Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair: implications for crypto and AI
Solo presenter Rob from Digital Asset News covers Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, August's Bitcoin performance, and crypto security risks.
Summary
Rob from Digital Asset News breaks down Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve Chair, noting that while Warsh spoke extensively about AI and innovation, he made no mention of crypto or digital assets. Warsh's hawkish stance — rejecting forward guidance in favour of real-time data and emphasising the Fed's dual mandate on inflation and employment — leads Rob to assess roughly a 60/40 probability of a rate hike at the September 16th meeting, which could weigh on market sentiment. On the positive side, Bitcoin's August return of approximately 24% makes it the third-best August on record, behind 2017's 67.3% and 2013's 26.48%, with Rob noting this aligns with four-year cycle patterns. Rob also covers a significant data breach of France's tax administration affecting 678,000 individuals, with stolen data allegedly being sold to criminals targeting crypto holders — underscoring the dangers of KYC data exposure. The episode also features an extended discussion of tokenisation of real-world assets such as houses and corporate debt, prompted by a viewer comment questioning the risks of putting physical assets on blockchains. Finally, Rob announces a 20-hour charity livestream scheduled for the following Thursday (September 3rd), aiming to raise $200,000 for Amigos de los Animales, a Puerto Rico animal shelter that lost its lease after three decades of operation when its founder Audrey — who had donated her family home to the cause — stepped back due to burnout. Rob details the fundraising costs involved, including land purchase, shipping container infrastructure, and utility setup, with approximately 30 guests confirmed from across the crypto media space.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech: No Forward Guidance, Hawkish on Inflation
Rob: The new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, just had a speech at Jackson Hole, and I have to tell you, it is not positive for crypto and digital assets. I wouldn't really say it's a net negative, but if you're into AI, it definitely was.
So today — Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair — this was his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chairman, and it really comes down to a couple of talking points. I thought it would be more of an innovation-specific discussion, which it was, and we actually talked about tokenisation, which it also was — but it has nothing to do with crypto or digital assets.
So just real quick, this is what it came down to, and this is why we are seeing more of a push and a trajectory toward a rate hike, unfortunately, at the next meeting in September.
Here's what we have. Warsh came out and pretty much said — call it an outline, call it whatever he wants, just don't call it forward guidance. The former chair would come out and do dot plots and all types of models and talk about what is potentially going to happen in the next two, three, or six months. Warsh is saying he's not going to do that. He's not going to give anybody forward guidance. He's just going to come out and talk about the data that is currently available. He wants to stick with data that is current — not going into the past, not relying on a lot of different surveys that just don't really work out. He wants to revise everything the Fed Chair is doing. He doesn't want the Fed Chair to be looked at as a source of forward guidance. That is essentially what he said within the first five minutes or so.
This will be an interesting quandary for traditional markets, and also for us, as we try to see where things are going. But really, if you take a look at what he's saying, he does want to go through innovation. He didn't talk about crypto at all. He states: "I'm not waiting to introduce innovations at the Fed to make us fit for purpose. Transparency and communications about future policy decisions is not a virtue unto itself."
Warsh wants the Fed to lean more heavily on real-time data and trends. I have to agree. I think this is a very important thing — instead of looking retrospectively, let's recognise that we are in the 21st century. This is 2026. Why are we going back to all these different surveys and data points that we aren't getting in real time? Let's step into the times and see where we're actually going. So for this one, I have to agree. Work in that general direction instead of being a laggard. He states: "Yesterday's news has a way of getting mistaken for what is happening right now." He's right.
Warsh's Hawkish Stance on the Dual Mandate
Rob: Living up to his hawkish reputation, Warsh is committed to reaching both the Fed's 2% inflation goal and maximum employment — that is the dual mandate. Make sure a lot of people are working. Make sure inflation is set at 2%. It's been above that for quite some time, so let's see if they can pull out some magic.
He states: "Price stability is not self-executing, nor is inflation necessarily mean-reverting. I do not believe that the Fed's dual mandate works at cross purposes. After all, high inflation itself is very harmful to economic prosperity."
What does this mean? This essentially means that Warsh is going to look heavily at how much money printing is actually going on and the levers that have to do with inflation. Because of that, I think there's going to be a little Fed rate hike. We'll see if this actually comes through. Maybe he doesn't. But the bigger part of this whole speech was his reliance on and discussion of AI.
Warsh on AI: Productivity, Labor, and Token Sales
Rob: Again, nothing about crypto per se. He did state this as far as AI: "Will the application of AI cause a significant sustained rise in productivity across the economy? And if so, when?"
Warsh kind of believes what I believe. I was around before computers. I was around before the internet and all that great stuff. And I can tell you, when computers came on, we all thought it was going to wipe out everything. Then when the internet came on, it was like, "Oh, this is going to wipe out everything else." And it never did. What it actually did was make people more productive — to get more things done more efficiently. The people that embraced computers, the internet, SaaS — software as a service — those are the ones that thrived. The ones that didn't, the ones that said they wanted to stick to the old norms, it didn't work out too well for them. When we embrace these things and incorporate them into our day-to-day, we become more productive, which is better for the economy and actually better for ourselves.
As Warsh sees it, the impacts of new technology will be a net positive for overall price dynamics and the labour market. His task force on productivity and jobs will be leading the charge on AI. Warsh has previously said that AI is among the best things to happen to the US economy.
That is essentially what he talked about in roughly a 39-minute speech. There were some points where he did talk about tokens, but it's not tokens for crypto or digital assets — he's talking about tokens for AI. That's all he was talking about. This runs from roughly the four-minute mark to the six-minute-twenty-five-second mark. He said: "Users buy tokens to gain access to these models" — the models being the large language models: ChatGPT, Grok, Claude, which is the one I use. "Annualised token sales of two leading labs are more than $100 billion. Will token usage be complementary or competitive with labour? We don't yet know."
All he was talking about was AI. So if you look at this, you might think to yourself: we've got everybody talking about AI, we've got China embracing it and the US embracing it, there's a new cold war going on and a race to the finish line for AI, and now we've got the Federal Reserve Chair and all these companies coming in. Maybe this might be something to potentially invest in. Let me know what you think about that in the comments. I wouldn't call that a negative — I would call it a neutral type of thing.
Bitcoin's August Performance: Third Best on Record
Rob: Let's talk about some positive stuff. August. I have to be honest — when I created the thumbnail and the title, the monthly return on investment for August was at 27.2%. As it was updating, it dropped down to 23.99%. So that would make it the third-best August on record. The best August was in 2013 at 26.48%, so technically this is the third best. The tippity top of the monthly return for August was in 2017 at a whopping 67.3%, and here we are at a measly 24%.
But I would like to direct your attention to a couple of things. First of all, when we take a look at this whole row and add up the averages, August is one of two months that are typically red. Usually it's negative 0.2% to plus or minus 23% — very volatile. And then the next month, September, is usually the big whammy: maybe a plus five, but maybe 13% down. Now, does that mean that's what it's going to do? No. I'm just saying over the years that's what has happened.
But I would like to say this: what do you remember about 2013? I don't remember much, but 2013 — if we take a look at four-year cycles — that was a great month at 26%, and that was the all-time high year for the four-year cycle of 2013. The next one would be 2017: great month, August at 67%. And this only happens, well, usually only happens around those times. Also, the fourth-best August was 2021 at 12.37% — also an all-time high year for the four-year cycles. And then this month is looking pretty good as it pertains to the four-year cycle, although this is not the blowoff top — this is one year after. So things are changing a little bit in the four-year cycles. We'll see how it all plays out.
I still believe we're going to see a little bit of a downward trajectory going into October and November, but I've been wrong before. This is why I dynamically dollar-cost average every single Monday and buy Bitcoin. I'm also buying some altcoins because I believe altcoins are going to outperform. My personal choices — and you can find the link in the description — have always been Binance, Ethereum, Solana, Tron, and maybe a little Kanto and also a little Hyperliquid. But I'll leave it up to you to decide what is best for you and your portfolio.
August so far is pretty good. But over the last hour or so, we've just seen it go from almost $80,000 — this is around 11 a.m. — went from $79,607 and just bottomed out to $77,131. I wonder if that was because of the speech. I don't think it was that bad, but here we are at $77,000. Let me refresh that. No, it didn't go to a million like Samson Mow was talking about. $77,900.
France's Crypto Data Breach and Physical Security Risks
Rob: Just to finish up real quick — we're still doing pretty well as far as the bull market support band. We are above that still, even though we took a little bit of a dip downwards. Moving averages — we're still way above the 200-week. We are still just at the 150-week. The next stop is the 100-week, but maybe the next stop will be the 50-week. That's kind of an inversion. Interesting.
And lastly, be safe out there. Because I believe that in the next couple of years, Bitcoin and specific altcoins — not all of them — are going to run like crazy. But it doesn't matter what you make; it is what you keep. And it does you no good if you're in France. Let me explain.
The French government — I cannot believe this is a thing — disclosed this month that hackers breached its tax administration and extracted data concerning roughly 678,000 individuals and businesses. The stolen data reportedly includes names, addresses, income, and property information. Whoopsie.
Why is this such a big deal for France? It's because France accounts for 33 of the 52 verified wrench attacks globally. For some reason in France, they love wrenches. What is happening is people are getting kidnapped, people are getting extorted, people are losing their crypto because there are thugs that go to their address and say, "Hey, we have your address. We know that you, Bobby, have $1.7 million in some coin and we want it."
And here's where it gets interesting. French prosecutors have also accused a tax employee who works for the government of using government databases to identify crypto investors and sell personal information to criminals involved in physical attacks and extortion. So again, KYC really should stand for "kill your customer," because once you have all that information in there — and it's inevitable you're going to go through that process — this is the issue. It's not how much you make; it's how much you keep. And if you're doing all the hard work for the scammers and the wrench attackers, congratulations — they did absolutely nothing except extort you and come to your house and rip you off.
Diversifying Storage and Protecting Your Assets
Rob: So what do you do? There are a couple of things. First of all, if you're going to diversify your investments like I do, you can do that — it's up to you. You should also diversify your storage. I use iTrust, I use Tandem, I use Ledger, and now I'm into the ETF stuff, which is pretty good.
And don't be like the Cold Card situation — which I have to ask you guys: did the folks at Cold Card ever initiate a public apology to everybody after they lost all that Bitcoin? I'm just curious if that actually happened. If you don't know what I'm talking about, there's a link in the description for a video about Cold Card. Cold storage of ice — certain individuals lost all their Bitcoin. They did everything right. So anyhow, this is what BlackRock and Strategy use: Coinbase Prime, which is what iTrust is using. And then you've got an IRA — you can use Bitcoin or gold. You've also got the ETFs and traditional stocks, which is pretty great. IRAs accumulate over time. Barbell strength — like, my Roth IRA is up $100K in three years. Trust me, if they're going to keep debasing the currency — which they will — everything will go up in price. So that means you should actually get into something where you don't have to pay so much in taxes. That's how Peter Roth did it. And as a reminder, you can also get staking rewards in your Roth IRA and do traditional equities over at iTrust.
Tokenisation of Real-World Assets: Viewer Discussion
Rob: Yesterday we talked about tokenisation of real-world assets — not only stocks but treasuries, real estate, and corporate debt. I thought tokenisation of those was a pretty great thing. But there was a comment yesterday, and I read them all — they're pretty great. This was from user 77654-whatever, but it was a good comment. He says: "Oh yeah, I can't wait to tokenise real-world assets so people will lose their houses and cars and software and SIM cards — not just the money they put into crypto, but any asset they put onto blockchains."
So the question for the next bear market: would you tokenise your house and put that on the blockchain? Would you tokenise your company's debt or your company itself and put it all on the blockchain? Or do you think this is just a blowhard thing? Let's talk about that.
Live Chat Q&A
Rob: Bot states there's a new all-time high in kidnappings — last year was 45, now there's 53. And these are the ones that are reported, mind you. I don't know how many things are going unreported. I remember when I used to work in home healthcare a long time ago, taking care of elderly patients, and we would get the call every so often that people got ripped off — they lost their money to some Nigerian prince that they sent all their money to and stuff like that. But there was a survey or study that came out showing that over 80% of all hacks and scams were never reported because the people didn't know where to go. My question is: how much is underreported, and how bad is it going to get?
Kimpatu says Warsh ain't raising rates. I hope Kimpatu is right, because the next meeting is September 16th. In that time frame, we're looking at roughly a 60/40 split for hiking rates 25 basis points. If we see a rate hike, I wonder what that would do mentally for the market.
I must remind you that about two years ago, people said that if Strategy and Saylor ever sold any of their Bitcoin, it would collapse the market — because then people would have no trust and their confidence would go down. We've seen it happen routinely now that Strategy is selling to cover stretch and to have more coffers in reserve as far as cash goes, and it didn't really move the price one way or the other. Actually, the price went up the last couple of times. So I wonder if, even if we get a rate hike, whether the traditional market will react in a prolonged manner, or if they'll just say, "Yeah, there'll be a pullback and then we'll see a big run-up with AI." I don't know. Look at Nvidia — they crushed their earnings and then after-hours markets went down like four to six percent. Of course, it bounced right back as soon as markets actually opened up. But markets are a finicky place. That's how it goes.
T Woo says if it passes, Trump and the Democrats cannot trade crypto. I wonder how that's going to work, because there is the STOCK Act where, essentially, per quarter, if they invest into traditional equities and stocks, they have to report it. And then what happens — this is always funny to think about — they say, "Whoopsie, I forgot to put that in my filing. I'll just do it this time." It's like, you know, it's the first quarter, so let me just pay that $5 fine. It's the cost of doing business. If they make it so that if you invest into crypto you're immediately disbarred or impeached, then that would be something. But I doubt that's ever going to go through. Corruption's all around and that's how it is. I miss the days when politicians would just shut up and do the corrupt stuff in the background where I didn't hear about it. We knew it was going on, but now you've got more people in office who are just like, "I'm going to do this right to your face. What are you going to do about it? Nothing."
Cali says they're really glad to hear the plan to buy and set up a shelter the animals can keep. That's the most longevity and sustainability. Because here in Puerto Rico, there's a statistic — I think it's over 800,000 stray dogs on the street or something like that, and the population is about 3.2 million. So roughly a third of that is stray dogs.
Do Green Blue has a good point: let's just have the trades reported instantly. We can do that. What if you could have — there's that Pelosi tracker, and I get it that Nancy Pelosi is not the genius trader; it's her husband who just happens to beat all the hedge funds and the S&P 500. Anyhow, that would be pretty great if we could have: okay, you guys can trade whatever you want, we don't really care, but if you do it, you've got to put it on the blockchain and we're going to tokenise these assets. So if you buy Nvidia or if you buy some industrial war complex company at 2 o'clock in the morning, everybody's going to know about it because they'll track it on the blockchain. That would be something. I'd like to see that.
Wow — six to nine million stray cats in Florida. You know what did a great job? I think it was Poland or Denmark — one of those two actually eliminated stray dogs. The way they did it was heavy fines for leaving dogs alone, heavy fines for chaining up dogs, and then a massive push for spay and neutering programs. Made sense to me.
Charity Livestream Details and Guests
Rob: So, spread the word about next week. We're going to have a bunch of people on. If you're familiar with Big Pay or Peyton — he's more of an ADA guy but he's been switching over to Cardano — he'll be on. We'll have Robin Kreger, the flip-flop flipper here in Puerto Rico. Also Smart Money Tracking will be on. Jarro will be on. FD White. I'm reaching out to Roger Ver — I'm waiting for him to get back to verify or not. That would be interesting. Ben will be here. My friend Andy, who does all the different things that have to do with Bitcoin mining for the individual — he will be here, and that's going to be a good one. Mark Poler, who is a lawyer as well as a CPA specifically on taxes — he's really great for how you want to save money and not pay so much in capital gains tax. Then I reached out to Anthony Scaramucci — the Mooch — he will be in Italy and can't make it, but we've got a deal between us. That'll be good. Looks like maybe James from Invest Answers, DB Crypto, Randy. I've got to reach out to Nick from Coin Bureau. James from Metal Law Man. Peter Brandt just said straight up no, not going to work for him. And then Jimmy Wong and maybe a few others. So that's a lot of people — those are the ones I can remember — and we'll probably get at least 30 in here and just talk about a bunch of stuff.
Animal Shelter Fundraiser Background
Rob: So here's the thing about the shelter. When you lose your lease, it's difficult here in Puerto Rico for almost everybody to pick up roughly 60 to 70 dogs and put them into a new location, because it really has to be built for that. When you lose the lease, you also have to be zoned in the correct business district, because it's not like you can go to a residential area and just move 70 dogs in. It doesn't work like that. So you need to buy the land — that's a big cost, roughly between $40,000 to $60,000. To build the actual infrastructure, the cheapest way to do it is shipping containers. Shipping containers are going to cost you between $3,000 to $7,000 each, and they're going to house roughly 7 to 10 dogs. With that, you're also going to have the cost of transportation, the cost of fabrication, and the cost of electricity, water, utility services, and everything else on top of that — gates, and so on. When you add all those things up — I'll put it in a PDF or just put it in the description — that's how everything will break down. And then of course you also have staff to pay, a whole new agenda to deal with, and you have to have vets because the animals have to go in and get evaluated. That's the process.
Also, because we have a drought in Puerto Rico right now, we're going to need self-filling water tank systems that collect rainwater, since we're running out of water. Kind of a big thing.
How or why did they lose their lease? So it was done in conjunction with the person — her name is Audrey — who actually created Amigos de los Animales. After three decades, she said, "You know what, I am burnt out." I have the utmost respect for her. She took her family's home and for 30 years made it into an animal shelter. She essentially donated it and lived there the whole time. She's getting up in age and she just can't deal with it anymore. If you did that for your house that you bought and paid for, and you had up to 100 dogs at some point, and you're getting into your late 60s or early 70s, there's a point where you're just like, "I just want to live my golden years out." Not hearing yapping dogs all the time, not having to deal with the negativity that goes along with an animal shelter — when do we euthanise, when do we go into surgery because this dog has cancer, when do we do all the fundraising, everything else that goes along with it. So she just said, "I can't do it anymore." There's a new board of directors, a new direction, and that's why we're doing this right now the way we are.