New Zealand motoring expert advises caution amid EV rush triggered by Iran oil crisis
Chelsea Daniels interviews motoring expert Clive Matthew-Wilson on the New Zealand Herald's The Front Page podcast.
Motoring expert Clive Matthew-Wilson joins the New Zealand Herald's The Front Page to warn that the surge in electric vehicle interest following the Iran oil crisis, which has driven EV registrations up 116% year-on-year as of April 12th. Matthew-Wilson argues that most people rushing to buy EVs are making a potentially costly mistake, warning that the majority of current EV manufacturers will not exist in ten years, leaving owners unable to get parts or service. He identifies only three manufacturers he considers likely to survive — Toyota, BYD, and Tesla — while describing Tesla's products as unreliable and poorly built despite their role in popularising EVs. He also raises unresolved concerns about battery recycling, the affordability gap for average New Zealanders, the limits of EV adoption as a short-term solution to fuel insecurity, electronics reliability as a greater practical concern than battery fires, and the failure of Auckland's public transport infrastructure as a barrier to reduced car dependence.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Introduction and the EV registration surge
Chelsea Daniels: Kia ora, I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is The Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. It seems the ongoing uncertainty of whether pumps will dry out has got people thinking greener. As at April 12th, there were 5,137 EVs registered this year — up 116% from the same time last year. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are at an all-time high, up 75%. And hybrids are up 5%. These kinds of numbers haven't been seen since the clean car discount post-lockdown boom in 2023. Sellers and auction sites are reporting hugely increased interest in zero-emissions cars, with good reason — a typical EV might cost you as little as $10 to $15 to fill up at home overnight. But before you COVID-style panic buy an electric vehicle, it might pay to do some homework first.
Today on The Front Page, motoring expert Clive Matthew-Wilson is with us. So, Clive, tell me what you've noticed lately about the talk around EVs, hybrids, and things like that.
Clive Matthew-Wilson: Well, it's obviously become a huge issue since the Iran oil crisis, and people are rushing out to grab the nearest EV as a way of getting to work but also solving our dependence on oil. It may not end as well as people think — that is, the EV rush — but history will show who's right.
Chelsea Daniels: So I shouldn't sell my car immediately and run out and buy an EV tomorrow?
Clive Matthew-Wilson: Well, you should do what you want. But the reality is, first of all, there are — I forget the exact number — but it's dozens and dozens of makes and models, most of which didn't exist until very recently, offering up bargain EVs. And nobody — I'm a professional car reviewer — I have no idea how these are going to last in the long term. I don't even know if I would confidently predict that the vast majority of companies currently selling EVs will still be in business in ten years' time.
Chelsea Daniels: Which ones do you think will survive?
Clive Matthew-Wilson: We did a lot of discussion and came up with three that are probably too big to fall. That is Toyota, obviously, and probably the Chinese company BYD — because it's too big to fall. In other words, the Chinese government wouldn't let it fail; it would be too humiliating, and they've built an entire industry around that company. And Tesla.
Why Tesla is described as a flawed product despite its influence
Tesla makes garbage products, and I wouldn't buy one with my own money. The American Consumer Reports — which is a gigantic organisation that tests consumer products — rated Tesla as the least reliable used car brand.
Chelsea Daniels: What makes it a garbage car?
Clive Matthew-Wilson: They were thrown together by someone who didn't know how to build cars. They contain a lot of clever stuff that a geek would find really attractive. But the reason cars — even electric cars — still contain a huge percentage of the same type of components that were in cars 100 years ago is that those components are not exciting, but they've been proved to work. Tesla tried to make a very clever car, and most of Elon Musk's claims about self-driving, reliability, and range turned out to be nonsense.
He's wonderful in the sense that he legitimised electric vehicles as an everyday purchase, and he sold the whole planet on the idea that a luxury EV was the coolest thing to have. But we're at a stage with EVs like the fossil fuel industry was with cars 100 years ago. Car companies came and went like party invitations. Most of the people that used to make cars 100 years ago — you couldn't even recognise the name. The ones that made it big were the ones that popularised cars and made them for the masses. Henry Ford took an expensive rich man's toy — which is what cars were then — and turned it into a moderately reliable vehicle that any working person could afford. And the Chinese are doing that brilliantly right now. You don't need me to tell you they're going to dominate the market for the foreseeable future.
What determines whether an EV company survives
Chelsea Daniels: When it comes to how many companies are selling cars, what do you think makes or breaks your decision?
Clive Matthew-Wilson: Well, most people buy on price and, to a certain extent, reputation. But half the companies selling electric cars didn't exist five years ago. You can go back to your granddad's Ford and have a sense of history about it. Tesla was around five years ago. Toyota has been around for a long time. BYD is another very recent company, although they're now the world's largest electric car company. But the majority of them have just sprung up because the Chinese government is replacing property with car companies as a way of sustaining and growing the Chinese economy. And they're doing the same to the West as the Japanese did during the 1970s oil crisis, which saw the Japanese take over as the dominant force because America had focused on gas guzzlers without any plan B if the oil supply stopped.
Battery fears, fires, and electronics reliability
Chelsea Daniels: I know that in the beginning there was a lot of talk and worry about EV batteries, particularly when buying secondhand. Tell me about that. Have those fears been alleviated?
Clive Matthew-Wilson: First of all, in terms of fires — EVs do catch fire, not very often, but remember they're all pretty new, so who knows about the future. When they do burn, they really burn, and it's a major concern for fire brigades all over the world. Batteries do fail — and if you're talking about a Tesla, you're talking about the price of a new car to replace the battery. But the main problem is actually electronics. Hyundai and Kia — the same company — had problems with electric car fires caused by the battery controller. If you're running an electric car, how you charge it and how you discharge it has to be precision controlled, and the electronics that control that give a lot more trouble than the batteries themselves.
So if someone says an electric car is far more reliable because it's got fewer moving parts, that's simply not true. They're getting better, and the Chinese are doing amazing things with them. But if you go around New Zealand, there are plenty of 30-year-old Toyota Corollas that have never had a major repair, and nothing's come close to that. And in terms of saving the planet — most taxis in New Zealand, as you know, are Toyota hybrids. Those things are regularly doing 500,000 kilometres without a major repair. They're really pretty good for the environment. And right now, for a person on a budget, I'd say they're the best kind of middle way between what you can afford and what you want.
Full EV versus hybrid — which is better for city living?
Chelsea Daniels: That brings me to my next question. I've heard differing views on whether, if you go EV, you should just go full hog and get a full electric vehicle, or whether a hybrid is just as good. Would you save on fuel just as much with a hybrid if you're doing things like city living?
Clive Matthew-Wilson: There are very few Japanese second-hand import electric cars for the simple reason that most ships won't carry them — they're too much of a fire risk. So you've got new ones or you've got older hybrids. You can go out and buy a not-so-easy-to-steal version of the Toyota Aqua, which is one of New Zealand's most popular cars. The upmarket versions are not easy to steal. The cheap ones are, because people trust each other in Japan — imagine that. You buy one for $10,000 to $15,000. There's no electric car available for that price. And you've got a reasonably good chance of getting a pretty long-term reliable vehicle. They give exceptionally good mileage and exceptionally good reliability as a rule.
The scale of transitioning New Zealand's vehicle fleet
Chelsea Daniels: I guess in terms of moving our entire fleet over to electric, that's not happening tomorrow, is it?
Clive Matthew-Wilson: No, and it would bankrupt the country if we tried. In terms of light vehicles, the total vehicle fleet is about five million, but in terms of light vehicles it's about four and a half million. A tiny percentage of those are electric cars, and most of the ones available for sale come from companies that won't exist in ten years' time. Even if we replaced hundreds of thousands of vehicles with electric cars, the reality is it's going to take until about 2040 — most people say — to make a significant difference.
Chelsea Daniels: Well, I can't imagine there's even enough stock for us to put a huge dent in our car fleet anyway.
Clive Matthew-Wilson: That's right. And they've got to come from China or wherever they're coming from, and those ships move at the pace of a bicycle. To put that in perspective, the oil that's just arriving now was sent out on tankers just before the Iran crisis — that's how long it takes to get things around the planet. There are probably an awful lot of people fighting for the same electric cars right now, and the whole thing is messy.
It's like getting married — marry in haste, repent at leisure. I would buy something that's going to get you through the interim, take a deep breath, and if we're not in the middle of the Third World War, then maybe look at all your options. I wouldn't rush out and buy an electric car right now.
It might interest you to know that the majority of New Zealanders never buy a new car. It's a complete myth that the white middle class in Wellington on high salaries can just go, "We'll buy an electric car." Most people can never afford it. And those that do — apart from rich people, businesses, and organisations like councils — they're mostly pensioners. It's their final car. So even if people wanted to, they probably couldn't right now.
Norway as a case study — and the moral contradiction
Chelsea Daniels: Are there any countries that have actually pulled this off and gotten more EVs in?
Clive Matthew-Wilson: Yeah, Norway has done it brilliantly — and they earned the money to buy the EVs by selling oil. You can do the moral maths on that one.
Chelsea Daniels: That's a double negative, isn't it?
Clive Matthew-Wilson: Well, it's a bit like sponsoring an orphanage through armed robbery. It's the same kind of moral code. And one of the consequences of a lot of very cheap EVs is that people are not using public transport. I think it would be great when I get too old to drive if I could just press a button and the equivalent of an Uber bus — a small one, not a big bus — takes me where I need to go. Be like London, where you just don't need a car.
Whether the current EV surge represents a genuine turning point
Chelsea Daniels: We've seen an incredible uptick in EV registrations this year — we haven't seen anything like it since 2023, and you know what happened in 2023: the clean car discount. Do you reckon this is a turning point, or would the turning point have been when the discount came in?
Clive Matthew-Wilson: No. The discount was a really dumb idea made with good intentions — the road to hell is paved with good intentions. But every study everywhere in the world showed the same thing: the people spending $70,000 or $80,000 on a Tesla were already perfectly capable of buying that Tesla with their own money. Now those vehicles are secondhand. I would not inflict a used Tesla on a poor South Auckland family. A Toyota Prius, yes — that would be a good choice. But the green discount vehicles were just a waste of money that should have gone on things like public transport.
Chelsea Daniels: What about now, though, when there are more affordable options? In 2023, the guy in Remuera getting a Tesla would get a discount. But what about now when you do have other options?
Clive Matthew-Wilson: I'm not so sure the majority of people do have those options. They say the cheapest one's only $29,000. Do you know how hard it would be for a large percentage of Kiwis to get their hands on $29,000 right now? In five or ten years' time, there'll be a lot of cheap used EVs of varying quality, and that will make a used one much more accessible. But they're actually still really expensive compared to what the average New Zealander can afford. I know people who have never spent more than $5,000 on a car in their whole lives, and they're in their 60s.
The people that make these decisions live in Wellington and virtue-signal their way down Lambton Quay on a bicycle. To put this in perspective — someone said to me, and I haven't checked this, but they said Auckland is about the same distance across as the distance between Wellington and Palmerston North. Trips that are very simple in Wellington are actually really complicated in Auckland. And the Auckland public transport system is effectively run on behalf of a few very cosy international corporations who scoop in literally billions and provide what I consider to be a laughably inept public transport setup — which is why virtually everybody in Auckland has a car. Even my friends, like me, who care about the environment, they turn up saying they're going to just use public transport and a bike. And that little fantasy disappears within a few weeks.
Which EV manufacturers are likely to disappear
Chelsea Daniels: You mentioned that you reckon some EV manufacturers won't be around in the next ten years. Which ones are they?
Clive Matthew-Wilson: I don't know. If I knew, I'd warn you. The Chinese government around 2010 realised that, A, the air in their cities was appalling, and B, there was an incredible opportunity to dominate the world's car market because they could see all of this happening. They're smart.
Chelsea Daniels: And Tesla's success as well.
Clive Matthew-Wilson: Well, Tesla was barely going then. It was the first luxury EV model. EVs before that were little boxes — curiosities invented by university professors. But Elon Musk made EVs cool, and suddenly everybody wanted a Tesla, and nobody thought very much about whether this was what they actually needed or wanted or what we should be doing.
So the Chinese government set up an amazingly efficient system for processing all the materials needed to make electric cars and left the rest of the world completely behind. Toyota's new electric car has a BYD battery made in China. BYD was smart. But the Chinese government knew perfectly well that the majority of the electric vehicle companies they were sponsoring were not going to last, and they're completely comfortable with that because they believe in survival of the fittest. There have been 400 EV companies go out of business in China in recent years, and an expert quoted in the New York Times said that of the 128 currently in existence, about 14 will be financially feasible by 2030. So if you buy one of the winners, that's great. If you don't, and they don't answer the phone anymore, you might have just done your dough.
Chelsea Daniels: And then the issue would be that you can't get it fixed or get parts.
Clive Matthew-Wilson: That's exactly right. Everything is specific to that vehicle. A vehicle like Tesla — Tesla could go broke tomorrow, but so many clubs exist, so many experts exist, so many people have worked out ways of fixing them that the factory couldn't do, that you would still be able to get service. But the rest of them haven't been around long enough. And most of the companies currently offering electric vehicles with strange names — they won't be around in ten years' time, and neither will a lot of the names you may have grown up with.
The unresolved problem of EV battery recycling
Chelsea Daniels: In terms of what we do with the batteries — I'm assuming the world now knows how to recycle old diesel cars. What do they do with the electric ones?
Clive Matthew-Wilson: We don't know yet. It's sort of like, "La la la, I don't want to talk about that." If you look it up, you'll find they are examining systems for long-term green recycling of electric vehicle batteries, and you get people using them at their bach to power the house and all this optimistic stuff. But if you want the cold, clear, here-and-now answer: they don't know what they're going to do with them. And there's a second problem — by the time they get the systems all in place, there'll probably be a different battery technology that they have to deal with.
Chelsea Daniels: So that's a problem for the next century or something, I suppose.
Clive Matthew-Wilson: I organised the Save the Whales concerts for Greenpeace. I've been a supporter of green causes since the 70s. But there's a really important green principle called the precautionary principle. You don't just put a nuclear power station next to a kid's school and go, "She'll be right." You act as if it's going to give problems.
It's great that electric cars are coming along and finally becoming, as I predicted, just affordable. If you're going to buy a petrol car or an electric car, they're getting so close in price that many people will just choose the electric option. That's great. But what we do with them when they get old — the question is kind of met with people looking the other way and shuffling awkwardly. Nobody has that answer.
Yes, you can see a room — usually quite a small one — where they're shredding electric batteries, and they'll tell you all the things that can be recovered. They've got some good trial systems going and they'll get better with time. But the hardened cynic in me says it's also quite likely that all those batteries will end up being shredded and processed at the outskirts of some village in the Philippines and poison all the people in the process. To me, I would say: show me how you're going to recycle the batteries, and then you can bring them in. Call me old-fashioned.
Chelsea Daniels: Thanks for joining us, Clive.
Clive Matthew-Wilson: You're most welcome.