Scott Ritter argues Russia is winning the Ukraine war decisively and that Western narratives are information warfare
Glenn Diesen interviews Scott Ritter, former US Marine Corps intelligence officer and UN weapons inspector, about the state of the Ukraine war.
Summary
Glenn Diesen interviews Scott Ritter, who has recently returned from visits to Russia and the special military operation zone. Ritter argues forcefully that Russia is winning the war decisively on every front — militarily, strategically, and in terms of national cohesion — and that Western media narratives portraying Ukrainian momentum are a coordinated information operation. He contends that Ukraine is losing 80 to 100 of its best drone operators daily, that Russia has solved or is solving every Ukrainian tactical innovation including Starlink-guided drones, and that nothing agreed at the NATO summit in Ankara will have any battlefield impact before Ukraine loses the war.
Ritter also addresses the direct involvement of Baltic and Nordic states in facilitating Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia, including the Vovan and Lexus prank call exposing Estonian direction of drone targeting and Russia's SVR report on Latvian drone-launch facilities. He describes having personally advocated at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum for Russia to strike these European enablers ('shoot the dog'), and explains why Putin's deliberate choice not to escalate against NATO was a strategic signal he initially misjudged.
Ritter argues that Vladimir Putin's speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum — focused entirely on economic growth and investment rather than military escalation — reveals the true strategic posture of Russia: confident, unhurried, and oriented toward long-term stability rather than reactive escalation against NATO. He also devotes substantial attention to Germany, arguing that its 100-billion-euro rearmament programme has produced nothing, that its military expansion plans are demographically and politically unfeasible, and that the future of German politics lies with Alternative für Deutschland — making current German posturing toward Russia strategically irrelevant and giving Putin no reason to alter his current winning approach.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Opening: The state of the war and the information environment
Glenn Diesen: In the Ukraine war, we're seeing the intensity of the war increase quite dramatically, by all sides fighting in this war. How do you interpret the events on the ground, because it seems to be far from stable now?
Scott Ritter: It's actually extremely stable, and in favor of Russia. Let's never forget that this is war, and war is hell. The enemy always gets a vote. The Ukrainians have been putting up very steadfast resistance. The enemy can always throw in some surprise punches. I think we also have to understand, Glenn, that in addition to the war going on in the special military operation, there is an information war taking place today that is unprecedented. The unprecedented conflict you speak of is taking place in the information sphere, being played out on social media platforms and in mainstream media. The purpose of this information war is to promote the idea that Ukraine has somehow stolen the strategic initiative away from Russia. They've been talking a lot about Ukrainian drone strikes and the effectiveness of these drone strikes, and that Russia is powerless in the face of them — and in doing so, create the perception, or at least seek to create the perception, that there is a vulnerability in Russia, a political vulnerability that could lead to the demise of Vladimir Putin, that somehow Putin is at risk.
This is just absurd in the extreme. Yes, there is this information war, but we can parse this out point by point. Not picking on you — you pick your guests as you see fit — but you recently had Gilbert Doctorow, who just spouted the biggest line of horse crap I've ever seen in my entire life, based upon taxi interviews, interviews of real estate brokers, and two old people stuck on a hill in Feodosia because they can't get gasoline to come down. And because of this insight that he has, suddenly Russia is collapsing and Vladimir Putin is at risk. This is absurd.
Dr. Doctorow just published an article yesterday — "Russia is losing the war," with an exclamation mark, to re-emphasize the point. And he cites several things. It's focused on the drone war. Let me just set this up.
The drone war: what Ritter witnessed on the ground
The day I went to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, on June 3rd, 96 drones struck St. Petersburg. The vast majority of them were shot down. Five got through. They blew up some military targets, some oil structures. In the morning there was some black smoke visible on the horizon. The people of St. Petersburg didn't give one damn about this at all. There was no panic. Nobody changed their lifestyle. Nobody screamed in the street. There were no demonstrations against Vladimir Putin. The conference went on.
The day I left the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, I received a notification on my phone that the internet was going down because of an ongoing Ukrainian drone strike. Life is complicated by these drones — there can be no doubt about that. I went to the special military operation. The day I arrived in Lugansk, air raid sirens were sounding the whole time. That night, Lugansk was struck several times. You could hear the explosions. The next day we went to Starobilsk, the scene of the murder of 21 students by Ukrainian drones — drones brought to their target by Starlink, Elon Musk's technology. While I was in Starobilsk, two Ukrainian drones impacted nearby, generating enough concern that I was told to leave. Everywhere I went on this trip, drones were an ever-present reality.
The last day in the special military operation, the convoy I was in was struck by Hornet drones. These are drones built by a company funded by Eric Schmidt, the founder of Google — again, using Starlink technology and connectivity.
When you speak to the Russians, they will tell you this is a complicated war, a very complicated war. I interviewed numerous Russian drone operators, drone commanders, drone specialists, drone research and development people, drone technicians, experts on modern drone warfare. And they all said the same thing: the Ukrainians are very good at what they do. But when they said it, they didn't say it in the tones of somebody playing the New England Patriots with Tom Brady at quarterback going, "Tom Brady's very good, we don't have a solution for him, he's picking us apart, we're going to lose this game." No. They said, "Yeah, Ukraine's good, but we're better and we're winning."
I interviewed Dmitry Rogozin, the former head of Roscosmos and current commander of Tsar Sarmat, a drone brigade who runs a technology center. He said, "Yeah, for instance, on the Hornet — it's a very effective weapon. They introduced some interesting things with it. They're using Starlink and some AI technologies." Then he chuckled and talked about how they were going through the debris, reverse engineering it. He said, "We got the solution. We already solved the problem." So while the West is promoting how the Hornet is creating a highway of death, the Russians have already solved the problem. But the West doesn't talk about that. The fact that every Ukrainian problem presented has come up with a Russian solution, and that Russian solution further projects the advantage in favor of Russia.
Never forget that the FP1 drones that Ukraine uses to strike Russian energy structures have a 60-kilogram high-explosive warhead. Do you know what sound that makes when it hits a Russian oil refinery? Pop. Do you know how solid they are? You live in Norway — go to a Norwegian oil refinery. Take a look at the construction. Tell me what kind of steel they use in these high-pressure vessels. Is it the kind of steel that will be destroyed by a pop, or does it take a boom? Because every time I check, not a single Russian refinery has been permanently shut down. Every Russian refinery has been brought back on line.
The Moscow refinery was hit. They have two refining units — AV6 and Euro X. AV6 was shut down, primarily because it was also going to be upgraded — it's being upgraded as we speak. People never do the follow-through to understand why things are what they are. They're replacing that unit with a new modern unit that's already been programmed to be much more efficient. They also brought the Euro refining unit back up within a matter of days, so there was no permanent cessation. Samara was shut down, brought back in a matter of days. This is the reality.
The FP1 drone being used is not high technology. Dr. Doctorow calls it "advanced German technology guided by American intelligence." Oh, the Russians should surrender right now because it's over. It's not advanced German technology. It's a plywood drone that flies 60 miles an hour. You know what the solution to the FP1 drone is? It's not, as people say, "Oh, they're going to destroy Russian air defense because the Pantsir missile — there aren't enough of them." They don't need them. The Russians now have roving gun crews out there hunting them down. They have their own counter-drone units flying and shooting them down as they come in. Ukraine has lost 555 of these drones. Less than five make it to their target. That tells you the Russians are doing something good. Layered air defense. They've got this thing solved.
Meanwhile, the factories that produce the FP1 drones are disappearing. Lindsey Graham visited a factory — you saw the photograph of him beaming, holding one of those advanced Ukrainian anti-drone drones in his hands. It's over. The Ukrainians had the technology, right? No, they don't have the factory anymore. It's gone. And all Ukrainian factories are going away because the Russians are winning this war. Have the Russian drone factories gone away? No. Every once in a while, an FP1 drone slips through and goes pop goes the weasel. That's it. There is nothing the Ukrainians are doing right now that gives them the advantage on anything. They're losing across the board. They're losing on the battlefield. The Russians are advancing, slaughtering Ukrainians.
Russia's ISR dominance and the drone operator attrition crisis
One of the reasons why the Ukrainians are losing — and again, the West won't talk about this — is that the Russians hold what they call the ISR advantage. They have overwatch over the totality of the battlefield. And the Russians have used AI in their command and control in a way that the West doesn't even understand right now. They have maximized the rapidity of analysis of imagery coming from a variety of sources. Any glitch in the pattern-of-life analysis, anything that shows a drone system could be operated here, is instantly responded to with a Russian strike — artillery, depending on where it is, could be an Iskander, could be another missile, could be FAB-500 bombs.
The Ukrainians on a daily basis are losing 8 to 10 Ukrainian drone command centers. Each one of those has half a dozen to a dozen soldiers. These soldiers take four weeks to complete basic training as a drone operator, and six months to become proficient. On a daily basis, the Ukrainians are losing 80 to 100 of their best drone operators. Every single day. And they're not being replaced. Nobody talks about this. There is a deficit right now in what the Ukrainians can do, and it is of strategic proportions.
The information war and its domestic Russian target
So what's going on right now is an information operation. It's designed to convince — not the West, because the West will buy any lie told to it and Russia doesn't care about the West — but there is an element inside Russia, 10 to 15% of the population, who are still somewhat sympathetic to Western liberal values. People like Ksenia Sobchak — she runs a media operation, she just interviewed me. She's somebody who some people say hates Russia, but I don't say that. I think she has a different vision of Russia: a Russia strategically aligned with the West, culturally aligned with the West. She doesn't believe in the SMO. She doesn't support the SMO. And I think she secretly believes that Vladimir Putin has been in power too long and needs to be replaced.
But how do you get rid of Vladimir Putin? You have to create the perception that he's somehow vulnerable. And right now we have a theme taking place in the West — Gilbert Doctorow is one of the leading proponents of this — that a window of vulnerability opens up on September 20th in the Duma elections. Do you understand that Putin is not going to be kicked out of power on September 20th? Does everybody understand that? This man's approval rating is in the high 70s. It could possibly go back up into the 80s because the Russians will rally behind their leadership. They will not abandon their leadership, especially an effective and beloved leader like Vladimir Putin.
This is just false hope. The notion — and there are people who say Putin is vulnerable because Russia's history shows vulnerability, citing Gorbachev, Yeltsin, citing the Wagner revolt — these are absolute misreads. You're comparing apples and oranges. Putin is more secure in power today than he has ever been. There is no chance of any window of vulnerability. There is no meaningful counter.
Gilbert Doctorow uses interesting analytical models, some of which are derived from watching Russian TV. Glenn, you watch Russian TV — you understand that Russian TV is a business. Do you think that 60 Minutes, the big game, Solovyov Live, is about providing fact-based analysis to the Russian people? Or is it news as entertainment, designed to attract viewership? And how do you entertain? Not by going out there giving cold hard facts. You entertain with controversy. You have to have controversy. Russian TV generates controversy. To sit there and say, "I watch Russian TV, therefore I have my finger on the pulse of Russian society and Russian politics" — that is the dumbest thing I've ever heard in my life.
I'm frustrated by this, Glenn, because I just came back from Russia. As somebody who has spent his adult life doing high-stakes, high-grade intelligence analysis — trained by the best the American intelligence community had at its prime, having received classified commendations from the Director of the CIA for my analytical products, having had my products briefed to presidents of the United States, to prime ministers around the world, to secretaries-general, to commanders of military forces, with a track record of over 95% correct — the thing about being a good analyst is your ability not to be married to something. Not to say, "Oh, I got this right, therefore this is what I'm going to embrace." But to absorb new data, rethink your analytical methodologies, and ask: has something changed? I do that all the time.
The one thing I would never do is become a prisoner of Russian television. What an absurdity. The sources I use are Russian generals, Russian colonels, Russian majors, Russian captains, Russian sergeants, Russian soldiers. I interview them consistently over time. I interview senators, representatives of the Duma, industry leaders, people affiliated with academia, people affiliated with the foreign ministry, with the defense ministry. I don't interview taxi drivers. I get interviewed by taxi drivers as I drive to and fro in Moscow — some of them confused me with Tucker Carlson, God bless them.
The idea that I would come on your show and tell you I'm going to give you analysis because I talked to two movers who were moving furniture out of my house, or an 80-year-old person stuck on a hill in Feodosia without gasoline, or because I watch Russian TV — that is why I bring up Doctorow. He is endemic of the problem. The mainstream media and social media are relying upon people who aren't providing sound analysis. People who are playing into a theme that is popular, that gets clicks, but is not giving you the truth.
The truth of Russia is this: the political establishment has never been stronger. The certainty of victory on the battlefield has never been more certain. The strategic initiative has shifted completely in favor of Russia. Stop believing what you hear about the energy situation. There is no energy crisis. There's an energy hiccup. Everything is being managed. Those gas lines you see — they don't exist anymore, Glenn. They go away within three days because the Russians reallocate resources and suddenly gas is available. Why is gas available? Because they stop exporting gasoline. People say that's a sign of Russian weakness. Russia hasn't been exporting gasoline for many years now because of the sanctions and the war. Only recently did they start exporting gas again, but now they have to stop because of drone strikes. Drone strikes are causing a problem.
But the guidance system that takes the drones to Russian oil refineries — which the CIA called their magic weapon in that article they published in 2024, at the same time they launched a drone strike to assassinate Vladimir Putin — that guidance system is Starlink. Glenn, Starlink is not working right now in many places in Ukraine. Ask yourself why. I know the answer. I know because I was there. I talked to the people who are hunting Starlink. There are three strategic paths that Russia is taking to nullify Starlink as an effective communication vector, and they're all coming into play except one.
One is called shredding. Russia could shut down Starlink today, right now as we speak — take it out by shredding the constellation. That would be the end of Starlink and all American military communications connectivity. It's a huge vulnerability. Russia's not doing it. Why? Because Russia is not panicked. Russia is using alternative vectors to shut down Starlink, and it's working. Ask the Ukrainians why their drones aren't flying right now in certain areas — because they can't fly, because Russia shut down Starlink. Ask them why the success rate of the FP1 is dropping to the ground. Russia's solved the problem. Why is the Hornet flying? The drone war is being won by Russia.
I'm telling you, this is a statement of fact from somebody who just came from the special military operation, interviewed the Russian drone operators, and watched firsthand what's happening. This doesn't mean that the Ukrainians aren't having some effectiveness. This is a war. War is hell and the Ukrainians are doing a good job. They're very brave. But they're losing 80 to 100 of their best drone operators a day and they don't have anybody to replace them.
NATO's involvement and Peskov's statement about the shift to war
Glenn Diesen: One thing which has changed is that Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov made the point that the special military operation was now shifting towards war because of NATO's deepening involvement. How do you see the extent of NATO's involvement now in the war? Is it growing? And what is the meaning of what Peskov said — does it mark any shift in the thinking of the Kremlin?
Scott Ritter: The thinking of the Kremlin is measured by Vladimir Putin. Let's wait until Vladimir Putin articulates a statement. Peskov is a spokesperson who goes out and answers questions. Sometimes he gets ahead of his skis. Sometimes his job is to plant a seed of thought. There was just a major NATO summit, and I think Russia needed to be seen as responding to it. Rather than letting NATO get a free ride — saying all these things and posturing against Russia without consequence — the Russians have come back with several statements.
Remember when France talked about sending Rafale fighters with nuclear weapons to Finland? The response was: Finland has now become a nuclear target. Does that mean Russia restructured its entire nuclear profile? No. It just means they made a statement. You're talking about something — we're putting a marker on the table. NATO comes out, talks about more money to Ukraine, talks about joint production, and Peskov is making the simple statement that this makes you a direct party to the war and changes the nature of the conflict. But there has been no legal change. Regardless of what Peskov said, it's a special military operation. It continues to be a special military operation, with all the restrictions that are attached to that in terms of what Russia can or won't do.
Russia has expanded its target deck. They're using a different algorithm which takes into account dual-use capabilities. This is why you see furniture factories that Russia has known for some time have been reconfigured as drone factories being destroyed — Russia is now saying, "We have no choice but to hit these dual-use facilities." Before, Russia was playing a perception game: we don't want to be perceived as striking civilian targets. But now they're blowing up everything that has a military connotation because NATO has changed its own profile and behavioral patterns.
NATO's Ankara summit: Ritter's assessment
Let's take a look at what NATO actually did. Let's start with the fact that NATO is not unified. Glenn, you know that Donald Trump made a parting shot at Greenland. Do you really think NATO is going to stand by and let the United States seize Greenland from Denmark? The answer is no. Spain, the last time I checked, was a member in good standing of NATO, and Donald Trump is now cutting all ties. Is that how NATO members treat each other? Turkey still has huge problems with Greece — two NATO members. France has problems with Turkey.
Ankara was a facade. It was fake. It was theater, political theater. What did NATO commit to? The money they talk about pouring into Ukraine isn't going to Ukraine — it's being invested into European defense industry, ostensibly to the benefit of Ukraine. But many of the technologies you're talking about investing in require lead times of two, three, four years. Ukraine is losing the war right now. Nothing that was agreed to in Ankara will have any impact on the battlefield this summer, this fall, this winter, when Ukraine loses this war.
Meanwhile, the Russians are taking apart Ukraine's energy infrastructure. They talked about a dark winter last year. What do you think this is going to be? There's going to be a dark summer already, at the peak of air conditioning season. Russia is devastating the infrastructure, devastating supplies. The Ukrainian people are suffering today.
The big thing that happened was Donald Trump's emotional instability projected him hard right back towards Ukraine. How long do you think he's going to be a friend of Zelensky? What happens when Zelensky starts complaining about Patriots and licensing production? Donald Trump is going to call him what he's already called him: ungrateful. And then the reality of the global energy crisis is going to slap him in the face again. He's going to have to grant Russia the ability to sell oil. When Scott Bessent says we need to ratchet down oil, he's going to say we can't — we have to have Russian oil in the market to stabilize global energy markets.
The talk about licensing Patriot production inside Ukraine — I can guarantee you this, Glenn: not a single Patriot will ever be built under license inside Ukraine. It's a physical impossibility. First of all, you've got to put in a 600,000-square-foot factory built from scratch. You think the Russians are going to sit there and say, "Hey, yeah, go ahead and build that factory. Send in all your technicians. Install the specialized equipment. Test it all the way. Establish your supply lines." You understand that factory will never get built. No insurance underwriter is going to fund that. This is a joke, and already it's recognized as a joke. This is why Zelensky is in a panic, running around saying, "I've got to hold you to your word. You promised me licensed-built Patriots." And he's realizing there will be no license-built Patriots. The best he's going to get is Patriot GMTs produced by Germany, assembled in Germany using German parts, sent across the border — and they will be blown up in a warehouse before they're ever launched.
The United States says we're sending in PAC-3 Patriots, the ones they need to shoot down things. You understand the GMT shoots down nothing — maybe a Kalibr now and then. It can't handle Zircon, Kinzhal, or the Iskander. So the Russians are hitting Ukraine today. There is no air defense in Ukraine, which means there's no air defense umbrella for any of the things that Ukraine wants to happen. Everything will be destroyed by Russia on Russia's terms. Ukraine cannot rebuild. Ukraine is not rebuilding. This is the reality of the conflict.
Ankara was a joke. An absolute joke. And you will watch as quickly as everybody talked about Ankara and patted themselves on the back — it's already happening. The spirit of Ankara is disintegrating as we speak.
Estonia's involvement and the question of Russian escalation against NATO
Glenn Diesen: We saw the Russian pranksters Vovan and Lexus prank-calling a top advisor of the Estonian leadership, essentially getting him to admit that Estonia was assisting to some extent in directing where the drones were hitting. Maria Zakharova made the comment that this proves Estonia is now involved in terrorism against Russia. I thought this was remarkable — not because most people didn't know about the involvement of the Baltic states, but once Russia recognizes this and says it out loud, they immediately put a lot of pressure on themselves to do something about it. Do you see this changing the dynamic? Because the Russians remain cautious, and there's been a lot of talk about the need to restore their deterrent, that NATO has stepped way over the line. But you see it shifting anything?
Scott Ritter: First of all, understand this: before the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Naryshkin, the head of the SVR, had his press service put out a report saying that the Russians were aware of seven to nine facilities being built by Latvia on behalf of Ukraine to facilitate drone launches. They said, "We know where these are, and if you do this, we can hit them." So Vovan and Lexus are good friends of mine — I love these guys. I always joke to them that I think they're working for the SVR, because the things they do are better than any intelligence service. They're able to get deep insights into the true thinking of the West, which is shown to be duplicitous, liars, not to be trusted.
But the idea that you need Vovan and Lexus to tell you that Latvia is behaving poorly — the Russians knew this. When the drone struck St. Petersburg, Russia tracked it the whole time. They knew it was going out to the Gulf of Finland and coming in. None of this took Russia by surprise.
Now, I've been a proponent for some time about striking Europe. You know this. I've said it on your program — shoot the dog. I gave a speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum where I said, "Shoot the dog." Got a standing ovation — except from the Russian diplomats, who went, "No, we're not going to do that." But I thought Vladimir Putin was going to come to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and say, "I'm shooting the dog." Because why not? Naryshkin said they had those sites, and then we saw those sites being used to send drones to attack St. Petersburg. So I thought for sure Putin would do that. He shocked me.
Putin's St. Petersburg speech and what it reveals about Russian strategy
The entire speech Putin gave at St. Petersburg made no reference to the Ukrainian conflict at all. And this opened up an insight. Remember I told you the key about being a good analyst is to sit back and take in new data and say — because the only voice that matters in Russia is Vladimir Putin's voice. That's the only voice that matters. The decisions are made by him, not by Peskov, not by Lavrov, not by Patrushev — by Putin.
So I'm listening to Putin and asking, "Where is he going?" I'm expecting fire and brimstone. I'm expecting him to say, "As I speak, give me the button." Boom — there goes Latvia, Estonia. I would have cheered, because I thought it was the right thing to do. That's because I was ignorant. Because I was listening to too much Russian TV. I was listening to too many Russian pundits. I was listening to too much Russian social media. I thought that was the pulse of Russia. The pulse of Russia comes from the pulse of the president.
The president said: this war will not define us. What defines us is economic stability and economic growth. The future of Russia is its economy. And he sat there and made a pitch for investments. It was a good pitch — $84 billion worth of investments were garnered from the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. His focus was: we are moving forward.
Then he turned to questions and answers and talked about the special military operation. But it was stunning, because he basically turned to the military and gave a Stalinist-type order to the admirals, the generals, the marshals: go forward, do your duty. Standard stuff. Then he finished in a way that only a president totally in tune with the Russian soldiers could have finished. "Rabotayte, bratya" — keep working, brothers. That comes from the Dagestani police officer who was executed live by terrorists. They said, "Do you have anything to say?" He said, "Keep working, brothers." And that's become the rallying cry of Russians everywhere in the streets as they come together. Two words. That's it. Keep working, brothers. Russia is more united than I've ever seen before. And they're not going to let this war dictate the priorities of Russia.
Why Russia will not attack NATO — and the legal basis if it chose to
I'm not an international lawyer, but I know enough about international law to know that I can make a plausible claim under Article 51 self-defense, citing the Caroline clause for preemptive self-defense, so that Russia could take out the Baltic states right now as we speak — legally. Hell, they don't even have to make that case for Germany, because Germany is an enemy state under the United Nations Charter, and Germany is rearming in a way that replicates patterns of behavior linked to prohibited behavior. Russia could take them out anytime they want to, legally. Russia is right to point out that all of these nations are parties to the conflict and therefore Russia has a legal right to strike.
But again, let me get back to what I said at the beginning. Nothing NATO is doing is moving the needle on the battlefield. Nothing. So now you're Russia, you're Vladimir Putin, whose number one job is to keep Russia on track towards stability and economic growth, because that is the future of Russia.
Forget all the people who say, "Oh, Russia wants global instability in the energy markets because they make money off of higher energy costs." You understand that Russia's total percentage of GDP from oil sales is around 20%. Russia makes money off of economic growth across the spectrum — including energy, but other ways as well. And a lot of that growth is dependent upon investments. People aren't going to invest when you have high energy prices, because high energy prices create inflationary pressures that are detrimental to the investment climate. No one will invest in Russia with high energy prices. And that's the exact opposite track that Putin is trying to take Russia on. So Putin is not looking for instability to exploit globally. Putin is looking for long-term predictability in the global investment environment. That's what he's looking for.
And when you're winning the war against NATO across the board, why would you decide to change the algorithm that's producing victory? Propaganda doesn't win wars unless you allow it to rot the morale of men. That's mental warfare. Andrei Ilnitsky has talked about it — people should study what he writes. But if the goal is to get Russia to doubt itself to the point where they have a Moscow Maidan moment, then that goal is in vain, because it's not going to happen. Putin is not going to attack NATO unless NATO does something precipitous. Right now NATO is not in a position to do anything precipitous.
There's a lot of attention paid on Germany, and why not? You have to respond in the information warfare game when Germany publishes a white paper projecting the potential of warfare in 2029, when Pistorius talks about expanding the military from 148,000 to nearly 500,000. You have to respond. You have to say this is bad. But the reality is Russia doesn't have to do anything. Olaf Scholz asked for 100 billion euros back in 2022 to magically refurbish the German military, which was basically destroyed — destroyed by Ursula von der Leyen, who was at one time affiliated with the ministry of defense. That 100 billion went in and nothing happened, because Germany is so fundamentally broken that 100 billion euros couldn't even begin the process of rebuilding. Now they're talking about tripling the size of their military — with what manpower? 60% of German men of military age said they're not going to fight. You want to have a draft? The quickest way to get Merz voted out of office is to instill a draft. It will never happen. Merz has no political viability. He's finished. He's done. The future of Germany will be dictated by Alternative für Deutschland, which will be part of a coalition and eventually maybe even dominating a coalition down the road. And they're not going to continue this path. Everything Germany is doing is a joke. Their technologies don't work. Their industries don't work. This is the reality.
Why would Putin attack Germany today? You attack Germany, you run the risk of altering the algorithm that is guaranteeing your success. Let NATO score political points on social media. Who cares what Ukrainian bots say? Who cares what the Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, or the New York Times says? The only reality is the reality on the ground. And on the ground, the Russian army is advancing, slaughtering the Ukrainians in numbers.
This claim about 35,000 dead Russians a month — it's just stupid. Stupid. The Russians are suffering casualties, of course they are. This is war. It's a new kind of war — drone warfare. But the idea that we can document 25 to 35,000 Russian casualties a month? No, they can't. It's a straightforward lie. Part of the information warfare going on. The Russians, on the other hand, can document that they are slaughtering the Ukrainians in similar numbers. One of the things you have to learn about Ukrainian numbers is that they tend to project their own casualties onto Russia — that's something they've historically done. So what we have to understand is that the Ukrainians are suffering 25 to 35,000 casualties a month. And the TCC guys who go around and kidnap people off the street — they can't kidnap 25,000 to 35,000 a month. There is a manpower deficit in Ukraine right now, and it is of strategic proportions. This is the fact.
So there is no pressure on Vladimir Putin to attack NATO. There are people on the periphery who are saying things — Karaganov is famous for promoting things like this. But Vladimir Putin spoke at St. Petersburg. Why don't people listen to him? Why don't you trust the Russian president when he speaks about Russia? He basically said: we are not going to let this war define where we're going. He's not panicked. There's no panic. There's no panic among the Russian people. And any panic you see in the Russian media sphere is entertainment-driven controversy designed to garner views and clicks. The only voice that matters is Vladimir Putin. So far, Vladimir Putin has been consistently calm and in control.
How long can Ukraine hold on?
Glenn Diesen: How long do you think this war can continue? How long can Ukraine hold on, because we see things deteriorating on the front lines where the Russians are now just punching through?
Scott Ritter: There are a lot of variables at play, and one should be careful about making predictions. These are unknowns. The problem is: when does the structure collapse? You place a structure under tremendous pressure and the structure starts to weaken, but structures are designed to reinforce each other and stay in place. When will the structure collapse? The structure will collapse when it's incapable of sustaining the load.
Ukraine continues to receive considerable infusion of capital from the West, which means that as Russia takes down load-bearing mechanisms, they're reinforced or new mechanisms are run in. Logic dictates that Ukraine can't hold out much longer, but I've been saying this for years and Ukraine has held out — because what we don't know is what the West is doing behind the scenes. There's a lot of stuff happening in terms of the infusion of capital that are unknowns.
The key thing here that people have to understand is: it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. Russia will do this forever. Again, listen to the Russian leadership. They cited the war with Sweden — I forget how long it took to defeat Sweden. Thirty years. It's not going to take Russia 30 years. But the idea that Russia is sitting there saying, "We've got to win by this calendar date" — they've never done that. Russia has never put a calendar date up there. It's all based upon operational objectives.
And Russia has done some things that people need to understand. The Ankara compromises are over. You heard Vladimir Putin: Sumy is a Russian city. You understand what that means, don't you? Sumy is Russian. Kharkiv is a Russian city. You do know what that means, don't you? And Odessa is a Russian city. This war doesn't end in a way that's going to be good for Ukraine. Ukraine will be destroyed by this.
Denazification is a reality. And denazification means the literal liquidation of everybody on the list. Vladimir Putin has said, "We are collecting names. Your names are on the list. We will hold you to account." Take him at his word. This is why there will not be a Zelensky government post-conflict. Zelensky will be dead, in jail, or will have run away. Syrsky is gone. Zelensky, Budanov — all of these players are dead men walking. They have no future. Anybody affiliated with the Nazi regime, the Banderist regime, is gone. There will be no rump state in western Ukraine. Lviv, a bastion of Banderism — every single Banderist in Ukraine will be eradicated. That's how this war ends.
You say, "How long will it take?" It doesn't matter. It will take as long as needed. Vladimir Putin is looking for long-term stability. That means this war cannot end in a way that allows it to be rekindled five or ten years down the road. When this war is over, a red line is drawn. That means it will never happen again. And that's the foundation of stability Putin needs to drive the growth going forward. People need to put that in their thick skulls. Vladimir Putin cares about everybody in Russia, but the idea that he's going to dramatically change the trajectories he's on because two people in Feodosia are stuck on a hill without gasoline is the dumbest thing I've ever heard in my entire life.
Glenn Diesen: On that note, and also as you have to go, thank you so much for your time. I do appreciate this. I haven't been in Russia now for many months, so it's good to get some perspective.
Scott Ritter: Go and see. Really, you have to. You'll see it. It's the truth.