Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's position below the weekly bull flip and discusses broader market signals
Ivan on Tech presents a solo market update on Bitcoin's current position, altcoin opportunities, macro factors, and broader lifestyle commentary.
Summary
Ivan on Tech delivers a solo market update focused on Bitcoin's failure to break above the key weekly bull flip level of approximately $79,400, which he identifies as the threshold for confirming a bull market. He argues that dips should be bought rather than feared, and that dollar-cost averaging near the 200-week moving average represents the best long-term risk/reward entry. He covers Michael Saylor's return to buying Bitcoin as a bullish signal, Tom Lee's bullish macro outlook on crypto (citing institutional allocation, the four-year cycle, Korean investor rotation, and the potential Clarity Act passage), the macro implications of a possible Fed rate hike — which he believes would have minimal negative impact given how much selling pressure has already been exhausted, while a rate cut would be a significant upside catalyst. He also discusses Solana's bullish trend, the risks of meme coin trading in low-liquidity conditions, the upcoming Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs as potential crypto catalysts, and Scott Bessent's comments on Canada trade relations. Ivan devotes substantial time to a personal health and fitness discussion, urging viewers to avoid weight-loss chemicals and focus on lifestyle changes as the bull market approaches. The episode also includes an altcoin Q&A covering Monad, Kaspa, Pango, and Seeker (SKR), with specific chart-based analysis and trading guidance for each.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Below the Weekly Bull Flip — Key Level and DCA Strategy
Ivan: Bitcoin is still below the weekly bull flip. Bitcoin is still struggling to get above this magic level at approximately — to be exact, $79,400 — that we have to get above in order to become bullish and to fly very high in Bitcoin and altcoins everywhere, because that is the official confirmation of the bull market.
Now, what we have to be careful with are the different dips that may come. Because when you get rejected like this, it's not impossible that we go back and revisit $70K again. Many people will be scared — very, very scared.
If we see a dip, which may happen, don't worry. Keep DCAing. We're DCAing below the bull flip. We're DCAing below the bull flip, especially here close to the 200-week moving average. This was really the time to DCA. We deployed 10 to 15% as you remember. But all in all, dips are for buying in the midterm. After you go from the 200-week moving average and you pump from the 200-week moving average — which we have done — where we have confirmed the 200-week moving average as support — which we have now also done — you understand that it is time to be bullish. It's not the time to try to optimize and maybe go a bit lower, maybe go slightly back to $70K.
Many people are also asking me: "Ivan, if you DCA'd here, should you now sell here and maybe buy back more?" Guys, we're not trading this pump. We didn't DCA here to trade this pump and now sell. That would be very bad because you're trying to time the market in such a small timeframe, while the plan was that when you buy here at the 200-week moving average, it is for the long term. It's a long-term very cheap price for Bitcoin. Buying at the 200-week moving average is a very cheap price long-term — it is the best, because Bitcoin always goes back to the 200-week moving average now and then. Not a lot, but now and then you get the chance to buy it, and if you buy here at or around the 200-week, it's an upward explosion — very, very fast. You see here: touch, upward. Touch, upward. So the 200-week moving average is the long-term trend for Bitcoin. It's always going up, as you can see, and if you get the chance to buy at or below it — sometimes it also goes below — but overall it's the best risk/reward.
So the conclusion: if you have been DCAing around the 200-week moving average, don't trade it now. Don't try to sell it and buy back. It's really not for that. The intention is not for that. The intention is that within the coming years, this is going to be a ridiculously cheap price. And then once we go bull flip, once we go bull trend, that is the true Valhalla — that is when we go heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy.
Solana's Bull Trend and Disinflation Signal
Now there are some coins that already have a bull trend. For example, Solana — as you know, it has a bull trend. It also has the disinflation past, meaning basically that Solana has had its own halving. If you look at what has happened to Bitcoin after each halving and you see the pump, Solana basically now has had their own version of that. They decreased inflation, and instead of money going to the stakers, now it's also going to go into the chart — which is very, very good.
Michael Saylor Buying Bitcoin Again
At the same time, you have Saylor coming back — buying Bitcoin. Finally buying Bitcoin. As you remember, he was selling the lows. When he was selling the lows, you remember what we said? He always sells at the bottom. We said: look at the previous cycle. What did Saylor do in the previous cycle? He always sells at the bottom. He sold the previous cycle at the bottom. And now he did the same basically. Saylor did mark the bottom.
This was already a few weeks ago. And also another thing — when Saylor was selling, it did not dump Bitcoin. That's another signal. Him selling the bottom is one signal, but another signal was also this: when he was selling, he did not dump the price. He sold, but the price held. That's another very important signal.
Saylor always sells the bottom because that's how his company is set up. When Bitcoin is pumping, he can raise money — he gets a lot of money from the public markets. When Bitcoin is not pumping, he cannot get money, so he has to sell. It's not that he decides to sell the bottom because he likes to sell the bottom. It's just how it's set up. Everything pumps, he gets money, he deploys. When it doesn't pump, now he needs to be more conservative. He needs to figure out how to pay the dividend, how to ensure that MicroStrategy has money, etc. So guys, welcome everyone to the show.
Tom Lee's Bullish Outlook and the Four-Year Cycle
Tom Lee is also pumping us. He's buying 53,000 ETH worth $131 million. Very, very good. And he's saying that it's very bullish. Why? Because of clarity. Now, will the Clarity Act pass? Who knows? There are rumors — rumors that there's some backdoor deal with Trump, that Trump is going to do some backdoor deal.
We think that Tom Lee is very smart now that we are in a bull market. In the bear market, he's not too smart. We were very, very against Tom Lee. We said don't listen to Tom Lee. Now Tom Lee and I are best friends because it's bull market and it's time to be bullish. Let's listen to what Tom Lee is saying.
Tom Lee: "I think this year crypto fundamentals have been good because we know the tokenization movement is very strong. I mean, Robinhood was a breakout product launch — really one of the biggest hits — and agentic AI is good for crypto. But we were in the middle of that crypto winter. I do think catalysts have come together and are actually going to really strengthen into year end. Because one, crypto is the best performing macro asset in the third quarter so far. So I think September and the fourth quarter there's going to be institutional allocation to crypto. The second is, the crypto four-year cycle basically ends next month. So I think people who've turned off crypto on their screens are going to come back. The Korean investor, which was really big in crypto — they rotated into AI early this year — but we're already seeing volumes pick up in Korea. So they're rotating back into crypto. And the final is, if the Clarity Act passes, which could happen this year. And if it does, I think Bitcoin and Ethereum have a huge fourth quarter."
Ivan: Bullish. Bull. This is the kind of thinking I want you guys to have now. And please confirm that you remember — because in October last year, we told you never listen to Tom Lee in a bear market. He's going to get you so wrecked. Many people lost 90% of their portfolio listening to Tom Lee in the bear. Now they hope it's going to recover.
If you listened to Ivan, you did not lose anything. In fact, many people are coming out saying that we saved them so much money because we got them out in time. Times change. In October you should not listen to Tom Lee. Now I think he is correct because it's bull market.
There was one guy in our Bull Mania group — I won't play you the whole thing — but he said we saved him half a million dollars. He spoke to Jason, our Chinese squad, back in October, basically exited, and he calculated he would have lost $500K. He avoided holding SUI minus 90%.
The key signal I want you to receive in your brain is that times change. When I tell you to be bearish, you listen. When I tell you to be bullish, you also listen. Listening to Tom Lee is always bull. You're going to lose 90% of your money. Then you need a 10x just to get back to zero. You lose 95%, you need a 20x just to get back to zero. A 20x could have changed your life if you kept your money, but now you need a 20x just to get back to zero. You have to be the best trader in the world just to get back to zero. You have to have such an insane overperformance — get a 20x, 100x — just to get back to zero. If you mess up a bull cycle, that's so important, guys. You have to be bull when it's time to be bull. You have to be bearish when it's time to be bearish. And now it's time to be bull, bull, bull.
The Clarity Act and Macro Signals
Look here. Trump potentially — well, Trump is not saying, but there are rumors circulating that the US Senate has already reached an agreement behind closed doors on the Clarity Act. If true, September could be huge for crypto. If the Clarity Act passes, you can apply that bullishness to any ticker.
Fed Rate Hike — Does It Matter?
Very important question. Someone asked: "Ivan, what's going to happen if the Fed increases the rates?" Let's put on our suit. Let's be a serious macro investor. Let's see what's going to happen with the rates in September according to Polymarket.
You now have this probability of an increase going up a lot. This really started to go up after the recent speech where they said that maybe they need to increase. Kevin Warsh came out and said that maybe he has to increase. And people are scared. You see Polymarket — the odds now are very high for an increase. In fact, it's the number one odds now that they will increase.
Here is my take on it. Number one, I think it's unlikely that they will increase. I think Polymarket is maybe too bullish on an increase. But even if it happens — because at the end of the day, I don't know, maybe they will increase — that does not change my strategy. That does not change my bullishness. It doesn't. Why? Because here's how bear markets work. After a year of bear, it doesn't matter what happens. Saylor dumping, the cold card hack — you remember? The signal that the bear market is over is that no one cares. You have some bad news. No one cares. Look here: Saylor dumping did not dump the price. Saylor sold, did not dump the price. Cold card hack did not dump the price. Iran, World War fears, oil, whatever — we had everything. Everything.
So with the rates, here's how I look at it. If they cut rates, we're going to pump. We're going to pump bigly, bigly, bigly. It's a new catalyst. It's a bit unexpected. We're going to pump a lot. If they hike rates, I don't think anything will happen. It's just going to be sideways. Maybe we go back to $70K for a week. Maybe we derp around here. I don't think the Bitcoin chart is going to change dramatically. Let's say they hike — okay, maybe we go back to around $70K. You can DCA more there. Then we come back. It's a 10% move here and there. Nothing big, I think, is going to happen due to the hike.
And the reason is because we've had a year of bear. In the beginning of the bear, you have a hike and it's very bad because everyone is bullish. They have so many coins to sell. As soon as there is a bit of bearishness, many people click sell, sell, sell, sell, sell. But at this point, we've had a year of struggle, so much pain. What's going to happen? You have another bad news. Who's going to sell? Saylor now is buying. Saylor has been dumping on us week after week. ETFs — look at ETFs. How much outflow? Outflow, outflow, outflow. We had so much outflow in the ETFs during the last months. Every day outflow $100 million, $200 million — bam, bam, outflow, outflow, outflow. How much more outflow can there be?
That's why at the end of the bear, bad news does not dump us and bull news pumps us. And at the end of the bull it's vice versa — bullish news, no one cares. You can have the best news ever, no one cares. And then as soon as it gets a bit bearish, you have down, because everyone is nervous, everyone wants to get out.
Having a Plan for the Bull Market
The question is also: do you have a plan for this bull market? Bitcoin: 21 million cap, no printer, no permission — the soundest money ever created.
Do you have a plan? Bull Mania. Clear strategies, clear rules. If you work in hospitality or a restaurant and something goes wrong, you have a plan. That's good.
Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs as Crypto Catalysts
Look here. Anthropic and OpenAI will have their IPOs soon. These are going to be such big IPOs — trillion-plus dollar IPOs. Why are they going to be so big? Because their revenue is growing a lot. Their business is growing a lot. I feel now that we've had more data come out about the financials, the markets are a bit calmer when it comes to this AI bubble. It seems that the revenues are growing so much, there's actual benefit to business and to clients, and the market has calmed down a bit because it seems that business cases make sense.
One example — ourselves. We have Bull Mania AI, which is the best ever for analyzing what's happening in the market, getting a morning brief, getting anything. I use it every day to understand what's happening in crypto. I just asked it here: "What's happening on the Robinhood chain?" — just in the last 96 hours. It gives you everything. It has all of the data integrated. It has all of the influencers included. It knows which influencers, it gets all the data. It's like fully plugged into the crypto markets and influencer markets and everything. It links to everything. It has all of these integrations. It's the best AI for crypto.
So here is where all our members get it for free, included in Bull Mania, which means that we now have more demand for Bull Mania than ever. We are a prime example of how the AI revolution has gone from the clients — people who are joining Bull Mania — all the way to these big tech companies in the data centers where they're building out infrastructure.
From this perspective, Anthropic and OpenAI have a good chance to do these massive IPOs, because right now the market seems to be bullish on AI and not that worried about the bubble like a few months ago. They really need to use the time, because this can change. In a month, maybe it's different. Maybe bad data starts coming out. Things change very, very fast in the financial markets.
If they do these big IPOs, there's going to be a lot of money transferred from TradFi into the hands of all of these people that work there and create all of these AIs. And the question is going to be: what are they going to do with the money? Employee lockups expire usually 180 days from IPO. You will likely see San Francisco real estate get a nice pump. Although, if you are rich, I would not buy San Francisco real estate. Instead, I would start building my connection to a low-tax jurisdiction. If you get the money, the last thing you want to do is establish yourself in a high-tax jurisdiction. You still have to tax it now that you get the money and you are there, but if you plan to not work, you need to get out. Don't buy San Francisco real estate. Buy low-tax jurisdiction real estate.
But anyway, that's likely going to go up somewhat — San Francisco real estate, because people don't think too much — and crypto. Because crypto is the best opportunity for everyone now. It's so low, and a lot of these geeks understand crypto. For them, it's easy, easy, easy.
Scott Bessent on the US Economy and Canada
Look here. Scott Bessent is speaking about the fact that they can increase the debt. He's saying that debt is not a problem, there's no concern of rising debt, the US market is the best performing among its global peers. Very important. So this is another bullish thing. The money will keep coming.
Now, Bessent has a bit of a spicy take on Canada. Let's listen to Scott Bessent.
Interviewer: "Are you meeting with your Canadian counterpart here?"
Scott Bessent: "I am."
Interviewer: "Because I guess markets are wondering if we're now in a tit-for-tat trade war with Canada."
Scott Bessent: "Well, I don't think you can be in a tit-for-tat with someone who's 13 times larger than you are."
Interviewer: "They say they're doing okay."
Scott Bessent: "What else are they going to say? Look, I think this is very unfortunate that Prime Minister Carney has turned this into a political shouting match. I mean, we're not at war with Canada. How are we going to be at war with Canada? What are they going to do — take their two submarines from the Edmonton Mall and sick them on us?"
Ivan: I love Scott Bessent. You don't mess with Scott Bessent. I can tell that you don't mess with Scott Bessent. Elon Musk tried messing with Scott Bessent — he got a black eye. You can Google that. Elon Musk, Scott Bessent, ninja moves. Literally Google it. I'm not kidding. I'm not making it up.
Before this administration really got going, you remember Elon Musk tried to do a lot of cuts — a lot of cuts — and Scott Bessent did not like DOGE. He did not like the cuts because it messes with his budget and GDP if you have a bunch of unemployment. There was a big conflict of interest between Elon Musk and Scott Bessent, because Elon Musk wants the DOGE, the cut, the efficiency, yada yada. Scott Bessent — if you cut so many jobs, they're going to go on unemployment. It's not good. All of these different people in government, they're needed for the economy to function. You remove them — what are they going to do? They're going to go unemployed.
Ideally, you should have people making their own money in the private sector. Ideally — I mean, listen, I'm a capitalist. I don't want anyone to be in government. Ideally, you should have people working in the private sector, making business, making money, providing service, and then a few guys just administering the government. That's it. But listen, in the US, when you have such a big country, you cannot be that purely capitalistic, because you have so many people who work in government their whole life. What are they going to do? You have millions and millions of them.
In Singapore, Hong Kong — small jurisdictions — you can live the capitalistic dream. That's why they're so great for business. But in a big country, you have such big groups of players. They don't want to work, but they vote for you, so you need to ensure they're happy. That's why big countries normally are not the best jurisdictions for business — they have so many interest groups they have to cater to. The crème de la crème for business is always the small countries where they don't have too many of these playbook groups to appeal to, and they can say: "Listen, we are open for business. Small government, efficient. Everyone go do business."
Health and Fitness in the Bull Market
A bit of a side note, but health, guys. Very important. You know, I was not in the best shape earlier this year. Way better now. I can tell you health is so, so important. It doesn't matter how much Bitcoin you have. You have the best watch, the best plane — if you're not healthy, you're in bad shape, it all doesn't matter.
For example, we all work here to make money in crypto, to earn, to trade, to get money. But the thing is, you can have the cheapest clothes and look amazing if you're fit, or you can have all the wealth and expensive things and they will not make you look good if you are fat. No clothes can make you look good if you're out of shape.
For me personally, I was a million percent focused on crypto, on trading, on business. I was so, so focused on wealth that health was a bit secondary. But you see a big difference. I think after the age of approximately 25, you become very ugly very fast if you don't take care of yourself. And also energy level — after the age of 25, all of the freebies that you get from nature, they end. There are no more freebies. You eat too much, fat is going to accumulate very, very fast. You see also a big difference especially after 30, 35 — people that take care of themselves and the ones that don't. It's such a big deviation.
So as we enter the bull market, just a reminder: health is very important. In a bull market in the past, I never took care of myself. I only looked at the charts, the cryptos. It's 24/7. But you have to take care of yourself.
I'm going to make you a full story very soon about going from being a big freaking whale — my fat percentage was so big, it was crazy. I barely fit in the frame. I had to zoom out so much.
And another thing: most people, when they see this, they get inspired. But there's a small percent who think, "Oh, I haven't been able to do it, I need something external." And you know what kind of mindset do you have to be in to think that to lose weight, you need a chemical? Because at the end of the day, losing weight is simple. It's not easy, but it's simple. It's a caloric deficit. You need to lift heavier in the gym. That's it. It's not complex.
Seeing how many people think that you have to do something external to lose weight is crazy, because it also means that people don't really believe in themselves. If you think that you need an external chemical to go down in weight, it's very bad, because you can do it yourself. Don't take any chemical. I highly, highly advise not to take chemicals, because you need to change your lifestyle. Otherwise you're going to be addicted for the rest of your life to chemicals, and it's not good. The thing is, it's not hard to not be fat. It does take a bit of a transformation in your brain, because it's simple but it's not easy — people have bad mindset. I was there myself. You just have to not eat as much as you ate before and go to the gym and lift heavier every day. On a big picture, that's it. Obviously there are many details, but on a big picture, that's it. You don't need any chemical for that.
If you want to be Arnold Schwarzenegger, you want to be Mr. Olympia — for that, natural, you cannot be Mr. Olympia naturally, obviously. But to be in good shape, no one needs chemicals. You just need to lose the freaking fat.
As we get into the bull market, it's very important. Why? Because in a bull market in the past, I never took care of myself. I only looked at the charts and the cryptos. It's 24/7. But you have to take care of yourself.
Robinhood Chain Volume and Meme Coin Risks
Another signal that the bull market is coming back is that the memes are flying. We're not in the trenches currently. The reason why I'm not in the trenches is because Bitcoin is still bearish. We don't really have the bull market fully confirmed and the odds are stacked against you.
But that being said, if you are interested, there are opportunities. For example, lately you've had Pawns. Everyone's speaking about how much money they made on the Pawns fly. But here is why I think it's too early to participate: again, the odds are stacked against you. You're going to lose so much money before you get any runner. This Pawns one has been a bit of a runner. But I just want to highlight that the liquidity in it is $3.8 million. This is the important thing about all of the trenches. You are most likely not going to make any money, especially now, because again we're still not in a bull trend.
When we are in a bull trend, you have more odds. But now you have such small liquidity. Let's say you made some money — like this guy, for example, who's been tweeting that he made like $3.5 million in Pawns. He cannot take it out. He can maybe take out a few hundred thousand, because as he starts selling, the liquidity goes to zero very, very fast. So when you see all of the screenshots, follow the strategy.
I see many people writing me: "Ivan, what's the next Pawns? I want the next Pawns. I missed the Pawns. Can you give me the next Pawns?" I tell them: listen, it's not the time yet. When Bitcoin goes bull, we have confirmation of the bull market — okay, we can be more into the trenches, because then the liquidity is going to be proper.
For most people who are not in the trenches — for you to be able to participate there and have a good risk/reward, you need a massive bull market so most things you buy go up at least temporarily. Now it's still too much PvP. You buy something in the trenches, it's so much PvP, odds are it's going to go down. Sometimes occasionally you will have a runner like Pawns or like Anom. Basically we have two runners — Pawns and Anom. But it's two out of like a trillion that went to zero. And even if you make any kind of money, if it's meaningful amounts, you cannot even take it out currently, the way it is with all of the liquidity being so low.
So just a reminder to follow the strategy. There is no need to FOMO into anything. Look at all of these Robinhood coins — there is a lot of volume, but liquidity is $3 million, $2 million, $600K. Any kind of meaningful amount you make, you will have to give it back.
Now, of course, it depends on your interest. Some people — for example, in Bull Mania, we have Tio. Tio posts all the time how much he's making with all the different memes. He made 45x with Pawns. Fantastic. So if this is your passion, this is your interest, it's another story. If you really know monitoring the market all the time, we have a full course on meme trading in Bull Mania also.
But for most people — and for you guys who are watching, I know our audience — if I know you correctly, guys, you're not this 20-year-old ADHD kid. Many of you guys are 30, 40, 50. And for you to come in there and say, "Hey, let me make some money off the 20-year-old, 18-year-old, 15-year-old Gen Z's," because you think you understand the meme culture or whatever — the odds are stacked against you. You're going to be robbed.
We discussed a few of these memes last year before the bull market ended in like March, April last year, and then I see some poor guy telling me: "Ivan, what about this meme you spoke about three months ago?" Like, what do you mean? It was three months ago. It was trenches, man. "Yeah, I bought it for the long." I'm like, man, what do you mean? It's freaking trenches. Since the trenches, the Gen Z's went on to like 20 new coins, and your coin — no one cares about it. It's not Bitcoin.
So if you're not that person that moves from narrative to narrative to narrative very fast, understands where the wind is blowing on social media, all of the culture, memes, all of the references — stay out of the trenches. For you, staying out of the trenches is going to be enough. There's going to be enough profit from the proper coins. And the only exception is when you have a crazy altcoin season, a crazy bull market — then it's better risk/reward because most of the trench stuff goes up. But it's going to go down to zero anyway sooner or later. So it's a bit of musical chairs.
EU Designates ChatGPT as a "Very Large Online Search Engine"
The European Commission has now said that they designated ChatGPT as a very large online search engine. The bureaucrats — they're salivating. They love this. They designated ChatGPT as a very large online search engine. They are wetting themselves, I think, just by having the document designation. "Very large online search" — oh man, the bureaucrats love themselves.
Big shout out to the EU. The greatest regulation, the greatest innovation, the greatest moves forward when it comes to AI. Without the EU, what would ChatGPT be? How would you use GPT without it being properly designated as a very large online search engine? Everyone should be thankful to the EU for giving us clarity — regulatory clarity on the fact that ChatGPT is a very large online search engine. Fantastic.
Robinhood Chain vs. Monad — Adoption and Liquidity
Going back to Robinhood. Robinhood chain has a lot of volume. While I don't think it's a good idea to be in the trenches now — because again, Bitcoin is still below the bull flip, we're still accumulating Bitcoin slowly — Robinhood chain itself is having a lot of adoption. People are trading there. There's a lot of adoption. There's no way to buy Robinhood chain as a coin, but you can buy the stock. The stock is actually quite good. It is in a bull trend. It has resistance now, so just be aware that potentially it gets rejected from resistance. But accumulating Robinhood stock if you are bullish on the Robinhood chain — good idea. It's in a bull trend.
Q&A — Monad, Kaspa, Pango, Seeker, and Altcoin Strategy
Monad: Monad is quiet. It needs to go above the yellow line for us to be interested, because it went bull trend, then it lost the initiative, and now we just need to confirm the breakout. In terms of the chain, I don't see too many stats. I don't see anything. Let me ask Bull Mania AI — "What's the latest on Monad? Narrative, adoption, buzz." You see instantly here — the biggest accounts, Kon, he is the founder. Phantom — oh, they removed Monad. Exactly. Very bearish on Monad. They removed Monad.
Basically, guys, they have "Gmonad" and "Gon" as a fundamental. It just needs to go bull trend. There's obviously not like on Robinhood chain where you have all of these memes, all of this trading. If you compare Monad chain to Robinhood chain, it's like night and day. It's not even comparable. But there's no way to buy Robinhood chain — you have to buy the Robinhood stock. So Monad, it needs to pump. That's it. There's no revenue share, there's no big upside mechanism — not too much basically.
Kaspa: Yeah, it's a bear trend. Don't worry too much. Wait for it to be bullish. That's it. It's a bear trend.
Pango: Pango is bullish here, but it's bearish everywhere else. It didn't flip bullish across the major exchanges. You actually got a bit of rejection here. You need the biggest exchanges to agree on a flip. So yeah, it's just bearish.
Seeker (SKR): Seeker is up a lot. Solana is in a bull trend, and this is like a derivative of Solana. Personally, I'm not a big fan of this kind of instant candle, because I want a proper trend where there is supply and demand, there is volume, there are coins changing hands. When you have such a big spike — like 200% in a week — this can be anything. This can be a fat finger. Not too many people participated. Not many coins changed hands.
That being said, it's still a bull trend. But you see, when you have such a big spike, the bear trend is so low, you have just bigger risk. So if you trade it, take a good stop loss. Follow mechanical rules. But ideally, I want more confirmation — like Solana, for example, where many coins changed hands, which means that you have confirmation that the market really thinks Solana should be at $102. When you have a big candle like this, it could be that people are like, "Holy — let me dump this crap." It went up so much, no one had time to dump here. So that's the only thing — low volume. But at the same time, that's the nature of small caps.
This is not my best chart. I don't like when it's a boop — 3x out of nowhere, low liquidity. But that being said, it's bullish now. Don't chase it. There's no way to predict it. The only way we can have nice risk/reward is when a new bull trend happens. If it blasts like this from the bottoms to 3x, it is a bull trend. It can easily continue to the upside. So if you want exposure to Seeker, it's way better now than during a bear trend. But yeah, it's a very big, low-liquidity candle. You have just higher risk. Set a nice stop loss and you're good.
Conclusion: bullish, but set a nice stop loss. And just know this theory — when you have a big candle like this on a low-liquidity coin, it may just be not too many coins changing hands, and the market hasn't really confirmed it.
Leveraged Trading and Expected Value in Bull Trends
When it comes to discounts — if you are in a bull trend, discounts are for buying. Why? Because bull trend by definition continues up with the highest likelihood. When you have a bear trend, you don't want to be in it. You want to confirm bull trend first, because whatever you buy in a bear trend — the expected value is that it's going to go lower. You always want to look at expected value. Very important. Always, always.
And the thing is, if you want more volatility, you can create it by using Bybit or Weex — you can see the exchanges I use in the description — for leverage. With good risk management, which we teach in Bull Mania, you actually can use leverage. For example, this guy got 300% in a confirmed bull trend without trying to guess the bottom, without trying to — because it's impossible to guess the bottom. No one can do it.
If you try to guess the bottom to catch such a candle, you're doing yourself a big disservice. Because like we discussed a few streams ago, in a bear trend, bottoms become new bottoms. That's the expected value. If you run a simulation a million times, a bottom is going to be a new bottom. So whatever you think is the bottom, it's likely not the bottom.
In a bull trend, it's vice versa. In a bull trend, a new high is expected to produce a higher high. That's why many people get confused when we teach them that actually an all-time high in a bull trend is not bad. It's not as good as going in early in a bull trend — like now, Solana for example, or ETH, or there are many new bull trends. That's the best. But the second best is when you have a break of psychological round numbers, or for example when you have a new all-time high in a bull trend, because highs become new highs. That's the definition of a bull trend. Look at the S&P. Look at Bitcoin. Whenever there is a high in a bull market, likely there's going to be a higher high. Not always — at some point it's the final high and then it's bear. But then you have a stop loss, you're good.
If you have a strategy, you don't have this pleb question of "but what if, what if, what if?" It's all handled. Any question you have — believe me, there's no new question for me. I know all your questions beforehand. Whatever question you think you have, we have answers to everything. Instead of guessing the bottom, you have a confirmed uptrend, you enter, you can use leverage if you know the mechanical rules, you ride the uptrends, you have good risk/reward, and you don't have to guess anything. Look — Hyperliquid 77%, bam, fantastic. ENA, Soul — it's uptrend. All of these are uptrends, meaning that expected value is higher. Always, always think about expected value.
Closing — Locking In for Q3/Q4
Guys, we're at the one-hour mark. Fantastic time together. I'm now back in my main studio. We were a few months in another one, but it's so nice. I feel like I'm ready. I'm ready to lock in. I'm ready to lock in for Q3, Q4, October. We bottom out. Valhalla. I'm ready, guys, to lock in. I'm going to be sitting here every day. I'm going to be holding you by the hand.