New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon survives a caucus confidence vote but questions remain over his margin of support
Chelsea Daniels interviews NZ Herald Chief Political Reporter Jamie Ensor about Christopher Luxon's confidence vote.
Summary
Chief Political Reporter Jamie Ensor joins The Front Page to discuss Christopher Luxon's decision to put his leadership to a confidence vote within the National Party caucus. Luxon survived the vote following a caucus meeting that lasted somewhere around two-and-a-half to three hours — far longer than the usual hour or so — but notably declined to claim unanimous or full support from his caucus, and left the subsequent press conference without taking questions. The vote was conducted by secret ballot, meaning the precise margin of support may never be publicly known, particularly given that Chief Whip Stuart Smith was absent from Parliament on the day. Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters publicly stated that calling the vote was "a very bad move" and warned there would be consequences; when asked directly why New Zealanders should have confidence in Luxon as Prime Minister, Peters added pointedly that he would "put my economic management record up against his any day of the week."
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Luxon calls and survives a caucus confidence vote
Chelsea Daniels: The Prime Minister has initiated and survived a motion of confidence as National Party leader. After about a three-hour caucus meeting, Christopher Luxon read a short statement out to media before leaving without taking any questions.
Christopher Luxon: Looking out at the world today, it is clear that we are living in uncertain and volatile times. And that underscores the importance of strong economic management to steer New Zealanders through this time and provide the security that they deserve. A free press is important in a democracy. You give citizens the chance to know the truth about their countries and their governments and hold leaders like me accountable. And I welcome that. But if the media want to keep focusing on speculation and rumour, I am not going to engage.
Chelsea Daniels: This all comes after weeks of speculation about whether his performance during the Iran fuel crisis, mixed with poor polling, would be enough to get him kicked out of the Beehive altogether. So does Luxon actually have the full support of his caucus? Will this quieten leadership rumours? And what will it mean for the election? NZ Herald Chief Political Reporter Jamie Ensor was in amongst all the action today. He joins us now on The Front Page.
So first off, Jamie, tell me about the events of today.
Jamie Ensor: Today started very early. As is traditional on Tuesday mornings, MPs come from across the country to Parliament for the start of the sitting week. But of course, there was a whole bunch of interest in the National MPs who were arriving, particularly the backbenchers. They've got a crucial vote — just as important a vote as a frontbencher, a minister — in any sort of vote that goes down at caucus. So we really wanted to speak to them. And we had some good chats with backbenchers arriving at Wellington Airport, at Parliament, all of them professing loyalty to Christopher Luxon this morning ahead of that crucial caucus meeting.
One thing that was unusual about today is that Christopher Luxon wouldn't do media before going into the caucus meeting. Normally what happens is he comes across the black and white tiles at Parliament on his way to the caucus room, stops for about ten minutes, speaks to the media about the issues of the day, then continues on. But we were told that he would instead be speaking after that caucus meeting. And it became quite clear why that was. That caucus meeting ended up going for about two and a half hours, which is far longer than most caucus meetings usually go.
We were all camped out around the corridors, keeping an eye on what was going on. We saw people coming and going, trying to figure out what that might suggest. And then finally, at about 12.30, or just after 12.30, the Prime Minister and Deputy National Leader Nicola Willis left the room. They disappeared down a bit of a corridor, and we were told a few moments later that they would be fronting a press conference, which they did — in the Beehive Banquet Hall. That press conference was, from my time in this place, relatively extraordinary in how blunt the Prime Minister was. He said that he had the confidence of his caucus, he said that he had put that to the test, he had gone to a vote, and that he had essentially won that vote.
What was notable about that statement, though, was that he didn't say that he had the full support of his caucus, he didn't claim unanimous support. Though it should be noted that a number of MPs have told us since that it was a secret ballot, so only the person who was counting it — who is traditionally the whip — would actually know how many votes the Prime Minister got and whether there was a number that voted against him or voted that they didn't have confidence in him.
How the leadership speculation escalated
Chelsea Daniels: There are obviously always going to be naysayers with any government. But when did these more pointed rumours of a coup start to come up?
Jamie Ensor: You're right, there's always going to be a disgruntled MP or two within a political party — that is completely normal, and people gossip and put out rumours all the time. About a month ago, there was a Taxpayers Union Curia poll which came out showing National down into the twenties. That really started to stir up some of the speculation. We started hearing from MPs who were really concerned about their positions, really concerned about the future of the National Party. But the Prime Minister at that time put it to bed. He went on Newstalk ZB and said that he wouldn't be standing down. He addressed some of that speculation and things moved on somewhat.
But in the weeks since, we have consistently heard rumblings of unease within the party. And then last Friday, the New Zealand Herald published a story which highlighted that some MPs, some sources, believed there would be some sort of move potentially against the Prime Minister in this current sitting block, this current fortnight. Within that story, it was also revealed that sources had told the New Zealand Herald that Chief Whip Stuart Smith had heard about caucus unease — he had heard about some dissatisfaction within the caucus — and that he had attempted to contact the Prime Minister about that, to flag that drop-off in support. But the Prime Minister and he hadn't spoken; the Chief Whip, Stuart Smith, hadn't been able to get in touch with the Prime Minister.
That story really propelled some of that speculation. We started hearing from MPs who pretty much said that something is likely to happen, and it was kind of a watch-this-space situation. And then we saw what happened today.
Luxon's media attack and the basis of the reporting
Chelsea Daniels: You mentioned that his stand-up was pretty blunt and he didn't take any questions at the end of it. He also took aim at the media for persisting with questions around his leadership. What do you make of that? Because let's make this quite clear — the media doesn't make these things up. There were whisperings, and there were people coming to the media with concerns, right?
Jamie Ensor: Entirely correct. In our story last Friday, we cited three sources that had spoken to us about the situation with regards to Stuart Smith. That later actually grew to four sources — we heard from another source who mentioned the same thing, who was aware of that situation. So our reporting is based on source work, and we speak to a lot of people specifically across this Parliament, across the party, to hear them out, to hear what they believe is going on and to hear what they think is going to happen in the future.
So to the Prime Minister's comments this afternoon at that press conference — he suggested that we were indulging in media speculation, that we were focused only on that issue. But it should be absolutely noted that we can continue to report on the issues of the day — the fuel crisis, the cost of living crisis, the geopolitical developments of the day — while also highlighting what is going on in what is the biggest parliamentary party. It is the party that provides the biggest number of ministers in the government. It provides the Prime Minister. So talking about the leadership of the National Party is really important to our democracy. New Zealanders will want to know that that party is stable, that the party of government is stable, and that is very much what the intention of our reporting is.
Chelsea Daniels: Do you reckon he's just taken a look at what David Seymour does with the media, and how Winston jabs at the media as well, and thought, oh, I'll give that a go?
Jamie Ensor: Yeah, potentially. It is something that we're seeing more and more often. Donald Trump loves to do it. He has that sort of back-and-forth relationship with the media, and potentially that is a new style for Luxon. We'll have to wait and see whether he is consistent with that over the coming days. He said he won't be engaging in those types of questions going forward. But ultimately, it'll be interesting to see whether he can sustain that. He is going to have to speak to media. He walked away from questions today, but he is going to actually have to answer some of those questions when we see him — probably tomorrow, Wednesday afternoon. We'll see how he decides to respond. Does he say no comment? Does he ignore those questions? Does he engage? We'll see if this is an ongoing strategy for the Prime Minister.
Winston Peters' warning of consequences
Chelsea Daniels: Well, speaking of Winston Peters, he said that holding a vote was a very bad move and that there will be consequences. What sort of consequences might he be meaning?
Jamie Ensor: Mr Peters — also very blunt in what he says. In terms of what consequences there could be, what he was probably trying to signal is that often when this sort of thing happens, these types of confidence votes and leadership votes, even if a leader survives, it often just leads to another one down the track. Unless a leader can come out and show that they do genuinely have the unanimous support of their caucus, that support often continues to ebb away and you just go back to the same place within a few weeks. And I believe that's probably what Mr Peters was referring to with those comments.
He made it very clear that he didn't believe this was a smart move by Christopher Luxon, and he believed there would be consequences. He didn't identify exactly what those would be. But Mr Peters continued to say that he wanted to bring stability to his government, that that's what his focus would be on. We'll see if Christopher Luxon is able to bring stability both to his own party and to his government.
Chelsea Daniels: Why should New Zealanders have confidence in him as the Prime Minister when, on a day that business confidence has plummeted, the confidence he seems to be fighting for the most is the confidence of his own MPs?
Winston Peters: Well, because I'd put my economic management record up against his any day of the week.
What the length of the meeting suggests
Chelsea Daniels: What do you make of the fact that the meeting went on for such a long time? Does that indicate things potentially weren't as rosy for Luxon as he'd like us to believe?
Jamie Ensor: Potentially. We've spoken to some MPs since that meeting and they very much described it as robust. So you can probably presume that there were some strong feelings, some strong arguments put forward within that meeting — and that's probably normal in this sort of situation. You're talking about the prime ministership. You do want everyone to be able to put forward their views, because you want to try and get it right both for the party and also for the country. For that meeting to go on for so long definitely shows that something was discussed, something that required a lot of back and forth. These meetings typically go for about an hour, maybe an hour and fifteen minutes, depending on the events of the day and the issues that need to be covered. So a two-and-a-half-hour meeting is definitely not the norm around here.
The secret ballot and Stuart Smith's absence
Chelsea Daniels: You mentioned that there's no indication of what the voting margin might have been. Do you think we'll ever find out?
Jamie Ensor: Potentially not. These ballots, I believe, are only counted by the whip. It should be noted that the Chief Whip I spoke about — Stuart Smith — he wasn't at Parliament today. That was unusual in itself. You would think that he would be present for a caucus meeting. The Prime Minister's office provided a statement from Mr Smith which said that he was at a long-standing personal appointment. Now, that in itself has been debated — the credibility of that statement — as he had told one media outlet last night that he was unable to get to Wellington due to the weather. We went and waited around the airport this morning; he didn't arrive. There were definitely flights coming in from the top of the South Island, which is where he is based. But because he wasn't here, the duty would have fallen to someone else. We're not entirely sure who that person would have been, but it's very possible it's that one individual who will know the number, and potentially no one else.
Behind the scenes in the press gallery
Chelsea Daniels: Give me a little bit of behind-the-scenes, Jamie, because you see these live blogs and you see kind of haphazard photos of people just walking past or people not commenting at all — it does look quite chaotic from this end. What's it like actually being in the scrum?
Jamie Ensor: I think chaotic is the perfect word. If I can run you through my day — I was at the airport at about 6am this morning waiting around for different flights, speaking to MPs who were coming through the different gates from various locations. We were waiting for Stuart Smith in particular. He never showed. I got back to Parliament and pretty much the entire press gallery was camped out on the black and white tiles, which is a central area within the Parliament. That is very rare. Even though the press gallery goes to various events, it's quite rare to have that number of people — nearly the entire press gallery — in one location focused on one thing. Some were at different doors, looking down different corridors to see who was coming and going. We saw some MPs come out of the caucus room to go to side rooms, maybe to the toilet, to look at their phones — the phones have to remain outside of the caucus room.
Chaos definitely ensued at the end when we saw Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Deputy National Leader Nicola Willis leave the caucus room and go into a little side room, which we believe provides some sort of exit for the pair so they can get around the media. And it was an extraordinary scene of — I would say probably twenty journalists running down a corridor trying to figure out where they had gone, trying to get them to answer questions. I personally haven't seen anything quite as chaotic in my career, and I think that speaks to the stakes of today, the stakes of a potential — well, a confidence vote on the National leader. We didn't know which way that was going to go at the time. Eventually, though, everything came out. We had that press conference, as you saw. It was an extraordinary press conference. There were no questions, and that is pretty remarkable in itself.
What comes next — and whether Luxon is safe
Chelsea Daniels: Do you think today actually signals that, no matter what he does, no matter how long he's going to be in this leadership position — come November, is there still the potential for another vote like this? How safe do you think he is?
Jamie Ensor: There's always a potential for another vote. The Prime Minister will be hoping that he has drawn a line in the sand, that he has projected to the public that he has the backing of his caucus, that he has essentially told his caucus: look, I have the numbers, you need to move on if you've got any concerns. But as I said earlier, these sorts of things have a natural cycle to them. People will go away, they'll be angry at how things played out today, they'll be angry if they didn't get their way, and they may potentially continue to chip away at the Prime Minister. They may continue to speak to the media. They may continue to white-ant the Prime Minister — what that means is putting little things out to the media that aren't so attractive for the Prime Minister. And that may lead to another vote down the line.
One thing worth mentioning is that, as we reported last week, even though there are a number of people within the National Party who are anti-Luxon, certainly at the time we were reporting there was no formal challenger. There was no one person out there who was going to challenge the Prime Minister for the leadership. And so it may just be the case that the numbers aren't there for a challenger, and those people who are against Luxon are simply waiting for that to change.
Chelsea Daniels: Thanks for joining us, Jamie.
Jamie Ensor: Thank you.