Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's potential bull market flip signal and altcoin opportunities
Ivan on Tech delivers a solo market analysis on Bitcoin approaching a key weekly bull/bear flip level, with commentary on macro liquidity signals and altcoin positioning.
Summary
Ivan on Tech presents a bullish case for Bitcoin based on its approach to what he calls the "money line" or "bull flip" level on the weekly chart — a moving average threshold that, if closed above, he argues would confirm the return of a bull market. He draws parallels to January 2023, when a similar weekly close marked the end of the previous bear market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments about unlimited liquidity support for the bond market and no ceiling on US national debt are cited as major macro catalysts. Ivan emphasizes discipline over emotion, warning viewers against going heavily leveraged before the weekly close is confirmed, while also discussing altcoin opportunities in Solana, ETH, XRP, and Hyperliquid once the bull flip is confirmed.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Approaching the Weekly Bull Flip Level
Ivan on Tech: Oh yes, oh yes, yes, oh yes. Guys, welcome to another episode. And as you can see right now, we do have crazy, crazy times. Bitcoin on the weekly time frame almost went above the bull flip. If we go above the bull flip, it means that the bull market is back — with the highest likelihood, with a very big fat chance.
If we close the weekly above the bull market flip here, the money line flip on the weekly is going to be Valhalla — similar to what we saw right here after the last bear market in 2023. January 2023 marked the historic start of the last bull market. We ended the last bear, went into the last bull. Now guys, this time around it is very similar. We're almost a year since the October peak. We sold in October. We've been accumulating here within the buy zone. Now we're pumping back.
But what's important to realize is that as long as we're below the flip level, it's bullish — but we have to be calm. We have to accumulate slowly. When we go bull here on the money line, we will be accumulating like mfers. This is the signal that bull market is back. Very important. Keep your emotions in check.
It is extremely bullish times. Scott Bessent said that they have unlimited liquidity to pump up the bond market. Many, many stars are aligning for the next great bull. But we follow the plan. We stay disciplined. We stay calm. We execute like very calm, coolheaded people in this glorious bull.
Which means that we need this to close bullish, guys. We need us to go above it and close the week. If we don't close the week, we still risk some downside — maybe a retest. For example, we can just retest this yellow line and then continue. Anything can happen as long as we don't close above. We have to be collected. We have to be calm. We accumulate slowly below the flip and then fast when the flip happens.
Altcoin Season and MicroStrategy
Also, guys, when the flip happens — here's the best thing. The shitcoins, the shitcoin season will be officially open when Bitcoin closes above the money line. It still hasn't happened yet. But if it closes above the money line, guys, the coins, they're coming and they're coming in waves. And that's when you will have very, very, very nice risk/reward. It's going to be fantastic risk/reward in shitcoins.
Also, when you have the bull market come back, all of the crypto stocks including MSTR will be mooning to Valhalla. And as you know, our tradition here is to watch all of the AI slop ads that Saylor posts. He just posted another one which is a bit of a song. It matches the energy of the market. It matches the energy of the chat. So listen to this.
MicroStrategy AI Ad (sung):
"Bitcoin is digital capital. MSTRC is digital credit. You thought Strategy just buys Bitcoin? Well, there's a little more embedded. MSTR is amplified Bitcoin — up more, down more, that's the game. Bitcoin drops by 50, MSTR can drop 75. Buy Bitcoin, hold 10 years. Ignore the noise. Survive the fears. Fix the credit. Fix the equity. That's the Strategy.
Buy Bitcoin. Sell Bitcoin. We've got to be prepared either way. The more Bitcoin that we buy, the higher goes the price someday. Want us buying cash flow companies? No thanks. We know our lane. Our business is digital credit. Why complicate the game? We want to be the JP Morgan of the digital asset. MSTRC's our iPhone moment. That's the product we're building today.
But Michael, my shares are down. I feel your pain, my friend. I own more than 19 million shares."
Ivan on Tech: Like — Michael, my shares are down 80% and the only thing you get back is "I feel your pain, my friend." I feel your pain, my friend. I own more than 19 million shares.
MicroStrategy AI Ad (continued):
"Anyway, borrow dollars, borrow yen, and invest it into BTC. Pay 10 and call it 30. That's the spread we want to see. Don't speculate from day to day. More than four years, 10's the way."
Ivan on Tech: Guys, bull market. In bull market, we love Strategy. In bear market, they're fugazi — we don't touch. But bull market. Let's see if we can get into the bull flip. As you can see, they're also feeling the bull. They're also feeling the bull because it is leveraged Bitcoin. MicroStrategy is leveraged Bitcoin with a bit of a Saylor factor, Saylor risk, but also Saylor promotion. You will have more violent, speculative, and volatile moves. So when Bitcoin moves up a bit, MicroStrategy is likely to move up more. Personally, I'm not touching Strategy — because you can do the same using leverage on exchanges where you have full control, you set a stop loss.
Scott Bessent's Unlimited Liquidity Announcement
Just to recap what has happened, guys. Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, said that they will deploy unlimited liquidity. It's not capped. Basically he said that it's not capped to $4 billion. They announced a few days ago that they will be buying with at least $4 billion per time. But then yesterday he came out and said it's actually unlimited. And also — oh, by the way — there is nothing magic about the $40 trillion number, which is the US national debt. They went above it. So basically it says there is no limit to the debt. There is no limit to how much money we're going to put into the bond market. There is no limit to inflation. There's no limit to anything. There is no limit.
So when Bitcoin hears this, especially after a year of bear, especially after a year of being wrecked — oh, it's a big catalyst, guys. It's a big fat catalyst. Scott Bessent single-handedly is starting this glorious, this amazing bull market. Listen to this.
Scott Bessent (clip): "There's nothing magic about the $40 trillion number, and we can grow our way out of that. But what we do want to signal is — I think that there's been a lot of misinformation in terms of what's going on with the deficit, what's going on with the deficit to GDP. We actually had a fiscal consolidation for the calendar year 2025. We were at about 5.7% of GDP. And one of the things that's temporary here that's influencing the deficit has been these tariff refunds, and we won't have to do that again. And Ambassador Greer through the 301 process is re-implementing—"
Ivan on Tech: Then it's a bunch of mental gymnastics. Okay, we just have more debt. You can compare different ratios and so on and so forth. But the end result is more debt, more interest to pay, more issues that will require them to print money to buy the bonds.
This is the problem with the debt — you have so much debt, which means that the change in interest rates really affects your budget. And now that the interest rates are so high, the yields on the bonds are so high, and the debt is so big, they have to buy the bonds themselves to get down the interest rate. So there is definitely a big issue with the debt. Otherwise they wouldn't be buying their own debt back in order to get down the interest rate.
And also guys, as we're going through this insane bull market fueled by the US government — literally fueled by the US government — we have to take it one step at a time. When we see the bull flip in Bitcoin, that's going to be the green light. That's going to be the green light to go.
Discipline Over Emotion — Following the Plan
The rebirth of shitcoins is going to be glorious, especially with the new shitcoins, especially with what's happening in this industry. As you know, new launchpads, new everything comes new — okay, that's the biggest opportunity. Then you of course have the comeback of the existing players, whether it's Solana, whether it is Hyperliquid — Hyperliquid just goes to all-time high, there's no comeback even needed. But the big opportunity is going to be in the new shitcoins.
And something very important is that you should not beg the market to pump your old bags. This is so important. You remember how ETH Maxis got so angry because Solana pumped. They wanted ETH to pump, but ETH did not pump a lot. ETH barely went to all-time high last cycle, and then Solana pumped a lot, and they got so angry because they wanted ETH to pump. They were super opinionated. They really felt that they had a moral high ground, that everything else is a scam and it should pump and Solana should not pump. And they got so, so angry because they basically missed the entire bull market. The last bull market they totally missed.
So you need to be where the pump is. You have to respect the pump in all assets. This is a saying we've been saying here for soon 10-plus years. You have to respect the pump in all assets. It's not a necessity that your bags that destroyed you and went down are the same bags that are going to save you. We talk about it a lot in Bullmania — you have to be where the pump is. You need to ensure that you are in bull trends. You have to respect the pump in all assets. Otherwise you're rejecting the pump from your life. You just become more angry. You see that everything is pumping but your stuff is not pumping. That's the last thing you want.
And it's so common actually in the bull market. People are more angry than in the bear market, because in the bear market we're all equally wrecked. You're down 90%, your neighbor's down 90%, everyone is down 90% — except if you sold in October like we did. But other than that, it's very, very nice to see that if you're down, everyone is down.
In the bull market it's different, because you are stuck holding your bag. You don't listen. You don't have the money line. Then you complain that the world is unfair. It's so unfair that your glorious shitcoin doesn't pump and every other scam pumps. You keep crying. You keep spamming. You keep asking, "Ivan, talk about my shitcoin, it's so great fundamentals." No one cares, man. No one cares about your shitcoin.
Institutional Positioning and Market Signals
Moving on, guys. Strategy says 17 institutional investors across eight countries increased their MicroStrategy positions during Q2. Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Capital International Investors, Vanguard, State Street — everyone is positioning very, very nicely for the next glorious pump. That's exactly what's happening.
Saylor is just over $2K away from being in the green again. In the green again. Bitcoin breaks $73K — well, actually now it's outdated. Now Saylor should be in profit again, and should be to the upside pumping in a very nice way, finally, after five years in Bitcoin. He's accumulating Bitcoin, but in such a weird way — buying high, selling low. But you know, God bless. His stock is going to pump a lot anyway in the bull because everything pumps in bull.
Look here. Lyn Alden just said live on CNBC that by almost every metric the Bitcoin bottom is in, the fast money is out. Only the slow money is still holding. Yes. Strategy will not be selling. They will not be selling. Hopefully they're going to be buying. This is a buying opportunity. The Treasury and Fed will be moving to financial repression. There are not many downside catalysts. What's the downside? We already had so much downside. All the shitcoins are destroyed.
And by the way, you know, we speak a lot on this channel about being humble — probably one of the most humble channels in crypto. But we have such great performance and we played the cycle so well. We started selling in October and rotated into AI stocks. Not because I predicted anything — it's because the chart literally showed us. We're good at reasoning the chart. The chart said, "Hey, it's bear trend, GTFO." And all of the AI stocks were just starting bull trends, so we jumped into that just based on the trends.
And look here — we had many fake pumps during the bear market in Bitcoin. Many, many fake pumps. You remember in May I was yelling to you, "It's a fake pump! Fake pump, fake pump!" I was yelling, yelling, yelling. We called all pumps fake during the bear market and we were fully correct. But we're not calling this one fake. Why? Because of humility. Because we're humble.
Listen, we already won the game. There's not much else to win when it comes to this bear market. We already won Champions League. We already won Europa League, English League, Spain — we already won all of it. We won the bear. We destroyed the bear. We sold in October. We got into AI stocks. So what else to win? Okay, maybe it goes down a bit lower. Who cares? Literally, who cares?
You have to be humble. You have to see when the game is won. It's won. You don't have to be fully 100% certain that you buy the bottom and sell the top. It's impossible. You have to see where on the scale of probability you more or less have won the game. In October, we won the game of bull — we said finito. And it turned out October 8th was kind of the day of the top. Now, during the last two months, we said, "Hey, we won the game of the bear. We won the game of the bear around the 200 moving average. We reload. We reload. We reload." If it goes lower, we reload lower also. It's okay. We already won the game. When you've won the game, you stop playing.
So by being humble, by having a lot of humility, we won the bull, we won the bear. And whether it's a fakeout or not literally doesn't matter. The upside is bigger. You always have to run the upside versus downside scenarios in your brain to understand how to position yourself. You don't have to be 100% correct. No one is always 100% correct. No one knows the future. No one can tell you exactly what's going to happen.
Peter Schiff and Spot vs. Leverage Dynamics
Peter Schiff doesn't respect the pump. He says the Bitcoin rally is a fakeout and tells investors to sell Bitcoin for gold. Time to be bearish was in October, Peter. It was in October.
Now look here — Bitcoin demand turns positive across spot and perpetual futures. So this rally, this pump, it's actually not driven by leverage. It's driven by spot, which is exactly what you want to see in the coming bull when the bull starts. You want to be in assets where there is big spot demand. Spot demand is the most important thing.
Bitcoin rally driven by spot, not leverage. 4.5% futures basis remains in the bearish zone — need 5% to cross into neutral territory. So you're going to have still short squeezes. There's still going to be all kinds of pumps, and it's only the beginning, guys. The bull market is going to come back. There's a big chance that this is the pump that takes us there again. We need to close bullish on the weekly. It hasn't happened yet.
By the way, someone said that this is the biggest weekly candle in Bitcoin history. Because this one now pumped — let me see. 15K. Did we ever see a 15K candle in Bitcoin history? This one was 11K. It's probably true, guys, that we have the largest candle now in Bitcoin history. When you have such a signal, you cannot ignore it, man. You cannot ignore it. You cannot be bearish, man. When you have this kind of signal, especially if we close bullish here — oh my god.
Now, some people are overly emotional. Their little emotional play in their head is telling them to FOMO so much they skip the plan. Maybe they go leverage now. Just follow the plan. Yes. Follow the plan. I'm bullish, but I'm following the plan. For me, we have to close. We have to close above for us to go bull, for us to rotate into altcoins heavily. You become emotional, maybe it is a temporary fakeout. It's possible. But we're humble enough to be in a position where we're bullish. We're accumulating, but we need the confirmation. We need the confirmation.
Spot ETF volume surpasses $5.3 billion. You see the FOMO from institutions. They're positioning themselves also for the next glorious bull.
Q&A — Altcoin Analysis: XRP, Solana, ETH, Hyperliquid
Let's go to Q&A. Should we go bull flip on the Bitcoin money line? It means that the risk/reward is very good in all coins. You're going to have Bitcoin likely progressing towards 100K in the coming months. And that's again, it's only the start of the bull. It's only the start. If we go to 100K, it's only the start of the bull.
What's going on with XRP? Let's check. We respect the pump in all assets. Now, many people don't know, but this saying — "respect the pump" — it actually came because we were analyzing XRP. This was like in 2017. We were analyzing XRP. So just so you know what we're speaking about here — this is from like six years ago or something. The pump always, guys — respect the pump. I respect the pump in all assets. Why? Because it's kind of like karma. You know, the power of the pump always comes back to you if you respect the pump of other people. Whatever pumps, you have to pay respect. Because otherwise if you're like, "Oh my god, this scam coin is pumping again" — actually you are kind of rejecting the pump from your life. Maybe it's a bit out there, a bit woo-woo. But we all got to believe in something, and I do believe in the power of the pump.
The reason we spoke about it is because on that stream people were saying that XRP is a scam. XRP is a scam. But it pumped — like in that stream I remember, maybe 15% or something. Anyway, XRP pumped during that time, and now it's the same. People are saying it's a scam. But we respect the power of the pump. It is a bull trend. Could it be a fakeout? So if you enter, set a stop loss, because Bitcoin is still very close to flipping bullish but still needs to be careful.
Can we see something like this in XRP — just a fakeout? It's always possible when you have any kind of tool such as the money line or any other indicator. It's a tool. So you need to know how to use it. You need to set a nice stop loss so in case it's a fakeout, you're good and maybe you can even capture profit. But it's a good risk/reward. Always a new bull trend is good risk/reward.
This week's candle will be known as the Trump candle or the Scott Bessent candle. To be fair, Scott Bessent is probably the one that is really pushing more here — because of all of the announcements with liquidity and so forth.
If Solana goes here bullish at $93 — oh, guys, if we go bullish at $93, it's bull market, guys. Then we forget the $30 buy zone. Then we speak about Solana going to $1,000 again. Super simple. If this is weird to you — that here we're speaking about Solana could drop to $30 and now when it's bull we're bullish — you don't know the markets. We're bearish in bear market and we're bullish in bull market. Should we go bull here on Solana, we have big fat targets. We're going to go to maybe 300 to begin with, maybe higher. They're going to change some inflation in their coin so it's less inflation, more pump to the chart — very important. So keep that in mind. We may very soon see a totally different take here on Solana because it goes bullish.
By the way, the same is with ETH. ETH — now I love ETH. I love ETH. All of the fugazi L2s, all of the corp chains, all of the slowness of Vitalik changing the roadmap — you know, in the bear market it was bearish. Now, man, it's a bull market. It's bullish. The candle is bullish. We love ETH. Let's go ETH. Let's go.
This is the wisdom of the market. Fundamental — fundamental is secondary. Pumpamental is number one. Always pumpamental. Numero uno. We make money not because of fundamentals — we make money because of pumpamentals. We make money when the ticker goes up, no matter the tech. If the tech is bad but the ticker goes up, you still make money. So why do you care so much about the tech? If the ticker goes up on the chart, we make money. We're here to make money. We're very clear. That's why we're bullish on the greenness of ETH.
Solana still in trend. Zcash — oh, Zcash going to be soon bull trend, guys. Very, very nice. Hyperliquid going to all-time high — very, very nice if it closes the week like this. Good signal also, because it's the highest — it's an all-time high close on the weekly. That's a good signal.
Buying All-Time Highs — The Pleb Trap
The best signal is when you have a new trend — like here was the best time to buy Hyperliquid. But the second best signal is when you go to all-time high and you smash all-time high. So in this case, if we close the week, it's very good.
Here's another secret of the pleb. The essence of the pleb is that the pleb is greedy. Just like now people are going all in 100x in Bitcoin because the little greedy pleb in their brain is telling them to FOMO — the same thing is when the greedy pleb brain says, "Oh no, it's all-time high. I don't want to buy all-time high."
Well, the thing is, when you have a big fat bull trend — for example, let's go to the stock market, not even crypto, let's just go to the S&P 500 — you understand that most of the time it is doing new all-time highs. Here was all-time high, and then here was all-time high, and then here was all-time high, and then here was all-time high, and here was all-time high, and here was all-time high, and here was all-time high. Things that are in bull trend will be making perpetual all-time highs.
So as long as you have risk management, you know how to execute trades — for you it's okay. You enter a position, if it goes against you, it's okay. You have a stop loss, you have risk management, you have everything. Buying all-time high is one of these things that I know the greedy pleb in your brain is telling you to never do — because I've been there. You know, you see a good asset, the best asset in the world, it's pumping so much. And then what happens? You buy some other crap which is at the lows because you feel that you want a cheap deal. You don't want to be buying a good chart at all-time high. You want to be buying a crap chart that is dead and just going lower. What happens? The good chart keeps pumping. Your crap goes down. It never recovers. Congrats. You're so smart.
CFTC and Crypto Regulation
Oh, by the way — is this the CFTC chair? The guy who kind of looked like he bought some insider Hyperliquid yesterday. Is he the CFTC chair? Anyway, he said to his staff to explore new crypto market rules, warning the agency will move ahead on its own if Congress fails to pass legislation. Very, very good. Fantastic.
Closing Thoughts — Hex and Final Remarks
Guys, people asked me to cover Hex. Look here — I just want to highlight something. The Hex and PulseChain influencers, everyone abandoned your ass in the bear. Left you in the bear. One of these influencers, Katy — another influencer in Hex — left you in the bear. They literally stopped posting. Even Richard, your juicy juicy messiah, left you. He only checked in to do a new sacrifice to take more of your money. And then he tweeted unrelated things about hacks of hardware wallets, which doesn't pump your bag.
You know who never stopped checking in? Ivan. We were checking in every all-time low, after all-time low, after all-time low. We were there all the time. We gave you something to speak about, and you're so, so welcome.
That's it, guys. It is a bull market. Let's see if we go to 100K tomorrow — we're going to make a stream tomorrow anyway. If we go to 300K, we're going to make a stream tomorrow. Let's see, guys. Let's see.