Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's position near the 200-week moving average and discusses a broader rotation out of AI stocks into crypto
Ivan on Tech presents a solo market analysis stream covering Bitcoin's current position, the AI stock rotation, regulatory developments, and various crypto ecosystem news.
Summary
Ivan on Tech delivers a live market analysis stream, arguing that while Bitcoin remains in a bear trend near the 200-week moving average, the conditions for the next bull market are beginning to align. He contends that capital rotating out of AI stocks — many of which are now flipping bearish — will eventually find its way into crypto, which he characterizes as historically cheap at current levels. He maintains his prior stance that one more downside flush is likely before a true bull market begins, with Q4 2026 as his target for the bull market recovery to begin. He also covers Robinhood's new blockchain launch, Zcash's formal verification of its Ironwood pool, SEC safe harbor rulemaking expected in July, and a Kraken court victory worth $22 million. Additionally, Ivan discusses the limitations of fundamental analysis versus trend-following, using Adobe as a case study, and covers regulatory pressure on prediction markets including a major court loss for Kalshi in New York.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin's Position and the Case for Waiting
Ivan on Tech: We're going live. We're clicking the button. Oh yes. Oh yes. Oh yes. Guys, welcome to another episode. And as you can see right now, Bitcoin is around the 200-week moving average. We're bouncing around here, a bit above, a bit below. As you know, our stance still remains — with highest likelihood, we have one last flash left. One last flash in this bear market before the bull market. Bull market is next.
Now guys, meanwhile, while we are waiting for the flash, there are important signs that the rotation is beginning. The way that the next bull market will shape out is likely down to a few things. Number one is rate cuts. They will happen later this year. We did cover what the Fed said about unemployment and inflation. They are priming the market now for rate cuts. That's number one.
Number two will be the fact that there will be hundreds of billions flowing away from AI. As you know, we've been bullish on AI for the entirety of this year and the two months of last year. We've been super bullish AI stocks. They have been doing fantastically well. But guys, unfortunately, what is happening right now for AI stocks is that many of them are going bearish. The rotation is starting.
AI Stocks Flipping Bearish
SanDisk, for example — our beloved, our fantastic SanDisk, which has been a machine, a gain machine — is now going bearish. If we close the week like this, it will close and go bearish, and it wants to go even lower. As you can see, if you look at what flipped bearish within the AI sector in the last one week, you have all kinds of companies going bearish — semiconductor going bearish, everything now is starting to turn for AI stocks.
Not all of them are going bearish yet. For example, you have Astera still holding on to bull, but very close to bearish. You have Intel still holding on to bull, but very, very close to bearish. Micron is going bearish if we close the week below this flip level. Micron — beloved, beloved Micron, fantastic pump — is going bearish. Marvel is already bearish and going lower. Respect the bear trend, guys. Always respect the bear trend. Always, always, always respect the bear trend. Going lower.
AMD — the beloved AMD — is still holding up. Probably the best-looking chart out of all of them, still a long distance away from going bearish. You have Broadcom going bearish. Nvidia going bearish. Amazon going bearish. Meta going bearish, although with a bit of a pump. Google — our dear Google — is bearish. Tesla is still bull, still holding on. Palantir is bearish.
Where the Rotating Capital Will Go
So guys, the conclusion here — the timing is really crazy — because people have been saying the four-year cycle does not work, that Ivan doesn't know what he's speaking about when we said to be risk-off in October and that the next bull is going to start in Q4 2026. And now everything is really aligning itself fantastically well, because this money, this capital from AI — where will it go? Where will it go? It will start looking for cheap deals. It will start looking for something that's cheap, for something that has a narrative, that has a story, that has not been pumping yet. And crypto is that industry.
Crypto has been in the freaking gutter. Although the fundamentals of crypto have not changed. Nothing has changed. You still need sound money. You still need decentralization. You still need blockchain. Everything is moving on-chain. Stocks moving on-chain. Nothing of that has changed. But Bitcoin is at around the 200-week moving average, which is so cheap. Historically, fantastically cheap Bitcoin — even though we expect further downside. Everything in the green box is cheap and you can DCA here without even worrying, without even thinking.
So everything in the green box is cheap. And also you have the Chinese market dumping, you have SanDisk and AI dumping. And just like one commenter is saying, over a three-year time horizon, crypto will meaningfully outperform stocks. And he says that Zcash will outperform the rest of crypto. Well, that we'll have to see, but number one — for sure, for sure, for sure — is very important that the stock market and the relative returns will start favoring crypto next.
Nothing goes up forever, nothing goes down forever. And as soon as you have that flywheel — the news coming out that Bitcoin is outperforming stocks, Bitcoin is mooning, Bitcoin is going up — now the flywheel is getting stronger, more capital. You see your friend get rich. You're still in AI stocks, you still hold Nvidia. Nvidia is going to zero, or some other name is going to zero, because you don't respect the bear trend and you're just holding it and holding it. And then more and more people rotate into crypto. Very important.
Now, is it too early to say that the bear market is over? I think likely it's a bit too early. Just like one commenter is saying, Bitcoin's rally is just a relief bounce, not a true bull market. Again, we expect a bit further downside, but it's cheap. It's cheap anyway. But is it that we just go up from here? I think that's less likely. And we need to wait until Q4. We still need a bit of fear, a bit of despair, a bit of crushing of the soul. But you know, it's already July, man. Time flies. Then it's August, then September, then October. So when is October? Wake me up. Okay, wake me up, or I will wake you up.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows and Institutional Moves
Let's see. We have a bit of inflow in Bitcoin ETF — $21 million, because that's super small. It cannot be $21 billion. So it must be $21 million. I mean, it's tiny, guys. It's tiny. But we're happy. It's positive. Another daily inflow — that's good.
Look at Vanguard. They are waking up and are hiring a head of crypto. You remember Vanguard — they were the most anti-crypto big financial firm. Vanguard was saying crypto is for guys — just, you know, two years ago they were so anti, anti, anti. Now they're hiring a head of crypto.
You have Tom Lee buying another 40,000 ETH, trying to pump the price, trying to build the treasury. Well, actually for Tom Lee, ETH being cheap is good. For him, he just gets more ETH. He has a corporate strategy to get as much ETH as possible. So for him, it's happy days. Actually, it's happy days. That's why his incentive and your incentive are not always aligned. For him, it's good to have cheap ETH. It's very, very good to have cheap ETH.
Robinhood Chain Goes Live
Look here, guys. The big news during the last 24 hours is that Robinhood chain is live. And I have to say it is better than I thought. You remember a few days ago we were saying that the risk with Robinhood chain is that it will be corporate — they're going to do real-world assets or other corporate things. But actually on day one they go memes. That's more promising for the future of the chain. From day one they just say, yeah, it's great for memes. People go nuts memeing stuff — Cash Cat and all of this other stuff on Robinhood. Fantastic, man. Fantastic. They bridge stuff, they go nuts. So there's a bit of a mania here during the last 24 hours on Robinhood chain, but it's always like that. I remember when Base was new, there were also all kinds of memes like Toshi and whatever it was.
The big question is: can they for real compete with Solana or not? And we'll just have to find out. And all of these memes, they're super small. You see yourself — liquidity 3 million, liquidity 300K. So in reality, there's maybe like one coin — it is the Cash Cat — that has some kind of liquidity, because this 100K liquidity is basically non-existent. It's one click away from going to zero. But yeah, there you go.
All in all, good to see that they embrace the degen-ness, because that's the problem with corporate chains normally — they cannot really embrace the degen. They cannot say, "Hey guys, go nuts here, build ponzi, build ponzi." Well, you know, in crypto, we love the ponzi. We love the meme. We love the ponzi. But all in all, good. I mean, good start. Not bad. Let's see if they can hold it.
Robinhood has been live for less than a week. It's already crossed $250 million in units of protocol volume. There you go. And Anom is taking a bit of a hit because people are rotating into Cash Cat on Robinhood. And yeah, let's see if he can recover or not.
Anom's Perpetual Airdrop Model
He is running a perpetual airdrop to everyone who has Anom. So it's quite a new model — instead of airdropping all the coins at once, he is just drip-feeding the airdrop whenever he gets transaction fees from the coin. So it's a bit of a novel approach, you can say.
One commenter is saying what Anom is doing with his token probably reinvents how airdrops are done forever. In hindsight it was obvious, but the idea that you have an evergreen recurring airdrop is actually the way to do it and is the highest EV way to distribute tokens. Basically, you know, with Luca, he did the Pengu airdrop and he just airdropped everything at once, which was great. But with Anom, he's doing potentially something even better, because he's not airdropping all at once. He's giving you a bit and then he looks — are you holding the coin? What are you doing? And then he gives you a bit more. And then he looks — are you holding, or are you a jetter? Who are you? Then he gives you a bit more.
And the way that he funds the airdrops is via the transaction fee. So two ways: number one, he just airdrops the coin. But then, as far as I understand, he's also using the transaction fees — which in a few days can be like a million dollars — and then he also airdrops all of that.
Some people may say that people have done it, but functionally they haven't. The core differentiator here is the idea of airdropping new users tokens every day or week, versus multi-month seasons which jade users and stagnate momentum. If I was a new token going to launch, I would airdrop an initial amount to users, then drip-feed a small airdrop every day or every week to new and existing users who are completing tasks such as championing the token or using products in the ecosystem.
And some answers as to why: don't give up a large percent of supply all at once. Instead, we can constantly drip it out, rewarding the most active community members of the project. It also gives you flexibility to adapt — which is also very important, because the market changes. Maybe it's good to pause the airdrop, maybe not. If a new protocol drops next month and I want Anom holders to use that because I think it will be net positive for everyone, I could airdrop to people using that protocol. He could tell you to do anything on-chain and then reward you with an airdrop. If an important real-life event happens next month, I want to do a marketing popup there. People organizing grassroots around that event — crypto and organization are the best technologies in the world for human coordination.
Yeah, I mean, that's super interesting. Let's see how this is going to be now with Robinhood. But you know, the biggest question with Robinhood chain is how long it survives. One commenter says Robinhood chain will last two weeks, then we return to Solana. I also think that's the likely outcome. But at the same time, to bridge a bit to Robinhood to test it out — why not? Especially that they are embracing memes. It is worth the time doing that.
As I said, it's a bit better than I thought, because in my mind, the way they talked about it a lot was real-world assets, real-world assets, man. If you do a chain for real-world assets, no one's going to be there. Who's going to come to your chain to do real-world assets? No one's going. If you do memes, man, we're here. We're here to take my money.
Look here — one commenter is saying Vlad is going to bring back meme coins. I guarantee we shortly see a bonding platform on the chain like Pump.fun and a plethora of tokens. Thereafter, users are then going to buy on Robinhood. This is probably the best advantage they have — the actual Robinhood app — and they can integrate a Pump.fun-like system into the Robinhood app and everything is end-to-end, massive distribution. So actually, the fact that they are pro-meme makes me positive on the chain. It's not a corporate chain purely for Wall Street stuff. In fact, it is meme-oriented, which is what we care about in crypto.
I mean, listen, it gets more engagement. And if they can take that and marry it to the Robinhood distribution, it could be powerful. But then again, you remember we discussed — as soon as Kim Jong-un or someone a bit problematic in the media starts using the chain, it's going to be a big problem for Robinhood.
Zcash Ironwood Pool Formally Verified
Guys, welcome everyone who's watching live. We have a lot today. Now, we have some news from Zcash. The new Ironwood upgrade is being formally verified to rule out all undetectable counterfeiting bugs, up to the underlying cryptographic assumption. So this is very important. They basically have formal verification that no new Zcash can be created in their upgrade.
Because you remember a few weeks ago — maybe a month ago — there was this drama that potentially there was counterfeited Zcash created in the old pool. The way you can use Zcash in a confidential way or not: when you use it in a confidential way, it enters a so-called pool. The old pool had a problem because it's confidential, but there was a bug where people could create new Zcash. It's unknown whether that bug was exploited, because it's all confidential. But they fixed it by basically freezing that pool and letting everyone migrate to the new pool — the so-called Ironwood pool. So if some kind of coins were counterfeited, created out of thin air, they would be detected upon the migration to the new pool. The old pool basically got frozen. You can only migrate to the new pool, and so only legit coins could be taken out and migrated to the new version.
And now the new pool has been formally verified. You can verify yourself mathematically. This makes undetectable counterfeiting bugs in Zcash mathematically impossible going forward. This was the biggest trade-off in private money before, and Zcash has solved it. Interesting, interesting. So the fear about Zcash coins out of thin air is resolved. It's mathematically resolved now.
Now looking at the chart — where is the trend? It's a bear trend. Looking at the daily — we are also in a bear trend. But yeah, as it comes back here towards these levels, it starts entering bullish trends. If you are more eager, you can even go to the hourly. It's actually now potentially a bull trend, but now going to be a bear trend, so be careful.
But you know, trading across different time frames — whatever time frame you are most comfortable with — just know that in the next bull market, this question of whether there are counterfeit Zcash or not is not going to be a question. Ideally, we need Bitcoin bullish, then it's a long time for all the altcoins to Valhalla, including Zcash, because the counterfeiting problem is not a problem anymore.
Pancake Swap, Binance Chain, and Pump.fun
Look here — Pancake Swap is listing all kinds of stocks: Alphabet, Qualcomm, Coinbase. If you use Pancake Swap on BNB chain — I don't use it myself that much right now. What happened to Binance chain? What happened? Was it the regulators that told them to take it easy with the chain, or did they kind of give up on it? You remember in 2020, Binance chain, man, it was so big. Everything was on Binance chain — stablecoins, memes, everything. There was so much on Binance chain. Now I don't know what happened, guys. I don't know what happened. It's a ghost town.
Pump.fun dumping Solana because they know that if we don't go bull trend, it will go to $30. They probably know what to do, to be fair. They always dump. In total, Pump.fun has sold 794 million at an average price of $170. So they know when to exit. They know the trend, guys. They know when to exit. When Solana was super bullish and high, they hoddle, hoddle, hoddle. As soon as it's bearish, dump, dump, dump. Average price $170. Not bad. Not bad.
Kraken Court Victory and SEC Safe Harbor Rules
Kraken got a $22 million award from the Delaware Court of Chancery. Basically, it's compensation for financial harm inflicted by a coordinated campaign to cut crypto off from banking, auditors, and other essential services. Very important. It's good that rule of law is coming back, because just a few years ago with the Biden administration it was very bad. Just getting a bank account if you are crypto was very hard. Getting access to an auditor was very bad. I mean, I remember PwC — they got a tantrum and they just offboarded all crypto clients. This was after FTX. After FTX, they just offboarded everyone. Now, probably they're onboarding again. So now Kraken is getting compensated. Very good. Very good.
Also here, the SEC is to release proposed crypto safe harbor rules in July. This one is very interesting. Basically, a way to know for sure that you're not going to have any trouble with the SEC if you follow clear rules, which is what it should have always been. But you know, again, with the Biden administration, it was very bad. Again, we're not a political channel, but when something is clearly super bad for crypto, we need to be upfront with it. The last administration was super bad for crypto, and not only crypto — also AI, also tech. I don't understand why they made such a political decision, because it was basically anti-tech, anti-startup, anti-most things that we care about.
Now they're pro. From what I've heard, now they're pro-crypto, which is good. But the last administration was crazy, man. The SEC said Tuesday it will introduce its long-awaited crypto rulemaking as soon as this month, bringing the agency a step closer to establishing a regulatory safe harbor for certain crypto activities in the US. An updated SEC agenda for 2026 has the rule penciled in for a potential July release — to deliver on President Trump's goal to ensure that the US is the crypto capital of the world. We are embracing innovation to bring more products onshore, creating clear rules. Good.
I don't know exactly what the rules are going to be, but I hope it is — listen, if you do a memecoin, not a security, we won't even bother. That would be fantastic. For example, or you do a coin with revenue share, we don't care — the revenue share is not a security. Fantastic. Or if they care, they say exactly what to do. Okay, come to us and register.
You know, before, when Gary Gensler said "come and register," it meant: come, tell me what you do, tell me everything you do, I will find the weakness, I will sue you. It wasn't a good-faith "come and register." "Come and register" was basically: hey, let me find some weakness in your structure that I can attack. That is what "come and register" meant. I think Brian Armstrong from Coinbase said that — you come to him, you want to register, he sues you, because now he knows everything about you. He asks you a few probing questions where he can sue you, and then he gets full information about you that you just gave him, and next you're sued by the SEC. So a massive change, massive change. And this administration has delivered on that.
I mean, on the other hand, we did see Trump extracting — how many billion — three billion from the Trump meme coins. There's a bit of pro and con. But to be fair, you yourself had to buy the Trump coin to get wrecked in it. And your demise is at your own making. You don't have Bulmania. You don't know the bear trend. You hoddle in a bear trend. So I have a harder time feeling sorry for the Trump coin holders, because it's pros and cons. Everything is pros and cons. Trump administration is pros and cons. Okay, people got wrecked in the memecoin, but I've been telling them about Bulmania, about the money line, about trends for so long that I'm not even sorry. Like, how much should I tell you guys? Don't hold in a bear trend.
People get wrecked in Trump's slow bleed. It has been slow bleeding since like two years now. Okay, you still hoddle it. It's your fault. Literally your fault. But the pro we get is a regulated, easily regulated, nice industry in the US for crypto. So I think, to me at least, this is a net positive. But yes, if you hoddle Trump and you don't have mechanical rules, very, very bad.
Prediction Markets Under Pressure
Now, someone who is not getting too much help from Trump are all of these prediction markets. They are somehow not vibing — they keep losing everywhere. They keep losing. They are under attack. They're under media attack, they're under government attack. Everyone is against these prediction markets, which is interesting, because I would assume that people in power would like prediction markets — they can do some stuff there on prediction markets that they could not do before, if you know what I mean. You create a wallet, you do some stuff there, a bit anonymous. You say you have some information.
So they're getting hammered, the prediction markets. Kalshi — which is non-crypto, right? I mean, Polymarket we all know, but Kalshi I haven't used. Anyway, what has happened here is that a federal judge denied Kalshi's motion to stop New York from enforcing its laws against the platform. Major, major loss for Kalshi in the financial capital of the US, with likely knock-on effects in other cases.
Near Protocol's Confidential Intents
When it comes to new tech, we have a new protocol launching — confidential intents now generally available, bringing Near's confidential execution infrastructure to all builders. So if you build on Near, you can now do, for example, cross-chain swaps confidentially. You can go from Zcash to Bitcoin via Near, confidentially. The privacy renaissance runs on Near.
Let's see how Near coin is doing, because as far as I remember it wasn't doing too well. It entered a bear trend. Yeah, I mean, technically it's bearish. Still holding on a bit here. But yeah, be careful. It's a bear trend. Be careful. But we can still follow the news. We can still see all the greatness. And once Bitcoin goes bullish on the money line, once the bull market starts, then we'll go heavy into all of this great tech. Right now it's too early, man. It's too early. Still bearish, still weak, still too early. We need the best risk-reward. The best risk-reward is when Bitcoin is in a bull trend.
Secret Network Moves to Arbitrum
Also, Secret Network is joining forces with Arbitrum, and Secret coin is moving to Arbitrum. Six years ago, Secret released privacy-preserving smart contracts on mainnet before confidential compute was even a thing. Secret was right early. Too early, though. I mean, the problem is being too early. Timing is very important.
I mean, people made tablets before Steve Jobs also, you know. No one cares. You need to be Steve Jobs. You need to release the iPad at the right moment, in the right way. Execution timing is part of execution. So yeah, they were early, but business, industry, markets — they don't care that you're early. No one cares that you had the idea first. No one cares that you invented something first. Literally, no one cares. It's all about: do you make it big? Do you have users? Do you have adoption? Do you have stuff going for you?
So yes, you remember Secret. We were following Secret back in the day, but simply too early, too early. Another example — someone mentions Hyperliquid. When it comes to perp DEXes, they were not the first one to do on-chain perp DEXes, but they succeeded. They ensured that it's big.
Overbought and Oversold — Why the Concept Doesn't Work
Someone is asking if something seems overbought. No, no, it's not. Nothing is overbought. Like, if you are thinking in terms of overbought and oversold — for example, if you're thinking, "Oh, a coin has pumped a lot, so it must dump" — you're doing it wrong. You're literally doing it backwards.
It's one of the early signs of pleb brain: a coin pumped a lot and you say, "Oh, it's overbought, so it must dump." Or your coin that never pumps — you're thinking it's oversold, it must pump soon. But it never pumps. Things that are overbought tend to continue to be overbought. That's more likely than not. So that's why you need to follow the trend. Don't worry about overbought and oversold. It's not really a thing. It's not a thing. Instead, you need to see the trend.
A good example is DOT. Oversold for so long, and people say, "Maybe it's going to pump because it's been dumping so much. Holy crap, it's going to go to price discovery soon again." New all-time low. There you go. So yeah, don't think in terms of overbought and oversold. It's not practical. You cannot trade based on it. Of course, it's a concept — but is it practical? Being in crypto since 2013, it's not practical. You can trade bull trend or bear trend. You can trade that, guys.
Solana Seeker Returns
Solana Seeker — you guys remember Solana Seeker? I don't know where my Seeker is. I need to find it. We got the Seeker but then the bear market started and nothing really happened. But they say it's coming back — yesterday, July 7th. Complete quests, earn badges, and try top apps on the Solana Dapp store. There you go. Let's see if there's some airdrop or something. But I don't even have it now, so I cannot really participate. So if you guys get rich, let me know.
Solana's Bear Trend and Classic Resistance Retest
Solana is going to go to $30. It's classic, guys. It's classic. It dumped, retested the support, now going down. Classic. Textbook, textbook, textbook. But people don't want to hear it. "Solana is back. Solana is back." What do you mean it's back? It's just retesting. It's retesting the support which is now resistance. It's resistance.
I mean, it blows my mind. You know the stat going around that 80% of traders lose money. Very famous stat. But you know who they look at? Do they look at actual traders, or do they look at plebs who misunderstand what trading is? It's very normal to have support, you break support, and then you test it as resistance. It is as old as Archimedes. You remember Archimedes? He put himself in the bathtub, water went up, he was like, "Holy crap, I displaced water." This was how many thousands of years ago? Support and resistance, and testing the support which is now resistance — it's as old as that.
And by the way, guys, I wish I was born 2,000 years ago. Man, I could have invented all kinds of stuff. Because even when I was like three years old, I also understood that when you put yourself in the bathtub, the water will go up because you take space in the bathtub. Archimedes got remembered for this — Eureka. Okay, bro. I also knew. How old was he when he discovered that? I swear I was three years old and I also understood: if I put my rubber duck in the bathtub, the water level will go up because it takes space in it. I mean, I literally intuitively knew it. Making all of these discoveries 2,000 years ago — it was the heyday. It was the heyday of discovery. It was amazing.
Q&A: GTO, SpaceX IPO, and Stock Trends
Now let's go to Q&A — questions, answers, debates, discussions. And let's also see which trends we have in stocks — what went bearish, what went bull.
With the stock market, guys, now you have to look more towards what is flipping bearish, because things are shifting, especially in AI.
SpaceX has a daily trend finally. Very nice. And it's bearish. Very nice. Oh man. SpaceX — we played it so nicely, because you remember the FOMO, the hype. It was crazy. We said take it easy. Let it find equilibrium. Let it find supply and demand. When you set a price pre-market, it's a fugazi price. It's a private banker price. A private banker sets a price, so it's not low — it's as high as possible. And the chart is going down slowly, slowly, slowly. Maybe it's going to bleed here. Maybe it goes below $100. But yeah, always with IPOs you have to be super careful. Let it find equilibrium and trend. And now we see it's somewhere here at $150, which is basically the listing price, but momentum is down and you can probably get it cheaper. Should it go bull? Fantastic. The bull flip is not far away by the way — $159. Should it go bull? Fantastic.
Samsung just flipped bearish on the daily. SK Hynix just went bearish on the daily. Let me check the overall weekly trends. BTC bearish, ETH bearish, BNB bearish, Solana bearish, Hyperliquid bull since two months ago, up 67%. Very nice. Power of bull trend. Power and power and power of bull trend. Dogecoin down. Zcash fighting against the trend. Cardano — oh my god. What's happening, guys? What's happening? It's like DOT — price discovery soon.
Alibaba and the 200-Week Moving Average Filter
Someone asks: can you look at Alibaba? They are probably the cheapest AI stock in terms of valuation and they're also making their own chips. Let's see. Alibaba — bearish trend, around the 200-week moving average.
When you say cheapest in terms of valuation, that's good. If we go to stocks here, and we filter for near the 200-week moving average — guys, if you are part of Bulmania, this near-200-week moving average filter is chef's kiss. It's chef's kiss. Only buy stocks that are well-known and big. Don't buy random crap around the 200-week because it can go to zero. But Microsoft is not going to go to zero. And it is around the 200-week moving average now, which means deep value — big long-term moving average. Could still go lower because it's bearish, but if you accumulate here within the 200-week moving average, fantastic.
Saudi Arabian oil — fantastic, also near the 200-week moving average. Very nice. Anything close to the 200-week — fantastic. Netflix. What's happening? Netflix, so bad now. I mean, sometimes I try. Okay, let's have a cozy Netflix. Click Netflix. Click off Netflix. I don't know what they've done, guys. But anyway, if you're bullish, it is around the 200-week moving average.
Alibaba — I would say Alibaba makes sense because it is around the 200-week. When it comes to chips and all of that, probably it makes sense also. But primarily, it makes sense because it's a bear trend and it's been down a lot. And if it actually starts going above the 200-week, I would wait for the bull trend. You see here today they're going to go above the 200-week. To be super disciplined, you should wait for the bull trend. It's still very close to the 200-week anyway. And just, you know, with AI and China it could be an interesting play.
You have a big risk with government, though. For example, China is saying that they may block AI exports, and then this whole AI business needs to be reevaluated. So with Alibaba, as with many things — look here, China considers restricting overseas access to cutting-edge AI models. So you need to be super careful here because it's a highly political space, this AI stuff. But from a risk perspective, of course, around the 200-week moving average, especially if it goes to bull trend — very, very nice.
L'Oréal — you like washing your hair? L'Oréal, your wife's makeup. It's around the 200-week. It's been like that for two years though. Not too good of a chart. And it's a European one. I don't know what they're doing. France — these guys, they don't work too much. They don't have AC in some places. Their brain doesn't work because they struggle with AC. You know, if your worker has no AC, they don't work well. If they need to think, use the brain — no AC means they don't think a lot. Okay, for brain function you need AC. That's why when Singapore — when you look at the start of Singapore, they installed AC everywhere. They said, listen, for us to be successful — before they became the Singapore we know today, the successful city-state — they said we need AC everywhere. Good luck installing AC in France. So all these European charts, like L'Oréal and other French charts, normally bad. I mean, you literally see it in the chart. Unproductive.
Toyota. What's happening? Toyota around the 200-week moving average. Big fat pump, dump, 200-week moving average. There you go. I mean, Toyota is not going anywhere, guys. Toyota is going to survive here. Yeah, they're not going anywhere. So again, DCAing if you love Toyota around the 200-week, and especially if they go to bull trend here — I would also wait for bull trend because the bull trend is very close to the 200-week moving average. No need to rush. Just wait for it to go bull, then fantastic.
Fundamental Analysis vs. Following the Trend
Someone asks about Adobe. Let's check. Adobe is very far below the 200-week moving average. They have some real problems here, guys. It's super accelerating down. And will they be here in 10 years? I don't know. It's hard to say, because I switched away from Adobe a long time ago. Before, I was creating stuff in Adobe. Now I use Canva. I remember before, to do a thumbnail — I do them myself, I don't have any designer — but before I had Adobe Photoshop where I Photoshopped the Bitcoin logo every day and did the siren and the arrow. I was doing that in Adobe. Then when I was traveling, it told me I need to buy a license. Like, what do you speak about? Which license, man? And then I thought, okay, also it's so slow. It's this heavy, bloated, boomer-ass software that needs to run, that needs to start. I said, let's go Canva. Moved to Canva. Fantastic. It's the best. So just personally, I'm not using Adobe.
Someone is saying profits are still high. Maybe, maybe. But you need to look at growth. You need to look at growth in clients. If you want to do fundamental analysis, you cannot look only at revenue. Revenue can be misleading. For example, it can be a business — and this is why normally we don't look too much at fundamentals, just look at the chart, because the chart is telling you the fundamentals. It's telling you who does fundamental analysis — Wall Street does all of the fundamental analysis. They try to understand everything, and then they sell or buy, and you see in the chart the result of their research. So the fundamental is right here.
This is where the pleb trying to do research thinks he's a Wall Street analyst. He looks at revenue. Okay, the problem with revenue is that you can squeeze revenue from existing clients and make it look good. You can have a business that gets no new clients but just keeps squeezing and squeezing existing clients, and maybe is losing clients but overall keeps squeezing. That's very bad, but revenue will look good. So these things you need to analyze seriously. You need to look at account growth — how it was in the past, how it is now. Where is revenue concentrated or not? Another thing: if it's one client giving you all revenue, super concentrated, it's very bad. How is it spread out? The more it's spread out, the better. If it grows a lot and it's super spread out, it's very nice. If it grows a lot and it's one or two clients, very bad.
So there are many factors, and you could of course try to understand all of that, or you can just look at the chart and see: Wall Street, for some reason, is not buying. They do fundamental analysis, they do all of that, and they're not convinced. And who am I here to do some pleb analysis, some wannabe Wall Street analysis?
By the way, if you want, you can do pleb analysis also. We put a button here — if you go to stocks, if you go to Adobe, we added a Yahoo Finance button. You can go here, you can look at EPS ratio, you can do wannabe Wall Street analyst stuff. You can check the PE ratio. Is it high or small? You can do it, but don't think you're Wall Street. You are a pleb larping as Wall Street, and you will likely miss so many key details you don't even understand. So that's why for the average player, trend is your friend. Don't be wannabe Wall Street — unless just for fun. Okay, I mean, the reason why we added this link to Yahoo Finance is just for fun. You could check it here. Just know your weakness. It's about knowing your weakness — that you are a pleb that doesn't know too much. But the trend is your helper in this dangerous world of trading. It's not dangerous if you know the mechanical rules and you have the trend. If you don't have it, it's very dangerous.
Then for fun, you can larp a bit. You can say, "Oh, PE 12." Then you go with your bros. You can discuss how Adobe has a PE of 12. Maybe another company has a different PE. You can check the financials — revenue, bam, bam, bam. You can say, "Oh, look here, revenue growing." Okay. Cost of revenue also growing. Then you and your bros can analyze: is it good? Is it bad? What's happening? Anyway, guys, you get the point. Don't larp Wall Street unless it's just for fun. Follow the trend. That's it.
Biotech as the Next Sector to Watch
Jason says biotech. Yeah. Biotech is massive. So biotech also — yes. It's potentially the next one. We have here in the stocks the categories — biotech. Check here. Very important. Very important in terms of the stock market. Yes, it is potentially the next one.
Closing Thoughts: World Cup, Iran, and Oil
Guys, thanks a lot for being here. Thanks a lot for contributing to the chat.
After the World Cup, we have to be a bit careful in case Trump wants to do more with Iran. I think he's been missing Iran. He's been missing the drama with Iran. He couldn't really do too much now with the World Cup because it's in the US — he needed to be calm. But World Cup — when it's over, we may see a bit of motion, we may see a bit of a situation.
Actually, guys, it's happening. It's happening. Someone in the chat says the ceasefire is over. Man, okay. He didn't even wait for the World Cup to end. He waited for the US to be eliminated, and for him the World Cup is over. Fantastic. Let's see — oil spiking. Okay, guys, it's a perfect cliffhanger for the next stream.