Digital Asset News host Rob discusses Trump's banking license, Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, and broader economic concerns
Solo presenter episode from the Digital Asset News channel covering crypto market trends, Trump-backed banking developments, and US economic indicators.
Summary
Rob, the host of Digital Asset News, covers several interconnected stories across crypto and macroeconomics. The central news item is the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's conditional approval of a national bank charter for World Liberty Financial, the Trump-backed crypto firm, which issues the USD1 stablecoin — currently the fourth-largest stablecoin by market cap at $4 billion, ranking behind Tether, USDC, and one other stablecoin. Rob also revisits Bitcoin's 200-week moving average as a potential accumulation signal, drawing comparisons to the 2018 and 2022 bear market cycles, and noting that in 2022 Bitcoin ultimately fell through the 250-week and 300-week moving averages as well. He closes with a series of economic concerns: Gen Z redirecting investment funds to sports betting (52% according to one cited source), rising credit card delinquencies (13% of balances 90+ days overdue), grocery price inflation up 33% since 2019, US strategic petroleum reserve levels falling below 300 million barrels for the first time since January 1983, a looming fertilizer shortage tied partly to supply chain disruptions through conflict zones, and the national debt approaching $40 trillion.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin's 200-Week Moving Average and Bear Market Cycle Comparisons
Rob: Things seem to be repeating yet again from 2022 into 2026. And there's a new player getting a bank — that would be Donald J. Trump, and it looks like this will be World Liberty Financial. Today we'll take a look at what's happening.
We've been talking about this for quite some time — the 200-week moving average as the trend line repeats. This was covered by Cointelegraph, an interesting article, but we've talked about this 200-week moving average and how Bitcoin is just barely getting into it right now. As of today, the 18th of August, we are just — and I mean just — below it. Actually, in the last 30 minutes or so we went above it. So we've been playing around with this line for quite some time, and I think this is going to be one of those times where people say, "I wish I would have got a little bit of Bitcoin."
It could go lower, as everybody is predicting. All of a sudden four-year cycles are in vogue and everybody's saying this is obviously what it was all along. We'll see if it comes into October and then potentially November. October 6th, 2026 would be one of the lowest points if we just repeat the four-year cycle. But as a reminder, the 200-week moving average — buying here at $59,000, $58,000, $62,000, somewhere around there — is not a bad thing. I know people are calling me a little bit foolish to buy every single Monday, but that's what I do. Based on the risk levels, I either increase or decrease my amounts. Since Bitcoin's been going down, I've been continuing to increase those amounts every single Monday.
As a quick reminder going back to four-year cycle timeframes: the 200-week moving average wasn't even hit in 2018. We didn't fall below it — we actually just kissed it. But look at that beautiful price of $3,210. Maybe some people were waiting for the 250-week moving average or whatever, and they missed it — and that's okay, nobody's perfect. But would you be okay with buying at $3,210? Or how about the high price of $4,260 in that same period? Or maybe if you weren't a genius like everybody else, in November you could have gotten in at $6,370 or somewhere around there. Some people would say, "Well, I bought it at this ridiculously high price of $6,400," but you could have bought it lower.
And then also, reiterating what happened in 2022: we went below the 200-week, then the 250-week, then the 300-week moving average, to prices of $17,000, $16,000, $15,000. But again, if you were just following the trends, it wasn't a bad time to accumulate. Let me know what you're doing in the comments section.
Trump's World Liberty Financial Receives Conditional Bank Charter Approval
The big story: the Trump bank. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has granted a conditional approval for the Trump-backed World Liberty National Trust Bank. This has got to feel pretty great for Team Trump.
Now, people would say, "Rob, this is a conflict of interest." I'm not going to debate that. I'm just telling you what's happening. There is this thing called our sphere of control — what we can actually handle, what we can do, and what we can move forward with or not. This is probably going to go forward. A sitting president of the United States will likely be using some influence to get a bank in his name.
Here's what's going on. World Liberty Financial CEO Zach Witkoff said the company wants to build the most trusted and widely used digital asset in the world, while strengthening the role of the US dollar across the global economy. Think about that for a second — to strengthen stablecoins across the world, which would then strengthen the dollar. As an American, that sounds pretty good. I have dollars in my bank. I don't have euros, I don't have francs, I don't have pesos — I only have dollars. So if this happens, any American would say that's a pretty good deal. However, I understand the argument that a sitting president doing this is a conflict of interest. Well, they're doing it, and that's pretty much what's happening.
Early this year, World Liberty Financial created a new trust company in order to secure a banking license from the OCC that it said would allow it to offer stablecoin issuance and redemption, on-ramp and off-ramp services, and custody and conversion. World Liberty Financial issues a stablecoin called USD1, which has a market cap of $4 billion. That's not chump change — it's pretty significant. It ranks as the fourth-largest stablecoin after Tether and USDC.
Now it makes sense why our president is the crypto president and why he was so keen on the Clarity Act passing. The GENIUS Act already passed. The Clarity Act — we talked about this — I didn't think it was really going to pass because nobody wants to give the Trump administration a win, especially in the midterm years. But maybe it'll come out. Who knows? I just don't see it happening. That would explain a lot.
World Liberty Financial said it also plans to serve institutional customers such as market makers, exchanges, and investment firms. And as a quick reminder, the World Liberty Financial token is only down 78% from its all-time high. That's not a joke. Take a look at your altcoin — how much is it down over max time or over just a year? There are a lot of altcoins down 70, 80, 90%. This is nothing new.
You would think the news would pump the price, but it's up a whopping 1% in 24 hours. Congratulations, Team World Liberty Financial. Looks like you are going to be a national charter bank, and we'll see how that works out for everybody.
Trump to Meet with Crypto and Prediction Market Executives
There's also a meeting with heads of digital asset companies and institutions kicking off Wednesday. Donald Trump is set to attend a meeting with crypto and prediction market executives. The event kicks off discussion, and the very next day is the first meeting of the CFTC's new innovation advisory committee.
Here's who's in attendance: Coinbase, Robinhood, Kalshi, and Polymarket, among others. Regulation, digital assets, and prediction markets will be discussed according to the committee meeting agenda. This president has a lot on his plate.
US Economic Concerns: Debt, Credit Cards, Grocery Prices, and Energy
I hope we all realize just how poor the economy actually is. People will say, "Well, the markets are great." The markets are not the economy. This is what concerns me.
From Eric Balchunas: Gen Z is moving money from stocks to sports betting and wealth plans. 52% of them have redirected investment funds to sports betting, and a quarter of them treat sports betting as a deliberate part of their long-term financial plan. If you thought memecoin traders were gamblers, it looks like an entire generation is doing nothing but gambling. Hopefully it works out for them, but there are problems afoot.
Frank Luntz talks about how 13% of all credit card balances in the United States are currently overdue by 90 days or more. Do you have any idea how much you're paying in interest rates and late penalty fees for that? That's a serious problem. You should be keeping very low credit card balances.
On top of that, there's the ongoing situation — some people call it a war, some call it a skirmish, some call it a blockade — with the US and Iran. Because of that, US strategic petroleum reserves have fallen below 300 million barrels for the first time since January 1983. I thought this would be a long drawn-out process, and it certainly has been. I'm not even going to look at Truth Social or any of the social networks because what's the point of seeing a post that gets changed three hours later when someone calls the other person a liar? I could tell you all day long that there's going to be some type of peace treaty or memorandum of understanding, and then 10 minutes later it's "whoopsie." So I don't know what's going on.
And then, something we've all felt at the grocery store: US grocery prices are up 33% since 2019 — the highest seven-year jump in nearly 50 years. There were a couple of presidents during that time, so take that as you will. And this happened before the fertilizer shortage even started.
If you haven't heard about this, apparently there's a massive global food supply issue that could start next year because of fertilizer shortages. People say, "Stop, Rob, stop with all the FUD." This is a real issue. 30 to 40% of all fertilizer flows through areas where there are currently blockades and disruptions. That is potentially a serious problem. Let's hope it doesn't blow up.
And as a final reminder, America is number one in debt. We have almost $40 trillion — $39 trillion, $923 billion, and some change — going up increasingly. The numbers keep going up. I keep getting concerned. I think there's only one way out of it, and you know what that means: the money printer starts firing up.
Q&A and Viewer Comments
Let's get into some Q&A and answer your questions.
Drizzle Dizzle says, "Today we become uncomfortably, unfathomably rich." That is a good term. I haven't heard "unfathomably" in a long time. Pretty good.
There was a great post today. One of the guys — his name escapes me now — was part of the Ledger cold wallet hack. He lost $1.6 million, which was essentially most of his life savings. And he had this post today that was pretty great. He said he was working out in his garage and his kid — four or five years old — is acting as his personal trainer. He's got two neighbors outside playing with his other kids, playing basketball. And he said, "You know what? I'm healthy. I have family around me. I'm pretty rich, and it's not just Bitcoin." That was pretty good. Something to remember. There's an old saying: a healthy person has a thousand wishes, and a sick person only has one. Be thankful for what we've got. I'd like to have more Bitcoin, but if I've got my health too, I'm pretty much nailing it.
This is a little bit of a different live stream — different location. I'm back in beautiful Puerto Rico. And that fertilizer story — let me show you something real quick. There's this issue with what's called a super El Niño. This is from NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. There's a weird thing going on right now. I don't know if this is affecting you in your neck of the woods, but just yesterday I was in El Paso, Texas. El Paso is essentially a desert — it's like 110 degrees in the summer. When I left it was a balmy 98 degrees, but we rarely get rain. And it flooded. That was the second rain in roughly seven days. My wife just sent me a message today saying it did the same thing again.
Then I come to Puerto Rico and they're rationing water. This entire island is split into two groups. In each group you get water for 48 hours, and then the next two days you don't get water. There are a lot of issues with that. It's not just because of El Niño — there are also massive infrastructure issues. But it is weird. When I got here I was looking around and first of all, it's hot. Way hotter than I remember. And I see all the grass dying, and there are no sprinklers around here because it normally rains all the time. There's a drought going on. That of course will affect crops and fertilizers and things like that. We'll see if it gets worse.
DJ's got some good credit card tips: never max out a card — at most 40% utilization — and pay it off every month. Your credit will go up faster. Never leave a revolving balance; that makes credit scores worse than paying off the card. That's a true one.
Rob, how's the back? Back's okay. No problems, a little bit here and there. I still have the Wolverine stack of peptides — the TB-500 and whatever it is. I stopped that a couple months ago and everything's pretty good. Between that and ozone therapy it worked out pretty well. I'm not a guy to go get surgery. I've seen too many patients not do well after that, though some people tell me it works out great.
All right, everybody. This is unfortunately the bear market, and it is kind of boring. All you get to do is sit back and accumulate. You can wait — everybody's believing that October 6th is going to be the low, or sometime around October, and then November maybe, but December definitely we're out of it and going to keep going up. I don't know. The lows from 2022 and 2023 were pretty much the same. Also 2018, 2019, and 2020 — you could pick it up at various points. It just depends. That's why you look at the moving averages. That's a pretty good one to follow.