Alessio Rastani analyses Bitcoin's key support levels and what they mean for the weeks ahead
Alessio Rastani presents a solo technical analysis of Bitcoin on weekly and monthly chart timeframes.
Summary
Alessio Rastani opens with a brief personal note explaining his absence from the channel due to an unexpectedly long seven-week jury service, which he describes as a positive experience, before moving into a detailed technical analysis of Bitcoin. He identifies what he calls "quadruple support" — a confluence of a long-term trend line, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at approximately $57,799, the 200-week moving average, and the 50-period simple moving average on the monthly chart — all of which Bitcoin is currently holding. He argues that as long as this support cluster holds, bulls remain in control and a rally toward the 21-week moving average near $70,000–$75,000 is probable over the coming weeks and months. However, he warns that a sustained break below $57,000 would open the door to a significant drop toward $49,000–$50,000.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Personal note: Jury service absence explained
Alessio Rastani: Hey guys, Alessio here. Hope you're well. In this video, we're going to look at a chart of Bitcoin from a longer-term perspective and explain what is likely occurring on this chart on the longer timeframe, as well as this particular chart. We'll explain the significance of some key levels for Bitcoin in the next several weeks and months.
You're probably wondering why I haven't made a video for some time. The main reason is that I was on jury service — or jury duty — for many weeks back in May. I was called in and they said it would probably last about two weeks, but then I found out I had to be on a case, a trial, which lasted seven weeks.
Now, I know some of you are probably thinking, "Wow, that must have been terrible, probably a bad experience." Actually, on the contrary — I have to tell you, I enjoyed my time being a juror and sitting in a trial. And let me just say this: there are some people out there who will tell you that you should try to get out of doing jury duty. Don't listen to them. One thing I learned is that the criminal justice system desperately needs more intelligent and fair-minded people. If every smart and fair-minded person said, "I'm not going to do jury duty," that means the only people left who will decide whether a person goes to prison or not are the ignorant and the stupid ones. So I would seriously suggest that if you're an intelligent person who likes critical thinking, who likes to look at different sides of a story, and if you're fair-minded — if you're called in for jury duty, go ahead and do it. You will meet some new people and you might actually enjoy it. I made some great friends and had a great time.
Bitcoin weekly chart: trend line, Fibonacci, and 200-week moving average
All right, let's get back to the charts. As far as Bitcoin is concerned, we have this weekly chart as you can see here — the longer timeframe. And in a few minutes, I'll also take a look at the monthly timeframe as well.
What is fascinating is that Bitcoin, after this massive drop we're seeing here — this bear market which went all the way and actually went temporarily below the 200-week moving average — look what it did. It came and made contact with this trend line support that you're seeing here. By the way, you're probably wondering why I'm using a standard chart and not a logarithmic chart. The simple reason is that if you use a logarithmic chart, the trend lines will not look proper. So if you want the trend lines to be more reliable, you need to switch to a standard chart, not a logarithmic chart.
Anyway, we can see that Bitcoin came down to this important trend line support — as we can see here by connecting these lows from the year 2023 — and so far it has held. Bitcoin price came down to that trend line support just under $60,000, around $57,000, and has held that support and bounced from it. So far that level of support is holding, which is a good sign.
Another important thing: Bitcoin came to the 200-week moving average, and so far it appears that Bitcoin is trying to regain some ground and go back above it. Even though it broke temporarily, so far the 200-week moving average seems to be holding. That's a good sign as well.
Another important thing is this. If you do a Fibonacci retracement — drawing from this low all the way to the all-time highs of Bitcoin — you will see that the 61.8% golden ratio retracement is right there at $57,799. That level held. Bitcoin came very close to that level and so far has held that support. As you know, the golden ratio retracement — the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement — is a key level of support during retracements, pullbacks, and corrections. We can see that despite this bear market on Bitcoin, so far it appears Bitcoin has held triple support.
Monthly chart: the 50 SMA and historical context
There is one more thing I want to show you, and that is the monthly chart of Bitcoin. You can see Bitcoin is also holding the 50 simple moving average on the monthly chart, and that's a very key level because in the past, typically Bitcoin has held that level.
For example, in the year 2023, during this pullback, Bitcoin held its 50 simple moving average and managed to rally from there. Going back a little further — in the year 2022, it did not hold that level. But if you go back to previous years, and again we're looking at probabilities here, not certainties — you can see back in the year 2020 during a major drop, despite falling temporarily below it, Bitcoin managed to recover. In the year 2018–2019, it came very close to that 50 simple moving average but still held above it. And going back to the previous example — yes, there it is — back in the year 2015, both times it managed to hold that level of support, the 50 simple moving average.
So it is an important level, which currently — as we can see — is so far holding. What does that mean? It means we seem to be holding overall quadruple support, because apart from the monthly 50 SMA, we're also holding the trend line, the Fibonacci support, and the 200-week moving average. Quadruple support is so far holding Bitcoin. That's a good sign.
Upside targets and the case for a rally
There is a potential for Bitcoin to stage some kind of a rally or a bounce, which it seems to be doing at the moment. Keeping it simple for now: as long as Bitcoin can protect this support, bulls seem to be in control. And as long as bulls are in control, there is potential for some kind of a temporary bounce or rally.
Don't get me wrong here — I'm not suggesting that Bitcoin has bottomed and is now going to rally all the way to new all-time highs. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that support is holding. Several key levels are holding Bitcoin at the moment. And that means, as long as that level of support holds just under $60,000 near $57,000, there's potential for bulls to remain in control and potentially push the Bitcoin price a bit further higher — towards, for example, a move to the 21-week moving average, this blue line, which is approximately near $70,000. So there's a potential move that may happen in the next several weeks towards $70,000, maybe just above that.
There's also one more thing. My good friend Charlie Burton mentioned in one of his videos that we have the 50 simple moving average here on the weekly chart, and we can see the distance — look at the distance between the price and the 50 SMA. Because usually, after price gets stretched and overstretched from the 50 average, there's a tendency for Bitcoin to move towards that 50-week average. Now, I'm not saying Bitcoin is going to go all the way up to where that average is right now — because as we know, it's a moving average, so this line is moving and is dynamic. That means in the next several weeks and months, this average is going to keep coming down. So there's potential for this moving average to catch up with the price of Bitcoin, and there is a likelihood that Bitcoin may even interact with and touch that level — not at the level where it is right now, but maybe at a lower level, perhaps in the $70,000 to $75,000 range, if we get there in the next several months.
Downside risk if support breaks
So that's really what I have here for Bitcoin. But let me also finish with this point: if Bitcoin cannot hold on to that support — if it cannot hold on to this important support level at the trend line and the Fibonacci level just near $57,000 — if that level breaks, there is a very strong risk of a move down to the lows of 2024, just near or under $50,000. A sustained drop below the lows we made recently near $57,000 could result in a significant drop down to approximately $50,000 or $49,000.
By the way, I know some people are going to say in the comment section, "Oh, Alessio is saying it's going to go up, it's going to come down — so no matter what happens, he can say he's right." Honestly, these people never stop embarrassing themselves, because they don't understand that analysis is all about probabilities. It's about looking at the chart, seeing what is probable, what is less probable. I'm looking at this from an objective standpoint because nobody has a crystal ball. Nobody knows what's going to happen next.
All I'm simply saying is that for now, as long as Bitcoin can protect that quadruple support level just near $57,000 or just under $60,000, it appears bulls have a chance. And if bulls can take the opportunity here and push this into a move toward the 21-week average — which I think is probable and likely in the next several weeks and months, given that Bitcoin is oversold and given the distance between the price and the 50 simple moving average — there's potential for some kind of a strong bounce. But again, that's only if Bitcoin can protect and stay above the recent lows.