Digital Asset News host analyzes Bitcoin market parallels to 2022, BitMEX closure, and crypto legislation stalling
Solo commentary from the Digital Asset News channel host, covering the BitMEX shutdown and associated lawsuit, the Poolin bankruptcy, stalled crypto legislation, and Bitcoin price predictions.
Summary
The host draws parallels between current crypto market conditions and the 2022 collapse cycle, pointing to the BitMEX exchange closure and an associated lawsuit alleging rigged forced liquidations, as well as the Poolin Bitcoin mining company filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. On the legislative front, he covers the stalled CLARITY Act — which would restrict senior officials from actively trading crypto (though they may hold it in a blind trust) — arguing that partisan gridlock makes passage unlikely, while noting Anthony Scaramucci's public call to pass the bill. He also references the GENIUS Act's passage in 2025 and the subsequent all-time highs as a reminder not to underestimate legislative catalysts. He closes with a discussion of veteran trader Peter Brandt's forecast of Bitcoin bottoming in the high $40,000s (with Brandt's tracker showing a range of $40,000–$60,000) around September–October 2026, and connects this to a historical pattern of Bitcoin topping and bottoming roughly one year apart. The host also reviews multiple forecasters on his Bitcoin price prediction tracker site (DanG's Crypto), including Crypto Rover, Peter Schiff, Raoul Pal, Robert Kiyosaki, and Tom Lee, and addresses capital gains tax planning for long-term Bitcoin holders.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
BitMEX Closure and the Return of 2022-Style Exchange Failures
Host: The more things change, the more they stay the same. It kind of feels like 2022 yet again.
What's going on in the news for digital assets: BitMEX — we talked about this yesterday — is closing down. They've been around for over a decade, did a great job, but unfortunately they said, "Look, this isn't working out for us and we're going to close down in September." I think it's the 23rd — correct me in the comments section. Because of that, they're urging everybody to get out of BitMEX and do a withdrawal.
On top of that, which is a pretty big exchange, it's kind of like what we saw in 2022 with Voyager, Celsius, BlockFi, FTX, Three Arrows Capital, Luna, and a whole host of different project collapses. Now with BitMEX, it looks like there's going to be litigation. BitMEX faces a new lawsuit alleging it rigged forced liquidations just weeks before shutting down. Plaintiffs claim positions were liquidated while collateral still exceeded losses, with the remaining Bitcoin transferred to BitMEX's insurance fund. The alleged scheme cost 622 Bitcoin worth $41 million. That's a heck of a golden parachute exit. But that's what's going on, allegedly. And again, it's starting to feel like 2022.
Poolin Bankruptcy Filing
Host: On top of that, we're seeing other businesses collapse as well. Poolin, which at one point was one of the largest Bitcoin miners, is closing up shop. Poolin and two US affiliates have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New Jersey and plan to sell two West Texas mining sites with a combined opening bid of $52 million. Court filings show approximately $173 million in debt — including $163 million in IOUs issued to Poolin Wallet customers after withdrawals were suspended in 2022. Creditor recoveries will depend on the auction outcome and court approval. Poolin briefly ranked as the world's largest Bitcoin mining pool in 2019.
So we can see that there is a little bit of the same thing happening as happened before. Exchanges are starting to falter. There are big issues coming up. I mean, for Pete's sake, even MicroStrategy had to sell — or did sell — their Bitcoin. Some people say they didn't have to, but they did. And again, the same thing is repeating itself over and over again.
The CLARITY Act and Congressional Crypto Restrictions
Host: Now we can talk about the bills and legislation, because back in 2022 we thought everything was going to come right through. But as a reminder, we've had some pretty good times. We had the ETF that passed. We got a pro-crypto president and his cabinet in there. Unfortunately, it doesn't mean too much because it doesn't look good for the CLARITY Act.
Here's a quick update from this morning. Democrats argue the CLARITY Act does not go far enough, which I find interesting. Here's what the bill would do: temporarily ban senior officials from issuing or sponsoring crypto — that sounds good. It covers the president, vice president, Congress, and federal judges, meaning they cannot hold Bitcoin moving forward. They can put it into a blind trust, but they cannot actively trade it. It would exclude past activity and potentially Trump's World Liberty Financial stake — pretty significant. It gives enforcement authority to the Department of Justice with fines capped at $500,000.
First of all, $500,000 — that's the highest we can go? That seems kind of lowball, don't you think? People are making billions of dollars. We're talking about President Trump and $1.4 billion. I'd pay $500,000 if I could make $1.4 billion. The bill would also allow regulators to block platforms from listing prohibited assets. But these restrictions end in early 2029.
And then also — I think we covered this yesterday — this is from Senator Rubén Gallego, who was one of the Democrats who got the bill out of the banking committee. He said, "Whatever piece of [expletive] Republicans sent back to us, this was not a serious effort." Not looking good, I will say.
The STOCK Act Comparison
Host: But I must go further with this because I think it's a little bit ridiculous. There's this thing called the STOCK Act. The STOCK Act was actually passed in 2012. The original STOCK Act was signed into law on April 4th, 2012, after passing the Senate 96–3 and the House 417 to one or two. This was signed by President Barack Obama. The rules were that it mandated congressional members disclose financial stock transactions exceeding $1,000 within 45 or 30 days. And if you got a little slap on the wrist, not a big deal.
So the STOCK Act bans lawmakers and staff from using non-public information from their official duties for personal financial gain. And they still did it — let's be honest. It confirms that federal insider trading laws apply directly to members and employees of the legislative branch. I can't remember anybody who's been impeached or had to step down for this, but maybe I'm wrong — tell me in the comments section — because it seems like every single congressman, congresswoman, and senator has a big chunk in the stock market. Just saying. Not everybody, but a lot.
The rules impose small financial penalties — typically a $200 fine for a first-time late filing for failing to meet disclosure requirements. I've got to tell you, if I'm Nancy Pelosi's husband, I'm paying that $200 fine. And then over here, if we look at the $500,000 cap in the CLARITY Act, you're like, "That seems kind of high." So I don't know what the Democrats want. I don't know what the Republicans are going to do. But I can tell you this: I have never been bullish on this act. I never thought it would pass. I sure hope it does. But imagine they're going to give a win to the Republican party — I don't think that's going to happen. I hope I'm wrong.
Anthony Scaramucci Calls for Passing the CLARITY Act
Host: Just to give a little bit of light here — I'm going to tell you about somebody who is probably not on the same wavelength as they used to be with Donald Trump: Anthony Scaramucci, the Mooch. He said this — I think it was today, as a matter of fact: "Look, I'm the last guy in America to carry water for Donald Trump on ethics. I think everybody knows my record." And we all remember that he was the press secretary for a very small amount of time, and then he just didn't get along with Trump and they went their separate ways. There's no love lost between these two.
But Anthony's got a good point. He states: "But he agreed to restrictions. Democrats won real concessions across the bill, and some people still want to pretend nothing counts unless they get 100%. That's not legislating. Pass the CLARITY Act now." So that's from Anthony. I'm just putting it out there. I don't think it's going to happen anyway, but we'll see what happens and go from there.
Bitcoin Price Predictions and the 2022 Cycle Pattern
Host: And then to finish up — price predictions, which are my favorite because they're all worthless, but they are fun to talk about. I do like Peter Brandt, and he's actually been right a lot of times. Of course, he is a trader, so it's not like he's perfect. He's made some pretty bad calls too — I think Peter would agree to that.
But here's what he states. Veteran trader Peter Brandt says Bitcoin has not bottomed, forecasting a low in the high $40,000s around early October. That would repeat perfectly what happened in 2022 when we had a low. Actually, let me just show you 2022. We bottomed out around November — somewhere around the 11th, 13th, 14th, or 22nd. But in November 2022, we bottomed out, and that was exactly — or close to — 365 days from the high, which was in November 2021. November to November, it went from the top to the bottom.
And then if we go back further: we topped in December 2017 and bottomed in December 2018. We topped in November 2021 and bottomed in November 2022. We topped in October 2025. We will probably, potentially, maybe bottom in October 2026. So for Peter Brandt to say that — it sounds reasonable. And $40,000? Sure, why not?
But he also said this: Brandt targets $250,000 to $300,000 by 2029 and says $1 million may not come until 2031 or 2032. There are a couple of things I want to mention here. Everybody likes to say "million dollar Bitcoin." I think it's going to take a lot longer than 2031 and 2032 — just like it's going to take longer than every other price prediction that's ever been put out. In 2021, there were people calling for a million dollar Bitcoin back then. And in 2025, the same thing. I think it might take a little bit of time, but imagine if it does — and I think at some point it could.
Capital Gains Tax Planning for Long-Term Bitcoin Holders
Host: So I want you to think about this. I asked this question yesterday: what are you doing for capital gains taxes? Are you hedging your bet? Because if Bitcoin does go to a million, $60,000 doesn't seem like too much of a thing. And I don't know how far away you are from retirement. If you're like me — just a few years away from being able to legally take things out — well, I've been retired for about 15 years. I don't work for anybody. It's great.
But if this happened and Bitcoin did go to a million, you know how much taxes you'd pay? You'd be like, "Well, who cares, Rob? I bought it at 60 and now it's a million. Taxes are 20%. I'm good with that." Yeah, but at that time you have to think about inflation and how much things will actually buy. So I'm just stressing the point here: this is something you should probably think about now, before you actually get to that retirement age when you can take things out of a traditional or Roth IRA.
Here's the example. You buy Bitcoin for $10,000. The value of Bitcoin goes to $60,000. You sell the Bitcoin for a capital gain of $50,000. You've got capital gains tax — at 15%, that's $7,500. People say, "Who cares? It's only $7,500." But again, if it goes to $250,000 or a million, why not put a little bit into a Roth IRA and keep a lot of it in your daily holdings? Just an option, just throwing it out there.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Tracker and Current Market Position
Host: And then also, to talk about Peter Brandt — over on the website DanG's Crypto, it's free, 100%, always will be. If you click on the profits section, I want to track this. I added it before, but if you come over here, there's a Bitcoin pricing prediction tracker. Click on 2D right here and you can see where people's price predictions stand.
Like this is mine — I think Bitcoin will be somewhere between $150,000 and $170,000 by 2029. That's my price prediction. And if you want to see what that's based on — did Rob just pull that out of the air? No. When you click on anybody's face, you can see the call and it directs right to the website, to the post, to the blog, to the video. And of course we archive those on the Wayback Machine.
Now for Peter Brandt, he's at $40,000 to $60,000 for September–October 2026 and he's pretty close — needs negative 20%. Crypto Rover thinks $40,000 to $50,000. Even Peter Schiff has got a reasonable price prediction of Bitcoin at $20,000 — not going to zero. Maybe he's learned his lesson. I'm not sure. And then of course you've got the more optimistic ones: Raoul Pal says $450,000 by the end of 2026 — I don't think that's going to happen. Robert Kiyosaki, Tom Lee, and so on and so forth.
But I will say, looking at today: did you know that if we go back four years, on July 24th, 2022, we were 66% down from the all-time high, and we still had another 10% to go? Right now, we're down 49%. That's pretty good — less volatility — but I still think, just like Peter Brandt does, that we've got a ways to go.
Q&A with Viewers
Host: All right, I like this one from William. This was the very first comment. He says, "A huge dump incoming. Most altcoins will completely die. Sell now if you want to get any money back." He'll be right on some altcoins. Let's be honest — it's been brutal, but I think it can get even worse. That's up to you.
Nas says, "Looks like those next three or four months are very interesting." Can he handle the truth? The truth is that nobody knows, and we're all just making the best educated guess that we possibly can. Things could change in a heartbeat. Maybe on Saturday, Democrats and Republicans come up with some backroom deal and they're like, "Let's do it." And all of a sudden, CLARITY hits. And remember, the GENIUS Act passed in April or May 2025, and then three or four months later we had our all-time highs. So never underestimate the power of FOMO.
Leisure says Pocahontas will never allow the CLARITY Act to pass — he's referring to Elizabeth Warren — and she is going to be a staunch critic and never allow that. That is true. I don't care what you give her. She's like, "Nope. Crypto is the worst, most evil thing, and it will unravel the fabric of the universe, and we need to destroy it because every cartel and radical individual out there for terrorism is going to use it for bad things." That's what she's got in her head. So whatever.
Yeah, Pelosi is the best trader of all. Well, it's not her — as I understand it, it's her husband. Her husband's a great trader and he just uses information he gets off the internet and blog posts. Has nothing to do with insider information.
There was an article about some individual who put in a lawsuit against all the untapped Bitcoin wallets that have not moved in more than 10 years, saying, "Well, they abandoned those Bitcoin, so that should belong to anybody, and I'm going to make a claim on it." See, that's working out.
Kelby says he's a young guy, far from retirement. Look, Kelby, I said the same thing when I was in my 30s and 40s. I was like, "I've got a long time to go." But then as the days progress, all of a sudden everything starts to accelerate and you're like, "Holy smokes, this is crazy." Pretty soon I might get Medicare — that'll be great. But on top of all that stuff, you really have to think about: do I have enough? Did I diversify enough? Do I have these funds? How can I minimize taxation? That's where tax-advantaged accounts come in — along with real estate, bonds, different stocks, and indices. Then you've also got to think about your health.
Matt just interviewed for a new job — let's hope he gets it.
AOC could be a great president. She was a bartender at one time, so she knows how to take orders from people and tell them what to do. It doesn't matter where you start, it's where you end up. That is just the truth. Look, I used to have a regular 9-to-5 job, worked at UPS at the airport for two years, then did the Army thing — combat medic — and got into medical sales and everything. Then small business ownership, sports facilities, real estate. It doesn't matter where you start, it's where you end up.
Rob, with tokenization, will we be able to invest in private equity opportunities? It sounds like private businesses will be able to open up to investment. I never really liked that accredited investor rule where essentially you have to have already made it before you can know the risks. Really, that's just the rich getting richer. I think everybody should be able to take that risk and learn from it. Some people won't — that's just how it goes. And some people will and they'll be great at it.
Someone says they're going to be 49 in August and they're not liking knowing they're almost 50. But they've been fighting for 10 years for their health after a cancer diagnosis and they're still here. That's a big accomplishment just getting through that. It seems like everybody's getting cancer these days — it's like an acceleration.
Leisure states Franklin Templeton talks about agentic AI as a killer use case for crypto. I think it definitely could be. Robinhood just rolled out AI agents to help you trade on their platform. That's pretty good.
Leisure says, "Three years from retirement, then we'll head to Rincón to buy Rob a drink." Hopefully James will join us. James might be there, but there's a much cooler group of people in San Juan. We'll hang out over there. Maybe the San Juan Smokehouse will be up and running again. That'd be great. But Rincón is like a couple of hours away from San Juan. Rincón is kind of like a sleepy surfer town.
Cash RW asks: is this thing passing or not? I don't think so, but I've been wrong before. I never thought the Bitcoin ETF would actually get passed, but thank God for Gary Gensler breaking that tie. He was the one. If it wasn't for Gary Gensler, we wouldn't have a Bitcoin ETF.
Don't AI agents cost a lot to run? The thing is, people get so hung up on AI. First of all, if you want to know how to run an AI agent in simple terms for like $20 a month, I show you how to set up Claude and make it super simple on my second channel. You don't need a separate computer, a server, or a ton of storage. Just make it simple. In four or five hours, I can teach you how to minimize the token usage so you can keep doing it. But you don't want to do it all day — you want to live life. Just do a little bit of it.
There is a video coming out that I just put together where I had Claude search through all of my documents to find passwords and mnemonic phrases. And guess what? I had a couple on my computer that I had no idea were there. Thankfully, Claude was able to search through everything and all my Gmail accounts, found them, and we eliminated them. Now, they weren't for big cold storage devices, but it was reasonable enough to scare the hell out of me. So I'll do that video. It's very easy to do — you just give it permission, tell it to go do this, it does that. That's it.