migrate funds. $20 million on Cardano is a lot — on ETH or Solana, $20 million is not a lot in terms of how much people have and how much people transfer. But on Cardano, it's like half of the TVL of the chain or something. It's a lot.

    Hopefully you guys are okay. I'm not sure I'm okay, but I didn't have too much anyway. I need to double-check if I got hacked. I didn't even know they rebranded to Second. Holy crap.


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