Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's position below the 200-week moving average and covers crypto and AI industry news
Ivan on Tech presents a solo market analysis stream covering Bitcoin's technical position, AI industry concerns, and various crypto project updates.
Summary
Ivan on Tech delivers a live stream covering Bitcoin's current position below the 200-week moving average, arguing there is a 70% probability of another leg down toward the $45,000–$50,000 range before a final cycle bottom. He characterizes the current bear market as one of the easiest he has seen due to its predictable structure, contrasting it with the more deceptive 2019 cycle. He also raises concerns about the true cost of AI services being hidden from consumers and enterprises, warning retail investors to be cautious around upcoming AI company IPOs. Additional topics include updates on Near Protocol, Morpho's funding round, prediction markets, the EU's Apple AI ruling, and a discussion of the upcoming SpaceX IPO, which Ivan says he will not be entering on day one.
Ivan also devotes substantial time to altcoin strategy, explaining that the current environment represents a 'short season' defined by a trifecta: Bitcoin bearish on the weekly, Bitcoin bearish on the daily, and individual altcoins also in bear trends. He argues that no altcoins — including Virtuals, Banker, or Base ecosystem tokens — should be touched until they establish bull trends. He criticizes Base's leadership under Jesse Pollak, arguing that Base has failed to embrace on-chain culture authentically and that new leadership is needed. He also addresses Kaspa at length, pushing back on claims of 'best proof of work,' arguing that hash power security and market-maker strategy — not technical superiority — drive price performance, and that no altcoin deserves attention until it establishes a bull trend.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Below the 200-Week Moving Average
Ivan on Tech: Welcome to another episode. As you can see right now, we have something very interesting on the Bitcoin chart. We are sitting below the 200-week moving average. As you know, we've been saying that this buy zone is likely where Bitcoin will find the bottom. We're now in the buy zone for approximately a week. This is a very important, cheap price for Bitcoin. Even though we expect lower, this is still cheap. And now, as you can see, we did have a bit of a bounce last week. We were above the 200-week moving average yesterday and the day before, and now it seems we're sliding back down.
Should we close the week below the 200-week moving average — holy crap — we may see another elevator down. Another nice, fantastic elevator down somewhere here, maybe in the middle of the buy zone: $50K, $45K. That may be the final bottom. Isn't it beautiful that we may have the final bottom basically within the coming weeks? It would be insane. It's almost too easy.
Why This Bear Market Has Been the Easiest
In this market, some people are complaining so much — "Oh, it's been a hard bear market, it's been so hard." I actually think it's probably the easiest bear market I've ever seen. Let me explain why. I just saw a guy yesterday who said this is the third time in a crypto bear but for some reason it's the hardest one. I don't understand what he means because I think it's the easiest.
Literally, we had the peak in Q4, right on schedule — just like your train may or may not run on schedule depending on where you are. Bitcoin has been right on time: Q4 right on time, and then it just had a lower high and another lower high. No fake-out where we do a fake higher high. That would be hard. If you want a hard bear market, look at 2019, where we actually created a higher high and then still went down quite a lot, almost to new cycle lows.
So overall, this market has been very easy. Of course, when you go through it day by day, you have all of the noise — people telling you a new bull market is coming, people telling you it's time to be bullish when it's just a lower high, people telling you don't miss the bull as if we created a bottom just three months after the last peak.
You also had Taiiki. Now, I love Taiiki. He's been fully wrong, but I still love Taiiki. He's maybe the only person I love who has been fully wrong, because he's humble — he took off his shirt, he said the bears were right, he was wrong, he got wrecked. Fully fair, fully square. But he also created many wrecked people. I know for a fact, speaking with people, that they got so excited because Taiiki was bullish. Taiiki explained his reasoning — he said that Tether was going to pump the market — and we just did not buy it. On this channel we've been saying that Tether isn't going to pump anything, especially because each and every month they have more and more trouble raising. We saw clearly last month that they barely raised anything.
Current Strategy: DCA vs. Waiting for the Bull Flip
The current situation is that we may have the final flash. If this is the final flash, fantastic. Then we have found the bottom, and then we need to grind sideways. We need to confirm the bottom. We need to ensure that people get a bit apathetic. We need to have a bit of a boring season. That's why I'm telling you October, Q4, September and October — likely we will have the nice, fantastic bottom.
Bob Lucas came out and said that the Bitcoin low could be in for this cycle. I think it's a bit unlikely. I agree with Bob on many things and I think he's fantastic, but the fact that we are now sliding down below the 200-week — I feel that the likelihood of us going a bit lower than that $58K low is quite big. Would it surprise me if this is the bottom and we don't go below it? It wouldn't surprise me, but I think it's more unlikely. I would say 30% that this is the bottom and 70% that we have another flash, because we're just now slicing below the 200-week. When you slide down below a significant moving average, a significant support, it is in most cases leading to a flush. Not always — everything is probabilistic — but I can tell you with 70% probability we're sliding lower and likely have another red candle somewhere toward the middle of the buy zone.
Bob Lucas is also saying he would argue strongly that it's going to need three to five months of sideways. Correct. I also agree with that.
So practically, what does this mean? You can DCA within the green zone. It's very cheap. Bitcoin at the 200-week moving average or below is cheap. Now, if you want maximum capital efficiency, wait for the bull flip, because when the weekly turns bullish, the likelihood of us skyrocketing fast is very big. If you want to DCA and maybe DCA for half a year in a downward market where we still find the bottom, long-term you're going to be fine in the green zone — you're buying at very good value. But just know that you may waste six months buying as it goes lower. You may be at a loss, and you won't have money to buy other things like AI stocks. Both approaches are fine. Here in the buy zone you will not go wrong. It's always good to buy at around the 200-week moving average.
Patience and Mechanical Rules
Moving on — we need to discuss the importance of not being impatient. The FE has been playing it very well and is very correct: you've got to be patient. The moment you stop chasing pumps and focus on strategy, everything changes. That's exactly why we have the mechanical rules. They tell you what to buy, when to buy, how to buy, when to sell, and how to sell. That's the full mechanical rules approach.
Tom Lee buying more ETH from Kraken — yeah, it's good that he can get his average price down. For Tom Lee, he's going to be okay no matter what. We've been speaking about ETH eventually coming back. At some point, if he can get the average price down, he's going to be okay. The problem is everyone who listened to Tom Lee in October, November, December and thought it was going to go to $60K — they're down a lot.
AI Costs, the Hidden Subsidy, and IPO Risks
Next, looking at what's happening with AI and everything, it's going to be quite an interesting time for the stock market. There is a bit of concern around all of this AI — the cost and the benefit, and also the cost of investing in all of the buildout of hundreds of billions. It's a big question. The unanswered question is: is the LLM really the path to AGI and all of the other use cases that AI is being spoken about? Is the LLM really the correct model? Because it's not really improving too much. If you look at LLMs during the last three years, it's kind of the same. Not too much has changed. Maybe it's a bit better at reasoning, but sometimes it's also a bit worse.
So the question is: we are now at a development in AI which is quite impressive, but it's still far away from the vision that everyone is painting. And is the LLM model really the solution — is it really how intelligence is going to be developed further? Because there are many differences between how our brain works and how LLMs work. Misunderstand me correctly here — I love LLMs. They have a massive use case. But it's not about that. It's about what are we investing trillions of dollars into, and will that technology get us there?
A clip from a discussion on this topic:
Clip guest: "The biggest thing by far is the financial side. The con is the fact that most people's experience of AI is unrealistic when it comes to the cost. You using ChatGPT — I believe the subscriptions will go away. I think we are just at the dawn of token-based billing, meaning that most people's use of Claude Code, for example, is based on a relatively unlimited model where you can burn between $8 and $135 for every dollar of your subscription in tokens. So most people's experience of AI is separate from — divorced from — the cost. And this was a deliberate con on the part of Sam Altman and Dario Amodei, because they both knew that if they actually made people pay on a per-million-token basis to use these things, they'd go, 'Wait, how much? What? Whoa. This thing messed up and I still had to pay.' And you're kind of seeing that already with the enterprise customers — the Ubers and Walmarts of the world — who are starting to have to pull back."
Ivan on Tech: You remember yesterday we discussed this — the cost of AI is crazy. It's always been crazy, but it has been hidden. It has been hidden from the consumer. It has been hidden from corporations because tokens were subsidized. As he says, you pay 10% of the actual cost. And now, just to be somehow sustainable, Anthropic and OpenAI have had to increase the cost for enterprise so they're not burning money. And what happened? Enterprise instantly cancelled contracts. Microsoft said they cannot use Claude Code — it's too expensive — while the average player is still believing that all of this AI they're using every day is so cheap.
At some point the prices will have to be hiked a lot. But before that happens, they go IPO — trillions and trillions and trillions. The team cashes out, the founder cashes out, and then of course they're still going to try to build it. Maybe they figure out a way to make it work. But the most important thing is that we need to be careful around these IPOs. That's my main message.
Long-term, maybe they figure out how to make it cheap. I'm not saying AI is bad — it's very good. But there is a specific event happening now with all of these big IPOs where the average player may think, "Holy crap, I use ChatGPT every day, let me invest. I use Claude every day, let me invest" — without knowing the true mathematics. What will likely happen is a fantastic pump in the initial days, maybe some initial IPO pump. Then as the reality sets in and we look at the numbers, we see that costs have to be increased a lot — dump — until they figure it out. And very likely they will figure something out. Just like Amazon: big pump, then the dump, and then they figured it out after the crash a few years later.
The main thing is to be careful around these IPOs. I'm personally just going to see how they're going to be trading on the daily, on the hourly, what the trends are. I'm not going to be piling in on day one because I need to see real supply and demand. You say you are worth two trillion — let's test it on the market. Is it really two trillion? Let's have real transactions taking place, supply and demand, some people selling, some people buying. I want to see a baseline established, because I know that I'm not an insider. If you think that by going into an IPO you're somehow early or an insider — sadly, guys, it's not how it is.
Clip guest: "Uber wasn't token-maxing in the way you might think. They burned through their entire annual token budget in four months, in the space of the first quarter. And then their COO Andrew McDonald said, 'It's getting hard to justify because you can't connect it to outcomes. We are years in — why are we all acting like this is going well? It isn't.' And so the experience of AI, the value judgments of AI, are all based on phony metrics, an outright con about the costs, and quite frankly a very weird cult of personality around the founders."
Ivan on Tech: And then you can watch further — it gets less focused on the real signal. So guys, if you've been doing any kind of AI development or AI science, I think deep down you know. I'm a computer scientist — part of my master's degree was in AI, back in 2017. Neural networks were already developed then. One thing you know for sure is that this thing does not think. It is probabilistic. It is completing the sentence, guessing the next token, which has a lot of value — the value is immense — but you have to compare it to what the hell the pleb is going to pay for it. You can have a good apartment and charge four times the price for it — it's still a good apartment. But if the price is 500% of what it should be, it's still a bad deal. You understand.
Industry Updates: Near Protocol, Morpho, Prediction Markets
Moving on. We have Hyperliquid coming to Near.com. If you haven't used Near.com, you should try it. It's basically the solution from Near where you can take any coin from different chains — they have support for 35-plus chains — and you can have privacy swaps between all of the different chains. So let's say you have a stablecoin on Solana and you want to move it to ETH — you can privately swap it in a very nice way. Near is part of the privacy narrative. And now they've also integrated Hyperliquid. So you can bridge assets privately across all of the chains, get them into Hyperliquid, and go nuts — 100x if you want — on Hyperliquid. Fantastic.
Near.com is becoming quite an interesting platform overall. You go to most L1 websites and it's just some vague information about how great they are. Near.com actually built a working product and you should try it. It's one of these few cases where you go to the website and you're like, wow — you can have privacy built-in swaps across different chains. Let's say you have a stablecoin on ETH and you want it in Zcash — you can do it via Near.com. Big shout out to Near because they've been pushing product-wise and they found something interesting in this privacy cross-chain bridge trading, and now perpetual trading also.
Prediction markets keep growing. You have Kalshi going to $1 billion. They actually added cash — it's a prediction market that now also added perpetuals, growing a lot. Kalshi in this case doesn't have a coin. Polymarket also doesn't have a coin, but potentially in the next cycle let's see if they release something.
Also speaking about prediction markets, there is this new thing — their website didn't really work at first, but they are creating tradable assets on top of prediction market events. This is becoming interesting. Let's see if the next bull market narrative is going to be around packaging prediction markets as tradable assets. You have the prediction markets, but these guys package them as a tradable asset and you can basically go long with leverage. Exactly how it works I'm still figuring out, but you can combine multiple Polymarket events into one trade across politics, crypto, sports, weather, and more. And I guess you can add leverage on top of it. What is crypto without leverage? We're going to be keeping an eye on that.
Crypto Clarity Act and EU vs. Apple on AI
Next, you have the Crypto Clarity Act potentially moving forward — potentially, potentially not. There's no clarity on clarity, guys. Every day someone is saying it's going to pass, but is it passing? It's not passing. Now you have top companies sending a joint letter urging Congress to include legal protections for developers in the Crypto Clarity Act. That would be very important — if you do a self-custodial thing, you're not going to be liable in case some bad actor connects their hardware wallet to your website and does something. That's quite good.
Meanwhile, we have news from the EU. Basically, in the EU, you cannot use any of the AI stuff that Apple just released because the EU forces Apple to enable other AI systems to be pluggable. For example, with Siri — you have an iPhone, and the EU is telling Apple, "Hey, instead of Siri, it should be possible for your users to plug in DeepSeek or other systems if they want to replace Siri." I think when politicians try to get into tech, it's always bad. Apple says they cannot allow it because they will not allow Chinese DeepSeek to get access to their clients' data. And as an Apple user, I don't want any other company to be integratable into my messages, my photos, everything. I don't want another company's tech integrated in a way that would allow DeepSeek or Google Gemini access to what I have. I have Apple for this reason — so that all of the Googles and Zuckerbergs and Chinese services do not touch what I have.
Apple basically said, "Okay, no AI then, because we cannot allow this data to come into the hands of other services." I agree. I'm team Apple here. Tim Cook — or Tim Apple as Trump calls him — is either already out as CEO or out soon. But I'm fully with Apple on this one. The EU has their own way of thinking. Let's see what's going to happen.
Solana Ecosystem: Stocks on Chain, Morpho Funding
Speaking about Solana, we have xStocks expanding on Solana — 133 token stocks and ETFs in one market view, basically adding more stocks to the system. Powered by Kraken, interestingly. Kraken is working with many DeFi companies in a very interesting way. You can trade stocks on Kraken via xStocks. Kraken also has an integration with Morpho, where you can put stablecoins or whatever you have in Kraken and get quite a nice yield with Morpho.
Morpho has now raised $175 million in capital from Paradigm, a16z, and Ribbit Capital. Ribbit is very much a traditional VC — not crypto-focused. So it's good to see capital coming back to crypto. It's one of the signals that the bull market is coming back when you see new raises, new announcements, projects launching and raising money. That's one of the signals that money is coming back to crypto. So yet again, we're saying that somewhere here we're going to find the bottom.
CZ says Bitcoin will not be dead for too long. He said it yesterday. He also said we may have a supercycle — it went from $120K to $60K. Big shout out to CZ. He's right. I agree.
Cookie AI Tool Demo for Crypto Research
There's one thing I wanted to experiment with — you remember Cookie from the last cycle? I just got access to their new AI system. This is AI made for crypto. I asked about Zcash — what's new — and it did quite a nice overview with dates, price, key events, and tweets. Obviously you can't really ask Claude or ChatGPT "Zcash, what's new" and get this kind of output. So yeah, let's see the Cookie chart — all of the old coins are doing very badly, but those that build will come back. Way too early to touch it now. But if you want AI focused on crypto, this is interesting.
Let me ask it about Render. What's happening with Render? Let's see what it does. And of course while it's thinking, we check the chart. Don't touch it, man. It's in a bear trend. Don't touch it. If you want to trade it short-term, you can see the daily trend is now going bearish. I wouldn't touch it now. It's not time for alts. Currently it's not time for alts. Most of them are bearish. Bitcoin itself is bearish. Bitcoin is bearish on the weekly. Bitcoin is bearish on the daily. So when you have this trifecta — Bitcoin bearish on the weekly in a bear market, Bitcoin bearish on the daily meaning we don't have a fake scam pump within a bear market, and your altcoin also has a bear trend — that's the shorting season. Short season meaning your altcoin is bearish, Bitcoin is bearish on the weekly, Bitcoin is bearish on the daily. When you have all three of these things, the bear market is in full effect.
So let's see what Cookie gives us on Render. Price action, May high, current decline — okay. Key events, partnerships, community milestones, market product launches. They did some new GPU thing. Partnership. They're going to go to Windows — global node on Windows OS. The use of AI like this is great. Top community tweets — you can also see who is shilling it or tweeting about it. Key takeaway: Dispersed is the biggest story, launching fifth, directly targeting 40% of global GPU. Very nice. But the price is in the gutter. Don't touch it now. Once it flips bullish, different story.
Altcoin Season Is Not Now — Short Season Is
Don't touch anything now. Alts — don't touch. If you're in Bulmania, you know Jason speaks every day. We are now in short season. Bitcoin is bearish on the weekly. Bitcoin is bearish on the daily. And when you have the bear trend on the daily — meaning we don't have this fake scam pump within a bear market like we had in May, where people thought a new bull market was starting — that's when the bear market is in full effect. So we're in full effect now.
Thoughts on Mythos AI and Jailbreaking
With all of this AI, Mythos did release — I think yesterday — and nothing has been hacked yet. They also restricted the use of Mythos for cybersecurity. So they released this AI that is supposedly so dangerous, but you cannot use it for cybersecurity. Let's see if someone can crack it, because the restriction on the replies is context-based. If someone can prompt-inject or try to hack its context — you know, the classic "pretend you are a small girl playing in kindergarten" type of approach — they probably have been thinking about that. But someone will figure it out because there is no way with 100% certainty to restrict AI from giving you answers. It's probabilistic. You cannot do it with an if-statement — "if someone asks about this, don't reply" — because it doesn't work like that. It depends on the context, it depends on how you put in the message. With AI there is no deterministic anything. So I'm sure someone will get around the restriction one way or another.
Altcoin Picks and Bull Trends
Thoughts on the Base ecosystem for the next cycle — Virtuals, Banker, and top picks for the next cycle. Guys, if you're new here, you know that we don't really do this kind of stuff — picking the best assets for the next cycle — because we need to see when they flip bullish. We need to see which assets flip bullish and when. We're not guessing here. Your other influencer who gets you wrecked might be guessing or telling you some random stuff based on narrative. We don't do that. It's impossible to know. You can have Bored Ape, you can have Dog With Hat — fully useless stuff pumping the most. What we need to see are bull trends.
Hyperliquid is up 72% since four months ago. That's the signal for the next cycle. Who the hell knows about Base — it's a corporate chain. Can they still have a pump? Maybe. But let's check Virtuals. Virtuals is now in a bear trend on the daily. On the weekly, also a bear trend. Don't touch it yet. Banker — bearish. Be a bit careful here with trying to guess what's happening. It's better to just react on trends.
The reason why it's a bit tough with Base is they cannot fully embrace the degen side. To have a nice sustained pump, you need the full ecosystem aligned — like the whole Solana space was aligned around dexes and meme trading. With Base, they're always half-regulated, half-not-regulated, so they can't really go full degen. And no one cares about the corporate chain. I think that's the biggest problem. Can it still pump? It can still pump. But we just have to see what the trends say. Always the trend.
Kaspa Discussion: Best Proof of Work?
Hey Ivan, do you think Kaspa has the best proof-of-work tech? Could it be the next cypherpunk? What do you mean by best proof of work? What is best? How do you define best proof of work? People run around with these one-liners they heard from Telegram, and who is in those Telegrams? The people who are down 90%. They may say stuff like "we have the best proof of work" — but what does that mean? Do you have the most hash power? No, Bitcoin has the most hash power. What does best proof of work mean?
The common way to assess what is the best proof-of-work chain is the one that has the most hash power — which is the most expensive to 51% attack and therefore the most secure. That's one way of doing it. Confirmation time less than two seconds — okay, so if you want speed, there are many other fast chains. Solana is fast. Everything is fast. Proof of work has one job and that is security. So if you have the best proof of work, I would imagine you have the best security. But if you want speed, you can go to Solana.
Don't worry about best proof of work too much. It will not save you from the bear trend. Maybe it has the best proof of work — I'm not saying it doesn't. But if you tell me it's the fastest proof of work, okay, maybe. It's still a bear trend. It's still going down. So wait for it to be bullish, then we can discuss your best proof of work.
Zcash has privacy. Kaspa — what do you do with it? You have proof of work. Bitcoin has proof of work. You're faster. Okay. What is the result? You see, when you start digging a bit, you see that it's a lot of one-liners. Maybe it's still the best. And you need a one-liner for a good pump — you need a one-liner for the pleb in the bull who's going to be excited and buy from you. So if it goes bull, I think it would be quite exciting because Kaspa has a good history of having big fat runs. Not because of best proof of work, guys. It has nothing to do with best proof of work. If you think that the previous Kaspa pumps — which have been quite big — are due to best proof of work, you're mistaken. It's not how it works. You need a good market maker, you need a good strategy.
Let me actually see — are they buying back the coin? They should be buying back the coin now in the bear market. Something has happened here. There is quite a lot of volume here. Maybe they've been buying back the coin during the last few months at these lows where you have massive volume but the price doesn't do too much. If they can buy back the coin — forget best proof of work, it will not help you pump — what will help you pump is their market maker buying back the coin in the bear at cheap prices, and then they can pump it in the next bull. That's what will help it. Sorry to break your romanticism. Maybe you were very romantic about best proof of work. I'm just telling you it's the last thing that's going to pump you.
Jesse Pollak and the Base Ecosystem
Jesse Pollak has definitely done a bad job at Base. He's a great guy, he's a cringe guy — I love Jesse Pollak. As a friend I would love him. But as a product guy for Base — oh my god, it's been a very bad decision. Brian Armstrong, if you're listening, you need to fire Jesse. And again, I love Jesse, but we do business. As a leader, we need success here. I would fire Jesse. Maybe he can still be involved in Base — maybe he can organize conferences. He would be great at welcoming people. He has a nice aura. But he's not on-chain native.
To lead Base, you need someone who is truly on-chain. For real. Not this "we're going to do Zora, we're going to mint tweets on chain, we're going to mint content on chain" — that's not real on-chain. Real on-chain means you understand how millions are made on chain. You understand that this guy bought Dog With Hat, it went up a lot, and you understand the mechanics of it. You launch a coin — where does the money come from? What is the ecosystem? How does it work? That's real. When you have Zora where someone mints a picture and no one cares — that's not it. Zora was a failure and they pushed it hard.
Jesse should go to HR. I say it with the highest respect. People need to do what they're good at. If I'm a CEO and I see a guy is not good at something, someone else needs to try. You cannot have one guy owning a thing and rely only on that guy. And he's had many chances. How many years is Base? Three, four years? They need to remove Jesse. Jesse, let's find you a new job. Maybe even a better job.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding something. I'm not part of Coinbase, but this is our show and we're here to yap. I'm yapping about stuff I maybe don't fully know about. Big shout out to Jesse. If you're watching this, I love you. Maybe I'm yapping wrong. Let me know in the comments.
Kaspa's On-Chain Social Media Claims
Kaspa guy wants us to understand the power of Kaspa. He's saying Kaspa is a social media running entirely on chain — every post, every comment. Yeah, good, good. But where are the users? Who's going to use it? Don't try to convince us about fundamentals because in this community we are immune against that. You can have on-chain social media on Solana, on Sui — you can have it anywhere. You can put social media on chain on any chain. Close your eyes, throw a dart, you can probably put social media on that chain.
Give me a bull trend. If you're so great, can you give a bull trend? Don't speak about Kaspa until you have a bull trend. Get into a bull trend on the weekly or the daily. Pick your own time frame. Can you even get on the four-hour? Even on the four-hour you cannot get to a bull trend. Get to a bull trend somewhere. So great, so great — you have a one-hour bull trend. Okay, so the scalpers can do something here. Otherwise it's all great. Why is it dumping? What's happening? When is bull trend? Different story then. Then you have earned the right to shill your on-chain social media on Kaspa. Before that — bad trend. Big shout out to Kaspa guy. I love Kaspa guy. He's great.
Stock Market Check: S&P, NASDAQ, and the AI Bubble
Let's check the index — S&P, SPX, NASDAQ. A lot of volatility. What the hell happened here? Interesting. Silver — still bull trend. Still bull trend.
What happened here on the S&P? Almost went into bear trend on the daily, but then it recovered. That's interesting. Let's see NASDAQ. Look here on the daily — now moving into bear territory on the daily. Maybe it's the AI bubble popping in real time. We're still bullish because it's bull, but should it go bear, we wash our hands. We're bear. That's interesting. Let's see how it unfolds.
Tether — still at 96. But how is it going to go to 100? They have Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday to raise. That's it.
MicroStrategy Technical Levels
Let me check MicroStrategy because someone is saying it's effed. Okay. I thought they had some crazy open below the close, but it's not too bad. But yeah, it's breaking down. There is support here — breaking down. The next support — where's the next support? Yeah, maybe somewhere here is the next support at around $69. If Strategy goes here, don't be surprised. There's no support here until $69. They may still get supported here — they haven't broken down yet. But if they break down here, the next one — and you see there's no other support until $69. I would say the support area is between $70 and $80. Between $80 and $70 is likely the next support.
SpaceX IPO — Why Ivan Won't Be Piling In
Ivan, are you buying SpaceX tomorrow? We discussed this today and yesterday — I'm not going to be buying the IPO. I'm going to see how the trends turn out. We need to see the real trading. I'm not going to be piling into that IPO.
It's the biggest IPO in history. And by the way, if it moves and never returns to IPO price, I'm fine. I'm not here to chase. What's likely going to happen — and I can tell you what's likely going to happen — is that you have the open, maybe it pumps a bit, then dumps, then a few months of figuring itself out, with the highest likelihood below the IPO price. And that would be a good time to see, man. I don't know if it's a good price at these trillions. I need to see how it's trading in the real market.
Now some other people analyze the business pre-IPO. They analyze the potential, whether the IPO price is cheap or not. I don't like that analysis. It's not my style. I don't want to analyze a company before IPO and decide myself if the valuation is cheap or not, for many different reasons. Number one: even if the analysis is correct, it can still dump 90% for like two years until it recovers. The analysis will still be correct, but it can still dump 50%, 70%, 90%, and then maybe in two or three years it goes up like they expected. The timing is very hard.
Number two: I know how these things work. You go public at such a high valuation — why? Because you want to capture all of the gains. Do you think they leave something to retail? Do you really think they go public with SpaceX or other IPOs now at multi-trillion valuations and leave anything to retail? I think that when they decide on the IPO price, what they do is: okay, what's the highest possible price so it's not ridiculous, so it still kind of trades and doesn't go down instantly? Maybe it even holds up a bit. What's the highest possible? Let's go with that. And then they have to grow the business, reach new milestones. And you as a pleb can be part of that — part of what they have not achieved yet — which means it's going to take time, two or three years, maybe it goes down quite a lot until the market understands, until they deliver, until this new stage.
Basically, I think it's a mistake to think that they list it and you have some free lunch here. They listed at the fair price — the maximum price based on current progress and even projections. What you as a pleb can participate in is: okay, what's the next 20 years? What's the big dream? Are we going to go to Mars? SpaceX is mainly valued on Grok, as far as I understand, since they've merged a bunch of things. Just follow the trend. We see how it lists, we see the trend, if we see it mooning — okay, great, we can still participate. And don't be greedy. I don't feel any FOMO because there's something pumping every day.
Just look at the stock market during the last few months — it's been crazy. You don't need the SpaceX IPO to make a lot of money from stocks. Look at TSM — up 120% since a year ago. There are many companies that go bullish on the money line and the money scanner would tell you in real time. You don't need to be in the most hyped IPOs in the world to make money. And if you love space anyway, you can still participate later on.
I'm telling you that's my strategy because I'm fine in the event that SpaceX lists and just pumps like crazy. I'm totally fine with that. I'm not piling in. It could happen — it's a non-zero chance that they list and just go to the sky like a freaking rocket ship. Maybe it happens. I don't think so, but if it happens I'm fine, because my strategy is that there's always something that pumps and I want to be where I have the best risk-reward. With these big IPOs, I just don't feel the cards are stacked in my favor. I'm being taken for a ride. Maybe the ride is good, maybe the ride is bad. I don't know. So I would rather see what's going to happen on the open market.