Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's rejection at resistance and broader crypto/market conditions
Ivan on Tech presents a live market analysis session covering Bitcoin's technical setup, SpaceX's IPO dynamics, MicroStrategy's STRETH product, the FOMC meeting, and various altcoin trends.
This live stream market update focuses on Bitcoin's rejection at the $65K resistance level, which he argues increases the probability of a further decline to the $50K–$40K range before a bull market resumes. He discusses SpaceX's IPO as a retail FOMO event with significant unlock pressure coming in August and September, and raises concerns about MicroStrategy's STRETH product, arguing that Saylor needs to raise the yield from roughly 11% to at least 12–12.5% to restore the peg. Ivan also covers the upcoming FOMC press conference under Kevin Warsh, noting that lower oil prices and the Iran ceasefire give the Fed dovish ammunition to cut rates credibly. The session includes commentary on tokenized stocks (including a sardonic dismissal of ECB President Christine Lagarde's claim that tokenized finance cannot scale without central bank money settlement), Hyperliquid versus Binance, Cardano's Discord migration, an extensive altcoin and stock trend scan, and a Q&A segment with community members.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Rejection at $65K Resistance
Ivan on Tech: Right now, Bitcoin is doing something very interesting. We're getting rejected by this big support that we started to create back in February. We bounced at this support at $65K for a few months, then we had a fake high — just a lower high — then we collapsed down, found support at the 200-week Moving Average, and now we've been trying to bounce back. But this big fat resistance at $65K is holding us down, keeping us in the basement.
If you've been watching during the last few weeks, you know that overall we're starting to mentally prepare for the bull, but at the same time we do expect a move down to $50K, maybe even $40K, as the final leg down. The fact that we are seeing rejection here at this level just makes it more likely that we get into this cheaper buy zone. Everything in the green box is in the cheaper buy zone. Everything in the green box is cheap, but there is cheap and there is cheaper. You have 50% off your plasma TV sometimes, or maybe on Black Friday it's 70% off. So if we get further down into the buy zone, it's going to be an even bigger deal, an even bigger discount for Bitcoin.
Also, if we get down here, the flip level for the bull market, for the bull trend, is going to come down with us, and we're likely going to be in the $60s for the flip level within the coming weeks, should we go to the $40s or $50s.
Let me know in the chat if you want us to go there. I see someone — Akshay — saying "I want $42K Bitcoin." Exactly. If you also want it, write "I want $42K Bitcoin" in the comment section, because that would be very, very nice. It would be very cheap. It would be a discount.
SpaceX IPO Dynamics and Unlock Risk
In this kind of situation where we are right now, with retail being all-in on SpaceX, and with the administration potentially arranging the Iran deal so that it expires right when the first unlocks for the SpaceX stock happen — let's see if that's the case. If they did the peace, the Iran ceasefire, right when SpaceX got launched, and then the 60-day extension of the peace expires right when the unlocks are done — because there are many unlocks coming. There's going to be a lot of unlocks in SpaceX. It's crazy.
August, August, September, September. Right now we're just at 5% circulating. It's the lowest float ever. It's kind of like a meme coin — you create a meme coin, you release 10 coins out of a million, the valuation pumps, everyone is excited, but you just have a few coins. So now they've just released 5%. In August, plus 20% will be unlocked. On August 21st, just 10 days after, another 7%. So very, very quickly this will create massive, massive sell pressure.
The retail plebe is in there. But at the same time, don't bet against Elon. I mean, Elon sometimes pulls off things which don't make sense on paper, and then you see it pumps anyway. So we just have to look at the trends.
SpaceX Hourly Trend Analysis
Actually, we do have a bit of a trend here on the hourly. Congratulations — we do have our first trend. So let's see how this plays out. The candle that is opening may potentially take it into a bull trend, but still on the hourly it would be a bear trend. So keep an eye here.
Now that we finally have a confirmed trend, we have something to work with. If it is the case that it goes into bull trend on the hourly — listen, we're bullish. It's Elon. Sometimes he does things which are crazy, which weren't supposed to happen, but still they happened. It was supposedly super bad, overvalued, bad valuation, this and that, super high — it still pumps. Many people have lost billions of dollars trying to short Tesla. So I'm not saying to be bearish on SpaceX. I'm just saying play it in the way where the cards are stacked in your favor. By being in the bull trend, you know the cards are stacked in your favor. If you're just retail buying blindly because you want to get rich fast, you're going to get so wrecked. There are so many unlocks. We just have to deal with them as they come, whether they're going to pump the price or not. We're going to see.
Jito and Solana Ecosystem Update
Let's also check in on some of the stuff we discussed yesterday. You have the situation with Jito. Jito is still in the bull trend. Keep an eye on this one because it is one of the first Solana ecosystem coins breaking out into bullish territory. Let's see how it handles a Bitcoin dump if Bitcoin goes to $50K or $40K. Will Jito be able to hold the bull trend? Who the hell knows. Set a stop loss — always a stop loss, as we teach in the mechanical rules. Always a stop loss. But it is interesting to see that coins are waking up. There's something happening, some kind of pulse going on.
MicroStrategy STRETH Product Under Stress
Also, another thing — with STRETH. Holy crap, guys. Just like we've been saying, they will have such a hard time. STRETH is in a very bad spot. Michael Saylor will have to increase the dividend ASAP for this thing to survive. He will have to increase it ASAP, and it's a very tough spot to be in. I don't understand why he put himself in this spot.
In order for him to get STRETH back to $100, he needs to hike the dividend by at least 10% — meaning not 10 percentage units, but he needs to increase it from around 11% to maybe 12.5%. So a 10% increase, but not 10 percentage points. He should do this, otherwise it will keep falling, and he needs to restore the peg.
The reason he needs to restore the peg is that people put their pensions in STRETH. People put their retirements in STRETH, thinking it's like a bank account where you put your money and just get yield. Of course it's not like that. We've been saying it's not like that. And now that it's going down, it's very bad for people. You put your pension here, you're down 10% already. Yes, you get a bit of yield, but who the hell knows how long that's going to continue. He had one year of dividends, but then he spent some of that to buy back some other debt. I don't know why he put himself in this hard situation.
It's like when you renovate your house, you start painting the floor, and you paint yourself into a corner. You cannot escape. There's no good solution here. I don't know how this is going to resolve itself. In fact, it would be nice if it somehow blew up — and by blew up, I mean maybe he cancels it. Maybe he cancels this product. Maybe he figures something out. It's not going to be good for the ones holding STRETH, but MicroStrategy as a whole — Strategy — will survive. Maybe he finds a way to retire it. I don't know.
But if this is removed as a factor, it would be so bullish, because this is a bit of an overhang. It's a bit of a wet towel on this whole bull market. We have this thing which does not make sense really, but people are so excited. All of the treasury maxis on Twitter, they've been piling money into it. It's going to be very tough, guys. I hope they figure it out somehow, but the most bullish scenario would be that they somehow remove it, or it collapses, so it's not a factor. I don't like that the whole Bitcoin ecosystem is being held hostage by this unsustainable product.
The market is basically telling Saylor that his current yield of around 10% is too little. It's too little for the risk. He needs to hike it to at least 12% now. To recoup this loss of 10% in the stock price, he needs to offer more yield, because the market is saying it wants 12% yield. If you buy at $91 and you get 11% per year, that's your effective yield — but 11% is based on $100. Their yield is based on $100, as if it was $100. But now you can buy it cheaper. So for him to restore it back to $100, he will have to pay the yield which, if you buy at $91, is like 12-point-something. So let's see if he will do it. He needs to do it. But if he does it, the problem is now he has to pay all of the STRETH holders, and that's a lot. So no good way to put it, but hopefully he can figure something out.
FOMC Meeting and Kevin Warsh
Next, we will have the FOMC meeting today. The press conference is today — the first FOMC by Kevin Warsh. Will he be bullish, bearish, dovish, hawkish? Here is my take on it. He has a lot of dovish ammunition. The administration has given him quite a lot. They gave him the Iran ceasefire. They also gave him a low oil price. Now, it's not low historically, but it is low compared to just a few months ago.
If you remember, during March and April, we said that oil has to come into the $70s, maybe even into the $60s, for the Fed to be able to cut. And we are now in the $70s. So we've actually come to the point where it's quite cheap enough for the Fed to be able to move. It's basically the same level as it was in June 2025 and in 2024. So this oil price is quite okay. The Fed can work with this. No problem.
The bad thing would be if oil just retested the 200-week and then bumped higher. But I see oil price as very political. That's why Moving Averages and stuff like that matter less. The trends also matter less, because it's a political price. It's just one statement away from going up or down. They can put the oil price where they want. In this case, they want it down because the Fed needs to cut as soon as possible. They need to do it in a credible way. If they do it while the oil price is high, it's very bad — it's not credible. You will have the world's financial managers looking at it saying, "You're crazy. We're going to dump US Treasuries if you are so irresponsible."
When they cut the rate, it needs to be credible. The money managers, the capital allocators across the world, need to believe in the story. That's why they cannot do whatever they want. They need to ensure that the story makes sense.
The "Time in the Market" Myth in Crypto
Guys, look at this. This is a picture that is becoming very popular on social media. In 2021, five years ago, Bitcoin was $67K. Now it is $65K, even $65K. ETH was $1.9K, now it is $1.8K. Solana was $141 — well, it was even $241 back in 2021. Now it is $72. Which basically breaks the myth that time in the market beats timing the market.
We're not trying to time the market, but you have to rely on the trends. You have to know what trend you're in — either you're bullish or bearish. This old saying that time in the market beats timing the market is very bad. In crypto, it's very, very bad. Just ask Matt and all the other Hex holders who have been scammed by this saying. I mean, Hex or Pulse couldn't even exist without this idea that you just delay gratification. They delay so much they get fully scammed. And they have an explanation to themselves for why they got scammed. They say, "We need to wait a bit more. Maybe 10 more years." They've already waited five years. Maybe 10 more years. Maybe 20 years. There's always an explanation: "Yes, we're down now, but wait another five years, another 20 years, maybe until the 2050s." It's crazy. Time flies.
When you look at the best approach to crypto markets, it's not just buy and hodl and wait. Most coins don't survive. Even ETH is at the same price as it was in 2020. It's the same price, man. It's even lower. So you have to ride the trends. Ride it, ride it, ride it. Ride the trends. Very important.
Hyperliquid vs. Binance and CZ's Comments
Looking at ETF inflow, you have Bitwise coming out saying they have $15 million inflow into the Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF. Investors are excited about Hyperliquid. Love to see projects in crypto flourishing.
But there is one guy who does not like Hyperliquid. Please guess in the comment section who is the guy that does not like Hyperliquid. Who is trying to throw shade on Hyperliquid? There's one particular guy who is not happy, and it is CZ. He's trying to throw shade in a polite way, saying that he loves Hyperliquid, but then throws shade. Listen to this:
CZ (quoted): "I think the Hyperliquid invention is actually awesome. They occupy a niche that Binance Exchange cannot compete. They don't have KYC. They claim they're decentralized. Again, I'm not going to comment on another project. Since you raised it, the history of no-KYC crypto exchanges is filled with people getting in trouble for that. Should they be worried? I would never do what they do, given what I've experienced in my life. But I'm not a legal person. I cannot give other people advice. I assume they have good lawyers. They're making a lot of money. They're big boys. They can handle themselves."
Ivan on Tech: Holy crap, guys. It's like a backhand compliment. "I love you guys, I love you guys, I would never do what you do." Like, "Oh man, you look so beautiful, I wouldn't be as fat as you are, but you're so beautiful." That's the energy.
To be fair, he is doing Aster, which is basically the same thing as Hyperliquid but on BNB. So big shout out to CZ, big shout out to Jeff from Hyperliquid.
And CZ is correct in that it is going to be interesting to see — how can you have a no-KYC leverage exchange where you can trade anything with leverage, where you can be an insider? You can be, let's say, Trump's maid. You're cleaning, you hear about the Iran peace deal, you log in, connect wallet, go long, and no one knows. Yes, they say sometimes "oh, we found some insider," but they find 0.0-something. They say it's decentralized. How decentralized is Hyperliquid really? I mean, I can bet you it's not super decentralized.
But now with the Trump administration, the way they do business, they will have no problem. They are very business-oriented. They themselves are probably big users. If you look at people in government, they probably love Hyperliquid. Why would they go against it? They probably love it. Next administration, let's see what happens.
Binance MiCA Licensing Issues in the EU
A big problem that Binance has is that they may get booted from the EU. Apparently they have issues getting a MiCA license. People have been asking whether exchanges on Bullmania have MiCA licenses and will they be able to survive the EU's new regulation. I believe Bybit has had it for a long time. The others I believe have it as well, but Bybit for sure. Check out Bybit if you want to be fully licensed.
Now, the problem is that yes, they have a MiCA license, but if you are in the EU you cannot trade all of the perps. For that you have to go to Hyperliquid and hope they're decentralized enough not to be counted as an exchange.
Binance actually has issues — they are getting removed from the EU if they cannot get the MiCA license ASAP, and they seem to be struggling a lot.
Tokenized Stocks: Solana, Ondo, and the Industry Race
Here you have Kyle Samani saying everyone in the Solana ecosystem should get in touch with Armani Ferrante, who is the Backpack guy — one of the biggest wallets and also issuers of tokenized stocks nowadays. They have a lot of users lately due to SpaceX, because they issue the SpaceX-backed token. He's saying we need to integrate native tokenized equities ASAP. We all have to move together fast right now in the Solana ecosystem, especially with Binance being booted from the EU. Important note: you will be able to integrate with Backpack's on/off-ramp so users can bring their existing equities from other brokers without a taxable event.
Brian Armstrong is also saying that tokenized stocks are coming. Everyone now is all-in on tokenized stocks. That's where the retail plebe is at.
Ondo is another tokenized stocks provider. They say they have very low slippage, while other platforms have up to 26% price impact if you want to buy $100K worth of tokens. I wonder why they can't get proper market making here. It should be a matter of just getting market makers. Potentially there are some problems with regulation, because market making in TradFi is highly regulated while market making in crypto is not super regulated. So maybe they can't use their crypto market makers. But this issue — where you push the price up a lot when you buy a bunch of tokenized stocks — is a very known, fixable issue with market making, especially with very liquid assets that are just tokenized and trading in another venue. It's a very fixable issue. But anyway, some kind of problem with market making.
Cardano's Charles Hoskinson Moving to Discord
Guys, I need to comment on something that's happening with Charles Hoskinson. Every day he is speaking about how he's moving to Discord. Have you guys noticed that? Big shout out to Charles, but every day he has like a one-hour-long video about Discord. It's like proof of Discord. He has a whole video series — it's like a Netflix series with many parts, many seasons.
On June 13th, he started his video series. He discusses it as if he's solved a new blockchain or something. The importance of Discord. He explains why we have to go to Discord. The guy is taking it seriously. Then yesterday he did another one — 40 minutes more on Discord. Then another one — Part Three, Discord Part Three, "My Channel, Tightly Moderated."
Let's see what's happening. After all of the work with peer-reviewed papers, the only thing left is to make a peer-reviewed paper on this migration. He says conversations are highly structured, kind of like how the holacratic world structures them. There's a pre-convo, there's a convo, and then there's a post-convo. Guys, that's how we should have structured the Bullmania Discord. I will watch all of this and we're going to structure our Bullmania Discord with the pre-convo, the post-convo, the middle convo. It's amazing. The post-convo records and you have a broadcast concept. Pre-convo, post-convo, then we broadcast the conversation. Amazing. I love it.
But that was Part Three. For me to catch up, I also have to watch Part Two, which is one hour and 15 minutes. He's saying you can't create any common ground because people are dug in, so you've got to pick a winner in that situation. Something to correct that. So what do you do? You go and create loops, work your way through, and eventually they all go to green. We'll assign the code of conduct and agree to it. Yeah, we have that — we have a code of conduct in Bullmania. So that's good.
But man, I need to study all of this. I need to study how we're going to do our Discord. Anyway, big shout out to ADA. If you haven't watched, you have to watch a lot — there's Part Two, then the AMA, there's a lot of stuff to catch up on. But the conclusion: you are moving to Discord. No more X for you.
Elon's Net Worth and SpaceX Financial Engineering
Let's get back to SpaceX a bit. The moves Elon is making — going public, getting to a trillion-dollar valuation — he can lose one trillion dollars and still be the richest man in the world. Isn't that crazy? Think about it. He can lose $1 trillion and still be the richest man in the world. It's mind-blowing.
When you have a stock valued so high, you can go and do acquisitions in a big way. He acquired Cursor, a coding AI tool, and he paid for it with stock. Corporate finance — it's brilliant. You have a big fat valuation, and you can just print new stock to pay for acquisitions. As long as the market gives you a nice valuation and you release a low float — just 5% of the supply into the market — valuation is high, and then you can acquire anything.
As one guy put it: SpaceX just pulled off the greatest financial engineering feat of the century. Folded xAI into a rocket company, turning space logistics into an AI infrastructure story overnight. You always have to be part of the story narrative. Priced the IPO at $135, floated just 4% of the company, raised $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation. I love it. Great. The guy is making trillion-dollar moves.
When you look at his net worth, it's now bigger than the entire Bitcoin market cap. Hats off. It really expands your brain of what's possible in this world, in the world of money, in the world of corporate finance.
We are trading the trends, though. On the hourly, it turns bearish. If it turns bullish again, you can trade it. On the daily, there is no trend still. We probably need a few weeks to pass. And if you are a true value investor, just wait for a few weeks when the media dies down a bit on SpaceX. Then you're going to see the true price — the true supply and demand when everything comes down, there's no FOMO, there's no hype, everyone maybe forgets and moves to the next thing. That's when you're going to see the true price in SpaceX.
Christine Lagarde on Tokenized Finance
Guys, we speak sometimes about tokenizing finance — bringing stocks on-chain. We discussed Hyperliquid bringing stocks on-chain, Ondo bringing stocks on-chain, Solana bringing stocks on-chain, Coinbase bringing stocks on-chain. As an industry, we're trying to bring finance on-chain. Unfortunately, we have missed a critical, critical thing that is undermining the whole thing.
According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, tokenized finance will not scale until it can settle in central bank money. So, guys, everything you're doing here with Hyperliquid and everything — forget it. If it's not settling in digital euro, it's not going to go anywhere. I don't understand how we missed this critical point in our development of this industry. Big shout out to Christine Lagarde. Yeah, I mean, some people live in their own world. I don't know what the hell they're speaking about. But big shout out — maybe she's correct. Probably not.
Overall Market Overview
Before we go to Q&A, let's look at the overall market. Today we are red like a tomato. But we like it. For us, it's a discount. We're in the green zone, we're in the buy zone. If you are a trader who wants capital efficiency, don't buy here. Just wait for the bull flip. I speak a lot about it because some people deploy capital across markets. For them, not being in a bull trend — even if the price is cheap long-term — is still a bit of a waste of time. Instead, the bull trend happens like this — boom — and you have instant capital efficiency to the moon. That's what you want: capital efficiency. If you are a holder and accumulator, you want Bitcoin cheap. Here in the green zone, it's cheap.
Let's look at stocks. A bit of a mixed bag yesterday. Let's see how they open today. With FOMC, especially now with Kevin Warsh, we don't really know what he's going to say — bullish, bearish. Stocks are taking a bit of a chill pill. But at the same time, Nasdaq is going to open higher today. S&P is going to open higher today. Fantastic. MicroStrategy is going to open lower today. STRETH is actually going to open a bit higher today at $92, but still far below $100.
Altcoin Trend Scan
Venice — still bull trend, near new bull trend, looks quite good. ZCash — bull trend. Hyperliquid — massive bull trend. So this holy trinity — well, it's no longer a trinity, it started as a trinity, now it's more, hence "et al." If you are an educated academic plebe, you know "et al" — you write a research paper, you have the first name, maybe the second, then "et al," meaning "and others." So it's the holy trinity et al.
Looking at Solana ecosystem: only Jito is bullish. Jupiter — bear. Helium — bear. Render — bear. Pump.fun — bear. Solana itself — bear. Is Solana going to $30 still? Solana is still going to $30. Broke the support. Should it not go to $30, we're going to get the memo and turn very bullish here at $93. But first, it has to go to $93. Until then, we're bearish, and $30 is the main target.
AI/TAU — weak bull, said wait for the yellow line to be crossed before you get in. Venice — bull. Fetch — the intergalactic alliance or whatever they call themselves — very bad, very bearish. Nothing has changed there.
Energy: XLE, the energy ETF, now turning bearish and going lower. That's good for stocks and for rate cuts. GSG, the commodity index, is now bearish also. Good. Chevron — bear, bear, bear. ExxonMobil — bear, bear, bear. BP, British Petroleum — bear, bear, bear. Energy is bear.
Tech: Intel — up, bullish, fantastic. Since the mechanical rules flipped bullish back in August, almost 400%. Intuit — bear, still bearish, slaughtered and slaughtered. Be careful. Tesla — it's interesting that Tesla kind of holds up here with the SpaceX IPO, because many Elon funds — where do you put your money? It's a bit problematic with two coins, so to speak. Let's see if they unite the stock or what they're going to do. I'm actually surprised it's bullish that Tesla hasn't dumped, that Tesla fans don't just dump it for SpaceX. Potentially there are two different investor groups pumping both stocks. This is going to be an interesting dynamic — SpaceX versus Tesla. Which one is leading?
Adobe — very bad, very, very bad. Stay out of Adobe. Dropping, dropping, dropping. Microsoft — bullish, still close to the 200-week Moving Average. Good value here at the 200-week. Service Now — a bit weak bull. Don't touch it until it goes higher. Meta — kind of bull. Don't touch it until it proves itself. It needs to go at least above this level for us to be sure it's not just a lower high, lower high situation. Apple — way better chart. Cleaner chart. They don't do AI. They don't care about AI. Their AI is not even working in the EU. Still up, still good. No complication. Fantastic. Nvidia — still good, full trend. Google — bull trend. Amazon — actually a bit of a bear. They entered a bit of a bear. Be careful with Amazon. Palantir — bear trend, be careful. SoFi — bear trend, be careful. Oracle — bull. There you go.
Overall, if you look at stocks, the vast majority are still bullish. They are still leading the risk-on sector. In crypto, we still get the remains. There is some capital remaining. Maybe it goes into crypto at some point. Capital always rotates. You can argue that we have a bit of a mania now with the SpaceX stuff, with the excitement. We're not bearish on that — if SpaceX goes up and continues up, fantastic. We can be part of that.
For now, you look at Nasdaq, you look at S&P, there is no sign of bear. It's just higher and higher. In fact, Nasdaq again wants to go to all-time high.
Q&A Session
Ivan on Tech: Let's go to Q&A. Questions, answers, debates. Let's go, guys.
Yo, Harsh — there's a bit of drama. Matt versus Harsh. You guys should do a UFC fight. It's the only way to settle the debate. No matter how much you chat back and forth, only a UFC-type match will settle it.
Someone's asking: "Tulip mania — are we all going to buy rocks from Mars?" How is SpaceX not the tulip? I mean, it's not tulip because stocks can go to very high valuations. You can argue that it's overvalued, but we don't try to fully value a company like SpaceX based on fundamentals. It's not what we do, because it's very hard, and even if you're right, you may still get wrecked. Even if you value it correctly, you're still going to get wrecked. Look at everyone who's tried to value Tesla and said it's overvalued and shorted it — they lose billions of dollars. That happens all the time.
Things can also change. Today it seems overvalued. Maybe tomorrow not. The definition of overvalued changes all the time. You go back 20 years, something with the multiples of companies today would have been considered crazy. Now it's normal. The speed at which we expect things to happen accelerates. Things go up way faster. Maybe it's because information travels faster nowadays. When something is bullish, the whole world is bullish because it's a few tweets and everyone knows. Before, your grandma had to write a telegram. You open the telegram, you become bullish, you tell your friend in the bar on Friday — but now it's Monday, it takes five days to get to Friday. So the bullishness just traveled slower.
We have a way simpler system — looking at the trend. On the hourly time frame, you now have a trend in SpaceX, and it is currently bearish. It's not confirmed bear yet — we need three more hours to confirm — but if it doesn't pump back above $212, it would be a bearish trend. So we're following this. Should it be bullish, we're bullish. I don't want to bet against Elon when he has a bull trend.
The things he's done with all his companies — with Tesla, not only stock price, but product-wise. People said Tesla was going to die many years ago. It's one of the most popular car brands. Never dies. The same with Starlink and everything. There is hype, but the reality does catch up eventually. Yes, he says things which don't exist yet. He said we would have self-driving like 10 years ago. He said it would happen by end of year. It took 10 years. Tesla holders love Elon so much they're okay with waiting. He said it was going to be 2017. Now it's like 2027 soon, and it is kind of self-driving. From what I understand, in California it's kind of self-driving. It does happen. It takes time, a lot of time, but it does happen.
The same with SpaceX. Yes, maybe overvalued, but will we see a correction or will we see the reality catch up? I don't know. I don't try to guess. But if it's bear trend, bear trend is bear trend. I choose to live life on easy mode. My whole wealth in markets has been made based on easy mode — meaning the trends. Not trying to understand valuation, not trying to understand revenue multiples. You don't need that. In fact, you get wrecked trying to look at that too much, because what you think is fair valuation may not be at all what everyone else thinks.
Ivan, why do you always say Solana is going to $30? It's going to $30 if it doesn't go up to $93 first — which is like 60% from here. But not any other coin that much. Why attacking Solana?
Harsh, you should actually take it a bit as a compliment. If you love Solana, you should take it as a compliment, because I love Solana and there is just no other coin I would be excited to buy when it's down so much. If Polkadot drops another 60%, I'm not going to buy it. I don't see any future for Polkadot. I may be proven wrong. But the way I'm looking at it, I don't see too much future in most altcoins. With Solana, I actually see a lot of future. So if it goes to $30, it would just be such an opportunity, such a crazy opportunity.
If you've been listening to my channel, if you are honest with yourself — we've been fully correct. We've been 100% correct. We are brutal. We don't sugarcoat. We said here in Q4 it's going to go down a lot. It has gone down a lot. And guess what? It's going to go down further because we're in a bear trend. It just broke down support. You see the chart yourself. But if it goes to $30, I would buy even if it's a freaking bear trend. If it goes to $30 and it continues to go down to $20, I would still be happy I bought at $30.
See it more as a compliment. Because everything else — okay, let's look at DOT. If DOT goes to another all-time low, like $0.50, I don't know, probably not before it goes to bull trend. I'm only a buyer in bull trend for that other stuff. For Solana, because I love Solana in a special way, I would actually be buying at $30. Now, this whole $30 thing is cancelled in case we go to bull trend. Solana does not go to bull trend yet. It hasn't. So take it easy. Don't get upset.
Harsh, you have to be upfront here. I told you to buy the car when we went to $200. You remember? I told you very clearly: buy car. You said, "I want to buy car." I told you, listen, it's $200, now you buy car. Now the car is far away. If you didn't buy car here, it's down a lot. And guess what — the way it looks now, it may be lower. I don't want to sugarcoat it. But you can be with car, you can be without car, you can take the bus. There are different ways to survive. Just see it as a teachable moment.
I lost almost eight figures in the past. So I don't want to feel too sorry. It's just part of the game. It's like you see your kid stumble. It happens. Get up, go, go. All good. How long are we going to cry here? It happens, man. It happens. Go to new highs, go to the upside, learn mechanical rules. That's it.
But listen — if you stay for another bull cycle, you will likely get some kind of car. Maybe even a car park. The bull cycle never disappoints.
Can you show us SPX? Look at Matt, by the way — you and Matt had a bit of a fight in the chat right now, but you and Matt are actually not that different. Matt is mega wrecked in Pulse and Hex. He's down so much. I don't know how much you're down in Solana, Harsh, since the bear flip, but I can almost guarantee you that Matt is down even more. You guys are very similar. And look at how positive Matt is here every day — positivity, happy, no crying. In fact, he's buying more. I don't know why he's doing that. Now he's saying "I'm not okay." So you guys should actually maybe get together, be friends, because you are in the same spot.
Can you please show us SPX 69? Okay, let's share this. There is something happening here. On the weekly, we still have a bid to pump to bull trend. There's something happening. Keep an eye — this could flip soon. Obviously, with Bitcoin going down to $40K or $50K, who the hell knows. But the way it looks right now, it wants to do something. The first step is to just break this — there's a high, a lower high, a lower high. Maybe it will break it now. That would be quite bullish. On SPX on the weekly, we need to pump a bit more. Let's check the daily. On the daily, it is now going bullish. With the daily, you may have a fake out — like here we had a bit of a fake. It happens. It's part of the game. You have backtesting still being good from a backtesting perspective, even including the fake outs. You still have good backtesting for the trends.
The daily is the first signal. The reason you have to be a bit careful is because sometimes it's a fake out. With the weekly, it's more of a sure thing. But if you want to be faster, in five days you have a confirmed daily trend, which hopefully does not confirm back into bear like it was here. But in this case, it is slightly different because we did go above the 200-day Moving Average — this white line here — and we just got rejected by it. So yeah, maybe things are turning up, maybe turning to the upside. Maybe Murad is going to be redeemed. Doesn't look too bad, but still bear. I would wait for the weekly to be bull, and then you have a nice potential return here.
Harsh is saying Matt is a great human being. There you go.
Emanuel saying: "I've been in crypto since 2020, lost my money on 2x and on the 3x, never cried, almost wrecked, but still waiting for the bull trend. Just more gray hair." Yeah, I mean, that's the thing. With crypto, if you don't follow the trend, time passes. It's the serious part — you can have five years pass and you're still holding things that were promised in 2018. It's 10 years. Life passes by, man. I started doing content in my early 20s. I'm soon in my early 30s. We're boomers. Carl the Moon said, "Wasted my best years for this shit." Yeah, time flies. We need longevity, guys. Where's the longevity research? I hope we're going to be saved by longevity. I want to be part of more cycles. We need health industry breakthroughs. Time is ticking, man. Very fast. 10 years since 2017. You remember 2017? It's 10 years ago. Crazy.