Krown analyzes a rare Bitcoin macro cycle signal and scans traditional stock setups
Krown, a crypto and macro market analyst, presents a solo video on his channel.
Summary
Krown presents an update on a long-term Bitcoin macro signal — a crossover between the 21 EMA and 55 EMA on the 10-day timeframe — which has historically coincided with or closely preceded Bitcoin cycle lows in 2014–2015, 2018–2019, and 2021–2022. He notes this signal has just confirmed on the current candle close, though he stops short of calling a definitive cycle low, citing the 2022 FTX episode as a precedent for black swan deviations. On the short term, Krown is mildly bullish on Bitcoin provided it holds above the 68,300 midband, with a target around last week's highs near $74,000, but sees the broader picture as rangebound between $60,000 and $80,000 for an extended period. He also covers traditional markets, noting SPY remains in a corrective posture below the 6,900 level, and identifies three stocks — defense ETF symbol X, generative AI ETF CAT, and Circle (CRCL) — as positions he is watching to buy at lower entries during this correction.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
The Bitcoin 10-Day EMA Crossover Signal
Krown: In past videos we've spoken about a major macro signal that has effectively fired off around or on Bitcoin macro lows for all previous cycles. I wanted to provide a big update on that for today's video because we are seeing the next move essentially from that. I wanted to go over what that looks like, then go over some Bitcoin short-term price action, and then perhaps if we do have time, go into traditional markets — because the S&P is still kind of rolling over, and I do want to go over a few of the stocks that I'd be looking to buy assuming that this correction does have lower to go.
Anyways, first things first. I'll start off with that big signal here for Bitcoin.
The 10-day timeframe has effectively confirmed the cross between that yellow 21 EMA and the green 55 EMA right here. Historically, that has led to a pretty uniform response — actually, in some ways maybe a little bit surprisingly so.
If we go back to the genesis of Bitcoin, or at least go back to the first instance we saw of this on Bitcoin, that was from the 2014–2015 cycle right here. You can see that that same moving average crossed right here and was effectively confirmed on this precise closure — which was the low. That was quite literally the low for that cycle. Bitcoin kind of tested around that low a few more times, certainly spent nearly a year around that low, hovering above it without doing anything major to the upside. But if you were looking at it on the confirmation of that cross, that effectively was where the low was.
If we go over to the 2018–2019 cycle, we get a similar response. We get that same cross right here, and when that was confirmed, it was on — I know it's going to look like maybe one candle before that, but technically they were not crossed on the prior period. They were officially and verifiably crossed on this period that I just highlighted. And what was that? That was again the low of the 2018 cycle. Perfectly on the dot.
The 2021–2022 Cycle and Current Confirmation
Krown: Then of course we go to the 2021–2022 saga. This one is a little bit different, and I think there is a decent explanation for it, but the conclusion is more or less the same. And by the way, I'm not necessarily calling a low right here — I think there are still a lot of things that need to happen.
You get your official cross confirmed right here. That was on that first major move down to that 200 simple moving average on the same 10-day timeframe. And if you would have fast-forwarded from there — one, this would have been phenomenal value for a long-term investor. If you're a short-term trader, this is not relevant. But if you're long-term, fast-forwarding five years out from now, probably good value.
In this case, yes, it was not the exact low like the previous two cycles. However, I would argue that this wick low right here was certainly the lowest traded price before what some might consider the FTX black swan — which was this price action over here. Some people might look at that as a black swan deviation. In which case the assumption is that tactically speaking we should kind of ignore the specifics of that price action in favor of just a general trend, similar to how we look at the March 2020 COVID dump from way back when. Whether that was precisely on the low or not, I think it's secondary to the point — long-term value-wise, that's a good entry.
I want to be calling these things out for the long-term investors on this channel because I know there are more and more people switching into that mode. I've started switching to it as well. I think it is the natural evolution for anyone who is getting what they want from trading and then needs somewhere to put that income. Trading is for income, investing is for wealth and wealth management.
In this case, we did see that official cross on this current close. Bitcoin is not even close to that 200 simple moving average, which does concern me a little, but I would say the low $60,000 territory is very good value long-term. That's the way I look at it. I did buy in the low $60s, full disclosure. Am I open to Bitcoin wicking a little bit lower? Yeah, absolutely. Maybe if it does go for an official test of that 200 simple down around $54,000–$55,000 on a quick wick. But ultimately, if I'm thinking long term, I'm happy to DCA here and happy to DCA a little bit lower as well. This signal is not to be interpreted in and of itself — you can combine it with many of the other things we've looked at on this channel — but it is what it is.
Bitcoin Short-Term Price Action
Krown: Moving on from there, going into the short-term timeframes for Bitcoin. As long as Bitcoin is above the midband, which is 68,300, I'm still looking for at minimum the lower end of this blue box to be hit at $71,750. Does it happen today? Does it happen tomorrow? I don't know. But I would be expecting at least a wick up around there. And if things do continue, my personal bias is that we'll see the upper red band effectively around last week's highs. That's still kind of my area of interest in the short term for Bitcoin on this rally.
My personal opinion is that this is not going to be a runaway rally. We're not going to see Bitcoin explode to $85,000–$90,000. Extremely unlikely. I think at best, even if you want to be the biggest Bitcoin bull in the world, you're waiting a long time. Look at these previous lows as well — from the cross to the actual low in one cycle took like four or five months. In the 2018 cycle it was on the low, but even from that low turning back into a nice move to the upside took two to three months. And in 2014–2015, it took eight to nine months after hitting that low to really get that next momentous move to the upside.
My point is we're waiting. If you're bullish, you're very likely waiting a long time right now. It's going to get more and more boring, which I know is hard to visualize for many people because it already has been pretty boring. There's very little interest in this market. Bitcoin is not the hot thing anymore. Crypto is not the hot thing. Everyone's talking about oil, gold, silver, commodities in general — that's where things are going on right now. And to a lesser extent traditional markets; it's actually the private market where things are really popping off.
Short-term, I'm basically just looking to buy the upside into that range right there as long as Bitcoin is above that midband at 68,300. Closing below the midband on a daily timeframe, I would switch to looking for another flush down to $60,000. Maybe Bitcoin does flush out toward the 200 simple at that point — definitely possible. All cards are on the table here. But it would probably be a quick move. Until that happens, I'm still looking for the completion of this upside move, understanding that it is very likely rangebound.
The Corrective EMA Cross Setup
Krown: On top of that, we still have the corrective setup outlined here. This is simply: when Bitcoin is in a downtrend, if we see the cross between the red 5 EMA and the yellow 21 EMA, we get a minimum corrective move to the green 55 EMA. If you had repeated that over the past ten years every time it happened, you would have gotten some decent results — not optimized, but okay.
We do not have that cross as of right now, but you will see that cross if Bitcoin finishes today on CME specifically above $71,200 — which is about $400 away from current price. So if you see a closure above that number today, that would be my next validation for a move higher. It's very likely going to hit at least last week's high at $74,000 and change, and then maybe even all the way up to the green 55 EMA — so between about $75,000 and $77,000 is where I'd be looking if we get that cross. It's a long day left to go, though. Must close above $71,200 for me to validate that move higher in the short term.
Traditional Markets: SPY and Stock Watchlist
Krown: Moving on from there, going into traditional markets. SPY continues to slink its way down. The validation of a reversal back to the upside — meaning it's fine to be bullish again — is still the same as before: 6,900. The breakdown point on the rejection and confirmation of that silver cross to the downside is a good invalidation point at effectively 6,900. As long as SPY is below there, I'm looking for this correction to continue to move sideways and down.
There are a few stocks I'm actually interested in. The main names I'm looking to pick up are things I've mentioned before. Some of them I own, some I do not.
Symbol X — I do not own this one right now. I own many other defense ETFs but not this one, which has actually been, funnily enough, the best performing one. The best way to fix that is to make a new decision. I do think this one is still correcting, and down around the 21 EMA at $260 is kind of where I would have liked to get it. If we get a full-on washout on some crazy news, I'd be looking somewhere down around the $235–$240 region. Those are my areas of interest. Until then I'm sitting and waiting. It's still an uptrend right here, but I think it's going to break down a little bit personally.
The next one is symbol CAT — a generative AI and technology ETF. It's a narrative play right now, and I do like this consolidation on new all-time highs. This one I don't think I can be as greedy with in terms of getting good entries. If I did get somewhere down around a high or mid $50s handle I'd be very happy with that. Right now this one is fighting a little bit stronger compared to the others, still putting in another higher low right at that $60 number. I might be being a little too greedy here, but overall this is something I'm looking to pick up more of on this correction.
Circle (CRCL) — The Most Anticipated Setup
Krown: The last one, which is probably the most important and one we've spoken about a lot on recent live streams, is symbol CRCL — Circle. This one makes a lot of sense to me because it seems like the Trump administration is really leaning into USDC becoming a major stablecoin and part of the financial backbone for US dollars. If that's true — or not even if that's true, if just the perception of that is true, which it is — then this is probably going to do quite well.
I don't like it right here, though. I'm not willing to invest in it right here. We did see it have a really phenomenal move to the upside — it went from about $50 to $120, more than a 2x move really fast. Something's going on. But do I think this is the runaway rally where it just goes to $200 and beyond without a major correction? No. Almost every reversal in every market begins with a higher-timeframe higher low. In this case we don't have that. The weekly timeframe doesn't even have bullish divergence right now. So I'm not seeing anything that is indicative that I need to rush into this position.
I do think this one will find a lower high in the short term on the weekly timeframe, very likely come back down over the next couple of weeks. I'm still looking somewhere between $60–$70 as where I'm most comfortable. That is also a major gap fill coming in from the February gap up, which was at about $64 — really anywhere around there is fair game in my opinion. That is where I'd be most interested in playing a position because managing risk at that point is very easy. Technically the fibs are at $95, $86.50, and $77.80 — I don't like any of those prices. I want to see a big pullback into a higher low. That's where I'm interested. It might be that I miss this one completely — that's always a potential situation — but that is where I'm comfortable investing in something like this.
Closing Summary
Krown: So yeah, that's pretty much it for today. Bitcoin short-term is still a little bit biased to the upside — somewhere around last week's highs still, I think, is quite likely pending that cross. If we get that closure above $71,200 today on CME, I'm going to look at that as validation that Bitcoin is going to hit last week's high and maybe slightly higher by a couple thousand bucks. But I would not get greedy with this move. I don't think this is going to be a massive move to the upside anytime soon. At best I think we're ranging between $60,000 and $80,000 for a while — and that would be considered good.
Traditional markets are still corrective as long as SPY is below 6,900. It's had its chance and is showing a bit more weakness in the short term. For me, this is an opportunity once it does find that next low — that is where I want to pick up some of those stocks mentioned earlier.
Promotions and Closing Remarks
Krown: Anyway, that's where we'll end things for today. So that's where I'll leave things. As always, we will be back tomorrow with another live stream. Other than that, wishing you the best as always. Take care, much love, and see you soon.