Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's move to $80K, assesses bull vs. bear signals, and answers viewer questions on altcoins and macro
Ivan on Tech hosts a live crypto market analysis session covering Bitcoin's price action, macro indicators, altcoin charts, and trading strategy.
Summary
Ivan on Tech presents a live market analysis as Bitcoin pushes to $80K, asking whether this represents a genuine recovery or a bull trap. He argues that while bulls have scored points — particularly by reclaiming the bull market support band — the weekly trend for Bitcoin remains bearish, and the counter-trend rally statistics suggest significant downside risk remains. He walks through his positioning framework (slow DCA above the support band, fast DCA only above the "money line," and dry powder reserved for a potential buy zone), and applies this framework to altcoins including Solana, Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, Polkadot, Zcash, Venice, and Quant.
Mike Novogratz appears via a Fox Business clip arguing Bitcoin has put in a floor around $60K, but Ivan cautions against following influencer calls, noting even high-profile figures like Novogratz have made costly errors (referencing the Terra Luna tattoo incident).
On the macro side, he highlights prospective Fed chair Kevin Warsh's comments pointing toward a productivity-driven deflationary environment requiring money printing, the UAE's exit from OPEC as a potential oil price suppressant, and Strategy (MicroStrategy) pausing Bitcoin purchases ahead of earnings with Wall Street expecting an $18.98 per share loss. He also presents a compounding simulation showing how a 70% crash reduces a $100K investment grown over 50 years from $4.7M to $1.3M, illustrating why avoiding large drawdowns is central to his profit-protect-compound framework.
Throughout, he emphasizes that mechanical rules, trend-following discipline, and the profit-protect-compound framework are more important than any single market prediction.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin's Move to $80K — Bull Recovery or Bull Trap?
Ivan on Tech: Bitcoin is doing something very interesting right now. We're currently at $79K. Bulls pumped us all the way to $80K — quite a big move. The question is: is this a real recovery? Is this the bull market returning? Or is this a bull trap, where the market gets everyone to believe the bear market is over, bulls get trapped, and their souls are crushed? Let's discuss that. We'll cover the news for the bulls, the news for the bears, and most importantly, I'll share how I'm playing this and how I'm positioning — because at the end of the day, there are bullish signals and bearish signals, and it's all about how you position yourself within all of this.
Welcome to everyone watching live. We're also going to discuss whether it's goodbye to our buy zone. Will we ever come back to our beloved buy zone, or should we just say bye-bye to it?
Weekly Structure and the Bull Market Support Band
Ivan on Tech: First and foremost, let's talk about what happened last week. We did see the week close still below the previous year's low on a closing basis, but now we're pumping above it. We're pumping higher. Most importantly, you can see that we're closing above the bull market support band — or the bear market resistance band, depending on your perspective. There is definitely strength here for the bulls.
At the same time, is it possible to close a few weeks above the bull market support band during a bear market? Yes, absolutely. We had a period where we traded basically three weeks above it before collapsing down. And in the bull market, we've also traded below it without entering a bear market, then continued to the upside. So the bull market support band is an indication, but it's not something you want to put your whole portfolio on the line for. It is, however, a bullish indication.
Like we've been saying: if we are above the bull market support band, slow DCA is the strategy. At the same time, we should always keep in mind that we're bearish on the weekly for Bitcoin. This is the most important indicator when it comes to the money line. The bear trend is still in play, meaning we are risk-off — mainly risk-off.
This is just a risk management strategy. We are bullish on the bull market support band — we're above it — so slowly DCAing here makes sense. But at the same time, even if we go up and get rejected, this would still just be a lower high before continuation to the downside. So patience is very much needed here.
Bulls did score points for sure, and that's why slow DCA here makes sense. But overall the trend is bearish, and we are risk-off. We have been risk-off since October. As you remember, we follow the strategy — the strategy does not change because emotions change. As someone in the chat put it: the truth is most people aren't ready for the volatility in crypto. You're not just trading coins — you're trading emotions, patience, and discipline. This is one of those examples where volatility is high and emotions are very, very high. But if you zoom out, you see the clear picture.
DCA Framework — When to Go Slow, When to Go Fast
Ivan on Tech: Bulls did score points for sure, and that's why, as long as we're above the bull market support band, slow DCA makes sense. Should we go below it, I would stop the slow DCA — because then the likelihood of us going to the buy zone becomes very, very high.
When can you say for sure that the bulls are here? Well, number one: in markets, nothing is for sure. But should we go bullish on the money line, and should we then also get into a higher-high structure — for example, right now everything here would still be a lower high — should we get into a higher-high structure, that's a different situation.
Some people ask: why not just buy at $60K? Because no one buys at $60K. The people who buy at $60K are the ones who bought here, bought here, and did the round trip. No one knows the future. It's all about positioning. Through positioning, we can ensure that we ride bull market after bull market, avoid the bear market where everyone's portfolio goes down 90%, compound, and protect capital. Very important.
The chance of coming to the buy zone is still very, very high. It could just be that the market wants everyone to think the bear is over before everyone gets put back in the basement. But the thing is, we don't have to be correct here. We don't have to put the whole portfolio on one event happening. Instead, you see how positioning works — and it's actually a big relief.
People who join Bulmania tell us: "Hey Ivan, it's a big relief. I don't have to be right." Because at the end of the day, whatever happens, there is a scenario for that. There is a scenario where we capture most of the move without the 80–90% drawdown. You don't have to second-guess whether your position is correct. No matter what happens, you will ride most of the bull and avoid the bear.
Reading the Timeline — Bull and Bear Signals Everywhere
Ivan on Tech: If you're just joining now, rewatch — we did the full walkthrough of what to do, the likelihood of higher, the likelihood of lower. If we just look at the timeline, this is why positioning is so important. You're going to see both bull and bear signals everywhere.
You have people saying it broke all-time highs in three months, key psychological level, middle of a massive CME gap. By the way, if we fill a mini gap between $84K and $79K and then get rejected, that would also totally make sense while still above the support band. So you see bullish, bullish, a bit bearish, bullish — there's always going to be a combination.
Someone is saying we'll retest the all-time high — bull trap. I'm just showing you an example. I'm not trading based on any of this. Just showing you what the average player is seeing on the timeline. He sees bullish, then scrolls and sees bearish. Then he sees that Michael Saylor is not buying any Bitcoin this week and asks why. Peter Schiff says, "I guess that helps explain why Bitcoin didn't go up." Well, it did go up.
Then he scrolls and sees someone saying the purpose of a bear is to convince everyone that the bear market is over, only to have the real flush. So he gets a bit bearish. Then he scrolls and sees something bullish again.
This one is interesting, by the way — an analysis of what happens if Bitcoin drops 50%. Since 2017, Bitcoin has dropped 50% five times, and most times that drop was followed by a counter-trend rally of approximately 40%. So the buy zone is still very, very real. Why? Because we just pumped from the low to where we are now — 33%. And on average the counter-trend rally is 40%. So just highlighting the risk here. The risk is still very, very real for a downward continuation based on the bear trend and based on the statistics.
But at the same time, don't corner yourself. Should we pump to Valhalla? We're DCAing slowly here. With DCA fast above the money line — but the risk to the downside is very high. That's why DCA is slow here, slow, and only fast if we go above the true bull market trend. That way there's enough dry powder to deploy should we get to the buy zone.
Mike Novogratz on Fox Business — $60K Floor?
Ivan on Tech: Let me show you what Mike Novogratz is saying here on Fox Business News.
Mike Novogratz: "You know, those are two important things for Bitcoin. What I would say positively is there's a whole lot of retail money that continues to come into the space, buying either the ETFs or sometimes MicroStrategy — once people buy his stock, he buys Bitcoin. So we trade fine. We put a low in at $60K after that real first-quarter selloff. I don't think we're going back to $60K. I could see kind of $75 to $82K, $70 to $72 to $82K, until we get some more momentum. But that's not really been the big story in crypto this year. It has been this transition into infrastructure. Galaxy, our company, is transitioning — but the whole industry. When I say infrastructure, it is setting up the pipeline, the pipes for post-market structure bill, for the US to sell tokenized equities and tokenized fixed income and tokenized everything to the rest of the world. We've got these amazing brands in America and they're going to get sold to the five or six billion."
Ivan on Tech: I mean, I don't know what he's talking about then. Did he even say $60K? Anyway, Novogratz is a legend. I love Novogratz. But he also did tattoo Terra Luna on his arm. I don't know if he removed it — he must have had a very expensive tattoo removal service, because that turned out to be, well, you know what Terra Luna was.
So listen, everyone in the space — you need to cut your own path. Even when you have someone like Do Kwon — that's his name — even then, trust but verify. It's a very important saying.
The Emotional Challenge of Following a Strategy
Ivan on Tech: When we look at the market, if you're the average player, you scroll Twitter, you see bull, you see bear. And then you have your own bias because you may be a bag holder who's been down since October. If you haven't been watching this channel and you're new — big welcome — but if you're holding down since October, you have your own bias. What you need instead is a plan for any scenario. That's what we have.
Some people are frustrated by that. They're like, "No, Ivan, you should not have a plan for every scenario. You should be all in on one scenario and then get wrecked together with us if that doesn't happen." But listen — markets are probabilistic. The number one scenario is still that we're in a bear and we still go into the buy zone. But here it's good to DCA slowly. Why? In case it is a Valhalla candle — we need to be prepared for that as well. It's Bitcoin. It can absolutely happen. So slow DCA here, fast DCA above the money line, and then should we get there, it's Valhalla candle, new bull market, all the altcoins going crazy. I'm looking forward to that. I don't want us to be in the bear, but at the same time I don't want to lose money either.
Profit, Protect, Compound — The Bulmania Framework
Ivan on Tech: I'm thinking about new branding for Bulmania. It's still in the construction phase, but basically it's about profit, compound, and protect. Profit, compound, protect. Boom. If I can just drill that into everyone's brain, it's going to be fantastic.
People's lives are already changing with the way they're trading — based on trends, based on having a strategy, not just going on emotion. But many people are also missing the compounding piece, where it's all about ensuring you don't have a big drop. A big drop destroys your compound. Compounding is the eighth wonder of the world. Many people still don't get it.
And then protection — in crypto, no one speaks about that. So that's definitely something that's needed. Sometimes we see people coming in saying, "Hey, in crypto I had $500K, now I have like $30K — please help me." I'm like, what happened? How? $500K you can compound quite nicely. $30K is tougher — you need profit. So there is a spectrum here. You need high risk to grow. Once you enter a position where you have a few hundred thousand, maybe a few million, then you need to switch a bit to compound mode. And then always, in whatever mode you are — protect, protect, protect.
Lower Time Frame Analysis — Daily and 12-Hour Trends
Ivan on Tech: Let's go to the lower time frame. On the higher time frame I think you understand — let's see what's happening on the daily.
On the daily, you have a bull trend here since the middle of April. Still bullish on the daily. Whenever there's a bull trend on the daily, you know that you can long it — of course with mechanical rules. If you don't know what I mean by mechanical rules, go to Bulmania and learn them so you understand how to take positions in this market.
So on the daily, short-term trading makes absolute sense. You have a bullish signal since the 17th or 18th of April, and the trend is continuing. If we go to the 12-hour, very similar — it got the signal a bit quicker. On the 15-minute, also bullish. So on the shorter time frames it is bull trends. On the longer time frame, still a bear trend — meaning we're trading a counter-trend rally to the upside.
Kevin Worsh on AI, Deflation, and the Coming Money Print
Ivan on Tech: You have a new Fed chair coming in about a week or week and a half. Kevin Worsh is discussing here that AI and Bitcoin are going to change the US economy. Listen to this.
Kevin Worsh: "What we call AI in a couple of years we'll just call business. And AI is going to make almost everything cost less, and the US can be a big winner. It's a hugely exciting moment. If I were to step back for a minute — if I were the president, what I'd be worried about is a central bank that doesn't see any of that. A central bank that is stuck with models from 1978, governance from a prior period, and doesn't recognize we could be at the front end of a productivity boom. And if I were the president, I'd be worried that they might not see it and they might think economic growth is somehow going to be inflationary. I think we were probably in the early innings of a structural decline in prices. Ken sees it on the front lines of real businesses, and I think if you look over the period of the next year or two, it's a pretty special moment."
Ivan on Tech: The way he speaks signals the big print. He's saying deflation is going to be massive based on AI and the productivity boost. And if deflation is massive, what do you need? You need the big print. You need the Fed to take care of that. You need the big fat money print. So that's a bullish signal overall on the macro.
But as you know, we don't really trade based on macro, because it can still take a year, a year and a half to play out — and your bags are going to bleed 90% if you're wrongly positioned. All these arguments were correct in October also. They were the same arguments. In fact, in October some of it looked even better, because we didn't have the Iran war and the odds of a rate cut were higher back then. You could even say the macro picture in October was better than today, yet we still dumped 98% in altcoins. So all this is good to follow but not good to trade on.
It's nice to know that the big print is coming, so that when this goes bullish — when stocks go bullish, which they've done already a few weeks ago — we're super bullish on stocks based on their trend. Because if they're going to print a lot, it will propagate sooner or later into the markets.
Stock Market Indicators — NASDAQ, S&P, MicroStrategy, and Strategy
Ivan on Tech: If we look at the stock market, NASDAQ wants to keep climbing. S&P wants to keep climbing. Futures versus close price also keeps climbing. If we look at the IGV, this is bullish for Bitcoin — because Bitcoin and IGV in terms of the chart are the same.
If we look at MicroStrategy — or Strategy as it's now called — it's up a bit, testing the weekly long-term bull trend. Keep an eye on this, especially if you're in Bulmania. It did close below last week. Let's see if it can close above this week.
Looking at the last bear market, it did have a few bull flips. It had one fake-out back in 2022, and then basically fell from that fake-out high to a new low — about a 70% loss from the fake-out high to the low. Then you can say the bull market started. But this is the thing with trading based on mechanical rules: you enter but you have a stop-loss. So you never have a big loss. You define your risk — let's say 1% — and your loss will never be more than that. But should the trend continue, you let it ride. That's the best strategy there is — it's called trend following. When you're wrong, the loss is minimal. When you're correct, the gain is monumental because you just let it ride.
Strategy is now turning bullish. Trading it with mechanical rules makes sense. For the bulls, the best case scenario is a nice big fat long bull trend. There's always a risk of a fake-out — that's why we have mechanical rules, stop-losses, all of that in case it does something like 2022.
Let's see if Strategy can get to $100. It would mean that Saylor has money to buy Bitcoin, because he can create new shares and deploy the capital — that's the whole strategy. They're at $99.89. This one is worth keeping an eye on to know whether Saylor has money to buy or not.
Strategy Pauses Bitcoin Purchases Ahead of Q1 Earnings
Ivan on Tech: Currently Saylor is not buying. He didn't buy this week. Strategy pauses Bitcoin buys before Tuesday earnings. Michael Saylor says the company will resume purchases next week, but the pause lands as analysts focus on losses and the growing complexity.
This is the big problem. This is why I'm not touching Strategy with a 100-foot pole. It's super complex — what they're doing with all the different stock classes, debt, dividends, this and that. It's becoming super complex, and even Wall Street is noticing that. To untangle all of that — holy crap.
Strategy is taking a breather from buying Bitcoin. Saylor said Sunday the company would not add to its Bitcoin holdings this week, pausing its regular purchase program ahead of Tuesday's first-quarter earnings release. The pause is only the second this year for Strategy, which has turned itself into a major Bitcoin buyer. Wall Street expects a loss of $18.98 per share, with revenue of around $125 million from their software business. Let's see what happens. Keep an eye on this as they have earnings on Tuesday.
For now though, we are entering a new bull trend on the lower time frames. If we can close the week above the support band, that's another important thing to watch.
Q&A — Weekly Close, DCA Strategy, and the Buy Zone
Ivan on Tech: Let's go to Q&A — questions, answers, debates. Whatever you want to discuss.
On the question of whether a weekly close above $80K means buy: rewatch the stream — we just discussed all of this. If we are above the bull market support band, it means slow DCA. Should we get below it, it means cancel DCA. Should we get above the money line, it means fast DCA, because then with high certainty the bull market is back. Here the fake-out chance is very, very big. We just discussed this for the first seven minutes or so.
Slow DCA here makes sense. Why? Because we are above the bull market support band, which is a bullish signal. So we adapt our positioning. Should we get below it, we cancel the slow DCA because then we're preparing for the buy zone.
The Mechanical Rules — Why Education Matters More Than Indicators
Ivan on Tech: If you want to learn about my big losses in crypto, the genesis of Ivan on Tech, the mechanical rules and how they were created, and really the philosophy behind them — the philosophy that enabled us to de-risk in October, to go super heavy Bitcoin in January 2023, to play this bear market fantastically well — that's all in the book. A big burden is removed from your shoulders. You don't have to be fully correct all the time. No one is fully correct. No one knows the future.
To give you an example: following a strategy is very hard. Having a strategy is easy. Following it is super hard. That's where you really have to take your education seriously and reprogram your brain. That's what we do in Bulmania.
If you look at the chart, it looks easy, right? Bearish, bullish, bearish, bullish. If you can just follow this without overthinking, what would happen? You would make a lot of money in the bull and you would not lose it in the bear. Meaning that each cycle you have compounding. Each cycle you can reinvest the money. And compounding is the eighth wonder of the world. Should you destroy your portfolio 80–90% in the bear, you don't have compounding — you start from scratch.
Look at Warren Buffett. Ninety percent of his wealth was made after he was 70 or so, because compounding happens fastest at the end.
Now look here — if you zoom in, and imagine the emotion everyone has on Twitter and everywhere. It's emotional. Let's say you enter when it's bullish right here. If you zoom out, you remember how fantastic it looked. But here people are thinking, "Oh no, I missed the rally — it's already up 40%. It's too late." Then you enter. What happens? It drops 20%. Imagine the emotion if you don't know mechanical rules. Even if you have the best indicator in the world, your monkey brain will not be able to follow it in any nice way without education.
Then it pumps, pumps, pumps — and then from this height to this, it drops another 20%. If you don't have education, you can't handle it. You see here a loss of 30% within a bull trend. This is why most people just cannot handle volatility.
We're never cornered in some kind of position. That's why above the bull support band, slow DCA makes sense — in case we see Valhalla, which would be very nice. And we still keep in mind the bear trend, we still keep in mind the lower-high structure. Your biggest enemy is yourself. It is your brain. It is your emotions. Even if you have the best indicator that gets you in at the beginning of the bull and exits you at the beginning of the bear so you can compound your capital forever, the monkey brain cannot follow it without education.
Compounding Simulation — Why Crashes Destroy Wealth
Ivan on Tech: Here is a simulation. You start with $100K. Your annual growth rate is 8%, which is the average stock market return. Duration: 50 years. If you just don't touch it, you have $4.7 million after 50 years — inflation adjusted. Should you have a 70% crash, it goes from $4.7 million to $1.3 million. You add a crash of 70% in the first few years — this is a big problem. You never want to crash a lot because it destroys your compounding.
That's why I'm thinking about adjusting the Bulmania branding: profit, compound, protect. You first capture the profit, then you protect the profit, then you let it compound.
Solana — Support Holding, But Nothing Has Changed
Ivan on Tech: Can we look at Solana? Solana is the same as last week. Still at support. Should it break support, it has no other support until around $30. So nothing really changes here. Should it go to a bull trend, then it changes — then we say goodbye to $30. For now, it's at support, and if it breaks support, the next support is at $30. Nothing has changed with Solana because the situation has not changed. It's the same. Maybe your emotion has changed, but the situation has not. Big difference between what happens on crypto Twitter and what happens on the chart.
Pengu — Daily Bull Trend, Weekly Still Bear
Ivan on Tech: Pengu is still pumping. On the weekly, still a strong bear — very, very strong bear. On the daily, the bull trend is still on. So hopefully it can continue. Bitcoin itself is still in a bear trend on the weekly, so overall the risk is very high.
But in a bull market, this thing is going to rip. It's in a bull trend on the daily. Hopefully it can continue. I would be super bullish here if it gets to a weekly bull trend and a potential higher high. That's what you need — confirmation of the trend. The bull market support band is bullish here, but it fakes out too much. Ideally you want the money line on the weekly to be green and you want a higher-high structure. That's with Pengu and that's with most altcoins.
Macro — Oil at $106, Iran War, UAE Exits OPEC
Ivan on Tech: Trump is saying the US will score chips from the hormone trade — I mean the hormone trade deal. The problem is oil is super high. The Iran war is not over. I don't think it's over when you look at the markets. I don't care what they say on TV or in the White House. Oil is at $106. So is the war really over? We don't look at the news. We don't look at announcements. We look at the chart. According to the chart, the war is not really over. Oil is super high — super, super high. This is downward pressure on all markets.
For now, markets don't seem to care too much. In stocks, we follow the trend — the stock trend is bullish, so we're bullish. But it's good to know that oil is very, very high.
There is some hope: the UAE exits OPEC. You should research this. Why is this important? Because now they can pump oil without being restricted by OPEC rules. They can decide themselves how much they pump and how much they sell. There's no coordination with other oil nations.
OPEC is an organization where oil-exporting nations collectively decide the price of oil. It's essentially an oligarchy. They put a cap on how much each member can export. The UAE said they're exiting — they need to pump very, very high. On April 28th, the UAE announced their intention to exit OPEC on May 1st. So they already exited. Quick exit — three-day breakup. Packed up the bag and bounced.
This should bring the oil price down eventually, but we just need to see what happens. Oil itself is an indicator to us for other markets. We don't trade oil too much — it's too much of a political market to bet on. One decision, one phone call, one OPEC meeting and they move the price too much. It's like a memecoin with the founder manipulating the supply. But where oil goes can give you a nice signal for the rest of the markets.
Trend Following — The Simple Man's Approach
Ivan on Tech: Some people are asking: Ivan, it was bearish here — so was it bad? Not really. We were bearish in the bear, but then assets start going up. Whatever stop-loss you have gets hit, and if you're not shorting, nothing happens. Then you enter the bull and you have a nice fat bull trend. That's the goal.
The beauty of trend following: even when you have a fake-out — a small bear trend — that in itself signals many take-profit signals on the way down. Then should it turn, you're bullish again. Don't worry, be happy.
Am I right? Am I wrong? I enter a position. I don't know if I'm right. I don't need to check Telegram to see if I'm right. You don't have to worry whether you're right or wrong. The system is literally made so you don't have to worry. If it's bear, you're bear. If it's bull, you're bull. With stop-loss and take-profit. That's it. Simple.
Isn't life simple when you have something like this? People enter crypto to make money, to improve their life. What happens sadly in most cases is they get so much mental load — number one from holding altcoins down 90%, which is a big mental load. And then if they're trying to trade without proper risk management, it's going to be very bad. A lot of stress. You don't need that. No stress.
Ethereum — Non-Tradable, Non-Holdable
Ivan on Tech: Let's check ETH. ETH is still in a bear trend. As a chart, ETH is not super interesting to me. Why? Because it's just sideways. It's in a massive multi-year range. It's the same price as it was in 2021. It's a big tragedy overall with holding stuff in crypto.
If you look at ETH versus NASDAQ — ETH has lost about 75% since the peaks in 2021 relative to NASDAQ. It's now at massive long-term support. Let's see if it can bounce from here. But it's a big problem with holding stuff. If you held ETH since 2021, and you had NASDAQ instead, you would have four times more money. Isn't that crazy?
If you held ETH from the highs in 2017, you would now have about 60% less than if you had NASDAQ. So it's a big problem. ETH is a very uninteresting chart. It's just sideways. There's no big juicy support that it's losing in real time — unlike Solana, where you have a clear support level. That's tradeable. With ETH, it's just too much chop.
Maybe you hold it for ideological reasons. Maybe you like Vitalik. But even Vitalik dumps on your ass. This is non-tradable and non-holdable. You want to select charts that are wagyu. Solana breaking down here — that's wagyu. When it goes to a bear trend, it just goes down cleanly. That's very, very nice. Don't make your life hard. You don't have to trade difficult charts.
Altcoins — ADA, DOT, XRP, Tron, Zcash
Ivan on Tech: Most altcoins are not following Bitcoin's move. Most alts are kind of flat even though Bitcoin is going up. Look at ADA — it's close to the all-time low for this cycle at least. What's happening? Look at DOT — blue chip, blue chip, but what's happening? What's happening?
You have some strong ones. Tron is a strong coin — it's going to go to all-time high. But Tron is an exception.
Let's see Zcash. Oh, look here — this is very nice. It actually just entered a bull trend on the weekly. When it's weekly bullish, you don't over-analyze. You're happy, you say thank you, and you're bullish. It has about 30% to the previous high from here, and then to all-time high from there. With mechanical rules, with stop-loss and everything, you could use leverage here. But yeah, you have a bit of a setup to the previous high and then to Valhalla — obviously infinite from there. That's good. If it's bull on the weekly, we don't over-analyze.
Let's see XRP. I mean, it's bearish. It's like ADA, it's like everything else, it's like Polkadot. Most things are like this. Let's see if they can go into bull trends. Should they go into bull trends, okay — respect. But for now, kind of depressed at the lows.
Venice AI — Weekly Bull Trend Since January 2026
Ivan on Tech: Let's check Venice AI. Venice has been in a weekly bull trend for a very long time — since January 2026. When it's weekly bullish, you don't over-analyze. You're happy and you're bullish. It's looking super strong. If you ignore this one candle right here — which you can argue is price discovery, you can say it's all-time high — yeah, all in all, fantastic chart. I love the chart when it's weekly bullish. Fantastic.
Should it go bearish, we're out. Everyone out.
Let's see the daily. Also fantastic. Bull since February — bull, bull, bull, bull. Daily bull, weekly bull. Let's go to 12-hour — 12-hour bull. 4-hour — bull since April. 3-hour — bull. 1-hour — bull. So yeah, there you go. Very strong. Very strong.
And this is the beauty of an early weekly bull trend. Many altcoins could repeat something like this. Many altcoins are now in a stage like ADA, like most things — even Solana, if it can actually bounce from this support and not break it and go to $30. Most are here. If they can start doing something like Venice — especially a big fat candle like this — then okay, momentum is turning. We need momentum to turn.
This is where most people who are new to this channel don't understand. They want to be bullish now. But if it turns bull, I'm bull. I'm just a simple man. I see a bear trend, I'm bear. I see rain, I have an umbrella. I see a bull trend, I'm bull. It's life on easy mode. It ensures that you ride the bull, you don't go down 90% in the bear, and you profit, protect, compound. Best mental health, best profit, best compound, best protect.
Quant — Still Bearish
Ivan on Tech: Let's check Quant. Please give me a good chart. Quant — is it this old one from 2017 or what? Yeah, it's bear. It's bear. It's a bear trend on the weekly. On the daily, very clear — also bear. You wanted bull, you wanted Valhalla now. It's bear.
Altcoin Market Cap — The Overall Picture
Ivan on Tech: On the question of whether we'll see the return of altcoins: it's very simple. Most altcoins right now — stay away. If they are bullish on the weekly, you can speculate. You can long them with leverage if you want. You can accumulate. But this is the thing — don't drink too much Kool-Aid. Because should Bitcoin now create a lower high and go down, all of them are going to go down very quickly.
Look at the overall crypto market cap for altcoins excluding Bitcoin, ETH, and stablecoins. You literally see here that it's a bit weak. It's trying. It needs to go in. If this thing is bullish, if this thing is in a new bull trend, it makes sense to be bullish on altcoins. It still needs to pump quite a bit for us to be super excited — about 30%. Should we go bullish here, we're going to be bullish. But right now, looking at the overall picture, this chart can easily break down. For profit, protect, compound — I cannot be bullish here. Even if it goes up, it would be luck. It would not be a repeatable strategy.
On the daily, it's bearish. You need it to pump about 15–16% to go bullish on the daily. So if you want to be bullish faster, look at the daily — but then you need to have a stop-loss and you have to become bearish fast in case it reverses. More risk means more responsibility to react quickly to the other side.
On the daily with the money line, you have quite good back-testing stats. If you enter, you have a 94% chance to get at least one ATR in profit. Why do we measure ATR? Because ATR is how you set your stop-loss. ATR is a metric of volatility. You set your stop-loss based on the volatility of the asset so that normal intraday volatility doesn't stop you out. And it's interesting to know how likely you are to recoup that risk if a new bull trend starts. You risk whatever the distance to stop-loss is — measured in ATR. I want to know with what likelihood I'll get one ATR profit or two ATR profit, because I risked one ATR. In this case, 3 ATR is 70%. So all in all, on a bull flip, it's good odds.
Oil as a War Indicator — Don't Trust Announcements
Ivan on Tech: If the Iran war ends soon, we go back into risk-on. And how do you know if it's ended? You look at the oil price. You don't look at whatever Trump says. Trump says it's over, he said it to Congress, to the Senate — it's over. But if the oil price is at $100, $90, and it doesn't go back to the $70s and $60s, it's not over. It's not over. For now, it's risk-off.