Bitcoin & Crypto Good News Friday — markets, legislation, and price predictions
Rob from Digital Asset News covers a range of positive developments in the crypto space on a Friday roundup.
Summary
A solo Friday good news roundup from Digital Asset News covers geopolitical developments, crypto legislation, Bitcoin price analysis, and hardware wallet security. The host highlights Trump's announcement that Iran has agreed to resume talks, and discusses the Clarity Act's prospects with commentary from Coinbase's vice chair. He also addresses Bitcoin's price stability in the $60K–$69K range, offers his personal price prediction for the next cycle top (settling primarily around $150K–$160K), and covers Robinhood's DEX volume milestone. The episode closes with an extended Q&A session covering hardware wallet security, diminishing returns in Bitcoin cycles, the likelihood of the Clarity Act passing, and lessons from the Voyager, Celsius, and FTX collapses — including his Rule #3 of never leaving crypto on exchanges.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Trump Announces Iran Agrees to Resume Talks
Rob: Not every day has negative news. Days like today where there's nothing but good news, we'll take it as a win. And it all starts with DJT.
Let me put on my geopolitical expert hat as we go talk through this. This was posted on the official White House X account, just this morning, roughly about three hours ago. The president of the United States states: "The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue talks. We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated them in no uncertain terms that the ceasefire is over. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJT. Donald J. Trump."
So that's actually good. And I'm sure the markets responded. Although, the last time we saw this collapse — when the memorandum of understanding fell through and the peace talks went out the window — the market didn't really care too much. Today, Bitcoin is doing pretty good. But it's not just that as far as good news goes.
Coinbase Vice Chair on the Clarity Act
Rob: This was the vice chair of Coinbase as he came on Fox Business and talked about the Clarity Act. Now, I have not been too bullish on the Clarity Act. When the whole proposal came and went just last week, it was supposed to be passing, supposed to be pretty good. Now it gets pushed to August, but maybe I'm being too harsh. So I'm going to open up my mind a little bit and hear what the vice chair of Coinbase has to say.
Coinbase Vice Chair: I can tell you firsthand, as a former senior regulator at the SEC, we believe and we embrace the importance of regulation, because regulation and clarity in this space is going to protect investors. It's going to foster innovation, and it's going to allow the US to lead in this space. I'm greatly encouraged by what we are seeing with the Clarity Act because it has that vision in mind. It has customer protections in mind, and maybe even more importantly, it is a bipartisan effort — because what we are seeing on the ground is a concerted group of Democratic and Republican senators working around the clock to get this across the finish line.
Rob: That is true, because there are a lot of people who actually like Bitcoin and digital assets in the United States. However, if you take a look at the sentiment from the last Super Bowl commercial from Coinbase — I don't know if you remember this, but there was a big group of people, Coinbase played their commercial, it was some kind of singalong type of thing, and as soon as it was known that it was Coinbase, everybody started to boo.
The reason why this is important is because it's all about the constituents and what the constituents want for that particular state. So if there are two opposing parties working together, maybe that's good. Maybe I'm incorrect. Maybe they will come together, Kumbaya, and everybody will pass it. That sounds fantastic, because if it does happen, that means the price will go up pretty well, and I'd like to see that actually move forward.
So that again was the vice chair of Coinbase, and that is just one side of the story.
The Ethics Agreement: The Key to Unlocking the Clarity Act
Rob: There's also this little tidbit from Ellen Tret, just in: for the Clarity Act to advance, an ethics agreement is the key to unlocking the rest of the negotiations. Ellen Tret states: if we can get the ethics piece, the rest of the bill will come together.
What this really comes down to is essentially whether the president of the United States and his family are willing to step aside for the good of the crypto community to actually get this passed. It all comes down to this: Congress has the STOCK Act, which essentially says officials cannot trade on insider information that is being put forth so they can reap the rewards in the traditional equities space. Makes sense, right? We don't want people with inside information. It's the same thing here with crypto.
So they're saying: look, if you agree to this — and it's not just the president and his family. You have to understand it's not like President Donald Trump has to step down, Eric has to step down, Junior has to step down. It's for every official that has insider information. They are not allowed to trade it. I think that's reasonable.
Anyhow, if that actually goes through, that's pretty big. So there's that good news. Maybe I was wrong and the Clarity Act gets pushed forward. Again, this is Friday good news day, so we'll see how this works out.
Bitcoin Price Stability and Historical Context
Rob: As a reminder, we're doing pretty good as far as timelines go. This was from CoinDesk, and I didn't realize this, but the $60K to $69K range — essentially $60K to $70K — this is the third longest amount of time that the price of Bitcoin has been within this parameter.
Between $10K and $19K, that was the longest: over a year, 425 or 426 days. The second longest was $20K to $29K. Now you would think it would just fall in line — $30K, $40K, $50K. Nope. $60K to $69K. How long has that been going on? 37 days in the $60K to $70K range.
Why is that such a big thing? It's because it's stability. I know people don't always like stability — actually, they like volatility if it goes up. Only crazy people like us like it when it goes down, because we start to buy more. But as a reminder, the volatility has decreased greatly.
If we go back four years, we're actually at this point — July 10th, 2022 — down 68%. Today, we are down 19% less, at 49%. That's pretty good. I'll take that. 68 versus 48, yeah, at roughly $64,000.
And then as a reminder, if you're not buying — I can't tell you to buy, I'm just saying personally I'm buying. I think this is a pretty good time to buy, as far as the 200-day moving average time frames, four-year cycles, everything else. If we're in this range right here and everything stays the same — well, first of all, if everything stays the same as it did four years ago, we'll be down 65% in no time. I don't think it's going to happen, but it could. But around this time going all the way into November, December, that's when we see a lot of the drop-off. Again, these prices are just estimations based on four years previously.
It looks a little bit crazy going out to 75% down — that's what happened last time. But if you think about it right here at $64K, $63K, $62K — let's just round down to $60K. As time goes on, the price of Bitcoin usually goes up. I like these days. And just to get here to April 3rd, 2028 — whatever dollar you put into Bitcoin around below the 200-day moving average roughly, you get double in essentially two years. That's not bad.
And then if we keep going further, until like May, June, July, August, September — $180,000. Now, I personally don't think we're going to hit $180,000. I'm going to be ultra-conservative and say that the next blowoff top — here's my price prediction — is somewhere between $130,000 and $160,000. You should mark that. That's probably going to be referenced. I think $160K is a reasonable number to go up from $126K or whatever we were at before. Maybe $150K. I could sell at that. Let me think about that in the comment section.
Robinhood Chain Flips Hyperliquid in DEX Volume
Rob: Just to finish up as far as good news goes, Robinhood — which has its own chain — processed more than $560 million in DEX volume, and that flipped Hyperliquid. Sorry if you're a Hyperliquid owner. I think you're doing just fine though with your massive price appreciation.
I had to take a look at what the heck Robinhood chain actually is. Apparently it is a Layer 2 built on Ethereum, and more specifically on Arbitrum. So Robinhood's choice to use Ethereum further solidifies its position as the ultimate settlement layer and liquidity foundation for tokenized assets.
The Robinhood chain is an EVM — Ethereum Virtual Machine — compatible, Arbitrum-based Layer 2 network that uses ETH as its native gas token. I guess that would be considered utility, right? Gas, Ethereum. Just putting that out there.
Robinhood has also offered tokenized stocks to customers in more than 120 countries, responding to surging demand for tokenized US equities. So congratulations to all the ETH holders and Arbitrum holders. You can't actually hold Robinhood chain itself outside of Robinhood, but look at the rails. Look at what people are building on. That could be something.
Correction: Lana Is Publicly Tradeable
Rob: Speaking of which, yesterday we talked about Swift — the messaging service where all the banks transfer everything. It's like a messaging service when you move money around. I talked about it being built on Lana. I said it was a permissioned — which is true — and centralized — which is also true — blockchain that you can't buy, which was false.
Lana, which I had totally forgotten about, is ranked number 178. You actually can buy Lana — however you say it, Linea, Lana, I'm not sure — but it's ranked 178 and it's at $0.002. Over one year, it's down roughly 90%. So hey, maybe this is something good for you. But yeah, I got that one wrong. Lana, you can actually buy it. I will not be buying it, but good luck with all those things.
Hardware Wallet Recommendations and Security
Rob: So, everything we just talked about — I just want to wrap it up into this. Get some storage. Get some security. I don't care if you're making, like I said, double for every dollar you put in, or maybe even three times, especially if you're going the opposite way and getting into some altcoins. Whatever it is that you're getting into, I do not want to get an email from you saying, "Rob, I just lost my entire life savings. What do I do?" — which I get roughly every couple of weeks from somebody.
Just remember — I don't even use Ledger anymore. What am I saying? I use Tangem and iTrust. I got to replace this. That is not true. Just want to let everybody know. I don't use Ledger. And not because it sucks — it's just that I don't like it.
So Tangem and iTrust as far as custodial services — kind of important. It's the same custodial service that Coinbase and Fidelity use. I've been with iTrust for my Roth IRA since 2020. And as far as custodial service, it's been two years, and I actually cashed out with them recently — it was like November, December, something like that — and it worked out pretty well.
Q&A Session
Rob: All right, let's get into a little Q&A.
Someone says: "Ledger — keep your seed phrase. A firmware upgrade will mess it up."
I never had a problem with the firmware per se. I know other people have, and I'm not here to bash Ledger. I mean, they've been around for quite some time. They've never been hacked — actually, that's not true. Personal information was hacked, and I'm not even going to say something funny about it. It's not good because your personal information is out there. But the Ledger device itself has never been hacked. It seems to be very resilient and they're doing the best they possibly can. I just don't like the interface. I don't like the device. I just find it clunky.
I like Tangem. I like the card. I like the fact that I don't have mnemonic phrases. They give you the option to do a seed phrase or just use a card, and I just did the card. I don't like seed phrases rolling around. I don't like them on a piece of paper. I don't like them in the bank. I don't like them on a bus. I don't like them with a truss — this is Dr. Seuss — but you get what I'm saying. I just don't like to put that out there.
And people say, "Well, what if they get your card? Can't they take all your crypto?" No, that's not how it works. They need essentially two of your cards to actually make that work. And if you're silly enough to walk around with two cards together with your life savings in there, what are you doing? That's insanity.
Dick asks: "Rob, how do you feel about passing the Clarity Act during a bear market?"
Like I said, it's in the midterm years. Donald Trump just released his finances — he made $1.4 billion on meme coins. The Democrats want to take control of the House. They probably will. The Senate will be a little more difficult, I think. But they don't want to give Donald Trump any kind of win. And once the Clarity Act passes, he is the crypto president, right? That's what he calls himself all the time. They do not want to give him any type of win. But maybe they listen to their constituents and go against the party lines and vote for it. It'll be interesting to see. I have no faith in any politician, so I think it's not going to pass. Great question.
Someone asks about my back.
My back is actually hurting today because I've been taking these peptides — BPC-157 and then the other one, BPC — miracle stuff, works great. Then unfortunately I try to do too much and everything starts hurting a little bit again. So I had to take a little time off. But that's why they invented beer. So that's what I'll be doing tonight.
Carl says: "If politicians have no incentive to pass legislation in the average person's interest, they will only do things for core and big money donors."
That's probably true. But to be fair, as far as donors go, in the last presidential election, the cryptocurrency space donated the most — or if not the most, it's in the top two or three. But there are also banks out there that despise crypto, and for good reason. So maybe their money shines through. They sure as heck didn't want the Clarity Act or the GENIUS Act to go through. It'll be interesting to see which one wins — the old bankers or us.
Someone asks: "Did you see the Tangem FUD?"
I did not. Let's go to the source. Let's just type in Tangem on X.
Ledger's Don CJ team privately notified Tangem about a laser fault injection vulnerability back on February 10th. Tangem is fine for now — the design is marked as a security strength against supply chain attacks, meaning no firmware update is possible, which also means no patches are possible when a silicon-level flaw is found. Don CJ found a way to make Tangem cards misread a single security check with a precisely timed laser pulse. According to the research, that's enough to reset the password. Because the card's firmware can't be updated, there's no way to patch the bug.
So you're telling me the only way this works is with a laser to the card? Okay. That's a bit much. But it is interesting — always good to get that information out there.
It's amazing how one side will tell you the most sensational part about it, and another side will tell you what's actually going on and you're like, "That doesn't make any sense." I mean, I get it. It's the same thing as when there was a FUD piece about Ledger — how they were able to take it apart, take the chip, and do something with it to gain inner access. But they had to have the physical Ledger device and it had to be a firmware version two or three years out of date. And you're like, who the heck is going to do that? I mean, it can happen. Doesn't mean it's very likely. Same thing here.
Someone says: "I don't see anything wrong with being able to copy what politicians invest in, regardless of what positions they hold."
Very true. I just wish we could know that stuff earlier — as early as they do — because we have to wait for them to file everything with the SEC and the legalities of what they actually invested in every quarter. And in crypto, that's an eternity.
Carl asks: "Hey Rob, is your prediction of $160K Bitcoin based on data or do you just think it? I would think we'd at least get to $170K considering diminishing returns. Last cycle we did 7x from the bottom, 5x this cycle."
Yeah, but you have to look at what we did from top to top. From the all-time high in 2021 to the all-time high in 2025, that wasn't even a 2x — it was a 1.8x. And if we go back and look at what the high was from 2017 to 2021, that was over a 3x. So you have 3x, then less than 2x. So if we're going to go from that to $120K, it's going to be way lower than that.
The thing is, when we take a look at it, we always think it'll keep going up and keep going up. I'm going to be selling way before that and just go from there. We'll all get caught up in some kind of narrative and think this is going to be great. But I think it's all about what you want to do. I personally will be just fine if I buy at $60K and sell around $150K–$160K. I could take that.
Actually, let me stand corrected. All-time high to all-time high: 2011 to 2013, 40x — let's just negate that one, that's an outlier. 2013 to 2017, 16x. 2017 to 2021, 3.4x. Now we're at 1.8x. Diminishing returns. 3.4 to 1.8 is roughly a 44% reduction. We didn't even double. So what if we do 1.5x? I guess $180K could be reasonable, but do you really want to risk it from $150K–$160K to $180K? I'm not. So that's it for me.
Someone asks: "What if everyone got so burned they shoved all their money into the top 10?"
Yeah, but the majority of real funds reside in the top 20, and really the majority in the top ten. There's no liquidity in the smaller ones — it's too thin, you couldn't even cash out. But it's a good point.
We've got a $2.2 trillion market cap roughly, and $1.2–$1.3 trillion of that is Bitcoin. So you're only looking at about $900 billion to $1 trillion more. Ethereum is $215 billion — that's a quarter. Then you've got $184 billion for Tether. Then $77 billion BNB, $73 billion USDC. And then once we get down the market cap rankings, it gets pretty thin — around number 20, it goes from $5 billion, then $4 billion, then quickly down to $3 billion, $2 billion, $1 billion, and then a bunch of worthless stuff — or the next great crypto. Who knows? That's anybody's guess.
Someone asks: "Where are all the VGX heroes these days?"
Same place as me — not entirely sure just how awful Voyager was. If we talk about all the different collapses: Sam Bankman-Fried actually did a pretty good job of investing — there was an article about all the different companies he put money into, some were AI like OpenAI and stuff like that. If he just would have not done the Ponzi scheme stuff and not mismanaged the funds of the traders that put their money into FTX, that was the big thing.
Celsius is a different story. They were essentially a Ponzi. The guy lied to everybody's face. That's pretty much what it was.
And then Voyager did something incredibly stupid. They did an uncollateralized loan for like $640 million to Three Arrows Capital, which of course were supposedly the greatest traders, greatest market makers out there — and of course, they were a bunch of filthy liars too. So once we found out there was an uncollateralized loan, we did a video. Then two weeks later, Voyager collapsed.
That's actually why I have these rules. It's Voyager and Celsius, but Voyager really cemented it — specifically rule number three: no exchanges. Don't leave your crypto on exchanges. Now, do I follow that every time perfectly? No. Sometimes my Bitcoin order fires off on Cash App and I might not get to it for another week or so. It does happen.
Someone asks: "Isn't there more Mt. Gox people scheduled to get their Bitcoin in October? Might be significant."
I've been hearing that since I got into crypto. We'll see.
Someone says: "My memecoin wallet — I don't even dare to log in. I'm afraid of what I'll find."
That's also true. We've all made some mistakes.
Carl says: "You should at least pick a random subscriber one day on your live and give them a standard pass for the ITC conference."
Let me show you the exact message I sent to Ben last night on that particular topic: "Hey, I need a couple of standard passes and one pro as a giveaway. People love free stuff." No answer. You would think Ben would be all on board with that. Do me a favor, everybody — go over to Ben's channel and say, "Hey, Rob needs a couple of those passes. Would you give him some so we can raffle them away?" Don't be shy.