Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's position at the 200-day moving average and scans altcoin and stock opportunities
Ivan on Tech presents a live market analysis covering Bitcoin's macro trend, short-term altcoin trades, stock market performance, and broader thoughts on AI, employment, and financial independence.
Summary
Ivan on Tech delivers a solo live stream analyzing Bitcoin's current position at approximately $80,700, emphasizing that the macro trend remains bearish on the weekly chart despite some short-term bullish signals on lower timeframes. He argues that Bitcoin must break above the 200-day moving average to signal any meaningful trend reversal, and that until the "money line" indicator flips bullish on the weekly, a risk-off posture is warranted. He highlights several altcoins — including SUI, TON, and Venus — that have produced strong short-term gains on the hourly chart, while cautioning against over-romanticizing positions. He also notes that stocks such as Intel, AMD, and Micron have dramatically outperformed crypto in recent weeks, with some posting 65–100% gains since their recent bullish flips. The episode includes extended commentary on AI's impact on corporate employment, the importance of trading mechanical rules over news-driven narratives, and the FIT21 Clarity Act's likely limited immediate price impact.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin at the 200-Day Moving Average — The Key Level to Watch
Ivan: Welcome to another episode. As you can see right now, Bitcoin is currently in a very interesting spot. We are at approximately $80,000 — $80,700 right now. If you look on the weekly chart, the big picture chart, you can see that my line is still bearish. Meaning that macro-wise, we are risk-off. We are above the bull market support band, so you have one first bull signal on the big timeframe, but this one has a lot of fakeouts. You can see here — fakeouts during the bull, it said it's bearish during the bull many times. So while we see it as a bull signal, we still need to see the money line go bull for us to go fully bull.
But look here on the daily. If we go from the weekly to the daily, there is something very interesting. Bitcoin really has to break the 200-day moving average. Now we're on the daily, looking at the daily. This is key because normally what happens in bear markets is that you have one attempt to break it, you get rejected, and then later on we actually break it. If we look here previously, we had one attempt, two, three, and then we finally broke it. So the question is: can we now break it on the first attempt in this bear? This would make this bear super small — like a tiny bear, like a sun bear, like some kind of koala bear.
But here is where we have to pay attention. That's why the title of this stream is "Can We Break It?" — because this is quite meaningful. Also, the reason why we're still overall leaning slightly careful is because we are in the bear trend. You also have charts coming out saying, for example, the biggest bounces come in downtrends — number one. And then also, if you measure normally how the bounces happen when you look at the Fibonacci levels, normally we go to the 0.38 level, which is around $85,000 — which is, by the way, kind of where we went this time around, went a bit below to $83,000. But all in all, $85,000, which is the Fibonacci resistance, corresponds to this resistance level here as well.
So that's why on Bitcoin, on the micro level, we keep the head cool and we follow the system — despite the FOMO on Twitter, despite whatever people are writing. On the big picture, we are risk-off still, like we've been since October 8th. We're risk-off, we have a war chest to deploy, and there is no rush to do it yet.
Short-Term Altcoin Opportunities — SUI, TON, Venus
But look here — when you look at smaller timeframes, I tweeted yesterday, for example, the hourly. There are many trading opportunities on the smaller timeframe — for example, the hourly, the 4-hour, and so on. SUI, if you look on the hourly, printed a very nice 30% gain. You have of course TON also — if we look at TON, we discussed it during the last few days. TON has also been an absolute beast during the last week or so.
So you can have two thoughts in the brain at the same time, depending on your brain capacity. But most people have the brain to have at least two slots. Normally we can have up to seven slots in our memory, but you at least need to use two slots here to understand that Bitcoin on the big picture, on the macro, is still bear — but on the short term, you can still trade. You can still trade if you use the money line or whatever system you have to catch the bull trends.
On the hourly here — can you trade this? Absolutely. Hourly flipping bullish. Fantastic bull. And here it also told you, by the way, courtesy of the money line, to get out as soon as possible when this thing goes bearish. So it tells you when to go bull, it tells you when to go bear. Fantastic. That's TON.
If we look at Venus — Venus has been doing super, super well. Similar here on the hourly: bull, and then you just let it continue. And again, the way to use the bearishness in Bitcoin in this context is to not over-romanticize. A lot of people over-romanticize. They start looking at their coins as the best thing ever. But don't over-romanticize. Should this thing go bearish, you're out. Super simple.
If we look at the different coins that have been pumping during the last seven days, Venus is still in bull trend on the hourly. And again, while Bitcoin is in bear trend, everything here we look at on shorter timeframes — the hourly, the 4-hour. TON is currently bearish on the hourly, so good to be out. Should it continue to the upside, you can always get back in. SUI on the hourly is currently going to go bearish — yeah, it's actually already bearish. So on the hourly it's bearish again. You see, the hourly can change from day to day. Now it's bearish. Let's say tomorrow it's bull again.
But because we are bearish on Bitcoin, this is the way we approach altcoins — to not get overly romantic, overly invested. You know, you go on the first date and you're already overly excited — take it easy, man. The overall index of the industry, which is Bitcoin, is still bearish. It's like getting too excited on individual stocks while the S&P or NASDAQ is bearish. You want the main index to be in your favor and to be pushing your gains higher and higher to have the best risk-reward.
ETH Performance and the Importance of Chart Over Narrative
Now, if you bought potato in 2021 — let me know. If you bought any potato, the problem is you probably ate it. Here's the problem: it mooned 10x in five years. ETH was $3,900 five years ago and it is $2,200 right now. And to be fair, whatever you look at — if you go to your local supermarket and you check anything, whether it is garlic, whether it is lettuce, whether it was five years ago — it was way cheaper than it is right now.
Of course, it's not everything you can have in your pocket for five years. Tomato, maybe you cannot hold for five years — it's going to go bad. Potato, can you hold it for five years in your pocket? Probably not. But the question is, can you hold some canned item or whatever? It kind of shows that five years is a long time. S&P 500, NASDAQ normally give you around 50% in five years — just overall long-term performance. If you ignore all of the years where it pumped more than 8% and all of the years where it dumped a lot, you just average everything out. S&P, NASDAQ, you can expect around 8% per year long-term average. So in five years, it's close to 50% that you should get in terms of just not thinking too much and buying the S&P.
So all investments we make need to be in that context — that if we don't outperform the big boomer indexes, that's a net loss. If you are here to make money, you need to benchmark. What do you benchmark with? For example, S&P. Most hedge funds, most active management vehicles, they benchmark themselves with S&P, with NASDAQ, or whatever else they want to outperform. So if you ignore the ideological aspect, the investment aspect needs to be such that your gains outperform S&P — otherwise you just buy S&P and don't worry too much.
It's also something we speak a lot about in Bulmania, speaking about mechanical rules and all of that, because it's so important. You need to understand what we're doing here. There are different reasons to be in crypto — again, ideological, or to make a profit — and you have to be clear about that. Most people mix it up. One day they're here to make a lot of money, but then the portfolio goes down 90% and they become ideological as a way of coping. You have to be upfront with yourself. You can trick people on Twitter, you can trick your public image, but you cannot trick yourself. Your subconscious and your psyche will have a very hard time adjusting to that, even though publicly you can rationalize it for yourself.
Anyway, let me know if potato is so expensive — but it's true. Most things from five years ago are way more expensive in the supermarket. Let's look at the chart. According to Trading Economics, potato went from $2 to $20. Per 100 kilograms. So in dollar terms, yeah, it's above $20. For sure.
What else? Let's see garlic. Price of garlic. It's a bit of a joke example, but also not a joke example, because it's true. ETH has been sideways — and actually down — for the past five years. Financially, it's very bad. It's not only down, it's down also versus everything else like NASDAQ and S&P. So that's why we hold in bull trend, we don't hold in bear.
Tom Lee is saying ETH and RWA may be the biggest narrative. Let's see. For us, we keep it simple. RWA biggest narrative — you have the bull market support band bearish, you have the money line bearish. I've been in crypto so long that I don't get affected by the narratives too much anymore. We've been through so much crap, so much BS, that the only thing that matters literally is the chart. If your chart is like this, I don't care what you say. Your transaction fee is still so high. Should ETH go bullish? Okay, great. ETH is the most decentralized, most trusted — Vitalik is God. Okay, I'll say the same thing. But it needs to go boom. It needs to go bull. Without going bull, get out of here.
Now, still on the short term on the hourly, you can trade it like anything else as long as it goes. Let's actually check the hourly. How does ETH look on the hourly? It had a bit of bull here, but actually even on the hourly it's still bearish. The money line is not getting faked out by this stuff. If we remove the bull market support band, you see — still bearish.
And here, if you look at back-testing, the hourly money line has good results: 1 ATR, 83%; 2 ATR, 73%; 3 ATR, 60%. So if you trade the low timeframe, you need to capture profit quite fast. Between one and two ATR you should already be taking profits, because you see the probability of profit drops quite a lot when you look at 3 ATR. And then if we look at the likelihood of reaching 4 ATR on the hourly — yeah, it drops further, still about 50%. Still above 50%, but in general, the shorter the timeframe, the more disciplined you should be capturing profits. Set a stop loss. If it goes bearish, you're out. That's it.
Coinbase (ON) and the Discipline of Not Over-Romanticizing
Let's check Coinbase. If we look at the hourly — it went bearish. Yeah, basically now bearish, so be careful. But look at this hourly — it's very, very nice. It captured this full ride to the upside in a fantastic way. To this peak it was 83%, to this flip 50%, 54%. But here's maybe one example where it's good not to be too romantic, because yeah, they're going to do tokenization. Listen, maybe they also go down and retest lower levels.
We separate the romanticism from the chart while Bitcoin is bearish. Should Bitcoin go bull on the money line, things will be different. Then we see how high we fly. For now, this is the mode of operation. This is the mode of operation, and it hasn't changed basically since October 8th, 2025, because we're still in the same situation — nothing has changed materially. And if you still want to ride the volatility, you have the lower timeframe. So you could actually have the cake and eat it too in this sense. You just have to be more careful.
Q&A — Oil, Uniswap, IGV, and the Stock Market
In terms of altcoins, let's quickly go to Q&A. Let's discuss what you want in terms of prices and charts. There aren't too many news items really. It's Saylor — he's going to buy, he's going to sell.
There is actually one thing I want to check. Did STRC get back to 100 or not? Let me refresh. Let me check STRC. So Saylor will be able to raise money from today basically, because you can see it got back to 100. If it's above 100, he can now start printing new STRC and putting it back into the market. He now has basically this week — four to five days — to raise money, because then after the ex-dividend date, this is going to dump hard. It's going to be like this again. So he has now a few days to do it. Last time he had like two full weeks to do it because we went above 100 here, and then basically since the start of April he was able to raise money until the middle of April. Now the markets are giving him a bit fewer days. He has four days now to buy. So let's see how much he can sell, because we can see it also in the volume. When the price is above 100, we can see in the trading volume and estimate how much new stock he has created, how much new STRC he has created and then dumped into the market in order to raise money.
Let's go to Q&A — questions, answers, debates.
Let's check oil. Is the market buying that there is no more war? Because Professor J still says there's going to be war. The market is not really buying that there is no war. Oil is still at 97. Let's check Brent. Technically in a bear trend, but as you know, with oil we don't really look too much at the trends because it's too volatile. It's too political. Trends are good for trading human behavior — what humans are doing. But here, one decision, one fake tweet from Trump can dump it, and then a new headline can reverse it. This is a political asset. It's fully politically controlled. So to trade oil as any other asset is a bit different. Then you're trading politics. It can still work, but it's just not easy mode. We want easy mode — where it's human behavior. Trading human behavior is the easiest ever, because whether it is on Twitter or elsewhere, you see people have a problem with volatility either to the upside or downside. People are almost the most bullish at the top, the most bearish at the bottom, and you want to trade against humans. You don't want to trade against whatever Trump is going to tweet and what his insiders are doing. I never want to trade against Trump. So oil is a bit like that — it's more of a prediction market than human psychology and trading the trends.
Let's check Uniswap. Someone mentioned that. So Uniswap on the weekly — if we remove the support band, still bearish on the weekly. On the hourly — yeah, it's bullish since the 4th. The hourly is very nice. We're going to add the hourly to the money scanner soon so you can see what flips on the hourly in real time. Looking good on the hourly. Still bull trend. Fantastic. Uniswap is looking very, very good. But again, the backdrop is bear trend in Bitcoin, and all of these assets — including Uniswap — on the super low timeframe, we're looking at the hourly. You're like a day trader here. You're in, you're out. You're not over-romantic. Don't be romantic on the 1-hour or 12-hour. On the weekly, if it goes bull, you can bring out your bottle of wine. You can be romantic. Now, on the hourly, you're transactional. Do you understand? You're transactional. And nothing wrong with that. But your portfolio will thank you if you are transactional.
Bitcoin you can be romantic with — for example, I always have Bitcoin for ideological and romantic reasons. Sometimes it's not the best financial decision, but long-term it is. So that's the situation there.
IGV — The Tech Stock Index Bitcoin Mirrors
Let's look at IGV, because this is the stock index which Bitcoin basically mirrors. Here it has an interesting development. On the weekly — it is actually in a confirmable bull trend. The week closed, so the new candle is going to open bull now when the market starts. This is one positive thing for Bitcoin which is quite significant. IGV, which Bitcoin mirrors — literally exact — and then there's a question: who follows who? Is Bitcoin following IGV and the tech stocks, or vice versa? Likely Bitcoin is following tech stocks because it's just a smaller asset versus all of the tech stocks, and Wall Street is just treating Bitcoin as a tech stock and allocating accordingly.
But this could be an interesting bullish sign that potentially pushes Bitcoin closer towards that weekly flip. If IGV goes bull — very, very nice. This is very important for Bitcoin. This thing stopping its dump is super important.
And overall, I think Wall Street firms are realizing: hey, maybe software will not be replaced by AI. Maybe it's more of a facade what we've been doing here with AI. It's a facade in the sense that you cannot really make a product-market fit and have operations, and you cannot have mission-critical stuff with AI either. You can use AI inside your company, which is very, very good — that's where most of the gains are. So a lot of these companies — what's really expected is that they use AI. I don't think anyone wants to replace, like, Salesforce and do their own Salesforce. If you've tried that — the first 10 minutes with vibe coding is great, then you understand: holy crap, it's not great.
Now, if you are Salesforce, you are a big company. You could use AI to become more efficient, fire more people, be leaner and meaner and more profitable, and have a tighter enterprise — which is very good. People get so emotional when Coinbase said they're firing people. I said it's bullish for Coinbase. I understand from a human perspective it's different, but from a company perspective, you don't want too many people. It's always coordination issues, drama, so many things. If you can have AI, it's better. The problem is AI cannot be responsible and accountable for anything, so you still need a person using it as a tool. There is no AGI, there's no grand intelligence. You need to have a person being responsible. That's it.
AI, Corporate Employment, and Financial Independence
If you are skilled, if you are good at your job, you are generally safe. No one's going to replace you. If you are mediocre — you go to lunch, you have a three-hour lunch when you're supposed to have one hour, you chitchat at the water cooler — your days are numbered. There's a lot of fat to be cut in corporate. A lot of non-accountable roles. There are many jobs where it's unclear what exactly you are accountable for, what exactly you own.
I have about three years of experience in corporate. I worked at Ericsson for three years before crypto. I can tell you, most people there won't make it. It's going to be very, very hard. But for the companies, for the stockholders, it's very good. It's going to be the same or better product, developed better, but more profitable because you need fewer people.
Of course, there's a human side, there is financial struggle, there is inequality. I fully sympathize with that. But I'm on the side of more personal control. Instead of being depressed, you go and learn trading, you become good at financial markets. You need to see it as something that you have personal control over. It's your responsibility. The world is harsh — the gazelle gets eaten by the lion. No one owes anyone a job. Surprise: no one owes anyone a job. The world works like it is. It's very unfair sometimes — you work hard, you put in so much time to your corporation, and they don't promote you. They promote someone else for whatever reason. It's already not fair. So don't get surprised if you get fired out of nowhere. Instead, have control over that and steer your ship in such a way where no one can fire you. If you are good at trading, you're good at financial markets — no one can fire you. It's trading every day.
That's why personally I'm so thankful that I got from the enterprise programming path into crypto and into markets. Thank you very much, Destiny. It's been the best shift ever, because I could have easily continued as a corporate software developer. At that time in 2016, 2017, that path looked very bright. It was maybe the best path you could have. You could work anywhere in the world, be in the US or Europe wherever you want, full choice, very respected as a computer engineer. Now, if I would be a software engineer trying to find a job — please hire me. The HR department is like, who are you? Get out of here. 500 interviews before getting rejected. If you're a software engineer, let me know in the comment section if you recognize that. From my friends I speak to, they feel like it's very tough.
Anyway, my heart is with you. Emotionally I'm with you. Practically — just get your ship under your control. If someone can fire you, you likely will get fired sooner or later. Watch financial markets. No one can fire you from financial markets. No one can take away the skill from you.
Some of my friends just got fired after 10 years in good companies. Just like that. But don't get surprised. At the end of the day, the boardrooms run calculus every quarter — how can we become more efficient? The job of the board is to make the company as efficient as possible, as profitable as possible, to make the stock price go up as much as possible. Because otherwise, if they don't do that, they get replaced. The CEO gets replaced. The shareholders decide who is on the board, the board can then decide the CEO, and so on. At the end of the day, the shareholder is the boss. He decides everything. The shareholder wants the price up, dividend up. If they see they can make it more efficient and don't need a whole department — no matter how good a person you are, it's just not a factor.
I don't know how people do it — in corporate it was a very interesting lesson for me. When I worked there, it was me and another guy from university. He was a great guy, we were friends, but I just saw that he was way smoother with the decision-making, way smoother building relationships. I was more autistic. I could code very, very well — actually better than the other guy — but I wasn't that smooth building relationships. And I just realized my growth here is going to be limited by that. This guy, if it comes to it, is going to run circles around me when it comes to the smoothness. I was way too autistic for that. So that's when I realized: I don't even want to compete here. That's very important — don't try to compete where you are naturally bad. Instead, focus down on what you're good at.
That's why I work online. Online financial markets — it's the best. No schmoozing required. When you look backwards, the best times were the hard times. Peter Thiel says competition is for losers. In business, yes. In personal life, yes. If you feel you're bad at something, don't try to improve it too much. Go down where you're good at something. Don't try to be a well-rounded person. Be good at something — really good at something. That's way better. Because if you're well-rounded, AI is much more well-rounded than you are. Just be really good at something.
I was a very bad schmoozer and I quickly realized in corporate that this was not going to be in my favor. I'd better find something else. And then crypto came like a godsend. Fantastic. Even though I've been in crypto since 2013, in 2017 is when I actually started making content and trading seriously. It was great. Thank God for crypto. Big shout out to Satoshi.
Visa and Lightspark — Crypto Payment Rails
What about Bitcoin, Visa, and Lightspark having a payment rail? Most bullish news ever?
Let me check that. Visa partnering with Lightspark. Okay. Future into digital assets, multi-chain, stablecoin settlement, Bitcoin-backed debit cards. I think here's where it's going to be good — I don't think it's going to matter too much in terms of price, because again, news doesn't affect price. Don't bring me any news and say it's going to affect price. They don't. Chart affects price. When the chart is bull, you can have great news and it's going to pump. When the chart is bearish, you can have great news and it's still going to dump. So the news is not important.
In terms of this, I think it could be good in case you can have nice stable debit card providers actually being legitimately supported by Visa. Because for the longest time in crypto, there have been shady deals where a company offers you a Visa debit card backed by crypto, but actually Visa thinks you are their employee. There are two different ways to work with Visa as a crypto startup. In the past, the way they've gone around it is that they said to Visa: listen, we have many employees, so all of these cards are employee cards — which means very low KYC. But then they took that card and gave it to you as a retail client using their exchange. I don't know if that's a big way of doing things nowadays, but the early card providers were hustling like that.
So with Visa doing this collaboration and integration, hopefully it just means you have nice stable card providers that work worldwide. In the past, you'd have a card that works in some countries but not others — it's been a hassle. So that would be good. In terms of price — you really need to fix your brain as quickly as possible if you think that news affects price. It is not good for your portfolio. I'm telling you that as someone who in the beginning also thought that news affects price. It cost me dearly. Learn from my mistake, or you can make your own and in the future you're going to say: Ivan, I should have listened.
The FIT21 Clarity Act — What It Means for Crypto
What will happen with these coins if the Clarity Act passes? Nothing instantly. Nothing instantly. Long-term it means more clarity — you know what to do, what not to do. I don't expect any instant pump in case the Clarity Act passes.
Let's check Polymarket. The reason why normally nothing happens when the thing actually confirms — or sometimes you can actually have a dump when a good thing happens — is because everyone is already positioned. Here, for example, you have everyone seeing that this thing is now moving. Clarity Act signed into law in 2026. So everyone in the world, big capital, is already positioning their portfolios. In case this goes to 100%, what's going to happen? Let's say it goes to 100%. The anticipation is gone. Will it pump? In many cases it's already priced in.
But long-term it's of course very different. Let me enter AI mode. Let's ask who will benefit the most from the Clarity Act. Ultimately it's going to be the user who's going to be able to use DeFi and everything without — maybe even with some protection.
Number one winner: traditional banks and financial institutions. The act overrides previous SEC guidance allowing banks to custody digital assets without them counting as liabilities on their balance sheet. This is very good. It means that for you as a client of exchanges and banks in the US, if the platform goes bankrupt, your assets are more protected. That's good.
Institutional investors and ETF providers — large-scale investors who stayed on the sidelines — now have a safer environment for capital to flow. Good for ETFs.
Established mature blockchains: the bill introduces a "mature blockchain" test to determine if an asset is a commodity or security. Networks like Bitcoin and ETH are widely viewed as commodities. Altcoins with listed ETFs are positioned as immediate beneficiaries. This is quite good for the dinosaur coins — XRP, SOL, Litecoin. And you have benefits for Coinbase and Kraken.
So it's good stuff. But sometimes I don't know what's going to happen to price when the Clarity Act passes. It's nice that you feel calmer as a client, but you already have the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF. Will this materially change the risk assessment of big money that wants to enter crypto — that for some reason now they don't touch the BlackRock ETF because they're too concerned, and then after the Clarity Act they will buy it more? I don't see how much it's going to improve directly. Indirectly, long-term for business, it's fantastic. The US having clear rules is overall very net positive. Does that make sense? But I don't understand what people mean when they say we're going to pop on the Clarity Act. Take it easy. Fundamentally, for price, I don't put it as a high probability of an instant explosion.
Gaming Tokens and Avoiding Over-Romanticization
What's your thought on a gaming token? Let's check it on the 4-hour. Currently bearish on the 4-hour. Can you trade it short? You can. On the hourly — also bearish. So when it goes bull on the hourly or 4-hour, you can trade short-term. For the long term, let's see. On the daily, it's a bit up and down. Should it go bull on the daily, you can speculate on it, but I'm a bit worried when someone says they think it's the best, because maybe they're too romantically involved with it.
There's no such thing as the best crypto gaming anything, because crypto gaming as a whole is very underdeveloped. There's no best anything. And next cycle, I can assure you we're going to have so many new "best crypto gaming whatever." Overall, it's just flat. Should it start breaking up to the upside on the daily, then you could say potentially it's a nice bottom here if it breaks to the daily. But I'll leave my comment at that. Whether it's the best or not — it's the wrong way to think about it. Very, very wrong way to think about it.
Stocks — Intel, AMD, Micron, and the Money Scanner
Now let's check the stocks. S&P 500 had a bit of a bearish period here, resumed the bull, and up and up and up and up. Today it will open even higher. Look at the futures price — it's above the close price. NASDAQ going to open a bit lower, like $1 lower, but also since the bull flip — boom, boom, boom, boom. You want a bull trend. Very nice. Very, very nice. Always bull trend.
In terms of AI-related stocks — Intel. Oh, holy crap. Fantastic. Look at this table right here. 100%. And then people are wondering why money is flowing into stocks right now. Since the bull flip, 100% — and this was about a month ago. Fantastic.
The boomers are running circles around crypto right now. It is a strong season in Bulmania. We've been saying it for a very long time. Let's check Micron — 65% since the recent bull flip. And it's going to open even higher. AMD — up 71% since mid-April. And it wants to go even higher.
This is also fully back-tested. You can see here the chances of reaching different amounts of ATR based on the bull flip. So yeah, if you want this — it's been stock season. What can I tell you? It has been stock season. I don't make the rules. We just follow the trend and that's it. The stocks have been crazy. Do you understand? Crazy.
We also added forex for all the forex enjoyers. If you want to trade euro versus Japanese yen — let's actually see the most bullish stuff. All currencies basically moon against the Japanese yen. You don't want to be holding too much Japanese yen.
With the stocks, you can see here what flipped on the daily. We actually have all countries in the world — you can trade stocks from any country. Did you know you can trade Saudi Arabia stocks? Did you know you can trade Nigeria stocks? Kazakhstan, Jordan — we have everything. But anyway, for the US, let's see what flipped in the last month. Google flipped. Very nice. Amazon. AMD. Intel. Micron. Very nice. United Health Group — you want some healthcare? Qualcomm. SanDisk. Very nice.
Again, it's just the recent bull trend. It also had a bunch of bull trends for the past year or so. But here's the thing — we want the up-only. We don't want to hold it down when it drops and consolidates for weeks and weeks. We'd rather deploy capital elsewhere. That's why the strategy on the daily is that we ride it up, and should it go bearish, you're out. But then you can enter again in a new bull trend, let's say in a week or so.
If you look at the weekly, it's up actually 400% since four months ago. So it depends really on what kind of trader you are. Are you more of a day trader? Then you go to the daily. If you can hold longer and don't really care if it drops maybe 30%, then you can use the weekly. Different mindset. Some people have one kind of mindset, some people have a different kind.
Will it be like this forever? At some point, no. At some point, crypto is going to take the lead. We just don't know when. Bitcoin is still bearish and we don't over-complicate it, because why over-complicate it when the system works if you don't over-complicate it? Should Bitcoin go completely bullish, then yes — then it is the reversal of the trend, the reversal of the wave. You know, everything goes in waves. People are excited about AI in the stock market now. Tomorrow, no one cares. Everyone was excited about crypto in September, October 2025. Then no one cares. People thought that the metaverse would be a $10 trillion industry by 2025. No one cares. So it always goes in circles.
Tariff Refunds and Market Impact
Arif revenue refund of $60 billion should start tomorrow. What do you think will be the market impact?
Yeah, it's hard to say, because it's not money going to the people. You pay the tariff as a person, as a client, but you don't get the refund. It's the company that gets the refund, because you didn't pay the tariff to the government — the company that imported stuff paid the tariff to the government, and then they billed you for the tariff. So the refund is going to the companies. What will the companies do with the refund? Will they give it to you so you can go and buy crypto? Yeah, it's not that everyone gets money back. It is the company that imported — they're going to get the money back. You as a retail end customer get the bad end of the deal.
Tariffs have been very bad for the end user and the client. For the company it's good — it's extra money. The government forced everyone to pay you extra money and you can keep it. Now you get it back. You paid it and now you get it back. You can keep it. Fantastic.
So guys, I don't want to sit here and try to predict this. I don't know if it's going to make any difference in the economy or the stock market. It's good — they get a boost of revenue, you can say. Which is potentially good. But will it change something for the stocks? It's hard to say. It's not a clear signal. It's not helicopter money. It's not like you get a free $2,000 that you can put into crypto. It's not like that.
Bitcoin Bottom Probability and Final Outlook
Final question from Azad: Ivan, what's your probability of bottoming out and when? Do you see any event pulling us back down? And do you see the S&P topping out anytime soon?
Let's start with the stocks. When it comes to the S&P topping out, I don't think it's going to top out. But also, I don't care, because if it tops out, we're going to have basically — you see it went bull, went bearish. It's simple. You're not going to sell at the very top, but that's not the point. Especially on the daily, you're going to get the signal quite fast. It was here, then it went here, it flipped bearish. That's it. You're out.
I don't care where it tops out. If it tops out here, for example — should that be the top — you exit when it confirms bearish. It's 5% down. That's it. I don't try to guess the top because chances are it just continues higher and then maybe it goes to a bearish trend later. What's the point of trying to predict it? If you see someone on Twitter saying the S&P pump is ridiculous — okay, maybe it is. You still want to ride it. You want to ride the ridiculous pump. Is it going to end? Maybe. If it ends, it goes bearish. Mechanical rules, the money line. It's such a relief.
I cannot describe the feeling of finally — most people who get wrecked, they want to be right. Is the pump ridiculous? Is it organic? Is it unorganic? Get this crap out of your brain now.
In terms of Bitcoin — the likelihood of us going down. I just follow the same system everywhere. The same system that got us out on October 8th, 2025. So don't be angry. You can do what you want. Sometimes people put so much emotion into things when it's not what they want to hear. But I'm literally telling you: we are in a bear trend on the weekly, which means I have to put more than 50% chance of us going lower. That's the definition of a bear trend. I'm just honest with you.
I could just say "bull, let's go bull bull bull" like other influencers do, because it gets more views. But I need to be upfront with you. It is more than 50% chance that we go lower. Now the difference is that the 200-week moving average is moving higher. So you remember when we put the buy zone — it was right here. The distance we put was around 10% or so above. Now, what would make sense is that this thing is moving higher the more time passes. So the buy zone also would move higher. We will revisit that in case we go lower — we will revisit where the buy zone should be based on the updates in the moving average, because the buy zone is based on the 200-week moving average.
So all in all, it's very important to be calm here. We're still in the bear trend. We could easily get down to the 200-week moving average. That doesn't stop us from profiting from everything else — whether it's altcoins, whether it's stocks. Even Bitcoin short-term on the daily is bull. On the daily you can profit from the bull here. It's 4%. You saw what happened to altcoins and stocks — this is like pennies. But if you want the penny, there is a bit of penny here on the short timeframe with Bitcoin.
The time to pick up the penny was here. Now it's testing the 200-day moving average. Should we continue above it, nice — then you can pick up more penny. But all in all, it's above 50% that we go down. That's why I'm risk-off. Whether it is 60%, 65%, 70% — for my action it matters a bit less, because I just need it to go bull. But it's more than 50% that we go down. And that is going to change should we go bull here. Okay, we're bull. That's it.
As you can see, I'm not over-complicating anything. And then I always have Bitcoin for ideological reasons. That's it.