Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's bear market position, Michael Saylor's Bitcoin sales, and crypto news
Ivan on Tech's daily crypto market analysis show covering Bitcoin price action, Strategy (MicroStrategy), political developments, and altcoin news.
Summary
Bitcoin is currently in a buy zone, according to the host's regular market analysis, arguing (the "green box") and that Michael Saylor's sale of $216 million worth of Bitcoin to fund Strategy's preferred stock (STRK/STRC) dividends is actually a bullish signal — because major sellers typically appear near market bottoms. He contends that Strategy's financial structure was always leveraged Bitcoin exposure, not "infinite money," and that Wall Street is now catching on. Ivan also covers Trump's renewed pro-crypto rhetoric, which he attributes to approaching midterm elections, and Senator Cynthia Lummis's push for the military to acquire one million Bitcoin for a strategic reserve. Additional topics include a governance attack on Bonk DAO that drained $20 million from its treasury, Ansem's memecoin outperforming Trump's memecoin, and Ethereum's proposal to adopt a UTXO model to reduce node state bloat.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Price Action and the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average
Ivan on Tech: Guys, welcome to another episode. As you can see right now, Bitcoin is doing something very interesting. We're now back above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average. We did see a bit of a pump yesterday, all the way up to $64,000. But just like I told you guys, we are likely facing a retest of this 200-day Exponential Moving Average before the next flash down towards the $40,000s and $50,000s. And it's very good for us because it's a big discount. This is the buy zone. Everything in the green box that you see here means cheap Bitcoin. So DCA here is fantastic. But likely, guys, we're going to have another small dip down — maybe $50,000, maybe $40,000 — with a very high likelihood. Not guaranteed. Nothing is guaranteed, but very likely.
Michael Saylor and Strategy's Bitcoin Sales
Ivan on Tech: Also, guys, Saylor is now dumping. The big news yesterday was that Saylor dumped $216 million worth of Bitcoin in order to fund the dividends for STRK. STRK is not doing well. It cannot even recover to $100 with all of this. He's trying to get it up. He's trying to tell the market, "Hey market, I have money. Please believe me. I have money to pay the dividend. Please go up to $100." The market gave him a bit — some people bought — but it's still so far away from $100. We were starting to sound the alarm bell already at $98, $96. Now it is $88. Let's see if he can get it back to $100.
But at the end of the day, he needs to sell more Bitcoin to fund the dividends. He will have to sell more Bitcoin. Maybe Strategy Maxis will finally understand: this is how the dividends are funded. Either you dilute the shareholders by selling MSTR stock and buying Bitcoin, or selling MSTR stock and paying dividends — which he has to do now. He cannot buy Bitcoin anymore. He needs to sell and then pay dividends. Or he just needs to sell Bitcoin to pay dividends. There is no second best. There is no other option.
Guys, the good thing is that we are likely around the bottom. We're seeing peak problems with Strategy. They are dumping, and likely Saylor is selling near or close to the Bitcoin bottom. That's why — don't get surprised if we go down to the $50,000s and $40,000s quite fast, or maybe we bottom out here. Any of these options are good for us. We don't care whether we go to $40,000 or $50,000. I think it's a high likelihood, but potentially we don't, because we're so far into the bear. You should have sold in Q4, in October, like I told you. Now it's so far along that whether we go or don't go, it's a bit secondary. We reached the buy zone. We reached the promised land, and now things are quite good in terms of signals — big signals that potentially this is the bottom, with Saylor selling.
Also, guys, some people are saying, "Ivan, you're too harsh on Saylor, because Saylor said never sell your Bitcoin." But he can sell Bitcoin. Do you remember that he explained what he meant? He said he was always honest and upfront, and that he meant that you don't sell — but he sells. Okay, listen to this.
Michael Saylor: "Well, the point is — I said to you, never sell your Bitcoin. I never said that the company wouldn't sell its Bitcoin, and anybody that's been—"
Ivan on Tech: Yeah. You remember that? Well, when you look at his old tweets — look here. "The rules of Bitcoin: buy Bitcoin, don't sell the Bitcoin, never sell the Bitcoin." Saylor said it. "When you buy Bitcoin, you strengthen the network. When you sell Bitcoin, you weaken it." Saylor said it. "You do not sell your Bitcoin. Sell a kidney if you must, but keep the Bitcoin." Guys, apparently it's some kind of misunderstanding. He meant that he can sell, but you — you sell your kidney. He doesn't sell the kidney. I love it.
But guys, listen. We're beating a dead horse here. All of you guys know we've been super careful with Strategy. We said to be careful already months and months and months ago. We also said that should Strategy get into bigger problems, should they sell big amounts, likely we're close to the bottom — because the market always makes the best scenario the reality. Saylor buying at $120,000 and then selling at $60,000 is like the best scenario. You buy super high and you sell super low. Fantastic.
So don't get surprised, guys, if we're getting close to the bottom here. And this is one of the bull signals. Actually, Saylor selling is a bull signal — at least for Bitcoin. For MicroStrategy, for STRK, you guys are on your own if you have that. I'm not part of that. I've already explained to you many times why. If you're there, good luck. I just keep to Bitcoin.
If you want more volatility — because people say, "I want more money, just Bitcoin is not enough, so I want more money, that's why I buy MicroStrategy, so it pumps more" — well, for that you can use Bitcoin with leverage yourself. This is what's so crazy, because what MicroStrategy is doing is Bitcoin with leverage. You can do what Saylor is doing, but you can do it better, because Saylor is just winging it. He's literally winging the whole thing.
And literally the worst capital allocator I've ever seen — buying at $120,000, selling at $60,000. Guys, you cannot make it up.
Wall Street Recognizes Strategy's Structural Problem
Ivan on Tech: Look here. Wall Street is also understanding it. Overall, we do see a kind of see-through of this bluff of infinite money. Listen to this.
Wall Street Analyst: "They've been issuing debt to generate cash to then turn around and buy Bitcoin. The issue now is that both of those products are trading below par value. They can't issue more of those securities to create a bid for Bitcoin. At the same time, they have a contractual obligation to pay back billions of dollars in the coming years. There's only two ways they can generate that cash. They can either sell their Bitcoin — which is what they've started to do. So if you remember, I think a year ago, Michael Saylor said, 'If you must, sell your kidney, but whatever you do, don't sell your Bitcoin.' Well, he's selling the Bitcoin. So either you sell your Bitcoin or you dilute your common stock by issuing shares of MicroStrategy. That is the reason why we have the hangover in this category."
Ivan on Tech: Yeah. So guys, overall, even though we've been calling out Saylor for many, many months now, the conclusion here — now that the whole world understands it — is that it's bullish. You understand? Things are only bearish before they materialize. When a bearish thing happens and it materializes, the noob will make the mistake of thinking, "Okay, now it's bearish, the bearish thing happened, so now I have to be—" No. No, no, no. Markets are always forward-looking.
If the pleb does not understand something, the pleb lives in la-la land. We knew that this Strategy thing — it's not infinite money, it's just taking on leverage and buying Bitcoin. We had an advantage here because we knew since Q4, since January this year, that at some point this is going to unravel, kind of like it's doing now. So for us, the bearish scenario has already taken place. If we are forward-looking, you see it can only get better from here. That's the way to view markets — to be forward-looking. So for me, this is more of an "okay, now it's time to be even more bullish." That's very, very important.
That's why the buy zone that we've been speaking about since Q4, since October last year — we were risk-off since here — it is materializing very, very nicely. Our track record here is fantastic, and all of you guys who have been following along, congrats, because now you have a lot of money to invest in this market. Most audiences don't. Most audiences have to pray that this market comes back. Instead, our audience has the war chest now to deploy. Everything here is cheap. We can deploy 10–20% before the bull flip here in the green buy zone, then when it flips bullish we go heavy — all in — and it's going to go to Valhalla, just like it did when the bull flip happened before.
Senator Lummis and the Military Bitcoin Reserve Push
Ivan on Tech: Now, switching gears a bit. We do have Senator Lummis coming out saying that the military is going to buy one million Bitcoin. She's pushing and pushing and pushing for you guys. Unfortunately, here's the thing — I think we are used as a bit of cattle here, because the politicians now, including Trump, they start speaking about the reserve, they start speaking about how crypto is so great, because it's midterm. We are the election cattle, just so you know. Maybe they're going to give us the reserve. Who the hell knows? Just like you're a cattle cow — maybe you get a bit of hay so you stick around until it's time for Thanksgiving.
It is interesting now that, with midterms suddenly approaching, out of nowhere the military is going to buy one million Bitcoin. Why didn't you buy? You had so much time to buy. Let's see what she says.
Senator Cynthia Lummis: "There are generals, especially in Southeast Asia, who believe it's important to have a strategic Bitcoin stockpile, because we're doing an economic war with China and we have to prepare for a guns-and-bullets war, but we need both. And so all we need to do is look to the leadership of the current US military to find support for a strategic Bitcoin reserve."
Ivan on Tech: Yeah. I mean, listen — Lummis is fantastic. I don't know what she's delivered. Has she delivered anything? Maybe she has. Big shout out to Cynthia Lummis. It's good. She's pro-Bitcoin. But sometimes you look back and think — what has she actually done? Okay, yes, the narrative is very important for us. Pro-crypto narrative in the Senate is good. But delivery, man. What's your KPI, lady? In business you have to deliver to shareholders each and every quarter. You have to sell, do things, do business — KPI. Come on, Lummis. Give us the reserve. Get the generals to buy. Stop just speaking about it. That is the frustration I have, because now it's midterm and suddenly everyone loves us again. Crypto is a big industry. Big, big industry.
Trump on Crypto, China, and the Biden Administration
Ivan on Tech: Trump started speaking about crypto yet again yesterday. Midterms are soon. You've got to speak. Listen to this.
Donald Trump: "We're leading China by a lot. We're leading everybody. Crypto is the same thing. If we didn't do it, China would do it. It's a massive industry. And frankly, when I went very pro-crypto — as you know, Biden was totally against it. He had no idea what crypto is. He didn't have a clue. But they were very violently against it. They were putting people in jail. What they were doing to the crypto world was horrible. It's amazing it survived that onslaught. It was a weaponization of government.
So when I went very much for it — and I must have gotten, I think, 100% of the vote — it was a hundred million people. That's a big industry and that means some pretty good things. But what happened is Biden then, after he was getting killed, he was down so much — all of a sudden they became pro-crypto. And their head of the SEC was horrible, unlike Paul, who's really good. I mean, he's the best man for the job. Everybody wanted him. But the previous guy was horrible — what he was doing to crypto. They were putting people in jail. Good people, great, prestigious people. They were putting them in jail. And I said, 'You've got to be kidding.'
They were trying to destroy the industry. So now I'm killing Biden and winning by so much, and all of a sudden he becomes totally pro-crypto. They dropped all investigations of everybody. They allowed people to come out of jail. And every time I see a crypto guy where they dropped an investigation, I said, 'You're lucky I'm president.'"
Ivan on Tech: Yeah. I mean, it is like that. Yes. You had a lot of time. They have a lot of time to do the reserve. But now finally the White House is saying to deliver on the president's vision. The Trump administration continues to evaluate the best structure for a Bitcoin reserve.
Now again, guys — for us it doesn't really matter, reserve or no reserve. Bitcoin is going to enter a bull market anyway later this year. It doesn't actually really matter. But people get excited. I see people getting excited again. "Ivan, Ivan, look — it's going to be the reserve!" Guys, you are cattle. You're cattle for the election. That's it.
After the election there's going to be maybe some meeting, or maybe they do the reserve. Maybe we're going to get surprised. Who the hell knows? Because he needs to be a bit strategic here. Republicans have a presidential election coming up, and they cannot give everything too fast. They need to save some. Maybe they save the reserve until the presidential election. They say, "Hey, you need to elect us again, then we're going to get the reserve." You have to be a bit strategic as a politician. You give everything too fast, people are never happy anyway. Even if you're a great politician, the pleb is still not going to be happy. So you cannot give everything too fast. You need to drip-feed the pleb a bit of good stuff, but not everything.
So let's see if we're going to be drip-fed the reserve or if they're going to save it. I think they're going to save it.
Trump on the Stock Market and Short Sellers
Ivan on Tech: Now, guys, one thing he's not saving is pumping the market. The stock market is doing very, very well, and he's coming out calling out the short sellers. Be careful, guys. Be careful. Listen to this.
Donald Trump: "David, Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, BlackRock — they're all here. And think of it, I'm making them all geniuses. Every one of them is a genius. Is anybody doing poorly? I guess you have a couple of guys that went short. Those poor bastards. They are in big trouble. They're being wiped out. They're short guys. I never like short guys because they're betting against the country."
Ivan on Tech: Yeah. The stock market, guys — when Trump is in office, any bull trend, it's up only. NASDAQ, S&P, everything is up only. Bull trend and Trump is like the best. Trump says short sellers are getting wiped out. Those poor bastards. Wiped out bigly. Fantastic.
Whale Positioning and the Bull Market Flip Level
Ivan on Tech: Looking at what's happening with the whales, we do see on Hyperliquid that whales are positioning bullish — you have a $63 million 40x long, a $54 million 10x long on ETH, a $30 million 20x long. Let's see if the whales are correct or not. But we're still in a bear trend. Currently being too bullish with leverage to the upside — not good risk-reward. For me at least, it's not good risk-reward. We're still taking it easy, accumulating here, expecting another leg down. But yeah, it's quite late in the bear market. So will we get it or will we not get it? Let's see.
We're now in the cheap green buy zone. It is a buy zone. And look here — something else that's interesting: the flip level for the money line for the bull market is now at $81,000. Just a few weeks ago it was at $91,000. So the bull market flip is moving down very, very nicely. At some point we're going to flip it, and then it's going to be Valhalla time, just like in the last bull market.
Cloudflare Integrates X402 Standard for AI Crypto Payments
Ivan on Tech: Now moving on — some news from Cloudflare. Cloudflare is now integrating the X402 standard so that AI agents and any other servers can pay each other with crypto. So instead of logging in, creating an API key, and adding your card to use the API, you can just use the X402 standard developed by Coinbase — which is like a standard HTTP code that they've repurposed for crypto payments. Now Cloudflare is adopting it, which is quite nice. It's good for adoption of stablecoins as payment for AI — basically so that AI can do things, pay for things, unlock things, get access to APIs itself, just by using simple HTTP. That's that.
Polymarket Lawsuit Tests Terms of Service and Jurisdiction
Ivan on Tech: Now there's also a bit of a lawsuit against Polymarket. Basically, some people don't agree with how one of their bets turned out. They thought they were correct but got an incorrect judgment by Polymarket somehow. It's interesting because it's basically testing how Polymarket is set up. For example: can the plaintiffs keep the case in New York? Do the terms of service require arbitration? Does the Panama choice-of-law forum clause control?
The lawsuit is in New York, but the terms of service say it needs to be in Panama. Can you actually write in terms of service that we're going to go to a specific jurisdiction to do a lawsuit, or can you actually sue wherever you want regardless of what it says in the terms of service? Also — can the $100 liability limitation be enforced? Because in Polymarket's terms of service it says that the maximum they can give you if you're unhappy is $100. And do New York consumer protection statutes reach this conduct?
Let's see. It's interesting that we have more case law developing. This obviously is not going to kill Polymarket, but potentially a bit of case law on how the courts interpret all of these different questions — now that these people want some money from Polymarket. That's good for the industry overall, that there's case law for what's happening and how different situations should be judged.
Michael Burry Warns on AI Stocks
Ivan on Tech: Next, Michael Burry is coming out saying that the end of AI stocks is coming very, very close. And to some extent I do agree, because a lot of the AI stocks are now starting to go into a bear trend. When they go bear trend, it's just more likely that they're going to keep going down. This is something we track quite a lot. More and more of them are actually now turning to the dark side of the force — to the bear force. Not everything is bearish now, but more and more is starting to become bearish — 100%.
SpaceX IPO Hype Fades
Ivan on Tech: Let's see how SpaceX is doing now. Still no trend on the daily or weekly. On the hourly — it never actually went into a bull trend. So this is the power of the money line yet again. You see this pump — we said wait for the bull flip. The bull flip never happened on the hourly. Still bearish.
SpaceX basically played out exactly like we said — pump into the IPO, people super hyping it up, people in Costco and Target buying SpaceX while they wait for the cashier. Literally there were screenshots like this, just like when gold peaked out in the parabola and people were buying gold in big lines in China. The pleb gets super excited for a few hours — and literally, this was a few hours of trading that it ran up this high. Then it was down only. We said, "Take it easy. No need to FOMO. We're going to see supply and demand." And now we see supply and demand. It's still not a bull trend.
At some point it's going to turn bullish. At some point we're going to go to Mars with Elon Musk — at least in the price chart.
Ripple Gets MiCA Compliance
Ivan on Tech: Ripple, Ripple, Ripple — finally got MiCA compliance. I'm actually curious what service they provide. I mean, the way they monetize is by dumping the coin, but what are they actually going to provide? Which service? They say institutions they work with across Europe are looking to build digital — what service? They have their own stablecoin, RLUSD. Institutions are not going to use XRP for payments, but XRP in terms of price being high in the market cap — it's the best. But I'm actually curious: they got licensed for what? What kind of consumer service? If you are following XRP and there are communities only following XRP, let me know how you become their client.
Pump.fun Revenue and Governance
Ivan on Tech: Next, guys — Pump.fun doesn't have MiCA. That's actually interesting. Can Pump.fun operate now in Europe or not? Because I can assure you Pump.fun has zero MiCA compliance. But they have a blog post, and in the blog post they write: protocol fees from the bonding curve, PumpSwap, and terminal totaled $7.2 million for the week of last week. That's good. Good revenue. 50% of net fees are routed to programmatic PUMP buybacks.
But where's the pump in the price? On the hourly, at least, there is a pump — you could swing trade it on the hourly. Fantastic trade actually. But on the daily, still super bearish. Be careful. Over the past seven days, 3.7 million PUMP tokens were bought back and burned. That's good.
Bonk DAO Governance Attack — $20 Million Drained
Ivan on Tech: Oh guys, this is my favorite from yesterday — well, not my favorite, but the most interesting. Bonk DAO got hacked. Or rather — a malicious governance proposal resulted in $20 million worth of BONK being drained from the treasury. Someone proposed to pay out $20 million to themselves to do social media promotion or something. During the investigation, Bonk DAO identified the exchange wallets used to purchase BONK ahead of the proposal. Bonk DAO is currently actively working with exchanges.
So somehow this is not a hack. Someone basically did a proposal and then voted for it themselves and got it through. Let me read more. The Bonk DAO proposal is a great example of why treasuries matter and why they actually work — keeping meaningful ownership to align incentives if a team wants a voice. So basically, someone bought enough coins on exchange and then created a proposal to drain the treasury and voted for it using the coins they bought.
Bonk DAO wasn't a hack. It was a whale buying enough supply to control the vote entirely, voting to send himself $20 million. And the vote was live for six days and no one noticed it.
So is it really a hack? Because it is community governance — it is community voting. The whale had enough money to drain the fund. This is something you could even build an industry around. You take out debt — let's say you come together with your group, you see that you need maybe $5 million, but you get $20 million back. That's like the best VC investment ever, with a very fast payout. And how many DAOs have this vulnerability?
Now it's going to be very interesting to find out whether it is seen as a hack or not, because they know the guy — they 100% know the guy, because they figured out the exchange. There was a centralized exchange used here that they identified, which means that likely they have KYC on the guy.
Personally, I don't see too much of an issue with it. If you have a DAO, why you built it like that — you set it up like that. It was a fair vote with tokens. Anyone can submit a proposal. Now, I don't know the proposal exactly, but maybe he delivers. Have they asked that? Maybe the guy will deliver on the proposal. If he does not deliver on the proposal, then it's a problem. But what was the actual proposal?
Let me see. He needs to implement governance, install new members, rebuild from ashes, monetize holdings, stop the bleeding. All yes voters are eligible to receive — okay, everyone who votes yes is going to be rewarded. Add metadata. Okay. Well, let's see. Is he laundering the money yet? We need to see the Bonk chart. Did he dump the BONK yet or not? Because if he's worried, he needs to move the asset very fast.
He didn't dump too much, I guess. He's still holding. So give the man time to rebuild from the ashes. He needs to rebuild from the ashes. He needs to install new members. If he delivers on that, I don't see any problems. The BONK didn't even dump that much. So he's not trying to flee to Tornado Cash. Let him deliver on the proposal. It got passed. He needs to stop the bleeding. If he can get BONK into a bull trend, then fantastic — because the current treasury was not able to do that. If the guy can stop the bleeding and rebuild from ashes, I think it's fantastic.
Is it a hack or is it not a hack? Big question.
YGG Gaming Publisher Shuts Down
Ivan on Tech: YGG — Yield Guild Games — is shutting down. Not too much news, but I included it anyway for all you gaming fans. But no one is playing these games anyway. YGG was one of few gaming publishers in crypto that always acted in good faith and put out some really fun games. But no one cares. People wanted to make profit. They didn't make profit. And yeah, now they can do something else.
Was it actually that fun — like Runescape-level fun where you spend your time? I don't think so. I don't think so.
Crypto Gaming's Next Run — Likely on Solana
Ivan on Tech: Now look here — Kagi is coming out saying we are going to see another gaming run, and it will most likely start on Solana. Fully agree. Fully agree. Not immediately though. Overall, we're still in a bearish market.
For a long time, one thing the industry was missing was convincing gamblers that it's far more fun to gamble while playing a game than to stare at a chart. That's actually very true. That's why crypto gaming exists, guys — it's not to rebuild a game that's fun. It's for gambling to be embedded in gameplay. Instead of staring at a chart, you can stare at a cute pixelated guy that's fishing, or chopping a tree, or doing firemaking, or chiseling an uncut sapphire — you get crafting XP, from there you can enhance the sapphire, you get more XP. It's like a road map.
The hard part will be navigating the Solana ecosystem, which is full of rugs. Some are so elaborate that teams will build a real game, keep it live for a month, grow a community around it, and still have the intention of rugging it from the very beginning.
And it's very interesting — they say it's hard being an influencer. You guys don't understand. Look here: "I'm playing this new crypto game I like and I'm afraid it will rug. If it rugs, I'm a scammer. If it does good, I'm a hero. Only in crypto do you have to worry about that." Exactly.
So, guys, when we speak about small shitcoins — and today by the way we haven't even spoken about small shitcoins — that's why I keep reminding you guys that it's your responsibility. If it goes to zero, don't come crying to me. I will not listen to you for one second. The only way I can speak to you about small micro shitcoins is if you never come crying here. Maybe it's a rug. I don't know. It's not my responsibility. I'm only responsible for my portfolio.
You want to make money. You're profit-driven. In the markets, we're all a bit greedy — nothing to hide here. You want the money. You take a risk. This thing goes to zero — fair play. You took a risk. Maybe it would have made you a lot of money. This time you take a risk, you lose. Fully fair. Never come crying here. That's why we say the big boy pants. Please confirm that you have the biggest big boy pants ever.
For now though, we're still not in a bull market. We don't discuss too many small shitcoins. But in the bull market, it's going to be a lot. And I will require you to confirm, otherwise we don't speak about shitcoins — we only speak about Bitcoin. But I know you guys want shitcoins. Stop lying. Stop lying. Everyone wants the small, big-upside, zero-downside play. But it's risk. It's big risk. They may go to zero. That's the rule of the game.
Ethereum's Proposed Native UTXO Model
Ivan on Tech: What else? Oh yeah — on ETH, guys, they want to have native UTXO. To make the state smaller, basically. If you're a technical person, you know it. If you're not technical, just think of it this way: the ETH node has to do a lot of work. A lot of storage and a lot of computation when you want to look things up.
The way ETH works right now, using the account model, it's not too efficient in comparison to UTXO and Bitcoin when it comes to the state. The state is basically the information that the nodes — the servers — need to hold. A network like ETH or Bitcoin is a bunch of nodes, and nodes are just servers. It's a bunch of computers speaking to other computers. On ETH now, the computers that speak to other computers — the nodes — need to hold a lot of information in memory and they need to have this permanent state, which is growing larger and larger.
One of the pros of the UTXO model on Bitcoin is that this state is way smaller. Cardano has a UTXO model — it doesn't help them with the price at all — but there is a bit of a move now to bring UTXO to ETH.
On Ethereum, receiving a payment adds state forever. The first time an address receives ETH, as soon as someone sends anything to an address, now all nodes on the whole network need to keep track of it — and track it forever, even if it's never used again. Bitcoin works differently. A Bitcoin payment is a one-shot object: created once, spent once, then gone — deleted from the state. With UTXO, if a UTXO is spent, it's gone from the state. The nodes don't have to track it. The chain remembers that the UTXO was spent, not an account balance.
This property is worth borrowing, and Ethereum can have it without giving up accounts for payment workloads that do not need persistent state. Native UTXOs bring the permanent state usage down by roughly 99.8%. Let's see if they do it.
But yeah, I mean — these guys are kind of winging the road map now also. Vitalik came out with a big fat road map out of nowhere yesterday. He said they met with researchers and client developers and created this big fat road map. We had a like 30-minute talk about it yesterday — go and watch.
People say that Solana is centralized, sometimes this and that, but on Solana all of the changes are voted on. The road map stuff is voted on. On ETH, if Vitalik says "we do L2," then off we go. They had such a big road map for L2 — with the Splurge, with the Merge, with the Purge. Do you remember? Now — no more. New road map. Now it's privacy, quantum resistance, basically whatever is a hot discussion on Twitter. That's the new road map. They're winging it, guys. Let's see if this winging works out or not. But I think they need to come down from the high horse, be humble, and deliver stuff that leads to dApps, users, etc. Figure it out.
SUI Claims 6 Million TPS — But No Users
Ivan on Tech: Next, SUI said that they hit 6 million TPS — the highest TPS recorded by a blockchain. Now, for non-technical people this seems impressive. It's not impressive, because this TPS is just running the node on one machine without a network. It's a node that runs itself — it can be very fast, of course, because it doesn't have to speak to any other node. It's not a network.
And just like people point out: SUI has 6 million TPS and $1,000 of daily revenue. So no one is using it. What is this? You have the biggest TPS — where is the DEX? Where is the perp exchange? Where's the prediction market? Where's the memes? Where are the games? Where is all of it? It's nowhere to be seen. Big problem.
Q&A and Community Discussion
Ivan on Tech: Guys, on this note, let's go to Q&A — questions, answers, debates, discussions. Let's go.
Let's see how SUI is doing on the chart. Is it bull trend? Bear trend? Sideways? What's happening on the hourly? On the daily, still bear. Still bear. So be careful. That's why on the hourly you can trade short-term. On anything else, don't think long-term here because it's still bear, it's still very bad. High, lower high, lower high, lower high, lower high. Very bad on the weekly. On the weekly it is pooping the bed. It wants to go to $0.55 — the previous support — that's the next station. And then the next station after that is around $0.38. Very bad. Very bad.
So yeah, guys, don't even think about long-term here. It's still so bearish. But the bull flip is at $1.20, and we were at $1.20 at the beginning of May. So the bull flip is catching up with the price. At some point it's going to turn bullish.
And some people say — yeah, sadly, with the liquidity cycle thesis, some of these things are down a lot. People have lost livelihoods here. That's the power of the trend. You don't respect the trend, you're going to be like this. Very important.
Nine years have flown by. Yeah, it's crazy. Time flies, man. Time flies. 2017 — you remember 2017? You remember all those crazy pumps in 2017? It was soon ten years ago. The Bcash big block debate. It was 2017, man. Almost ten years. It's like from the dot-com bubble to 2010. Holy crap, guys.
I remember explaining Cardano on the whiteboard — well, it was a paper board. I did a video, "What is Cardano?" — I think it got like 200,000 views or something. We never actually returned to that kind of mania. Look here — "Difference between coin, token, and protocol" — 175,000 views. That was the power of the 2017 bull. We never went back to those levels. "What is Nano?" — you guys remember Nano, the RaiBlocks? Oh my god. Eight years ago, it was like yesterday. TRON 2017. "Is Hashgraph replacing blockchain?" — I remember it like yesterday.
And since then — "How to create your own coin." I need to give an update on that. The biggest videos were "How to create your own coin." Holy crap. Mike Maloney was here. The Moon was here. You guys remember Amadu from back in the day? He predicted the top quite nicely, man.
Maybe next bull market we bring back the old studio. Let's see. Now technology has evolved and there are screens that are not hot. Having them up for a few hours, man — it was radiating heat. This setup is nice. It's cozy. We're kind of discussing here, drinking a bit of coffee. It's nice.
You think Andreas Antonopoulos is rich now? I think he's okay. I think he got a few million from the community. I remember he was in some conflict with Roger Ver, and then the community gave him like three million or something, because Roger Ver said that Andreas is poor despite being in Bitcoin forever. And then Andreas said, "Yeah, but I had to spend money on family," and then the community gave him three million bucks. So yeah. Hope he's okay. He's not super active lately.
Do you think Cookie will go hard this cycle? Let's check the chart. There's no way to know about a coin before the coin shows itself. It doesn't look too good right now, but their product is good. The team is still building. If it goes bull, I will be bullish. Right now it's very bad price-wise. Stay away. Don't touch right now. But if it goes bull, fantastic. I mean, Cookie is no exception — it's like any other coin. I don't know which coins are going to come back. It's impossible to know, because it depends on the team, it depends on their market maker, it depends on if they want to bring it back and be part of the next cycle. Some teams don't want to be part of the next cycle. They had a cycle, they did their coin, they're happy. Now they can continue with business without the coin. So yeah, I don't know. But if they go bull, fantastic. They have a good product.
Ansem's Memecoin Surpasses Trump's Memecoin in Market Cap
Ivan on Tech: Now, Ansem has flipped Trump's memecoin in market cap. Ansem is now bigger. Let's see how long it flies. The bull trend for now is very bullish — very, very bullish, going higher and higher and higher. Bull trend is here, and now bigger than SHOP.
This celebrity era — when it comes to influencer coins — for now is still running. Some people have tried replicating it, doing their own — I think Gluke Belmore did some kind of pump and dump, some other people did also — but Ansem is the only one who is holding up nicely. 110,000 holders and 94% are in profit, because it is going all-time high to all-time high. On the money scanner on the hourly time frame, there's still a bull trend. That's the one to follow.
And he's trying to do something — I have to give him props for trying to bring the trenches back, still within the Bitcoin bear trend. It's going to be super tough, but he's succeeding. Big shout out to the progress this far.
He's giving updates: adding SOL liquidity from creator fees to the liquidity pool, so it's easier for the price to absorb sales from early buyers and deeper liquidity for new whales to buy. That's one. Two — will prioritize airdropping SOL to the best bag holders on social. So there is net buying pressure on Ansem from continued virality. Ansem airdrops will be staggered at higher market caps with added bonuses for longer hold time. There you go.
He should maybe add staking — stake it for five years, for thirty years. There's a certain community that is the best at that. Believing in something and locking up their money for many decades so they cannot exit.
He also says: stop sending him large supplies of new coins attempting to vampire existing ones for attention. Talk to people on the normie marketing funnels — Instagram and TikTok.
So far so good. Still alive. The meta is still alive for Ansem.
Trump and the Red Card Controversy
Ivan on Tech: Oh guys, this is my favorite from yesterday. Trump discussing — a bit off topic from crypto — but I kind of recognize myself in Trump here, because Trump said he literally just yesterday learned what a red card in football is. And at the same time, he's calling FIFA to ensure that the red card is removed from the American player. Amazing. Listen to this.
Donald Trump: "So I saw the play, and I'm a person that loves sports and was a good athlete, and I understand sports really well, really well. And that wasn't a foul. That wasn't even an infraction. That was two guys running full speed that happened to crash into each other. You can't take your foot and properly place it on somebody else's foot when you're going full speed. These were two great athletes that got tangled up.
And by the way — when you watch football, the slightest touch, he falls over. He looks like he broke his leg. It was the slightest touch.
They don't show them in slow motion. And I never realized that. I never heard of that before — that they're not allowed to review in slow motion — because it's so different. Because you'll take one little quarter of a second and you'll see that a hand is touching a neck, or you see something. Whereas when you see it in fast motion, it will look like two guys collided, which is really what happened. They got entangled. He didn't do anything wrong. And he's our best player, or one of our best players — a very vital player. And he gave me a red card. I didn't know what that meant. I didn't think it meant much. Then I started hearing that that means he can't play in the next game. I said, 'Boy, that's a big deal.' If it happened to another player, it would have been unfair. But when they take your best player — or just about — and say you can't play, that's very unfair. It's one thing to penalize somebody for the game."
Ivan on Tech: Yeah. I mean, this is something — this is something. Fantastic. Trump, holy crap.
I fully support Trump in this initiative. The red card is given out too easily. And like he says, if there were two great athletes that just got tangled up, they just got tangled up. That's not a red card. The referee is a little bit suspect. If you check his past — I don't want to say that because I don't like to create controversy — but very suspect. He made a call that nobody could believe. Even people on the other side said, "Oh, we got lucky."