Bitcoin analyst Ivan on Tech argues the current rally was predictable and explains why it's just beginning
Ivan on Tech delivers a solo market update as Bitcoin approaches $86,000, arguing that disciplined mechanical trading rules — not emotion — are what separate profitable traders from those who repeatedly lose money in crypto cycles.
Summary
Ivan on Tech presents a bullish market update as Bitcoin pushes toward $86,000 in what he describes as a textbook bull market move. He argues that most retail traders lose money not because markets are unpredictable, but because they lack a consistent, rules-based strategy — causing them to FOMO in at peaks and panic at bottoms. He covers several specific topics: the US Treasury's $6 billion debt buyback, which he characterises as de facto quantitative easing accelerating dollar debasement; a $3.8 million hack of NEAR Protocol's intent services, which he downplays based on price action and the small dollar amount; and a review of multiple altcoins including Solana, Cardano, Sui, Chainlink, Tron, and Quant. He also revisits a clip from August 31st in which he called the Solana bull flip, presenting it as validation of his mechanical Moving Averages-based approach.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Approaches $86,000 — The Bull Trend Plays Out as Called
Ivan on Tech: Oh yes, oh yes. Welcome to another episode. Right now, Bitcoin is pumping. Bitcoin is going higher and higher and higher. Bitcoin is now almost at $86,000.
Please, for a second, look back at the emotions. Look back at what has happened during the last 20, 24, 48 hours. People were freaking out. People were saying that this is a fake pump. People were saying it's another Bart. But on this channel, we've been very clear. We've been very consistent. We've been extremely disciplined with our strategy, where we are bullish in a bull trend. Who would have guessed — be bullish in a bull market? But most people are not bullish in a bull market. Most people are very concerned. They have PTSD. Why? Because they have no strategy, no rules, no discipline.
When you don't have discipline, of course everything is scary for you, because the only time you really become excited is around the peak. So you FOMO in there, it goes down. You become cautious right at the bottom, right before the next Valhalla. You're cautious, cautious, cautious. Then you FOMO in at the next peak — when you're finally convinced the bull market is here, but that moment is the bear market. This is the cycle of the pleb. This is the cycle of the broke. Each and every cycle, somehow they lose money. I don't know how it's even possible to lose money in crypto when there are such crazy returns in the bull, and then you have a clear bear in most cases.
If you follow Bulmania, if you follow mechanical rules, it is actually very simple — and especially this cycle. I've got to say, it is textbook. Textbook, textbook, textbook. It went bear here in Q4. It went to the 200-week Moving Average here during the summer. We said 200 Moving Average — time to be bull, bull, bull, bull like there's no tomorrow. Time to be bullish. And now that we got the bull flip here at the beginning of September, we said it's time to be mega bull. It's time to be unreasonably bullish. It's time to not see the bearishness, not see the bad things — see the good things, see the possibilities. Because always, each and every day, there are going to be some bad things and some good things. In the bear market, you want to see the bad things. You don't want to see the good things. And in the bull market, you want to see the good things. Very, very important.
Altcoin Season Is Beginning — Top Coins All Flipping Bullish
So October is here, and it is coming in waves. If we look at the top coins: Solana — bull trend. ETH — bull trend. Avalanche — bull trend. Bitcoin — obviously bull trend. XRP — bull trend. Hyperliquid just keeps going and going and going, up 133% since the bull flip. Zcash keeps going up, 61% since the bull flip. This is where you have the fantastic returns starting, and some people even call this a type of alt season.
At the end of the day, we don't worry too much about the labels. We worry about where the profit is. And now the most important profit is with altcoins going bullish. When altcoins go bullish, you jump in. When altcoins go bullish, you ensure you allocate — especially big altcoins in the top 10, top 100. It is the best risk-reward at this moment. The best risk-reward right now is being bullish on Bitcoin and bullish on altcoins in the top 50, top 100, because they're just now all literally flipping bullish after a year of being down 80–90%. And some of them have had good narratives even before the bear market. Sui is one of them. You remember the banana zone? We joke a lot about that. But it's the same banana zone, the same global M2 — whatever was shilled at the top. But now you get it 80% cheaper. Very important.
NEAR Protocol Hack — $3.8 Million Stolen, Hacker Potentially Identified
Also, some news about NEAR. NEAR has had a hack. Some people are concerned about what's going to happen with NEAR. But the market does not really care, and we mainly look at the price. NEAR did have a hack yesterday — you can check it on Twitter. But the price doesn't really care. The market doesn't price it as a big thing, and we agree with the market.
This is an example where, if you don't have a system, if you don't have any tool, you may start drawing conclusions from your own understanding of the situation. And to be fair, you don't understand the situation. Most players don't understand the situation. I mean, even I don't understand the situation fully. If you have a hack on NEAR — how bad is it? You need to see what's happening with the chart, because the chart is the result of big money repositioning, the result of insiders repositioning. The chart is basically the signal. If this hack were very bad, I can assure you all the insiders would be running for the door. But they're not currently running. So we're calm, we're collected, we're quite relaxed about this NEAR situation.
Earlier today, NEAR intent services were stopped after a security incident was detected. A bunch of money was stolen — $3.8 million, which is by the way not too much. $3.8 million. I mean, even the founder could probably cough it up from his back pocket if he wanted. The funds will be compensated in full. They said the contract-side vulnerability has been patched. So everything is back to normal.
Illia, the founder, said: earlier today NEAR Intents was exploited for $3.8 million. The AI security layer on Intents detected outlier behaviour and intents were temporarily paused. All affected users will be compensated in full. NEAR Intents now processes over $4 billion a month in trading and payments, and there is big success.
Now the interesting thing is it seems they have found the hacker — potentially. One of the NEAR team members said: "We have identified you, sir. Please return the funds to the following address. You know better than most how responsible disclosure works. This is the last window to use it. After 48 hours, that window closes."
So let's see. Could they have really identified him? I think the NEAR guys should have some kind of proof. Maybe they can post a blurred KYC picture of him. They need to prove that they actually have identified him — otherwise, how does he know that they've identified him? But the message is clear: if you return the funds within 48 hours, you're not in legal trouble, because you can say that you are a white hat and you just protected the funds by hacking it before the real bad hacker could. So if you are the hacker, you take the money, you return it within 48 hours, and you can say, "I just protected the funds. I saw a bug. I exploited it before the bad guys could." The NEAR team is saying: we have identified you, return the funds, and you can frame it as protecting us.
I don't know, guys. I think they should have more proof. Maybe post a blurred KYC picture if they really have identified him. Let's see what's going to happen. But chart-wise, NEAR is doing very, very well — bullish. A bit of down, but it's okay. Don't worry, guys. Be happy.
US Treasury Debt Buyback — De Facto QE Accelerating Dollar Debasement
Moving on, switching gears. Why are we pumping? Because there is QE. Can you say in the comment section "there is QE" so I know you've understood it? There is big, fat, massive QE happening right now as we're speaking. They're not calling it QE. But there is massive QE right now.
Look here. The US Treasury is buying back $6 billion of its own debt. Why? Because there is no demand for US debt. If you look at the US rates — bond rates — you see that they are very high. The 30-year is just going higher and higher and higher. When the rate is high, it means that bonds are not being bought. If the bond is not getting bought, the US has to offer a higher interest rate to get it sold. And if existing bonds circulating on the market get sold off, the price of them goes down, and the yield they produce automatically goes up.
If you have a money machine that produces 10 coins per day and it's worth $100, then it yields 10%. If that price now goes to $50 and it still produces the same 10 coins per day, the yield is now 20%. So when there's no demand, the price of the money machine goes down, the yield goes up, because it produces the same number of coins. What we're seeing now is the yield going up, meaning people are dumping US Treasuries heavily — because they're worried about inflation, worried about solvency, etc.
So the US is trying to fix it. The Treasury is using their own budget to buy back the bonds. They're deploying $6 billion. Not too much — in the bond market it's still not too much. They could deploy $60 billion. They could probably deploy $600 billion also. So I think it's only the beginning. Also, it is the US Treasury doing that because the Fed does not want to participate yet. But the US Treasury is still funded by the Fed at the end of the day. So whether it's the Treasury or the Fed, it's the same. There is very little separation. Where is the Treasury going to get money from? It's either from taxes or from printing new bonds that the Fed is going to buy in the future. So this is QE in my mind. This is QE. You can have different mental gymnastics about it. At the end of the day, it means more dollars in circulation. That's what it means.
US Treasury has officially bought back $6 billion of its debt less than a week after the last one. Dollar debasement is accelerating. So there is a debasement rate here, and Bitcoin can go very, very high. Bitcoin in Q4 can easily go to all-time high. It's just October now, guys. We have three more months. Bitcoin can do crazy things in three months. Just like on the way down, people were surprised it could fall from the peak all the way — about 35% in three months. People were surprised. The same thing on the way back up. It can easily go back to all-time high before the year is over. Easily, easily, easily. And as I'm speaking, literally as I'm speaking, the price is going up. Bitcoin is mooning higher and higher and higher, relentlessly pumping.
SEC Moves Toward Crypto Regulatory Clarity
Some news: Samsung saying Bitcoin's next leg will be the most hated rally of all time — everyone had the opportunity to buy the dip but didn't because they were waiting for $40K. That's very, very true.
The IMF has approved $139 million for El Salvador after waiving its breach of the Bitcoin agreement. So basically, the IMF and El Salvador had a situation — El Salvador is trying to get money from the IMF, the IMF was saying stop buying Bitcoin. But it seems El Salvador is going to get the money. What El Salvador should do is take the money and then still buy Bitcoin with it. That would be the best.
Now it's time to be bullish on ISM. You remember last October we said don't worry about the ISM, ignore the ISM — it's Fugazi, we're going to go down. We went down a lot. Altcoins went down 8–9%. Now I'm telling you the vice versa. It's time to interpret all signals bullishly. Apparently ISM is bullish. That's that.
Next: the head of the SEC saying, "Since the advent of Bitcoin in 2008, the crypto asset market has grown from a niche curiosity into a multi-trillion dollar asset. Unfortunately, our rules and regulations have not kept pace." And to that end, today's proposal would provide a clear regulatory framework, and so forth. So they're moving ahead with regulation based on current laws. The SEC is taking steps themselves to provide clarity — basically doing the job of the Clarity Act without the Clarity Act. It's good. It's very good.
The problem is that if Democrats come into power and there is a new Gary Gensler — and again, we're apolitical — but last time Democrats were in power, we had Gary Gensler. I can just note that as a fact. If Democrats come to power, this could be reversed. That's the problem. The Clarity Act could not be reversed. But these rules they make now could be reversed. So yeah, that's that.
Q&A — Solana, Cardano, Sui, Chainlink, Tron, Quant, and More
Ivan on Tech: Let's go to Q&A — questions, answers, debates. Let's go.
Someone says their Solana average price is $96. Fantastic. You basically bought when it flipped bullish. I was screaming — I was telling everyone: get bullish on Solana, time to get bullish on Solana. It was around when it flipped, around $95. And yes indeed, Solana is continuing now. And it's only the beginning, guys. It's only the beginning. Solana is at the beginning. It's going to go way, way, way higher as the bull market continues. Could it reach $1,000? Let's see.
This is the video we did right when it flipped. Listen to this.
Ivan on Tech (from August 31st clip): "What about Solana? How high will it go? Okay guys, very important. Solana now has confirmed a bullish trend. We're now in the bull trend for Solana. Meaning that we don't look at the downside, we look at the upside. Always manage risk, always stop loss, but overall we're looking at how high, not how much down it's going to go. So the target for us is all-time high — new recapture to $300 within the next 12 months. And then we just have to see when the bull trend ends. Solana could easily go to $1K this cycle. Now with the disinflation proposal being confirmed, with less inflation there's less supply, and the tech is the best — the highest volume. So don't overcomplicate it, guys. Never overcomplicate. In a bull market, we are very, very good."
Everything there was correct. People were saying Solana is dead. Memes are now on Robinhood. I don't know, guys — it's still the same. And this was end of August, August 31st. We did this very clearly, saying time to be bull, bull, bull. So yeah, let's see what's going to happen. I think it's only the beginning. Only the beginning. Especially with assets that also have a lot of use case. Fantastic.
Someone asks about Tao. We discussed Tao a few days ago. Let's check it again. Tao was coming back to the breakout. It's still the same — it needs to pump above this breakout, but it is coming back. So that's good.
Someone mentions Robinhood volume dried up real fast. Yeah, at the end of the day, it is a corporate community. It's tough to have a corporate community. It has a temporary community of extractors. This is the problem. If you do something nice — like what Robinhood has done — you're going to have traders, and they managed to capture a nice wave with the tokenised stocks, etc. But what's next? You constantly need people building. You constantly need some kind of community.
And by the way, as I'm saying this, Bitcoin is pushing literally, potentially to new highs here for the cycle. It needs to go to $87,300, but it's very, very close.
What happened to Tron? Let's see. Tron should be fantastic. Technically still a bear trend, but all in all the chart is very nice. Should it go bull trend and to price discovery? I'm very bullish on Tron. Tron is one of these things that in bull markets does very well. It didn't even have a bear market. Can you imagine that? It peaked here in August 2025. How much down? It went like 23%. It's barely a correction — like a bull market correction. Now it's down only 7% from the peak here in 2025. Crazy strength. But there's no impulse wave, no impulse pump. It's just grinding towards the flip. Should it flip, I think we're going to see some nice impulse pumps.
How high can Chainlink reach in Q4? Let's check Chainlink. Yeah, Chainlink is looking good. How high can it go? It is now getting above this resistance. So the next target is this high from 2024 — not the all-time high, but this 2024 high. It really needs to get above that. That's the big target now. It's still chewing through a lot of resistance here, but that's the next target. I would say somewhere here is the next target — to start setting a new high above all of this. That'd be very, very nice. Fantastic.
Someone asks about another influencer. We don't watch other influencers. We don't focus on other influencers. We have our own thing, and you should too. I don't comment on anyone else's analysis — except for the banana zone, that's the only thing I comment on just for fun. But sometimes people ask me, "Ivan, this guy is saying this, this guy is saying that." I don't care. I don't care about what anyone says. We have our own plan.
In October we said to be risk-off. In 2022 we said to be risk-on. October — risk-off. During the summer we started to accumulate. I don't need anyone else's input because we have a strategy that is back-tested. Whatever some dude says anywhere, I don't give it two flying foxes. That's how it is, guys. And I recommend you do the same.
You can have different people, different analysts, different influencers, and they can have a strategy that could work if you just focus on one. But the pleb watches a bit of this, a bit of that — he has no consistency. He watches a bit of this, a bit of that. "Oh, this guy said this. Oh, how do I unite it?" How do you unite it into one single cluster that doesn't make sense? That's why the pleb is wrecked. You should just stick to a strategy.
99.99% of people have zero clue. They have zero clue. Or they pretend. Here we have everything publicly. In many other cases, there's no back-testing, no entry, no exit, no coherence. What is this? It's like asking Bill Gates to comment on your vibe-coded app you just made with Claude. What do you mean? Anyway, hope it makes sense. That's why I never comment on other people's analysis — except just for fun, like the banana zone. I love that.
Thank you for the question. It's a good topic because most people listen to too many voices and then try to unite the strategy, and you get a chocolate sausage — but it's not chocolate. You just get the sausage that is brown. Why? Because of math. The math matters. Mechanical rules are back-tested in bull and bear.
That's why I can be so relaxed. People sometimes ask me, "How can you be so relaxed?" Because we have risk management. If the market goes against us, we're good. If the market goes with us, we're even better. This is how you can be calm. You can be zen. We have a strategy. And just look at what has happened since the bull flip. There was a bit of bear here — people freaking out. It's crazy. Just during the last week. Some character said he's bearish. Well, it seems to pump. Maybe it's going to go down. People mention all kinds of characters. Get out of here.
Sometimes the characters online are bullish one day, bearish another day — because it's engagement. That's the best engagement. That's the crypto influencer starter pack: bullish today, bearish tomorrow.
Rate Hikes, Cardano, and the Importance of Living Through the Chart
Someone says interest rate hikes are the code word for bull market in crypto. Well, interest rate hikes — that's another thing people were so worried about. You remember last month, people said, "Oh, they're going to hike rates. We're going to go down. It's going to be a Bart." They hike rates, we go up. Because higher rates don't matter in the bull. They don't matter in the bull.
The reason I can tell you things with such clarity is because this whole chart — I have lived through it. Each and every candle went through my body. Not to get weird, but it's true. I have lived through, emotionally, neurologically, consciously, subconsciously — the whole Bitcoin chart. Each and every candle has gone through my psyche, through my nervous system. So I know on a subconscious level what is correct and not correct.
For example, when people were worried about rate hikes last month, there was a guy called Ben. He said it's going to be a Bart. I said no Bart. Why? Because rate hikes don't matter. Why? Because I remember what happened last bull market. Last bull market, rates went up in the beginning. Now I love Ben — Ben is a great guy, honest guy, ethical guy. We love that. But rate hikes don't matter in the bull. When there's a new bull, you can have high rates. For example, in 2023, they increased the rates four times. Did it matter? It did not matter. Because I have the whole chart since 2013 — tick, tick, tick, tick — it went through me. I have a deep level of understanding of the Bitcoin market and any market, because the principles are the same. But especially the crypto market, because it's so unique. You need experience.
The conclusion: when you've had a massive drawdown of one year-plus, like we had in crypto, bad news simply doesn't dump us — because there's no one else to sell. Everyone sold.
Let's check Cardano. So Cardano, at least on Kraken, is bullish. Let's check other exchanges. It's bullish on Coinbase. Let's see Bitstamp — still bearish. Let's see. Is it USDT pairs that are still not bullish? Yeah, USDT pairs seem to not be bullish yet. USD pairs seem to be bullish. USDT pairs — not really bullish.
So all in all, for best risk management, you do want both USDT and USD pairs to close bullish. But if you want more risk, you could potentially front-run. It's bullish on some charts, but according to mechanical rules, you should wait for the major exchanges to agree — and that includes USDT and USD pairs. So just wait one more week. It's somewhere here, and it's going to be better risk-reward for you.
Euro pair also bullish. I don't look at Euro — I look at USD. But USDT is like USD, so it's the same. You don't have to check Euro. You don't have to check Nigerian naira. You don't have to check Turkish lira — they have their own problems. You need to use the same measuring stick, and stablecoins are the same measuring stick as USD. So with a trading strategy, you don't need to measure against world currencies. Most world currencies are going down anyway. You're going to have a bull trend too early in them. Bitcoin is always bullish against Turkish lira and Nigerian naira, even in a bear market.
God Candles, Quant, and Why You Never Chase an Insider Pump
Let's check one more. Are they still pumping after that clearing house announcement? With the gold candles — we have a strategy with gold candles, and that's to take it easy, because if you're not an insider, there's no way to participate in the gold candle.
Quant had a god candle. The next important level is this previous high from 2021. We almost came to it. People who followed in here made a very bad decision. You remember when it pumped — we said don't feel the need to chase a god candle. It's also one of the mechanical rules: you don't have to chase a god candle. A god candle — insiders knew. You did not know. So now you're going to chase. What happens? You chased it. Now you lost money because it was here at 360, and now it is 230. Never chase a god candle, guys. It's like you were not invited to the party. You're going to go there and beg to be let in? No.
You could be invited to the next one. Here's the thing: should it go above here, this is a level which you can participate in, which makes sense. The massive explosion from here to here — no one can participate in that if you're not an insider. If you're not an insider, no one made money on this except insiders. But that excuse for not being in the asset stops working if there is real demand coming in here and it starts making new highs. Then you have no excuse not to participate. But we need real demand. We need real demand to come. The god candle happened on low liquidity — they got this announcement with the clearing house, etc. Good. How much real demand is it? If there is real demand, you're going to see it come into this area and then boop — upside. So that's the plan for how you can trade something with a strategy. God candle chasing is not a strategy. It's FOMO. It's emotional. You're probably wrecked if you tried that — you bought at 360, it's 230. Congrats.
Again: calmness, mechanical rules. I need to create a bit of education about god candles in Bulmania. That's actually very important. I'll add a video for you guys going through the different god candles, because it's a very important lesson in the market. Never chase a god candle. A god candle happens — no one knows. Only insiders know. But a god candle can evolve into realness if there is real demand coming in. So let's see. It's not like Quant is bad — we love Quant. But for us to make money, we need reasons to participate. Reasons to participate is a bull trend. So if it goes bullish — that's good. But the bull trend was created based on the mega pump, the god candle mega pump. So the next reason for us is to take out this level — then it means price discovery, normally a super bullish signal. That would be my plan here.
Sui — Bull Trend Confirmed, Targets Ahead
Did Sui stagnate instead? Let's check. It went bull trend this Monday. So Sui — we were bullish, we're bullish now, after being bearish this whole bear market. Now we're bullish. You have a bit of resistance here — about 10% — then here is going to be 63%, and then the high here is 343%. So all in all, I think it has a good chance to come back to its highs. Very good chance. That's the bet with Sui — that it's going to come back to the highs.
But guys, listen — I've got to go a bit earlier today. We're at 37 minutes, but okay, to be fair, not super much earlier — 10 minutes less. Even when I have to go, I ensure you guys get a full knowledge upload. That's very important.
Without a clear strategy, you're at the whims of the content machine that other influencers have — that forms your attention, that forms your emotion. Today bullish, tomorrow bearish. It's the classic engagement-forming. But your money is at stake. Your portfolio is at stake. Your mental health — you're running like a headless chicken. When you don't have a clear strategy, look at our content. You see how clear? You see how every day it's a consistent strategy — boop, boop, boop, boop. You come back, we start exactly where we left off. In many other cases, you come back and there's a totally new story every day. "Bro, but you were bullish yesterday." "Yeah, I found another chart, guys."
Big shout out to everyone. Have a good day. Big shout out to Guzman. Bye-bye.