Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's first weekly bull trend confirmation since Q4, with broader crypto market implications
Ivan on Tech presents a solo live stream covering Bitcoin's bull trend confirmation and related crypto market developments.
Summary
Ivan on Tech opens with significant excitement over Bitcoin confirming its first weekly bull trend since Q4, describing it as a generational signal. He argues that this development dramatically improves the risk-reward ratio not just for Bitcoin but across the entire altcoin market, drawing parallels to the 2023 bull trend confirmation. He covers several supporting catalysts including ETF inflows, regulatory developments, corporate Bitcoin adoption, and cycle mechanics. He also discusses the Robinhood chain's mechanics around tokenized stocks paired with memecoins, explaining how memecoin demand can create buy pressure on real stocks and potentially trigger short squeezes against hedge funds. Additional topics include altcoin chart analysis across Zcash, Solana, Sui, Hype, Lido, Fartcoin, Vchain, Theta, Celestia, Uniswap, and others, along with a pointed critique of using "euphoria" as a trading signal. Ivan also covers Jensen Huang's claim that AGI has arrived via GPT-6 Astra and its potential implications for Nvidia when markets reopen after Labor Day.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Confirms First Weekly Bull Trend Since Q4
Ivan on Tech: Oh yes, oh yes, yes, yes. Guys, welcome to another episode. And as you can see right now, we do have major, major, major news. You could say we even have generational news. Bitcoin is bullish for the first time since Q4. Bitcoin has confirmed a new weekly bull trend for the first time since Q4. And this is of course monumental. We're basically repeating what happened back in 2023. We're repeating history. And as you can see, as soon as we flip bullish, Bitcoin started to rise very, very consistently.
This doesn't mean that we just go straight up. For example, you see here — we flip bullish, then we actually went below the bull flip and we even went back to 19K. The bull flip was here at 22K, we went back to 19K. So definitely we could go down. Bull doesn't mean only up, all the time, 100% of the time. But overall it normally means consistently up. And as you can see with Bull Mania, with the money line, risk management is quite easy. Because should we just collapse, you see here we go bare flip again at 60K. So the downside is very limited while the upside is unlimited. Literally, Bitcoin could go to $300K, it can go to $200K — we don't know. But the upside is very, very big. Massive, massive upside. But the downside here is very limited.
So for us, with risk management, this is the biggest, most important signal since Q4 for Bitcoin and by extension the whole crypto market. Because Bitcoin, as you know, leads the whole crypto market. So when Bitcoin is in a bull trend, it means that now the risk-reward for all of the altcoins is way better. And in Bull Mania, later today we will be releasing the model portfolios. Either later today or later this week — let's see. Today we have the TA report. We have a lot to do in Bull Mania. But basically this week there will be a release coming with the model portfolios for the different altcoins. It's going to be fantastic.
Bull Mania and Market Positioning
If you look in your inbox, your email inbox, you should have an invite to Bull Mania if you subscribed to our newsletter in the last week or so. Check it as soon as possible because now it is bull flip. We are increasing the prices. But if you can still find an email from before from us, we will grandfather you in. But all in all, for everyone new, for now, Bull Mania is closed. We're digesting this bull flip. It's going to be insane. And everyone who is joining — big welcome.
Now let's play this classic. Let's play this absolute classic. The Golden Bull. The run. The return of the golden bull.
"Their spirits were sunken and low. Their bags weighed more than a ton. There was neither sign nor show when the bull began his run. The shills were shilling wall to wall. The gig was up, they had their fun, and every short got a margin call when the bull began his run. The candles green came fast and tall. Each wick was bald, quick to stun. His eyes burned red and his horns did gore when the bull began his run. No fortune smiles upon the weak. His bags of gold gleam in the sun. The outer stream of his palette's sheet, and every bear is left with none since the bull began his run."
I almost get tears when I watch this. It's insane. It's absolutely insane what's happening right now for Bitcoin. And we need to see it for what it is. It is a big signal, an extremely big signal for the market. It is basically a signal that risk-reward now is even more in favor of the bulls. And now the risk-reward is extending even outside of just Bitcoin.
You know that with Bitcoin we've been more or less bullish since July, since we went to the 200-week moving average. We said it's good to accumulate here and to go super, super, super bullish once we go bull flip. And now that we went bull flip, this risk-reward also extends to other assets. Whether it's Solana, whether it's ETH, all kinds of different altcoins that are in bull trend — you're just more likely to make money now. You're just more likely to make money now that we are bullish on Bitcoin. Simple risk-reward, simple math. Really, it's all about math. We're mathematicians here. Markets are all about math. And if you look at the math and you look at the expected value, here is where the bulls win bigly.
Bears Getting Nervous — The Probability Case
Bitcoin bears are getting nervous. I just wrote it before we went live. They thought it's another fake pump. And listen, it could be a fake pump. Anything can be a fake pump. But the probabilities are very small for the bears now. They're getting smaller day by day by day. Because we've been now a year since the peak. We've been to the 200-week moving average. Based on probabilities, based on simple math, being bearish here just means you're bad at math. That's what I said. Everyone who's been bearish lately has big problems with simple mathematics.
We had a cut in the connection there — it's the bears. I just said bears are bad at math and maybe they cut my cord. But everything is back. Okay, so looking at the statistics, looking at math, looking at where we are in the cycle, the upside, the expected value for Bitcoin is very, very big, while the downside is not that large. So very important — we're just positioning based on probabilities. And now it's time to be even more bullish.
Zcash and the Privacy Narrative
Looking at the overall market, we do have some remarkable moves. For example, Zcash continues upwards. We're now at $1,200. And just as a reminder, as soon as Zcash went bull trend again, it is instant, instant Valhalla. Again, respect the bull trend. Always, always, guys, respect the bull trend. You see that Zcash, as soon as it went bull trend — bam, explosion. Another weekly — bam, explosion. Very important. When things are in bull trend, you just have to pay respect. Don't over-analyze too much. Zcash all the way to $1,200. Fantastic.
When you look at Zcash, the narrative obviously is privacy, and that's a big narrative. The number one comparison currently is to Bitcoin. The number one bullishness for Zcash is how small it is versus Bitcoin — how much more it can pump. It's still a 10x away from being just 10% of Bitcoin's market cap. So fundamentals are here. Pumpamentals also here because the narrative with HTTP being Bitcoin and HTTPS being Zcash is massive. So you have the pumpamentals with the chart and then fundamentals with the narrative and comparison to Bitcoin. Very good.
Robinhood Chain: Tokenized Stocks, Memecoins, and Short Squeezes
Also, of course, you have this whole situation with Robinhood chain continuing to gain a lot of adoption, especially when it comes to tokenized stocks. Currently, you do see PAWNS taking a big fat dump of approximately 20%. So keep an eye here. With this, we would like to see a bit of accumulation, a bit of sideways. But should the bull market continue — which is extremely likely — this thing will keep mooning as well. So now it's basically the first discount in a very, very long time for PAWNS.
Many people have been asking about the mechanics here, because basically with Robinhood chain you have the memes potentially short squeezing real stocks on the stock market and liquidating hedge funds that are shorting these penny stocks. You remember how Robinhood became big back in the GameStop era, where a bunch of people on Reddit came together and started to pump the GameStop stock. Robinhood was one of the venues where all of the retail came together and started to pump GameStop, which was a heavily shorted stock by hedge funds and institutions because the business was bad. It was a penny stock, heavily shorted. Then retail came together and started to just collectively pump it. They actually made one of the hedge funds lose billions and billions of dollars — I think it was Melvin Capital. This was already like five, six years ago.
So now what's interesting is that you have the same thing repeating, but this time not on the Robinhood app but on Robinhood chain via memecoins. Why? Because currently on Robinhood chain, many of the memes are pooled with the tokenized stocks. So for example, you have a memecoin — AMC is called a memecoin, but it's also the AMC movie theater stock. And to buy the AMC memecoin on Robinhood chain, you need to have the tokenized AMC stock, because that's how the pools are set up. In order to buy asset A from the pool, you have to come with asset B.
In most cases, most assets on Solana or on ETH are paired with USDC, stablecoins, or with ETH or SOL. So no one really thinks about the fact that to buy the memecoin you need the other asset in the pool. But in this case, because it is a memecoin pooled with the tokenized stock, to buy the memecoin on-chain you technically need to have the tokenized stock. Now your wallet or app may hide this from you. You may come with stablecoins and buy the memecoin, but under the hood your wallet needs to first route your trade via the tokenized stock — basically buy the tokenized stock and then buy the memecoin.
So the conclusion here is that there is buy pressure on the tokenized stock whenever people want the meme. The demand for the meme pumps up the tokenized stock. When the tokenized stock gets demand, it can depeg from the real stock on the stock market. The tokenized stock may trade at a premium compared to the real stock on the stock market. And the institutions that can mint the tokenized stock — they have to get the real stock in custody when they mint the tokenized stock. So if there is an arbitrage opportunity, Robinhood and their partners can mint new tokenized stock. But to do that, they have to buy the real stock from the stock market and back the tokenized stock with it.
If this is complex, you can rewatch what I just told you. But the mechanics here is basically: when there is demand for the meme, there is demand for the real stock. When there's demand for the meme, there's demand for the real stock, which actually can lead to a short squeeze, which actually can lead to hedge funds getting liquidated yet again in the real stock market. So here you have a renewed retail-versus-institutions narrative, and it's now taking place on-chain via memecoins.
So to summarize: stock token demand rises when there is demand for the meme, because you need the stock to buy the meme. The price of the token prints a premium — so the token trades more expensive than the real stock. To be able to mint more stock tokens, you need to buy the real stock. So Robinhood and their authorized participants — basically their business partners — can act on the arbitrage. When the tokenized stock trades at a premium, they can create new tokenized stock and act on the arbitrage. But to do that, they have to buy the real stock.
Anyway, this is one of the narratives this bull cycle. I love it, guys. The fact that we have this retail rebirth and now it's taking place on Robinhood chain and it's part of crypto — fantastic. And it's interesting how much volume this industry generates. The volume for these memes and stocks bonded with memes is way bigger than the stock itself in many cases. So keep an eye on this. This is a strong, strong narrative overall — how crypto is merging with finance. We're becoming one. Crypto and stocks are merging in a big, big way.
AMC CEO vs. Robinhood: The Legal Battle
And the stock CEOs, for now at least, they don't seem to like it. The AMC CEO came out and he started a conflict with Vlad on Twitter, saying that this is kind of scammy behavior — that you guys tokenized our stock. But at the end of the day, the guy who tokenized the stock for Robinhood is an ex-SEC commissioner. So I think AMC is going to have a bit of a tough time going against Vlad here, because literally the guy who is responsible for tokenizing all of the stocks is a former SEC commissioner.
What happened here is that the CEO of AMC — Adam, CEO of AMC Theaters — he did not like that Robinhood tokenized his company, which is dumb because now everyone speaks about AMC. It's kind of big attention for the company. But okay, he didn't like it, so he did send a cease and desist. And who answered? Dan Gallagher. He is the former SEC commissioner and also Robinhood's chief legal officer. He came out and said, "We know a little something about US securities laws." Okay — maybe we know something. And will not desist. Send your lawyers and we will educate them.
Here you have gravitas from Vlad, gravitas from his head of legal. And Vlad also said it's an honor to be in the trenches with you. He's fully embracing this narrative. And if we can liquidate some hedge funds and this can be attributed to on-chain activity, it's a big, big onboarding, guys. This is overall a big fat onboarding for retail. People have been asking where will retail come from. Here's one of the examples — retail loves stocks, and for them it's so easy to jump into on-chain.
Key Catalysts Supporting the Bull Case
Now, looking at Bitcoin, we just went bullish. Very nice. And you have a few catalysts here that we have to discuss.
Number one is the spot ETF tsunami being still early. We did have inflows into the ETF in August. Inflows were good in August, but it's only the beginning. It's only the first month after outflow-only months — for many, many months we had outflow only. August was the first month where we had inflow, and big fat inflow. August was also the first month where Strategy stopped dumping. So basically it's the first month for everything, meaning that we're still in the early, early stages of this cycle. And there are still many bears, guys. Many bears still say we're going to go lower. Many bears still say it's a fakeout, this and that. And while they may be right — because the market is probabilistic — it is possible that it's a fakeout. We have, as you can see, the bear trend at 60K. So it's not like we're going to miss the path to zero if it happens.
At the same time, I have to say it's also bullish as hell that there are many bears. Not too many people are mega bullish now. For us to be bullish this early is very good, guys. Very, very good. We've been partially bullish since July. We've been overall bullish since July, but now we have such a big fat signal. And I actually love to see the bears. The bears are very good. The bears are here to basically ensure that we have the short squeeze. They're there to ensure that we have more people piling in as we go more bullish. Because if everyone had already bought, we will not pump. And the people have not bought. Absolutely not.
Number two: regulatory clarity. All of the stuff with the Clarity Act may happen later this year, but it's one of the catalysts yet to be unlocked. Meanwhile, while the Clarity Act is not unlocked, you have the US Treasury removing barriers. Strategy's CEO told CNBC that once clarity passes, major banks will adopt Bitcoin hard. Fed-related voices including Kevin Warsh are calling Bitcoin part of the fabric of US financial services. Very, very good.
Number three: political and monetary tailwinds. Talk of the US considering a Bitcoin purchase. This still hasn't happened. This is still yet to be unlocked — the catalyst with Trump creating a Bitcoin reserve. Although personally I kind of lost hope in it. In case it happens, it's going to be fantastic. It's still one of the bullish catalysts that may happen.
Number four: cycle mechanics. Many people who are waiting for the exact October peak — because we peaked in October — many people waiting for exact October to be here. Well, in 20 days they're also going to be buying. October, boop boop boop. Fantastic. You understand? So that's another catalyst. Many of the four-year cyclers are going to be buying in October. Fantastic. Let's go.
We are not pure four-year cyclers. We are trend followers. The trend is bull now. And we also know that around the 200-week moving average is chef's kiss — if you can buy a bit around the 200-week moving average. So people say, "Ivan, you follow the four-year cycle." I follow the trend, man. I follow the trend. And the trend has been quite similar to the four-year cycle but not exactly. And the four-year cyclers are going to be buying their bags in October. That's good. So we are front-running the cyclists. We've already been DCAing since July, slowly, around the 200 Moving Averages in the buy zone. And now — bam — we go heavy. And the cyclists, welcome, welcome.
Number five: corporate conviction. Strategy, Bitwise, all of the corporations, PayPal — what's going to happen? Let's see. Strategy's market cap is also going to be bull trend, but next week. So with this I would rather just trade altcoins or trade Bitcoin with leverage than to be in Strategy — achieve the same result but less risk. It's way better to just use Bitcoin leverage than to have Strategy, because Strategy is Bitcoin leverage plus all kinds of other weird risk that also changes all the time because Sailor does new things all the time. He's creative, using AI to create new financial products. I would just use Bitcoin leverage myself. I don't need Sailor to leverage. I can leverage Bitcoin myself.
Bitwise's $1.3 Million Bitcoin Prediction
Prediction market heat — Kalshi at 85–90K this month has been climbing very, very high.
Fred Krueger — I love Fred Krueger. Now that we are both bullish since July, we're on the same page. A problem with Fred Krueger is he was bullish in the bear too. We were not. But now we're the same. We're bullish. Bitcoin bear markets last about 12 months. Exactly — this one lasted 11 months. After bear markets come bull markets. Simple stuff. Simple stuff. But bears don't get it. We are 4% from the lows. Bull markets tend to run around two, three years. Last one: 16K to 106K — 8x. The one before: 21x. Institutions now own $100 billion. This is 0.1% of global mining supply. The tsunami of cash is coming, and it is coming very, very fast.
Bitwise was blowing my mind here, saying Bitcoin will be trading at $1.3 million — or they're saying there's no reason it will not be trading at $1.3 million. Basically saying it's going to be trading at $1.3 million.
Bitwise analyst: Our long-term prediction is we get to $1.3 million by 2035. I think we have a good chance to get back up to $100K this year. I think the conditions are extremely bullish. Remember, we're just getting traditional Wall Street back in their seats after their August break. I think as they come into their seats and they look at this macro setting, they look at crypto forming a nice bottom, they're going to want to start allocating. So I'm bullish on the short term. I'm very bullish on the long term. I think $1.3 million by 2035 is going to be relatively easy — or higher than that.
Ivan on Tech: What he said here is very important. He said that everyone sees it's a nice bottom. And I'm not saying it to be funny, but if you know anything about charts, Bitcoin has a nice bottom. It bounced off of the 200-week moving average. It's classic. I mean, anyone who knows anything about charts — especially if we close above 82K — it's crazy. But everyone knows that this long consolidation, basically since February, with the ultimate bottom here at the end of June, it's going to be crazy. It's one of the biggest catalysts — the fact that everyone comes back from vacation, sees what is cheap, and then Bitcoin looks like a nice bottom.
Relatively easy. Let's go. $1.3 million in the next decade. Let's go.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Bitcoin
Fed chair Kevin Warsh telling Congress that Bitcoin is part of the fabric of financial services. Let's listen to this.
Senator: Quick yes or no — do you believe that digital assets should be incorporated into our financial industry so Americans have new investment opportunities and consumer protections?
Kevin Warsh: Senator, digital assets are already part of the fabric of our financial services industry in the United States.
Senator: Yes. Thanks, Mr. Warsh.
Ivan on Tech: Yeah. Basically, yeah.
The "Euphoria" Debate — Why It's Not a Trading Signal
Antonio asks a question. He's saying: "Bull market did not top on euphoria. Why are bears so surprised if the bear market does not end in massive panic?"
Guys, I don't work in terms of euphoria. Big shout out to Antonio, by the way. But Antonio, I need you to stop trying to analyze whether it's euphoria or not, because to really think that you know what euphoria is and how you can calculate it is very bad. Very, very bad.
So whenever someone says, "Oh, Ivan, we did not end on euphoria" — how do we know? Because Dog With Hat went to five billion. You had the whole meme season. We had many crazy things in the last bull market. So don't tell me anything about euphoria. Don't tell me anything about any kind of unquantifiable gut-feeling kind of things. I don't work in euphoria. I work with the chart.
You see that in this question, when someone says, "Oh, we did not top on euphoria" — well, it means that we're going to reach the 200-week moving average faster and we're going to go into the next bull trend faster, which is exactly what happened. So all in all, just follow the downtrend. Don't worry about euphoria.
When you tell me that euphoria is part of your equation, I know that you don't have a stop-loss, you don't have a take-profit, you don't have discipline, you don't have anything. Because okay, you enter a trade based on euphoria. How are you going to enter based on euphoria? You analyze euphoria — what's your trade? What's your entry? How do you calculate your entry based on euphoria? How do you do your take-profit or stop-loss based on euphoria? No, you can't. So it's only a pleb thing to even discuss it.
I tell it with love. Big shout out to Antonio. I love Antonio. When people say euphoria, it's infotainment, because there is no way you can enter a trade based on euphoria or lack of euphoria, or enter a short based on euphoria. Many people, for example, have been waiting for euphoria to short. But how do you enter a short based on euphoria? I don't know, man.
And the reason I get worked up when I hear this euphoria talk is because I know the losses people had in Q4, because they said there's no euphoria, there's no way it's a top because we didn't have euphoria. When I became bearish in October, the number one thing people said was, "There's no euphoria, so it cannot be a top." Big problem for anyone who's been trying to analyze euphoria. Big problem.
We look at the numbers. We're humble. People tell me sometimes I'm not humble, but I'm the most humble because I don't think I can analyze euphoria. How do you analyze euphoria? You really think you're so good that you can analyze it? I don't know how you analyze it. I can tell you one thing — Dog With Hat went to five billion. Fartcoin. We were there with Fartcoin. We made money with Fartcoin. It was not euphoria — but okay, maybe it wasn't like 2017. But see, it's not useful. It's not useful. Don't worry about euphoria. Worry only about the price. That's it.
Big shout out to Antonio. Thank you very much for the donation and for the fantastic question. So we could attack it head on. Don't worry about euphoria.
Michael Saylor, Strategy, and Institutional Catalysts
Regarding Saylor's discount framing — billionaire Michael Saylor says the idea that you can buy Bitcoin at 80K is a joke. Yeah, okay. Maybe. But Saylor, for trading, I don't know. He's been buying high and he's been selling below 80K also. So yeah.
By the way, the Treasury is going to deploy up to $1 trillion into treasuries. So keep an eye.
Solana and the Robinhood Chain Competition
People have been asking about Solana. Solana is officially in bull trend already since August 24th — since two weeks ago — up 10% since then. Looking at what has been happening lately, obviously we are waiting for some kind of comeback. Will they have a tokenized stock? What's going to happen? Because now all of the attention is on Robinhood chain.
Let me quickly check the volume. Are they still leading or what's happening with Solana? The number one thing is to keep the lead in the volume in the trading. So Solana over the last 24 hours is $7.6 billion. Robinhood is $2.3 billion. So Solana is holding the lead, and it is bull trend, and we mainly care about trend — and it's bull. So we're bullish Solana.
There is a lot of negativity towards Solana now — that it's not really the center of attention for memes, this and that. So it could be a bit of a hated rally. But listen, we're bullish mainly because it's bull trend and because of the leading volume and everything.
But if Solana starts to, number one, stall out in price, and number two, if they start to become more and more like the ETH Maxis became in 2022 and 2023 — where they said Solana is a scam, whatever they said, they were coping — if Solana becomes like Bankless, you remember the Bankless guys said Solana was bad, it's a scam, and then at the peak of the market they became bull Solana and then it went down — cannot be that. And to be fair, I don't really see too much of that. I see Solana working very hard. But all in all, they need to get the mojo back in terms of being the number one attention for new retail. I would say they are probably losing the onboarding of new retail — they're losing onboarding because now new users get onboarded into Robinhood instead.
Altcoin Chart Analysis: Sui, Hype, Lido, Fartcoin
People have been asking about Sui. I'm fascinated. How can Sui still not go up? Solana bull trend, ETH bull trend — even if ETH is still struggling to get above the low from March. Sui is still not going up. It's crazy, man. We're going to be mega bull if it goes bull trend obviously. But I'm just fascinated. How can it still not go up?
Hype — all-time high, bull trend, up 125% since bull trend. Very, very nice. Lido — up 241% since bull trend back in May. Continues the ascent. Very, very nice.
Should we still have stuff like Fartcoin? I don't even know if it's relevant, but let's still keep it in the watch list. It's bear trend, but to be fair it looks better than Sui. It's crazy, guys, that Fartcoin looks better than Sui. Fartcoin is above this low — you can see this low — and in Sui you see it's below the low from April. So if you bought Fartcoin in the panic back in April, you would have more money than if you bought Sui. Very, very — I mean, I'm fascinated. So that's why I don't want to remove Fartcoin, because it's better than Sui for now. But still bad, so we don't touch it.
PulseChain Commentary
Even PulseChain — guys, can you add your coin to TradingView? Why do I have to use this ghetto thing? Like, the whole chain is so ghetto. PulseChain, okay, I always have to find some ghetto thing. Why are you so ghetto in all different ways? In all ways possible. You don't have a block explorer. PulseChain guys don't even have a working block explorer. They have barely working anything. But they think they're at the top of the food chain. Coin is not findable. Block explorer not working. Nothing works. They got scammed with another sacrifice at the bottom of the bear. Your messiah took your last money. Some gave him money for the other coin. Okay.
Liquid Security Incident
There is some kind of security incident in Liquid. I never liked Liquid, guys. Liquid was pushed as some kind of Bitcoin tech, but really it's just Blockstream's corporate thing. But anyway, something happened here — 4,000 Bitcoin got stolen, or it is a white hat situation or something. You can read more. Price doesn't really react, so I don't know if we should care too much. But you should know.
Nvidia, AGI, and the Stock Market
Some news about Nvidia. Let's see what's going to happen now when the stocks open, because Jensen Huang said that AGI has arrived because of GPT-6 Astra. Let me know, guys, if you have tried it. I'm still yet to try GPT-6 Astra. With AI, you have to try things every week — there's always something new.
Let's see pre-market. S&P 500 futures — bullish, good open, green. But actually, it's Labor Day. There's no stock market today. Oh, guys, Labor Day is the 1st of May. That's Labor Day, not 7th of September. But no, America, you got to be special. Everyone has one football — oh no, you have American football. It's another one.
Guys, Labor Day is not today. Not today. You have your own version. All the communists, all the socialists in the world know Labor Day is the 1st of May. That's the big parade. Look at the Soviet Union when Labor Day was the 1st of May. Who knows the most about Labor Day? The Soviet Union. The socialists in Europe. Not the 7th of September. I remember the 1st of May — it was like a red holiday. We had a day off and people celebrated.
But why are you guys even celebrating Labor Day in the US? The US is capitalistic. Capitalism — have you guys heard about that? Because you forgot. If I were Trump, I would actually remove it, because Labor Day is the socialistic mind virus from the commies. And I'm telling you, I was born in Belarus. I know all about it. You don't need it. You need capitalism. You need Capitalism Day. Stock Market Day. That would be a great day, man. S&P 500 holiday. I want a shareholder holiday. That's what I want. I don't want Labor Day. If you are laboring, you should get stock. Get S&P 500. Let's go. Buy stock. We should have Stock Owner Shareholder Day. Portfolio Day. Many Making Money Day. Trading Day. This kind of stuff.
Anyway, big shout out to you if you are Labor Daying. I think we should have Stock Exchange Day. But what you celebrate, you know — yeah, there is this class conflict. It doesn't exist anymore. There's no class conflict. Be Stock Market Day. Okay, that's it.
Speaking about class conflict — maybe there is a bit of class conflict, guys. Maybe there is. President Trump says he made hundreds of billions of dollars from stocks for the US, not himself. Maybe there is a bit of class conflict. You tell me.
Anyway, back to Nvidia. If AGI is really here — because you remember Nvidia CEO just said AGI is here because of GPT-6 — when the stock market opens tomorrow, something very interesting will happen. Yeah, let's see what's going to happen. But yeah, it's tomorrow, guys. It's Tuesday, so we have to wait a bit because of Labor Day.
Labor Day is the day a bunch of workers struck for safer working conditions and were shot. Ah, got it. Got it. Yeah. Listen, historical, probably highly sensitive topic, but that's what we do on this channel. My sincere condolences and congratulations on Labor Day. There you go. Everyone who's celebrating Labor Day — congratulations. And let's get back to work tomorrow. Stock market back tomorrow. Fantastic.
Zcash Ecosystem: ZCAT Memecoin
Zcash holders are typically a completely different group from memecoiners. ZCAT is bridging a very large gap. That's interesting, man. It's on Solana. ZCAT — Anonymous Cat — paired with Zcash. A 3% transfer tax on transactions goes to holders in Zcash. There you go.
Q&A: ServiceNow, Solana Price Targets, Vchain, Theta
Let's go to Q&A — questions, answers, debates, discussions. Let's go.
Could you look at the ServiceNow chart? Let's see. ServiceNow — very good chart. Bull trend. A new bull trend, a bit of resistance here at the 200 Moving Averages. We can get 22% just going back to this previous support which is now resistance, and all in all coming to all-time highs is 63%. So chart looking good. It just has to get above the 200 Moving Averages. Otherwise, looking very, very good.
Ivan, I want 30 Solana bull trend happened. Bull trend happened right here. No more 30 Solana. The dream of 30 Solana died right here when the bull trend happened at $95 for SOL. Maybe in the next bear we can get it so cheap. Probably not.
How do you feel about Vchain? Why are you asking about it now? Is it still alive? It's one of these dino coins from 2017. Well, okay. I mean, just based on the chart, it looks quite good. There's a new bull trend. It got above this resistance. It's bull market. The next resistance is the previous support here at basically 181. Not bad, man. Not bad. The problem you may have is if it's just a few people pumping it. But yeah, it's not too bad. Actually, quite okay.
This is where Bull Mania AI is so nice, because here's a good example of a chart where it looks good, but I want to have more context. In this case, I don't want to be buying if there's some Chinese market maker just pushing it. What's the latest on Vchain? How is the community? Is the buy pressure organic?
I know Cardano is kind of endorsing anything that competes against ADA. You're overanalyzing, man. Vitalik does not care about ADA. I can tell you 100%. The last thing Vitalik cares about is to support coins just because they're anti-ADA. You guys have main character syndrome, because literally no one cares about ADA. There are no users there. There are no users. Charles is the only pumpamental left. No one uses the chain. Charles is the one that is still, you know, the pumpamental. And he launched a new coin, Midnight, which is now stealing buy pressure from ADA. So thinking that Vitalik would actively think about ADA so much that he chooses to support coins that compete with ADA — you think highly of yourself. Sometimes you got to be humble. Vitalik is not thinking about Charles or ADA or whatever. Okay.
Now, Vchain — what's happening day to day? 1,200 new users. I don't know anyone who uses Vchain. I thought it was supply chain. I thought some kind of supply chain. But it's kind of impressive that they're still here. Supply chain, real-world problem, supply — you see how few likes, like no one cares about Vchain. But the price is there. Maybe it's an opportunity. Sports narrative. XRP. But guys, listen — the chart is not bad for Vchain. Remember, Vchain — my brain forgot it from 2017. This is a 2017 kind of millionaire-maker.
So Vchain — yeah. Interstellar voted in mainnet hard fork. Okay. But see, no one cares. It's like 11 likes. No one cares about it. No large story. I don't know what they're doing. They have new wallets and a new update and that's it. So I'm not too excited about the narrative, but I'm very excited about the chart. The chart is not bad, guys. It's not bad. Personally, I will not be taking the trade, but if you take it, I think it's a good trade. There is no resistance until this high. The only danger again is this Chinese market maker situation — they just pump it to make it look nice, then dump it. At the same time, Bitcoin is bull trend now. Vchain did pump last cycle here in 2024. So yeah, pumped in 2021, got in here, fully collapsed. All in all, not too bad. Not too bad. Actually quite good chart-wise for Vchain. Quite good. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.
Any information on Theta? Okay, another one of this dino stuff. Let's see what's happening with Theta. Still not bull trend. But if it goes bull trend, it's kind of similar to Vchain. These dino things that dumped so much in the bear — now that they go bull trend, let's say this thing goes bull trend. It has very nice upside — basically the same upside as Vchain. So Theta here looks quite good. If it can go bull trend, then fantastic. You see here from the bull flip to the next resistance: 174%. And to all-time high, obviously a bit higher. But see, this is the good thing with being bullish on shitcoins now because Bitcoin just went bull. So shitcoins now will also start to go bull, and most of them look like this — they have a big fall, and on the way back, this fall is going to be erased quite fast if they can go bull trend. That's the only thing they need — to go bull trend first.
Tao, Algo, and Celestia Analysis
Tao — let's see. Did it continue the bull? It is bullish but it's kind of a slow bull. I needed it to go above the yellow line. Same analysis as before. Algo — nothing to discuss. Bear trend. Celestia — let's go. Let's move faster here.
Celestia is also bear trend. But guys, here I just want to highlight something. Celestia has dumped so much — so much, like insanely much. If it goes bull trend, let's look at the gains. Until basically the next resistance here — 170%. But that's just the next resistance. I mean, to go back to all-time high would be like 3,900% if it goes back. Which it doesn't have to do.
And I mean, this is the best thing with not being a bag holder. Some poor pleb held it all the way down and now needs it to recover. We don't even need it to recover. We just need to take a few trades here. You have a nice trade if it continues. You can take the profits along the way. And if it goes back, great. But we don't need it to go back to all-time high because we don't hold crap in bear trend. So that's it. And now in the new bull, we have endless opportunities because we pick and choose whatever looks good.
Which chart dumped 90, 99%? We enter. The pleb needs it to go back to fully recover. We don't even need that. We're going to take profit. We're going to dump on their ass. Here's the thing — we're going to dump on their ass to take profit. They're begging, "Please come back to all-time high, please." We enter the low, pump, take profit, dump on them. And they want it to maybe go back. Maybe it's going to happen. Maybe not. We're going to make so much money even before it returns to all-time high.
This is the problem when you hold down so much. In the next bull, new traders come in — for example, people that know mechanical rules in Bull Mania. Everyone has a brain and actually uses the brain in the markets and actually knows how the markets work. We enter cheap. We have such big profit margin. For you to go to all-time high, our profit is going to be too big. We need to take profit along the way, which is by definition dumping on your ass. Okay? So that is the curse of the pleb.
Now of course some coins are going to go to all-time high anyway. But there is resistance here to be chewed through — including the new traders that buy cheap and then take profit along the way, even before you recover half of your bag. Big problem.
So Celestia — if it goes bull trend, I think the Celestia chart is quite juicy because it dumped so ridiculously much. Obviously fundamentals — I don't know. Is Celestia needed for anything? I don't know. Maybe with the rebirth of EVM L2s, maybe it's needed. For Solana, no one needs Celestia. What is Celestia used for? DA — data availability. But ETH has native DA nowadays. Is it even needed? ETH has native DA, blobs — why do you need Celestia? Who is using it anyway?
Let's see what it says. But you know, fundamentals — I don't know. But it's bull market. No one cares about fundamentals in a bull market. A lot of the coins are going to fly, guys. I can tell you even if they don't have use cases.
Chat response on Celestia: Short answer — Celestia is DA level. Ethereum now has native DA. So ETH replaced Celestia itself. So Celestia is no longer the only DA. The real question is: who needs cheaper, bigger, more specialized DA than ETH? There's some niche use case for data availability.
Ivan on Tech: For all of you guys who don't know data availability, don't worry. It's like geek stuff. No one cares about it anymore. You know, in the early days of crypto, you could make money by being good at all of this super technical stuff. "Oh, what about data? What's your data availability?" And that meant that the industry was quite early, because we didn't really care about actual users, actual volume, actual trading taking place, actual transactions. We cared about geek stuff like data availability.
And I'm telling you that as a computer scientist myself — I'm a computer scientist. I worked as a developer before crypto full-time. I started programming when I was nine. I love programming. But when I see geek stuff, I need to call it out. Data availability — investing in "oh, what about data?" — it's one of these things that were hot before crypto became big enough so we can focus on the actual KPIs that are important for this industry. And that's users, transactions, the trades, etc. And now with Solana, with Robinhood, that's what you focus on. Revenue, buyback — how much buyback do you have? How much of the revenue goes back into the coin? See, this is the kind of stuff we discuss now. And I love that we have moved to that, because crypto is mature enough.
Celestia — it's one of these data availability things. I'm not super excited about the use case, but the chart is amazing. If it goes bull trend, amazing chart. So we're still bullish. If this goes bull trend, Celestia, let's go. Data availability. We're bullish. Data. Let's go.
Uniswap: Is It Too Late?
Is it too late for Uni? It's not too late for anything. When you say too late, you mean like a peak? You know, you're afraid the bull market peaked out? If you bought it at the bull flip, it was on August 3rd, you would have now 70% profit. But it's still just a few weeks into the journey. It's below all-time high. It's back to the price level of basically last October, when it already started to go down a lot last November. So it's not too late. But you need to know how to manage risk. You're not entering at a new bull trend. Ideally, we always want to enter at a new bull trend. Ideally, this is not a new trend. So you need to scale in here. We discuss in detail in Mechanical Rules in Bull Mania how to do this.
To your question — it's not too late. It's not too late. We just went bullish on Bitcoin, which is not too late either.