Bitcoin analyst Ivan on Tech argues the bull market is just beginning, dismissing short-term volatility and macro fears
Ivan on Tech delivers a solo Bitcoin market analysis, arguing that the current bull trend is in its earliest stages and that short-term dips, macro concerns, and bearish sentiment are all distractions from a multi-year opportunity.
Summary
Ivan on Tech presents a bullish case for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, arguing that the four-year cycle has restarted earlier than most analysts expected and that the majority of capital remains on the sidelines — making euphoria impossible at current prices. He references analyst Ben Cowen publicly admitting he was wrong about the cycle, calling it a major buy signal for the large audience following cycle-based analysis. Ivan addresses the spike in the 10-year Treasury yield, arguing that while it may cause short-term volatility, rising yields are a long-term bullish signal for Bitcoin as they reflect inflation fears and dollar debasement concerns. He also covers the failure of the US Stablecoin Clarity Act, blaming large banks for killing the legislation. In this context he critiques the EU's MiCA rules, which require stablecoins to hold 60% of reserves in commercial bank deposits — a structure he argues is inferior and dangerous compared to holding US Treasuries, and notes that similar bank-friendly pressures undermined the US bill. A segment on crypto gaming fraud rounds out the episode, with Ivan highlighting allegations against a named Web3 gaming founder accused of raising $80 million without delivering products.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin's current dip in context — is the bull trend still intact?
Ivan on Tech: Bitcoin is down a bit towards $83,000, and people are asking: what's happening? Are we still bullish? Are we still up, or did something happen and we're no longer up? Will we go down? Will this pump continue? In crypto, we're emotional. As soon as you have a bit of a dip, people get so emotional. We're back to prices we've never seen since Tuesday.
As you remember from the last stream, we told you very clearly that as long as the week closes above the previous high right here at $82,000, it means mega bullish. We just need to close above that previous high. And as you know, we are in a bull trend. So even if we go below it, it's still bullish. But if we close above it, it's mega bullish — mega, mega, mega bullish.
Yes, you do have a bit of a dump here from $87,000 towards $83,000. But as a reminder to everyone: keep the plan, stick to the plan. The plan is clear. Be bullish when it is a bull trend and be bearish when it is a bear trend.
The four-year cycle restarts — and why Ben Cowen's reversal matters
Also, as you know, we have a lot of capital now coming into crypto. A lot of capital. You see all the ETFs — they are bullish in terms of inflows. We have very high inflows into ETFs, and now more and more people are understanding that the four-year cycle is restarting. It restarted not according to schedule. Instead, it restarted way earlier — when we said it's time to be bullish, that's when it restarted.
Many people are now deploying back their money. They've been four-year cycling. And now that Ben said that he's wrong, it's so bullish. I don't agree that he's wrong, by the way. I think he's been very good. But the fact that he said, "Hey, I'm wrong, cycle is starting" — it's a big signal, a big fat signal for everyone to redeploy everything, to redeploy all of their assets.
And what other kind of signal do you have? Literally, the four-year cycle that most people are watching. Number two, you also have the halving. The halving is going to be in about one and a half years, but that's going to be another big catalyst that people watch. So all in all, I think now is the time to relax and really ride this bull trend in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin vs. altcoins — where the real wealth-building opportunity lies
Now, somewhere where you should not relax is if you want to grow your wealth, because let's be honest, Bitcoin alone will not create wealth for you in the same way. It can grow it a bit — it can go from $84,000 to maybe $500,000 — but to really get the nice asymmetric access towards the 10x, the 30x, of course you have to pay attention to alts.
So let Bitcoin be, and then focus on the big opportunities that are happening in the altcoin space. Because at the end of the day, if you really want to make a difference, Bitcoin now is more or less a wealth preservation mechanism. Still, it can do a lot for you if you already have some kind of wealth. Of course, if you have a few million and it goes from $80K to $500K, that's massive. If you have $10,000, it doesn't matter as much — you could have just gone to work without the risk. Instead, you have to focus on opportunities that are asymmetrical, where your risk is capped but the upside is uncapped.
Are we still bullish? Yes — and here's why it's not too late
The main concern people have is: Ivan, are we still bullish? And I can tell you yes, it is bullish. Don't be bearish. Be bullish. Instead, focus on maximizing the upside. That's very, very important. If you have a bit of volatility here to $82,000, $81,000, this and that — don't worry. And if we close the week above the previous high here in May, it would be such a nice fat confirmation.
On this note, let's talk about the targets. People are speaking about $200K Bitcoin, $10K ETH. Let's see if we can get there. Bloomberg has published a report titled "Bitcoin Back at $100K Is Suddenly Not So Outlandish." Even Bloomberg is writing about it. And most capital, again, is not deployed.
Some people are saying it's euphoria already, that we're so quickly at euphoria. Not at all — because again, most people are sidelined. You cannot have euphoria when everyone is sidelined. Literally just a few days ago, people thought that the four-year cycle was still going to do a lower low before Ben Cowen said it's over. So at the end of the day, most people are sidelined. When you have most people sidelined, euphoria cannot happen. Euphoria happens when no one is sidelined, when everyone is in — and then you can only go down in price because there are no new buyers.
Plan B's cycle scenario — $100K in October, $232K by 2027–2028
Look here — Plan B has woken up. He's saying he has a scenario for the second half of this cycle, looking at April 2024 to April 2028. He's saying $100K in October, a new all-time high before Christmas, and then 2027–2028 above $232K, which is the 4x of the bottom.
Now, his cycle — people count cycles differently. He starts his cycle in April. We don't start our cycle in April. We start our cycle when we go bull trend. That's when we start our cycle. But some people count cycles differently. Don't worry about the cycles — worry more about the execution.
But all in all, $100K in October — can it happen? It could absolutely happen. It's like five weeks away. You have five weeks to go to $100K. It's very, very possible. And now is the time to see the possibility. Now is not the time to be skeptical. Now is not the time to be reasonable. You should have been reasonable last October when I told you to be risk-off. Now is not the time to be reasonable. Now is the time to see even unreasonable targets and really get into this bullish mindset, bullish vibe, bullish wavelength. Respect the pump.
Most altcoins are just now turning bullish after years of decline
This is something we discussed already in the live stream — that yes, indeed, most altcoins are just now turning bullish. They've been dead. They've been destroyed. They're just now turning bullish.
Let's check in on some of them. For example, Fantom is right below the flip — it was above, now it's below. Keep an eye. ADA — actually, even ADA may go bull here. It was above, now it is below, but keep an eye. There are many of them that may soon go bull trend.
Let's check Polkadot. Even Polkadot — man, we've been laughing and joking about Polkadot, but guess what? If it goes bull trend, no more laughing and joking. Then it's time to be bullish. Polkadot goes bullish, I'm bullish. I'm bullish on freaking Polkadot, which has no users and only $26 in on-chain revenue per day. You can open a lemonade stand, be three years old, and sell more than Polkadot sells in a day. But still — if it's bullish, it's bullish. Because in a bull trend, everything is a memecoin. No fundamentals matter. As soon as it enters bull trend, everything becomes a memecoin, which means pump means pump.
The same thing with Sui. If it goes bull trend, okay, let's go. Fantastic. Then it's a memecoin, which means pump.
Someone asked about Avalanche. Let's check Avalanche quickly. Avalanche is confirmed bullish. Here you actually have confirmation of bullishness. Avalanche has become bullish.
All in all, guys — be bullish. Now it's time to be bullish.
Crypto Lark's data: 135 weeks to a new all-time high after reclaiming key Moving Averages
Crypto Lark is coming out saying the last time Bitcoin reclaimed both the 50 and the 200 weekly EMA, the bear market was so over. What came next? Bitcoin made a new all-time high approximately 135 weeks later. And now he speaks about a new cycle high — not just a new all-time high, but a new cycle high. For example, in this cycle, it was here at around $70K. So what he means is: new cycle high approximately 135 weeks later.
Here's another perspective for people asking, "Ivan, is it too late? Is the bull market over?" Take it easy. Number one, the bull market is just starting. And if you think about the length — it's going to be above 100 weeks. We discussed this a couple of streams ago. The last cycle was 147 weeks in a bull trend — 147 weeks in a green bull trend on our chart. This guy, big shout out to Crypto Lark, is counting in another way based on the Moving Averages. He says 135 weeks to all-time high.
The conclusion: no one is too late. How can you be too late if normally the bull cycle is approximately 150 weeks and we're now on week three? But people are asking, "Am I too late? Should I still buy? Did I miss it?" Amazing.
Bitcoin just made its first macro high since the bear market began.
The 10-year Treasury yield spike — what it means for Bitcoin
During the last 24 hours, one of the biggest discussions is the 10-year yield. People are asking: Ivan, does it mean the bull market is over? Because the 10-year yield is up.
Guys, please — each and every week there is some kind of micro announcement. Either the PPI is high, or the CPI. Last week I think it was PPI. You don't even remember because it was a thing for like 24 hours and then everyone forgot it. At the end of the day, none of it matters. We are in a bull trend. So don't worry about PPI, CPI, the yield here and there.
The yield is high — yes. At the same time, it doesn't affect us directly. But let's discuss what actually happened here, because long-term this is bullish for Bitcoin.
The fact that yields are high means there is a worry about inflation. When yields are so high, it means that investors are demanding a high return when they lend money to the US government. This indirectly means they're worried about inflation. Because if you lend someone money for 10 years and they give you, let's say, 5% per year interest, and you say, "Listen, 5% is too little — I need more interest because I'm a bit worried about your inflation. This 5% is measured in dollars. What's going to happen in 10 years? Maybe the dollar is going to be worth less. So just to be sure, give me more interest per year." More or less, that's the logic here.
So when the yield goes up, whether on the 10-year or on the 30-year, it means that the worry about inflation is higher. So indirectly, on a long-term perspective, it means you should get Bitcoin. That's why this analyst is saying this is unsustainable — buy Bitcoin.
Now, in the short term, it may mean that people dump Bitcoin temporarily to buy the bonds, because bonds pay so much in the short term. If you still have trust in the US system, you can now buy a bond that pays you 5% per year. It's quite good. Normally the stock market returns 8% on average, and here you have just a government bond paying you 5% without taking any risk with businesses, with stocks, with how sales are going. Just the government paying you 5%.
So all in all, when you have such a high interest rate, long-term it is a warning sign for the state of the economy and the state of the dollar. That's why: buy Bitcoin. This is all part of the debasement trade. When the yields are this high, you have the debasement trade.
Quick refresher: what is the 10-year yield? The 10-year yield is the interest the US government pays to investors to borrow money for 10 years. When that yield rises, bond prices fall. It is the benchmark risk-free rate that influences everything else — because why do any business if you can just get 5% from the government? Whatever you invest in now needs to beat this risk-free rate.
What triggered the spike? Inflation fears, PMI coming in hot, this and that. Fed Governor Michael Barr flagged rising inflation risks. Stronger activity plus rising input costs such as energy and oil means businesses may pass higher prices onto consumers. Markets immediately priced in that the Fed will have to stay tighter, maybe even raise rates again. That's why the stock market is down a bit, and crypto is down a bit — they're pricing in maybe higher rates.
For us, none of it really matters. But I know this is what people are speaking about. People are asking: Ivan, is the bull market over? Don't worry. Just think back to the last few weeks, the last few months. We had many announcements — with oil, with PPI, CPI — none of it mattered. We still pumped. We still went into bull trend. All of this is a bit secondary.
Should it be a real concern? Well, we would know. We would know if Bitcoin doesn't continue higher, doesn't do a higher high, maybe stalls out, maybe even goes into a bear trend at $60K. If Bitcoin went into a bear trend, you would not miss it. That's the beauty of mechanical rules. You would not miss if an asset goes to zero. You also will not miss if it goes to Valhalla — you ride it. Simple.
ETF inflows, Avalanche's 55% surge, and the stock market's internal crash
Moving on — ETF year-to-date flows have become bullish. We got so many inflows, maybe from the four-year cyclers, maybe from somewhere else. Very good, very nice inflows, and likely to continue because most people are sidelined.
Avalanche — as you remember, we just discussed the Avalanche chart a few minutes ago — surged 55% in just one week as the Bitwise Avalanche ETF recorded the second largest weekly inflow of the quarter. People are bullish, people are deploying. Good.
When you look at the stock market, people often ask whether to worry about how the overall index is performing. But here's an interesting view: stocks have already crashed inside the market. You see the NASDAQ and S&P going up and up because of AI, but when you actually look at what's happening inside, most companies don't do that well. So the stock market still can have so much upside if the other names start recovering.
Inside the market, there is a crash. That doesn't mean they can't crash more, but tons of well-known stocks are down 50%, 70%, or 90% from their highs. For example, Nike — how can it be down 84%? It's hard to see the overall market level because some big companies have become giants, offsetting the losses in the index. At the end of the day, we may just be in the beginning of the next big fat leg up for the stock market if those names start recovering. As soon as you have any kind of recovery in them, imagine what's going to happen to the broader market. Many companies that are generally regarded as excellent businesses may have been smashed — and they're going to be back.
So bullish until bear trend, and stocks are now very, very bullish.
CFTC moves on crypto regulation — and why the midterms matter
The CFTC is utilizing its existing statutory authorities to establish a crypto asset regulatory market structure. This is very important. Listen to this:
CFTC Official: "The agencies have a ton of existing statutory authority. When we got together over two years ago now as part of the president's working group on digital asset markets, we looked at statutory authorities as well as legislative authorities. And if you look at the report, we have a whole section in there talking about using our existing authorities. The president was prepared for it, we're prepared for it, and so it's go time. We're going to continue to ship rules to make sure that we're ready to go."
Go time. Whatever crypto needs, the CFTC is here shipping it.
Now, you will have a bit of an interesting time with the midterms. The midterm elections are in November 2026. Running up to the midterms, you may have at least in the stock market a bit of sideways movement, maybe a bit of anxiety, because we don't know what the result is going to be. Will we still have a pro-business administration after the midterms? Obviously the administration is going to stay, but how much power will they have if they don't have Congress? If they don't have everyone else on board, it's going to be tougher.
That's why, if the CFTC can pass a bunch of rules before the midterms for crypto, it would be very nice. Before the midterms, if they can start passing stuff so they don't get the other guys in there who are going to be anti-crypto — you may just have more anti-crypto people in all of these different chambers. So hopefully they can keep working until the next presidential election and there's no problem.
But the midterms — there is going to be a bit of shakiness in the market, a bit of volatility. I'm just warning you that if you have volatility at the end of October, it's expected. We may even see Bitcoin come down a bit. Let's say Bitcoin goes to $100K in October — maybe it comes back to $80,000–$85,000. It could do it. Because we need certainty. We need to know who is making the rules, whether the good crypto rules can be stopped or not.
Why the Stablecoin Clarity Act failed — and the problem with Mica's reserve rules
There's something very important we have to discuss, and that's the Clarity Act and why it failed. The White House is blaming the big banks for killing the Clarity Act. White House advisor Patrick Witt says opposition to the bill was a wildfire that was started by larger banks and ultimately spread to community banks. He says Trump was willing to divest his crypto or place it in a blind trust, calling it the most restrictive ethics provision ever agreed to by any president.
But here's where you have to look at MiCA and the EU. The EU has made their MiCA rules — rules for crypto such that if you are a stablecoin, you have to put 60% of your reserves into commercial bank deposits. This is why Tether is not regulated in the EU, because they refused. They said it's too dangerous, because the EU deposit insurance stops at €100,000. So if they put billions into a bank and that bank collapses, they're going to lose everything and just get €100,000 back.
So Tether is saying: we cannot put our customer funds in just banks. We're not going to put them in banks. Instead, they want to hold them in Treasuries and other assets not connected to a bank — like US Treasuries. The US would have to basically default for a US Treasury to be worthless. And if that happens, your stablecoin is worthless anyway. So it makes total logical sense that if you have a stablecoin, it should be connected to the country whose currency it is pegged to. You buy US Treasuries. That makes logical sense.
But MiCA in the EU is saying: no, you cannot have government debt. You cannot have a simple structure where you have a dollar stablecoin backed by US Treasuries. No — you have to put your trust in a commercial bank, which, if it collapses, you lose everything. That's the MiCA rules. It's such a bad rule. Imagine you have a stablecoin and everything hangs on commercial banks. If the commercial bank collapses, your stablecoin is worthless. You're basically connecting your stablecoin to the housing market, to mortgages — because that's what decides whether a commercial bank collapses or not, whether they have bad debt or good debt. Why connect your stablecoin to that when you can simply buy US Treasuries?
In the US, the Clarity Act tried to pass something similar, and they couldn't agree. The banks tried getting the same thing, and they couldn't agree. These rules are crazy in the EU. It's such a bad rule.
Crypto gaming fraud — Kagi calls out a Web3 gaming founder over $80 million raise
We discussed gaming yesterday and talked about Kagi, who is creating content and calling people out. Kagi has called out Ultra because they basically pivoted from their layer one into some B2B company. Kagi is saying the Ultra gaming platform is rugging and becoming B2B — one of the first gaming platforms in crypto.
He's also calling out another figure. Kagi is saying this crypto gaming founder raised $80 million and didn't deliver anything. Some people blame these failures on inexperience, but these are not inexperienced people. Quite the opposite — this person has a strong gaming background, having previously held roles at Gameloft, Ubisoft, and others. He knew exactly what he was doing.
Kagi's thread: Jeremy Horn is one of Web3's smoothest grifters — a thread on how a once-promising figure turned the Web3 dream into his personal ATM, and how he's still doing it.
Depending on who you ask, he's a visionary, a community builder, or a guy who never ships but always raises. Welcome to crypto. Never ship, always raise. Why not? In crypto, we allow it. Someone in a bull market posts a smart contract address and we just give them money. So there needs to be some responsibility taken by the investor as well.
Let's dig into the playbook. Move one: eternal stealth mode. Jeremy has a knack for launching projects that stay in stealth just long enough to raise funds or sell an NFT collection, then disappear. No road map, no timeline, just vibes.
Move two: community pivot. Whenever pressure builds to deliver, Jeremy pivots. "We're no longer building X, we're empowering creators." Suddenly it's not a product, it's a movement. Translation: no accountability.
Move three: coat-tail cloud. Jeremy constantly aligns himself with bigger names and successful DAOs, subtly implying partnerships — retweeting or implying something's going to happen.
Move four: liquidity exit. Multiple times, Jeremy launched tokens or NFTs with strong community hype, only to quietly offload assets at the peak and vanish from Discord.
Move five: playing the victim. When called out, Jeremy leans into the redemption arc. "I've made mistakes. Web3 is a learning journey." Cue the Medium post, a new profile picture, and the cycle begins again.
Big shout out to Kagi for the gaming coverage. Be careful, guys. With a bull market, you've got to be bullish, but also use your brain a bit. Bullish, but use the brain.
ICOs, scam protection, and why mechanical rules help even with bad projects
By the way, interesting point — if a project is fully new and they raise and there's no chart, you may have just given your money and there's nothing to sell. You didn't even get anything, so you cannot recover from that.
Should you buy a ticker — an actual thing with an actual chart — then of course, should it go into a bear trend, you're out. It could be that it's a bear market, or maybe the project is a scam and the insiders are cashing out. In any case, there's a bear trend and you're out. So you do cover all of the scenarios, including a potential scam, by exiting the bear trend.
The problem is, of course, the projects where you just buy something and it never starts trading. That's a big problem. I've done it a few times in my career. Last cycle I invested in several ICOs. I don't even know where they are. I don't even know what happened. ICOs were very bad last cycle. Very, very bad. And then they went to zero.
With ICOs you've got to be super careful. The risk-reward is still potentially good in some of them — some do well, most don't. But what has happened with some of them is the project fails, then the bear market happens, and they release some coin in the bear market so no one even has time to react. It's worth like nothing, and then they say, "Yeah, we delivered the coin, we delivered the tech. Goodbye." Coin delivered — check. Tech delivered — check. Coin doesn't pump, but it's bear market. Web3 is a learning journey. Maybe we're going to do a new project. Bye.
Final take — the bull market is not over
Someone asked about Bluzelle. I just remember them from like 2017 or something. They're quite old. I remember some guy from around that time — maybe he was at our conference or something — but I don't know what they do. If they haven't done anything for so long, what are they doing? Look at Solana, look at what has happened. So long and still nowhere to be seen. But I don't follow them too much.
Guys, let's keep it simple. Today is basically all about one question: is the bull market over? It's not over. That's it.