Ivan on Tech gives a Bitcoin market update and discusses AI earnings season
Solo presenter Ivan gives a live stream update on Bitcoin's price action, AI earnings reports, and altcoin trends.
Summary
Ivan (Ivan on Tech) opens with a bullish Bitcoin update, noting that BTC is bouncing off the previous May high support level and that positive AI earnings — particularly from SpaceX and Super Micro — are providing tailwinds for the broader crypto market. He argues that in a bull market, even small positive news is enough to drive prices higher. He then covers the broader earnings calendar, including Meta and Tesla reporting later that day, and plays a clip of Elon Musk projecting SpaceX annual recurring revenue of $500 billion to $1 trillion by end of 2027. Ivan also discusses rising government bond yields internationally and plays a clip arguing that central banks will ultimately be forced to expand the money supply, which he sees as bullish for Bitcoin and scarce assets. The stream closes with an extended Q&A covering altcoin trends, DeFi liquidity pools, Solana price targets, the Richard Heart/Interpol situation, and a digression into health, diet, and AI robotics.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Price Action and the May High Support Level
Ivan: Bitcoin is bouncing very nicely off the support we've been speaking about for the past two weeks or so, which is the previous May high. Some days we've been below it, some days we've been above it. People get very worried as soon as we go a bit below it. But now that we have confirmation from the stock market that the AI buildout seems to be profitable so far, the bulls are back — with a vengeance.
The number one concern currently in financial markets is AI. Are we in a big fat bubble, or is this a fantastic and profitable endeavor? We do have a bit of an answer, at least when you look at SpaceX. SpaceX came out yesterday with a very strong report showing that the AI buildout, at least for them, is profitable. You also have Super Micro, another company crushing its preliminary numbers on the back of the same surge. Netflix offered a software counterpoint with a weak guide, but you cannot compare SpaceX and Netflix in terms of AI. The AI signal is mainly SpaceX and Super Micro, and both were very, very good yesterday.
Meta, Tesla, and the AI Monetization Question
Also today, you will have Meta reporting. Meta is going to be a very important company for AI earnings. Why? Because they have Meta AI — their AI assistant — which should be monetizable in the near future. If Meta AI for Facebook is monetizable, that's very, very good, because a lot of infrastructure companies have been profitable in AI for a long time. But the question is: can the end-user companies — Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic — become profitable? When you look at Anthropic, it's a very long path to profitability, extremely long. But if Facebook can show that their product is already generating revenue and that revenue is growing, that is a good signal.
So all in all, Bitcoin is currently pumping to the upside just from the news that SpaceX and what they're doing in AI is profitable — and that's not even that massive a piece of news. But in a bull market, you don't need massive news. In a bull market, even small news — like SpaceX being profitable when it comes to AI — is already good. It's already very, very good.
In a bull market, be bullish. We're bullish in a bull market. We've had a year of bear. We've been through the bear market. Now it's time to be bullish, because again, the smallest bullish news is going to pump us to the upside. In a bear market, this kind of news about SpaceX and AI wouldn't affect crypto at all — it wouldn't affect whether we pump or dump. But now that we're in a bull market, the smallest thing that can turn bullish is turning bullish in a very real way.
The $87K Line in the Sand for Altcoins
Bitcoin is continuing to the upside — that's very nice. Let's see if we can take out this high right here, around $87–$86K. Why is this high so important? It is the line in the sand for the continuation of altcoins. Should Bitcoin go above $87K, in my mind, altcoins are going to go parabolic. Because altcoins right now have a bit of worry. They're concerned that if Bitcoin goes below the May high and drops to $79K or $78K, it's not going to be good for altcoins — they're likely to take another minus 20% to minus 40% in many cases. So altcoins are just waiting to see whether Bitcoin can pump back above here and go higher than $87K.
We have a lot to discuss right now, but it's good that the market is bullish. The bull market is continuing. It's crazy how much concern and worry we've had during the last ten days or so. Bitcoin hasn't done too much. Altcoins have dipped a bit, but all in all, the structure is intact. The structure is bullish. If you look at any video we did basically since August — bullish, bullish, bullish — even since below the 200 Moving Average, that's where our first bullish signals started to light up and where our accumulation started. So by watching the daily streams here on Ivan on Tech, I hope you've had a nice strong signal and strong hands holding you in a very nice direction.
At the end of the day, decisions are your own. But I look at people watching five different YouTube channels — they all tell you different things, and even within the same channel they often change. Today bullish, yesterday bearish, bullish, bearish. We have the same story, and if the story changes, it changes and we'll have a different story for a long time. Just like we were bullish until October 2025, then bearish from October 2025 until this summer. Very, very consistent.
Nothing here is financial advice. Even though this content is top, top, top — in trading and crypto, you could lose all your money, 100%. You could lose everything. It can go to zero. So use your own brain. Don't blindly copy anyone online.
ETF Inflows and the Earnings Calendar
We have good ETF inflows in Bitcoin — $23 million yesterday, and a monster number two days ago on Monday that sustained into yesterday as well. Looking at this week, we will have more companies reporting, and this is key: can we have more signals that AI is sustainable, that there is no bubble? At least for now, there is no bubble. Fantastic.
Later today we're going to have Meta, Tesla, and IBM. Next week is going to be even more big tech. Whenever there are earnings, it's actually bullish. Then earnings happen, a few weeks pass, people get concerned again — it's a bubble again, everyone is super worried. Then earnings happen and everyone is fantastically calm again. Then in ten days, everyone is concerned again. It's an interesting pattern: the earnings seem to keep justifying the AI buildout.
SpaceX Revenue and Elon Musk's Projections
Coming back to SpaceX — SpaceX highlights: revenue of $14.6 billion, up 161% year-over-year. And when you look at SpaceX, you remember our signal was when it turned bullish on the four-hour chart. The daily also had the cleanest signal right there.
Let me play you what Elon has been saying. Hopefully the sound is okay.
Elon Musk: "In a nutshell, what this implies for SpaceX annual recurring revenue by the end of '27 is somewhere between $500 billion and a trillion."
Elon is mega bullish on the whole AI space, and the AI part is the biggest growing sector of SpaceX right now — the biggest revenue driver. Yes, they have good revenue from Starlink and other things, but the biggest and fastest growing part of the business is AI. They added $6.7 billion of incremental AI infrastructure revenue.
For crypto, this is very good. The fact that AI can continue without collapsing is very, very good in general. This is the big focus for this week: whether Meta can begin to monetize their AI assistant on top of the ad engine — we'll know that later today. Whether SpaceX can show Starlink's cash funding a business that is starting to pay for itself — we can say yes, that already happened yesterday. Whether Tesla can move autonomy from optionality to a fleet — we'll know that later today as well.
At some point, I'm sure people will create an AI bubble. For now, though, it seems the bull trend is continuing. NASDAQ wants to open higher today. S&P wants to open higher today. Bull trends are sustained. Bitcoin's bull trend is in the early phase. Altcoin bull trends — if they are bullish and haven't flipped back bearish — we're bullish on them. Some have flipped back bearish, so we are more risk-off on those.
Altcoin Trends: What's Bullish, What's Not
For example, Lido — this already happened a few weeks ago. It fell out of the bull trend. When something falls out of the bull trend, we move to bullish assets instead. TIA, by the way — TIA continues in a very nice bull trend. This is what we want to see: bull trend and then continuation. We don't want to see it fall back bearish. If it falls back bearish, we move to somewhere that is bullish.
Zcash also turned bearish. In this situation, what do we do? We don't beg for it to come back. Maybe it's going to come back — likely it will — but at the same time, you have Monero, which is still bullish. My preference is to always be in bull trends. Yes, it could happen that an asset goes bearish and then instantly pumps again. It's possible. But we're not here to guess. We're here to ensure that capital grows with limited downside. My preference is to be in bullish assets.
Switzerland approved its first ever Bitcoin spot ETF for retail — interesting that they didn't have it before, now they do. Good. JP Morgan Asset Management's base case projects Bitcoin to outperform US stocks, bonds, and gold over the next decade. That's likely going to happen, especially after a big bear market like we've had.
Rising Bond Yields and the Money Printer Thesis
Now let's talk about yields and how the yield is increasing on government bonds, and why at the end of the day it's going to lead to the money printer going, money supply going up, and Bitcoin pumping nicely. Let me play this clip.
Analyst: "When the long end of the yield curve — or when the entire yield curve — is moving up, over the last 12 months everything's moved up, say, 100 basis points or so. That's bearish in the near term.
But over the mid-term and the long term, it's very bullish, because what will happen is the financial regulators, the Treasury, the Fed — they're going to come into the market and they're going to start to buy. They're going to lower the front end of the yield curve. They're going to have to buy to keep the far end of the yield curve from blowing out. They're going to expand the money supply. That's what we've always done and that's what we will do in this case. There's no way that the powers that be are going to allow the 30-year rate to go to 10%.
So when the bid disappears on the far end of the yield curve, you'll actually see the money supply expand. And the big beneficiary of the money supply expanding is normally scarce, desirable assets. Gold will benefit. The S&P index and risk assets will benefit. Bitcoin will benefit — scarce, right? And when people start to see the money supply expanding, I think you'll see a major rally in something that nobody can print anymore of. And that's Bitcoin."
Fantastic. Bitcoin is of course the solution. If you look at the yields, they have been going up a lot — not only in the US, but internationally. Look at France. France has very high yields. France is not doing well as a country right now, as a financial entity — looking very bad. That will lead to the money printer. They will have to get yields down. Otherwise it's too expensive for the government to fund itself. That will lead to money supply going up.
Altcoin Chart Roundup
Looking at Solana — bull trend continues. We're bullish. $106, very good. ETH — bull trend continues. We're bullish. $2.4K. Let's see if they can run back to $4.7K. BNB — bull trend, very nice above support. It is facing resistance in this area where it got stopped for now. Should we break it, you have basically 100% up until the next big cluster of resistance.
Radium — nice recovery. This is the kind of stuff you want: assets in a bull trend. There is a bit of resistance here — we ran into it before and we're going to be testing it again. Should we break above it, you're going to have a nice rally to the next area, which is over 100% up. Very, very nice.
Hyperliquid — bullish, bullish, bullish. As long as it stays bullish, fantastic. It keeps a bull trend even though there has been volatility.
ADA — ADA became bullish, then broke down. If the stop loss is hit, just wait until it goes above the line again, because it needs to prove that it wants to go up and isn't going to derp around here for a long time.
Solana's Alpenglow Upgrade
Today, Alpenglow goes live on Solana. This new consensus mechanism is going live today. The new consensus is going to bring finality down to 150 milliseconds — this should be a massive thing for everyone doing DeFi or any kind of trading on Solana. Within 150 milliseconds, your trade is fully finalized. Before, it took 12 seconds. So before, theoretically, within 12 seconds your transaction could still be rolled back. In the wallet you don't really see it because the wallet shows you confirmed, but in rare scenarios it was still theoretically possible that within 12 seconds whatever you did on-chain could be rolled back.
Now it's going from 12 seconds to 150 milliseconds. That's a big deal — a massive deal for anyone doing any kind of big transaction, especially with arbitrage. For arbitrage, this is massive. You act on an arbitrage opportunity, you need to be fast. You see the opportunity, you act on it. As soon as you act on arbitrage, you reveal the opportunity to everyone, because blockchains are public. When you act on something, you show the opportunity to everyone, and then your transaction could be rolled back and now everyone can try to do what you just tried doing instead of you, and front-run you. It's very bad. So this upgrade is a very big deal.
Q&A: DeFi Liquidity Pools
Question from chat: What's your opinion on investing in DeFi liquidity pools?
Ivan: I'm not doing that. Number one, the return is variable — whatever the return is currently, it may change, so you have to constantly monitor it. Number two, risks: you have impermanent loss and all kinds of other stuff. I would rather trade. It's just not for me.
It could be interesting with new coins when you can get a lot of volume through a newly created liquidity pool and there's not too much competition. But in most cases, the coins themselves also have the liquidity pool. Personally, I don't really do liquidity pool stuff. In some cases, if you do it on some weird DEX that isn't Uniswap or one of the big DEXes, you could theoretically also get hacked.
If you're serious about being an LP provider, it's a whole business — there are businesses just doing that. But for an average person putting some money here and there, it's not worth it. It's a highly complex thing: how to provide liquidity properly, how to not get wrecked with impermanent loss, and so on. I keep to investing and trading.
Another problem is the opportunity cost, because you commit capital. You need to look at your opportunity cost — it's not just how much you make, it's how much you lose by being in a liquidity pool and not being somewhere else.
Q&A: Solana and Hyperliquid Price Targets
Question from chat: How high do you think Hyperliquid will go?
Ivan: Our strategy is not to predict how high, but to just be in bull trends. For Solana, if you are to speculate, the number one target is of course going above the previous highs from 2025. Should we start closing above $250–$260, then the path to $500 opens up. I think it's possible for Solana to go to $500. Solana is a totally different asset now than it was last cycle. And at the end of the bull market, you may have a blowoff top to $1,000 also. No one knows.
Don't worry too much about the big number. What if it goes bearish before that and you're so focused on that big number? Don't be focused on the big number. Is it possible to go to the all-time high on Solana? Yes — the actual all-time high is around $300, but the weekly close is around $250. I think that's super possible and probably within the coming months. And then just follow the bullish hand. As long as it's bullish, in a blowoff top scenario things can go very fast — things can double within a few days. If we see a 2017-style blowoff top, be open-minded to anything and ride the trend until it ends. You can still take profits along the way. Let's say we go to $250 — you could take very nice profits from Solana and keep a portion riding, because you don't know where it stops.
For Hyperliquid specifically — Hype is chasing all-time highs every few months. The recent all-time high is around $100. It would be price discovery from there, so it's very hard to say. But here's one way to think about it: Hype is now at a $20 billion market cap. Cardano at its highest cycle went to around $100 billion. If Hype is to do what Cardano did in 2021, it needs to do a 5x — that would be around $400. And no one was using Cardano. Hype has all the users. Cardano had zero users — it still has zero users. So if Hype goes where Cardano was in 2021, with all of Hype's actual users, that's $400. You understand?
Even Solana now is lower than Cardano was at the peak when Cardano had no users. But this is also the power of having no users — you're a pre-revenue gem, a pre-mass-adoption gem. There is a lot of benefit to not having users yet, because people can dream about how big you're going to be.
Q&A: Lido, Zcash, and Staying in Bull Trends
Question from chat: Lido fell off a cliff.
Ivan: I told you. If you were in Bulmania, we told you to go to Hyperliquid. And at the beginning of this stream, we discussed Lido as an example of where you don't want to be in a bear trend. It's a very good track record here — it went bearish and then continued lower. Maybe it will recover. At the same time, there's no need to ride that. As soon as something goes bearish — like Lido — you could just move to Hyperliquid, which is bullish. The same thing is now happening with Zcash. Zcash went bearish. Maybe it goes up again — who knows, we don't know — but we're not here to pray either. Zcash is bearish, so we just switch to Monero, because that one is still bullish. That's how I play it.
If something is bearish, I'm not here to gamble on it. Maybe it goes up again. Maybe Zcash just wants to revisit a prior support level — it may very well happen that we go back and get support there. That would be like a 60% dump just to get supported there, and it would still be overall quite a good chart on a very long time frame. But on the weekly time frame, there's no need to ride it down. In the bull market, we don't take chances. Things should be bullish in a bull market. If something is bearish, get out of there.
Q&A: Richard Heart, Interpol, and the Simplest Explanation
Question from chat: What about Carl the Moon — is he going to end up like James Balina? And what about Richard Heart?
Ivan: Why would Carl end up like Richard Heart? Carl doesn't have a big tax situation or any tax debt in Finland.
By the way, I saw an interesting theory — I don't think it's true — but someone wrote that Richard Heart arrested himself in order to remove the Hexicans from his life. Like, imagine a fake arrest, and then he can go live his life and the Hexicans are gone. I don't think it's true because Finland is looking for him. He has a red notice on Interpol. So if he exposes his location, he's for real wanted — for real wanted by Finland on an international level. He has an Interpol red notice. That's why I think it's unlikely.
But there are conspiracies. You remember QuadrigaCX — the guy passed away in India and people sometimes ask whether he really passed away. Normally, the simplest explanation is the correct one. In life in general, the simplest explanation is the correct one. And the simplest explanation for Richard Heart is that he thought Turkey was neutral — it's not in the EU, it's a bit outside the West — and he settled down there and it worked for him for two or three years. It turns out the world is international. You cannot really hide. You cannot be Jason Bourne in today's world. They found him. That's it. And with an Interpol red notice, it's very hard to travel.
This is actually the same principle Vitalik applied when Craig Wright claimed to be Satoshi. Let me find that clip.
Vitalik Buterin: "I'll explain why I think he's probably not Satoshi. It's very, very simple signaling theory. He had the opportunity to take two different paths of proving who he is. One path would have been to make a signature from the first Bitcoin block, put the signature out in public, make a very simple ten-line blog post that anyone — including cryptographers like Dan Boneh and Ben Kaminsky and so forth — can verify, and just post that out there and let the cryptographic community do it. Instead, he took this path where he wrote this big long blog post with 200 lines, so confusing that even Dan Kaminsky said it was too confusing, and tried to only show that signature to a few select people and we're supposed to trust them. In general, signaling theory says: if you have a good way of proving something and a noisy way of proving something, and you choose the noisy way, then chances are it's because you couldn't do the good way in the first place."
I applied this in my life since then. The simplest explanation is probably the correct one. Craig — why don't you prove you're Satoshi? Just sign a message with the key. No — you've got to do this complex thing. And it turned out he's not Satoshi, proven in court. So yeah.
Q&A: Physical AI, Robots, and the Future of Labor
Question from chat: Eric Guzman says having a normal daily job with a salary is not going to cut it anymore.
Ivan: 100%, 100%, 100%. You need to become more of a money manager. It's so important. Number one is to just get initial capital. If you have initial capital, start investing in crypto. Physical AI is going to happen — it's the next thing. Once you have robots, I would rather have a robot than a person doing renovation, for example. We discussed this a few months ago. Today, if you want to renovate a house, dealing with people to do it is very painful. You need to manage them, they don't follow the design, they build it ugly, they're sloppy. Imagine ten Optimus robots — they come, they do it exactly like the interior design drawing, exact to the nanometer. It's going to happen. It's a question of time.
All the white-collar jobs are going to be affected first, but blue-collar is going to be affected also, because the service is going to be better when AI Optimus is doing the renovation. The humanoid form factor is probably not just for design — the world is built for humans, so if it looks like a human, it can use the same interface: open a door, use a table, use a chair, go do stuff in the kitchen, go repair a sink. All of that is designed for a human to have access to. So the humanoid form factor makes sense.
At the end of the day, the number one thing now is to have assets. That's why I'm so passionate about what we do here. We talk about the markets. All assets are trading on the market. You've got to be on the market. You need to understand market, speculation, ownership, and charting. Very important.
Q&A: Health, Diet, and the Cookie Hole
Question from chat: Ivan, when's the big diet?
Ivan: If you're interested, maybe we even do a course — maybe even a retreat — on how to lose fat as someone who sits at a desk almost every day. I have a bit of a journey here with fat loss. I had a big fat storage. Now I'm moving closer and closer to my goal of 15% body fat. I still have a few percent to go, but if you are a guy, try to get to 15%. It's kind of the sweet spot. When you go below 15%, the quality of life is different — you need to be more of a professional at it, hormones and all kinds of stuff can change. At 15%, you don't have to do anything crazy. You need discipline, but it's not some extreme thing.
Now, if you are very overweight, it's going to feel a bit crazy because you need to adjust your thinking. You need to remove the fat mindset from your brain. Losing weight is simple but not easy. It's simple because it's calories in, calories out. That's it. It's very simple but not easy because the fat mindset tells you different stuff. It may tell you: "Hey, you deserved a nice snack." Or: "Hey, you worked so hard, grab a pizza." Or: "Oh, you're going to lose muscle if you don't eat — eat this cheesecake."
The number one thing for me with weight loss has been just to not eat. You need to eat less. Don't put a cookie in the cookie hole. You have a face, and in your face there's a cookie hole — you don't want to be throwing cake in there. And when you're focused on something, when you work, there's no cake going into the cookie hole. So it's good when you have some kind of career or business that keeps you busy.
Why are crypto influencers turning into health influencers? I think it's vice versa. When you make money, you understand you can buy stuff, but at the end of the day — when you're a poor pleb, the only thing you need to fix is becoming rich in one way or another. Whether it's crypto, whether it's business, you need to figure out a way. Being healthy is important, but for me at least, it was finances first. I spent my twenties just focusing on crypto and investing. Then you understand: finances are good, but once you get above 30, you understand we are not unlimited here. To prolong life and enjoy the fruits of your labor, you better get fit.
I know MM Crypto has been focused on health for years and years. For me, it was mainly this year that I took it seriously. And I even saw CZ — CZ is also now flexing health. It's a very healthy trend. Just ten or twenty years ago, people would see luxury clothes as a status symbol. But now you need health. Everyone can rent luxury stuff — it's not proof of anything. I love how this health focus is becoming what people want to achieve. It's very, very good.
The interesting philosophical question is: what should you focus on first — money or health? Some people say you can do both, you can have work-life balance. For me in the early stages, I'm not sure I could have done both. The way my brain works, I can have one mega focus at a time. And that's when I achieve the most. Maybe it's still possible to do both — I don't know. But ultimately you want to do both. And what's interesting is that when you have a profession you love — for me it's crypto — it's actually easier to lose weight, because when you're busy, you don't eat. When you're focused on something, there's no cake going into the cookie hole. So having a career or business that keeps you busy is actually a weight loss tool in itself.