BITCOIN: THIS IS URGENT!!!!!! | Ivan on Tech Transcript

Ivan on Tech gives a live Bitcoin market update and covers Robinhood chain, DeFi yield farming, and physical AI stocks

Ivan on Tech hosts a live stream covering Bitcoin's position relative to its bull trend flip, the Robinhood chain ecosystem, DeFi yield farming risks, and physical AI investment opportunities.

Summary

Ivan (Ivan on Tech) delivers a solo live stream addressing viewer concerns about a potential "Bart" pattern (a sharp drop) in Bitcoin, arguing that even if it occurs, it simply represents another buying opportunity near the 200-day moving average. He frames the current moment as the final stage of the bear market, pointing to Trump's stock market optimism and Scott Bessent's treasury buyback program as macro tailwinds. A significant portion of the stream covers the Robinhood chain ecosystem, where Ivan identifies UniSwap, Pawns, Morpho, Cash Cat, and the Hood token as the key assets for gaining exposure to the chain's rapid growth. He also warns viewers against yield farming, comparing it to RuneScape scams, and closes with a brief look at physical AI stocks including Tesla, Symbotic, and Intuitive Surgical.

Key Takeaways

FULL TRANSCRIPT

Bitcoin's position and the "Bart" pattern concern

Ivan: We're going live. Oh yes. Guys, welcome to another episode. As you can see right now, Bitcoin is still at around $77,800. We're right on the flip to the bullish trend, but we are below it. And of course, the number one question I get nowadays is: is this a Bart? Because you did have Benjamin Cowan posting yesterday basically saying that guys, we are going down. It's a B. Be ready for big downside all the way down here. And people are saying, "Ivan, what's going to happen? What happens if Bart comes? How will we survive the Bart? What is going on? Ivan, please tell us. We're bullish, but Bart can happen. What's going on?"

So guys, let me educate you. Let me enlighten you about how to handle the Bart. Can Bart happen? Let's start with a simple question. Can it happen? Anything can happen in the market. Will it happen? We will have to deal with it as it comes. But if Bart happens, we're back in the buy zone and we just deploy a smaller portion of our portfolio here. So it doesn't even matter. You just get to buy more here a bit lower. So if you keep it simple — where we accumulate around the 200-day moving average and then we go heavy bull when we flip bull trend — you literally don't care about the Bart. In fact, the Bart may even be good for you because we're back into that green buy zone where Bitcoin is super cheap and you get to buy even cheaper. You get another discount.

There's no need to make it more complex than it is. There's no need to be concerned. There's no need to be worried about anything. If Bart happens, we take it with both hands and we accumulate very cheaply at around the 200-day moving average if we come back there.

But guys, the thing is we're now soon a year after the top. And Bitcoin will give you a lot of chances to buy cheap, but not endless chances. I mean, you've had now a year to buy cheap — back to $70K, below $70K. I don't know. Maybe it happens, maybe not. I wouldn't count on it.

Here is the most important thing to realize: the upside for Bitcoin is big. Upside is very, very big. But the downside is limited. So what if Bart happens? Okay, Bart happens. What are you going to do? Are you going to cry? Because I can tell you something, guys — if Bart happens, the bears will not buy anyway. They will not buy anyway. They will have another reason not to buy. If Bart happens, guess what? People will be saying, "Oh, now we're going to go to 50. Oh, now we're going to retest the lows." Okay, let's say Bart happens. We go back into the green buy zone. Now what are they going to say? They're going to say, "Oh, maybe we go and retest 57." Maybe, maybe, maybe. I mean, who the hell knows? Anything can happen. We're here to look at probabilities and position ourselves accordingly based on expected value.

So in this situation, personally I'm not worried about Bart. I'm not worried about an interest rate hike either. It's another FUD people have in their brain. Poor, poor plebas. They're so worried about Bart. They're so worried about the interest rate hike. "Ivan, what's going to happen if the interest rate goes up?" I told you yesterday — take it easy. Don't worry. Be happy. There is not an issue if the interest rate goes up. The issue is that many people will miss the next bull market. That's the bigger issue.

The interest rate — we're now a year into this bear cycle. Bad news don't matter at this point. Now, can we still go below? Possible. But it is the time to be bull. We're very close to flipping bullish. If we go down, see it as a gift from Satoshi to get a bit cheaper Bitcoin. But all in all, we are accumulating slowly, and then we're going to be accumulating like very, very fast. We're going to be accumulating above the bull flip. So buy — this is the final crescendo of the bear. The bear is coming to an end.

Trump, Scott Bessent, and the macro case for crypto

Here's where we have to look at the upside. You have Trump himself coming out saying that the stock market is going to keep pumping very, very high — that the pump is not cancelled. Listen to this:

Trump: "Well, the good news is the stock market hits new records every day. So the stock market wasn't affected — although it would even be higher, believe it or not. The stock market will go up."

Ivan: Up from Trump. And guys, if there is one thing you need to trust Trump on, it is the stock market. Yes, everything else — drain the swamp, many other things he said — maybe not. You have to be very skeptical. But one thing he has been consistently good at, both in his first term and in his second term, is the stock market. There is one thing where Trump is a certified legit source of news, and that is that the stock market under Trump goes up — and goes up a lot. Look at what happened in the last presidency and look at what's happening now.

So there is the biggest reason to be bull now. The cycle is coming to an end. We have now one year — you know the drill — one year since the peak. Bear market is approximately one year. But then also everything around us with the treasury market, where Scott Bessent, head of the US Treasury, is now buying back treasuries from the market — buying back the bonds. And also today they will be deploying $2 billion in order to buy back their own debt. So they will be deploying literally today. As we're speaking, Scott Bessent is clicking the button to buy back the debt.

This is QE. It's QE in another form with another wrapper. But at the end of the day it's the same — it's the government creating money. In this case it goes from the US budget. But where does the US budget come from? At the end of the day it will come from the printer. All roads lead to the printer. Don't over-analyze too much. All roads are leading to the printer. In this case you have Scott Bessent deploying government budget — so not directly printing, but indirectly printing anyway. All money is going to come from the printer. That's how money is created.

And also you see the bullishness — he is speaking all the time about the fact that we will have to grow our way out of the debt. Don't worry about the debt. He says we'll grow our way out. If Bessent is right and we grow our way out, you want to be long AI stocks. You want to be long crypto. You want to be long all assets. For us now, crypto is more important than AI because some AI stocks are in bear trend. But maybe they recover. We just see crypto as a bigger opportunity because it's been a long bear trend and now it goes bull — and that's the best, when you can get into a new bull trend.

If Bessent is wrong and we inflate our way out, you want to be long Bitcoin. But in my mind, both will work. Bitcoin is at the end of the bear. So if stocks go up, Bitcoin is going to go up. If there is inflation, Bitcoin is going to go up anyway. So in both of these cases, you want to be in crypto. You want to have at least part of your portfolio in crypto. It's very important. No matter who you are, whether you have a big or small portfolio, you need to have the Bitcoin.

Robinhood chain ecosystem — the basket of assets

Let's switch gears a bit. Let's speak about what's happening with the new cycle, because there are things that are accelerating a lot. Robinhood chain is growing so much. It's quite insane. During the last week they did see insane growth in volume. They launched Hype. Everyone was excited about the new thing. Then it died off and now it's back — which is actually a very bullish sign, because you have many new chains that launch and then they die. That's the standard. And we need to see where the chain breaks the mold. In this case, you see Robinhood is breaking the mold heavily. It is basically saying that it's relevant even after the first few days, the first few weeks.

When you look at the different coins that are relevant here — one of you guys actually yesterday highlighted UniSwap being the biggest DEX. UniSwap is killing it when it comes to volume. The whole protocol has exploded since the Robinhood chain launched.

So to have a nice bag — if you're interested in exposure to Robinhood chain assets that are benefiting from its growth — because there's no coin you can just buy like on Solana where if you're bullish Solana you buy Solana. On Robinhood you have to create your own basket of coins. So which are the coins?

UniSwap — because it is the DEX. It is getting all of the benefits of the volume. That's number one.

Then you have Pawns. This is the pump.fun clone. This is basically the casino on Robinhood chain for creating coins. And small PP is adding context here — buy back is almost $1 million daily, and the liquidity on Pawns is actually quite good, 30 to 40 million liquidity.

Next you have Morpho. This is for DeFi yield. Morpho is integrated into all big exchanges — Kraken has Morpho and others.

Cash Cat is the OG meme.

And Hood is the Robinhood stock.

So if you have a basket of all of these and you are bullish on Robinhood as a narrative, as a chain, you basically replicate a kind of coin with Robinhood exposure. And here during the last few days you see the explosion. So all in all, you are still in a very, very early stage. The bull market hasn't even started.

Let's actually check how it looks. UniSwap is in bull trend for quite some time. Here's the best thing with the Bulmania system — with mechanical rules, you don't even have to know too much about what's happening in terms of fundamentals. You just see that on August 3rd it became bull trend and now it's up 40% since the bull trend flip. Obviously now with Robinhood everything is playing in terms of narrative as well. But most importantly it is bullish on the weekly chart. When things go bullish on the weekly chart, we are bullish. Simple as that. And sometimes, like with UniSwap, you see that it goes down a bit, but if it's bull trend, it's bull trend, and it has recovered quite nicely. Now with Robinhood it has all of the momentum.

Let me see Pawns. On the weekly — obviously no trend. Daily — no trend. But hourly, you do have a trend. So use the hourly for Pawns. You'll have to use the CryptoCry.com chart for Pawns if you want to look on TradingView.

Next, let's check Morpho. Morpho is massive. Even before Robinhood they were massive. We discussed them a few weeks ago because you have all kinds of exchanges integrating them. On the weekly — bullish, and it is up also 35% since the weekly flip. So it had a similar trajectory to UniSwap — a bit of a dump and then Valhalla.

Cash Cat — now also with Pawns, the key thing is that they are exiting the on-chain-only stage and getting into central exchanges. I believe they are listed on Binance, which in itself — sometimes a Binance listing is kind of a local top, so always use a stop loss, always be careful — but it is a sign that it is maturing from just degenerate stuff on-chain to being a coin with history on big platforms.

And then of course Robinhood stock has been bullish for quite some time. On the daily it's been bullish since June, and on the weekly it is also bullish since June. There is momentum here. They're coming above this resistance.

Here's where the suits may not really understand the business benefit yet. Robinhood chain is making $2 million a day and paying like $15,000 for data availability fees — split between Arbitrum and ETH. You can open up a lemonade stand and make more money than ETH is doing with what Robinhood is building on top of it. You understand? It's a big problem. This is where people say, "Oh, it's good for ETH." I don't think so. It's mainly good for Robinhood. It's good for Robinhood, and it's good for stuff like UniSwap and Morpho and all of these different protocols that are building on top of Robinhood and gaining revenue — and that revenue can be deployed into the token.

So when you look at this equation, ETH would be the incorrect choice. If you want to ride Robinhood and you buy ETH, you will not ride Robinhood with ETH. They make $2 million per day and pay like $15K for both Arbitrum and ETH fees combined. About 10% goes to Arbitrum. So Arbitrum gets a bit more, but the Arbitrum coin doesn't pump, so it doesn't help anyone basically.

The conclusion is that having exposure to Robinhood chain via Robinhood stock and all of the different coins we just discussed — you can build a basket of it. And the last few days have shifted me personally even more bullish on Robinhood. Why? Because you see the death of the volume and then the return — them proving themselves that it's not just a flash in the pan. Here you have stickiness. And when we see stickiness, we like stickiness.

Also look here — the revenue. All of the Robinhood apps have revenue. Not only does Robinhood have a lot of transactions and a lot of users, but you have revenue. That's very important. Pawns — $1 million per day revenue.

The suits are waking up — DeFi Summer 2.0 thesis

And look at the understanding of the suits, because a lot of money in the next bull market is coming from the suits. It's going to be them putting money into protocols that then either pay dividends or pump the coin. So Hyperliquid, pump.fun clones, sky — you see they're speaking about all these different projects. This is in the Financial Times — like actual paper, printed newspaper that the big suits are reading. Paper-printed newspaper is writing about all of them.

And the undiscovered ones are those on Robinhood chain. Let's see how Arbitrum is doing, because Arbitrum should theoretically also get nice moves from this. And yes — if Arbitrum closes bullish here, it's a new trend. If we can close the week on Arbitrum bullish, it's a new trend. We're bullish Arbitrum if they close bullish here. This is the high they need to take out — the high from May. Should they take it out and close bullish, then we can look at a nice trade here for Arbitrum. Number one, back to this resistance — 35%. Then number two, to this resistance — 100%. So you see how many opportunities there are in this market. Most coins are just now flipping bullish.

DeFi yield farming — the risks and the RuneScape lesson

You guys remember DeFi Summer from 2020? Potentially a bit of DeFi Summer here as well with the Robinhood season. So if we look at the different protocols, you have APR of 900%. This is APR right now — this can change, this can go to zero fast. So keep an eye.

I'm seeing more and more buzz on Twitter about yield opportunities and DeFi Summer. What interested me in DeFi Summer was not necessarily the yield — because I never liked yield. You put money in, it's gone. The only yield I like, guys, is from Donald Trump and Scott Bessent — US Treasury yield. It will not make you rich obviously, but it's yield from the US government, 5% per year. Good. It takes care of living expenses. That yield I like. Everything else — I would rather trade.

For example, let's say there is an explosion in yield opportunities. In most cases it's connected to some kind of coin. You guys remember in DeFi Summer what coins we had? We had Pickle, Yam — the sweet sweet yummy yams — that all went to zero very fast. And all kinds of other ones that pumped temporarily and went to zero.

People are posting four and five digit yields from LP pairing memes with tokenized stocks. And here, in my head, it makes sense with Robinhood. Trump is pumping the stock market. All of these memes are going to be flying so high. It's time to be bullish overall. Stocks pumping, memes pumping, UniSwap getting all the revenue from it. Pawns also getting revenue from it. You marry the interest of the boomer with the interest of the degen. The interest of the suit boomer is that the S&P 500 goes up. Trump is here to deliver on that — that your 401k and everything goes up. And Robinhood chain marries it with the interest of the degen. So your shitcoin goes up, and now it's in a liquidity pool — the same liquidity pool — and we go Valhalla. UniSwap gets revenue from that. Boomers write in their paper newspaper, "Oh look at all of the revenue." The revenue clarity act is in. The SEC is saying it's okay to rev-share. No one worries about being a security. So all the rev-share is happening and it pumps everything.

So the Robinhood thesis in my brain is pretty clear. End to end it makes sense to me — the interest of the boomer, the interest of the degen, the revenue created from that into these coins we discussed, and we all go high. Bitcoin goes bull trend. It's a bull market.

But what about the Bart? What people ask me — what about the Bart? Even if Bart happens, still be bullish. Even if we see a temporary pump, still be bullish. Even if we see a bit of down, still be bullish. And especially if you are in Bulmania, you have mechanical rules — you know when things go bull or bear, you set stop loss. Fantastic. Up only.

Now, the DeFi Summer 2.0 energy — same energy, better assets. In the last DeFi Summer, what did we have? We had mainly made-up Ponzis with Yam and Pickle and everything. You create a coin, coin pumps, and then you can lock up your coin to get another coin and maybe it's going to pump. Here it's also connected to real business — with the stocks, with actual growth. So this ponzinomics may even survive a bit more. But all these guys with a Ponzi — be careful. You understand?

Here's the problem with ponzinomics: how do you set a stop loss? How do you get out of it? If the thing gets hacked or whatever, you have to be very careful. That's why personally I like trading more, because I have more control. Just like in this video we made — we illustrate this here:

"Trust me. This game taught us, guys — when the offer sounds magical, you are the loot. Here, one spell creates more gold. Bitcoin — 21 million. No spell can create another. Entering the market without rules — that is crossing into PvP completely unprepared. Markets are PvP. Bulmania — clear strategies, clear rules. Protect your stack."

Exactly. Just like in RuneScape — if you give your money to someone and it's crazy high yield, there is risk involved. You have to be super careful. Ideally, keep to tokens and trade tokens. Yield, man — you may wake up one day and it's gone. Or not. Maybe you make money. But I like more control. If something happens, I'm out. Stop loss — boop boop boop. Risk calculated. We're out. Mechanical rules the best.

Maybe I'm too paranoid, but just know from the last DeFi Summer — I'm not putting my money in a yield farm. I would rather trade the shitcoin. I said it already five times, but I really want to clarify it. I'm not saying you should not do it. You do you. I'm just telling you what I'm doing. It's not for me. But you know, I cannot put my money everywhere. Maybe it's life-changing for some people. It can be life-changing that you make money. Losing all your money is also a bit of a life change. So my mindset is always — the only yield I trust is Trump, Scott Bessent, US Treasury. Any other yield I don't trust. But some people make a lot of money with it, just so you know.

Just like Guzman is saying — "life-changing yield from $50 million to $3." It is life-changing in most cases. Yes.

Solana vs. Robinhood chain — don't cope, do stuff

Now, this is where I'm bullish Solana because it's bull trend. But I'm not a fan of the cope. Solana has way cheaper fees than Robinhood. But people are making so much money with the shitcoins on Robinhood that — you know what I mean? You're going to switch to Solana to save $0.30 from your transaction fee? It's still low. So Solana just needs to get back the mojo. That's the thing. They need to get back the mojo. I'm bullish Solana because the trend is bullish, and also volume is still the highest. But don't become ETH guys. Solana guys, don't become like ETH guys where you just keep crying and crying that some other chain is taking your lunch. Be better. Get the degens back. Make things that pump. Go do stuff. Don't cry. Don't say that your fee is low and Robinhood is high. No one cares. It's 30 cents, man. People are making ponzis now with 900% yield. So yeah.

I have no tolerance for coping. I only have tolerance for someone coming in there and making stuff.

It's quite interesting — from Alliance DAO — to see two non-crypto companies, Stripe and Robinhood, enter the space and position themselves almost perfectly at two of crypto's most important intersections at the right timing: payments and trading. Crypto payments — obviously Stripe. I don't know what Stripe is doing with their chain, I haven't seen too much. But obviously crypto trading — Robinhood. They cooked. Both companies have done a flawless job positioning themselves for the coming era of agentic finance and tokenization. Hats off to Robinhood chain for playing this. And especially that they had the initial spike in volume and hype, then it died, and now it's back and went higher. For me it's a signal.

Gary Gensler is gone — the regulatory shift

Guys, look here. Two years ago, an SEC commissioner tried to kill open-source blockchains. Now the SEC commissioner is going to be speaking at a Solana conference. We've come very, very far. And people are asking — Ivan, what happened to Gary Gensler? Where is our sweet sweet Gary Gensler?

"Bitcoin is a security."

"You still can't define one."

"I am the SEC."

"Not anymore."

It's brilliant. Big shout out to Small PP for this. Star Wars is fantastic. "I am the SEC." Yeah. So Gary Gensler — no more. We have the new guy in.

Physical AI — Nvidia's prediction and the stocks to watch

Final point on AI. Nvidia's CEO said that physical AI could ultimately be 10x larger than digital AI. And of course you can just ask Bulmania AI if you have Bulmania what it means and which stocks are going to pump. I just asked which companies would benefit from this and created a report in Bulmania AI. It says you have the brains and then you have the humanoids.

So here, for example, you have Tesla. Tesla — let me see what's happening. Actually now it's doing okay. It was down yesterday from around $370 back to $350. Still bare trend, but keep an eye here if Tesla goes bull.

Symbotic. Let's see. Here you could accumulate — it's around the 200-week moving average. If you believe in it long term, fantastic. It went down but it bounced. If you accumulate around the 200-week moving average, that's good. So Symbotic is bad trend — expect more downside — but if you accumulate here around the 200-week moving average, fantastic.

Next, Intuitive Surgical — surgical robots. Yeah, I like these companies that are focused on use case. Here it went below the 200-week. I would just wait for the bull flip, because the bull flip is going to be around the 200-week. So it's going to flip bullish and it's going to be below the 200-week. Just wait for that. Don't make it too complex.

Also, we know nothing about these companies. We're just seeing the chart. That's why just trust the bull flip. If it's a bull flip, then suits are bidding, Wall Street is bidding, everyone is bidding. They did the research for you. You can be bull and ride it. That's it.

Tesla is the purest public humanoid bet, but it's super expensive. Also the problem with Tesla is that if Elon does not put it into SpaceX and unite them, it's not good fundamentals for pumping. Tesla lost pump momentum even before SpaceX was anticipated, because you cannot have two tickers. The founder needs to have one ticker. Two tickers — you spread the buy pressure, spread the liquidity.

Symbotic is already generating revenue from physical AI in warehouses. Intuitive Surgical is a quiet giant that has been doing physical AI in operating rooms for years.

This guy laid out a clear five-name list. You have Teradyne — owns Universal Robots. And another one — let's see. Bull trend, went to all-time high, and now a bit bare. Should it go bull again, keep an eye. Largest industrial robot maker on Earth — Fanuc. Should it go bull, keep an eye. Basically add all of them to your watch list.

Q&A — ADA, Konagra, hospitality, and tea bots

Ivan: Let's go to Q&A — questions, answers, debates. Let's go.

Your thoughts on Konagra? It recently broke trend. I love that you say it broke trend — so you're not asking me about some crap that is in bare trend. Let's check the chart. Just looking at it, it looks good. I like this kind of chart. But what do they do? Mega chicken tenders. See, when you don't know what someone is doing, here's how you do it. You go to scanner.bullmania.com, go to stocks, find your thing. Konagra. There it is. And then you click the AI. Let's see what the hell it's doing.

Where do you see ADA once Bitcoin surpasses $100K? Let's see if ADA has another cycle in it. I mean, you always have the risk of just going IOTA — like IOTA went irrelevant and no one cares about it. ADA is not even in bull trend. Last cycle it didn't even get to all-time high. And now it went below the lows from 2022. So it looks very bad, guys. It looks very bad. It can still recover — nothing is impossible. If it goes to bull trend, maybe it can come back to its highs. Maybe it goes back above the previous cycle. But I think it's tough. Each and every cycle, ADA plays with tougher and tougher competitors. Now you have such tough competition — Robinhood chain, Solana, all kinds of stuff. So what does ADA have to offer? It's just Charles, guys. Listen, it's just Charles. People like Charles and he is preaching. He's doing student ID in Mogadishu or whatever he's doing. I don't know. But that's the only thing they have — Charles. Low fees, about the tech — literally all the tech they do, no one cares. It's not a factor in how the price is going to be. You see now it's all about revenue. The Financial Times is writing in physical paper about protocol revenue. They need revenue, users, et cetera — which ADA doesn't have. They don't have users. It's a ghost chain.

I know many holders still hold it. But be honest — if you hold ADA, how much do you use ADA? Have you actually used it, or do you just hold it on your exchange? Because you see, you're part of the problem. You don't use it. For example, with me — the coins that are in bull trend that I hodl, in many cases I take the ones I use. Now Solana is bull trend. I bought Solana. Why? Because I use Solana. I use Solana for payments every day. Someone pays us in Solana every day. Every day trading. You can buy stocks on Solana also. Hyperliquid — the same. I use Hyperliquid. It's bull trend. Because sometimes you have like a million things going bull trend and you have to pick a bit. The easiest pick is if you use stuff every day.

As Moon Candy is saying — once you use Solana, every other chain feels second. Exactly.

With ADA, you ask yourself — what's happening here? Now of course if it goes bull trend you can have a nice pump anyway. So if it goes bull trend, we're going to be bullish. But there's a big disconnect between the community — what people think about it versus reality. People think it's some big wolf. In reality, it's a small Chihuahua. But the community still thinks they're a wolf because they kind of were a wolf in 2017 when they competed against like Tron, who was very new. And now Tron is leaps and bounds bigger than ADA because of the stablecoin users. In many countries people use Tron for payments. Even in the west sometimes people tell me, "Hey, pay me in stablecoin. Here's my Tron address." I'm like, "Why are you sending me a Tron address? Do you have Solana?" And actually sometimes they don't have Solana. They're like, "No, what's Solana? What is ETH? I just have this Tron." They got onboarded into Tron. I'm very curious how that works. I don't understand it myself. Sometimes people who are not in crypto at all say, "Yeah, pay me in USDT. Here's my Tron address." I'm like, "What? How do you know about Tron? Out of everything, you know Tron?" I ask them, "Do you have Solana?" They're like, "What is Solana? Do you have ETH? What is ETH? I have Tron."

So in 2017 when ADA was new, Tron was new, everything was kind of new — yes, they were a wolf. Now they are a Chihuahua. And they have Charles, who is still the reason why maybe it comes back potentially.