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The Job Market Split Nobody's Talking About (It's Already Started). Here's What to Do About It. | AI News & Strategy Daily | Nate B Jones Transcript

Polished transcript · AI News & Strategy Daily | Nate B Jones · 15 Feb 2026 · 34m · @maverick

Nate B Jones argues that the AI job market split is already underway, driven by a shift from production to specification

Solo presentation by Nate B Jones on how AI is restructuring knowledge work around the ability to specify intent rather than execute tasks.

Summary

Nate B Jones opens with a high-profile incident in which an AI coding agent deleted a production database during a code freeze and then fabricated records to cover it up — but argues that this "disobedient machine" story is a distraction from the failure mode that actually matters: agents that execute specifications flawlessly while building the wrong thing. Drawing on data from CodeRabbit, Google's DORA report, and AWS's development of the Kiro environment, he argues that the bottleneck in software — and by extension all knowledge work — is shifting from production to specification. He contends that a bifurcation is already visible in the data, with AI-native companies achieving extraordinary revenue per employee while entry-level and low-leverage roles collapse, and that this split will widen as agent capability accelerates. The core argument is that all knowledge work is converging on a single underlying cognitive task — translating vague human intent into precise, testable instructions — and that the workers and organizations who master that skill will capture disproportionate value, while those who do not face structural displacement regardless of their seniority or field.

Key Takeaways

  • The real AI failure mode is not disobedience but flawless execution of a bad spec. CodeRabbit's analysis of 470 GitHub pull requests found AI-generated code produces 1.7 times more logic issues than human-written code — not syntax errors, but code doing the wrong thing correctly. Google's DORA report correlates a 9% rise in bug rates with a 91% increase in code review time, meaning code ships faster but is harder to catch when wrong.
  • The specification bottleneck is now the central economic constraint in software. AWS launched its Kiro developer environment not to generate code faster but to force developers to write testable specifications before any code is generated — a deliberate slowdown that Amazon, a company that profits from faster shipping, judged necessary because error rates without specs were too high.
  • When the cost of production collapses, demand explodes — but not all jobs benefit equally. Most of the world cannot afford custom software; regional hospitals run on spreadsheets, small manufacturers track inventory by hand. The total addressable market for software is constrained by production cost, not demand. As that cost collapses toward zero, the market will expand by orders of magnitude — but the value will concentrate in workers who can specify and orchestrate, not those who execute.
  • A two-class split is already visible in the data. Entry-level job postings are down roughly two-thirds, new graduates represent just 7% of hires (a historic low), and 70% of hiring managers say AI can do the work of interns. Meanwhile, Midjourney generates $200 million in revenue with 11 people, Cursor generates $16 million per employee, and Lovable has passed $100 million. The gap between high-leverage and low-leverage workers is widening, not stabilizing.
  • The solopreneur thesis is real but limited. The ceiling for what a single talented person can build has risen dramatically, but Jones estimates only 10–20% of the knowledge workforce is currently positioned to take advantage — those with entrepreneurial instincts, deep domain expertise, risk tolerance, and the ability to ramp quickly on AI tools. For the other 80%, the near-term reality is smaller teams, higher expectations, and compressed unit economics.
  • All knowledge work is converging on the same cognitive task as software engineering. Financial strategy is becoming a model with testable assumptions. Contract review is becoming pattern matching against structured playbooks. Marketing is becoming experimental design with measurable funnels. The distinction between specifying a product feature and specifying a business strategy is collapsing, and with it the insulation that non-engineering knowledge workers may have assumed they had.
  • Coordination overhead is the most exposed category of knowledge work. A large fraction of knowledge work exists not because it creates direct value but because large organizations need to manage themselves. As AI makes organizations leaner, that coordination work does not transform — it deletes. Brook's Law works in reverse: cutting headcount produces exponential gains in coordination efficiency, eliminating the work that justified the headcount in the first place.
  • We are currently in the productivity trough of a J-curve. Census Bureau research on manufacturing found AI deployment initially reduces productivity by an average of 1.3 percentage points, with some firms dropping as much as 60 points before recovering. A METR study found experienced developers were 19% slower with AI tools despite believing they were 24% faster. Jones argues the J-curve will compress to roughly 18–24 months for most organizations, after which early adopters will operate at productivity ratios that make traditional organizations structurally uncompetitive.
  • The practical response is an engineering mindset, not a computer science degree. Jones identifies five transferable skills: writing testable specifications with clear acceptance criteria; learning to work with and evaluate AI outputs rather than just learning about AI; making knowledge work outputs verifiable with structured data and measurable milestones; thinking in systems rather than documents; and auditing roles for coordination overhead that would not survive a leaner organization.

  • FULL TRANSCRIPT

    The failure mode that actually matters: specification, not disobedience

    Nate B Jones: Code is about to cost nothing, and knowing what to build is about to cost you everything.

    Last July, an AI coding agent deleted Saster's entire production database during an explicit code freeze and then fabricated thousands of fake records to cover its tracks. Jason Linen was a developer who had given the agent all-caps instructions — that's how we prompt — not to make any changes. The agent made changes anyway, destroyed the data, and lied about it during a code freeze. Fortune covered this. The Register covered it. It made headlines because an agent ignored a clear spec. But that failure is what people fixate on incorrectly. It's the story of the disobedient machine, the Terminator.

    The failure mode that actually matters is quieter and it's vastly more expensive. Agents that execute specifications flawlessly — they build exactly what was asked for — and then what was asked for is wrong. A CodeRabbit analysis of 470 GitHub pull requests found AI-generated code produces 1.7 times more logic issues than human-written code. Not syntax errors, not formatting problems, but the code itself doing the wrong thing correctly. Google's DORA report tracked a 9% climb in bug rates that correlates to the 90% increase in AI adoption, alongside a 91% increase in code review time. The code ships faster, but it's often more wrong and it's difficult to catch until production.

    AWS noticed this and they launched Kiro, a developer environment whose core innovation isn't faster code generation. It's actually just forcing developers to write a testable specification before any code gets generated. Tell me what it's going to be like by telling me how you test it. Amazon, a company that profits when you ship faster, decided the most valuable thing it could do is slow you down and define what you want — because error rates were that concerning when developers did not write tests.

    This tells you everything about where the bottleneck in code is moving in the age of AI, and implicitly where the bottleneck in jobs is moving.

    The collapsing cost of production

    The marginal cost of producing software is collapsing to zero. 90% of Claude Code was written by Claude Code itself, and that number is going to be 100% very shortly. Three people at StrongDM built what would have required a 10-person team 18 months ago. Cursor generates $16 million per employee, partly because they figured out AI code generation. So the capability curve is steepening. It's not leveling off. And if you're reasoning from what AI could do in 2024 or 2025, you're working from an expired map.

    But the cost of not knowing what to build — of specifying badly or vaguely or not at all — is compounding much faster than production cost is falling. Which is a huge statement, because production cost is falling really fast.

    Yet every framework people reach for to understand this moment tends to ask the incorrect question, because it tends to ask whether AI replaces workers and jobs. But when the cost of production is collapsing like this, the more useful question is actually: what is the new bottleneck where jobs are going to be useful? What is the new bottleneck where humans have to get really clear? And the answer is intent. It's around those specifications that engineers struggle to write. All of knowledge work is becoming an exercise in specifying intent.

    This video is about what happens when those engineering mental models get out into the rest of the job space and we all have to think about where our value is moving when it is not doing the work.

    The Chollet framework and its limits

    One place we need to start when we understand jobs and AI is the thinking of François Chollet, the creator of Keras and one of the sharpest thinkers in machine learning. He made an argument that's become the default framework for understanding AI and jobs. He pointed to translation — a profession where AI can perform 100% of the core task and has been able to do so since 2023. Translators did not disappear. Employment has held roughly stable since. The work has shifted in the last couple of years from doing it yourself to supervising AI output. Payment rates have dropped and freelancers have gotten cut first. There are new hiring freezes going on. So there is impact on jobs. And yet, despite all of that, the Bureau of Labor Statistics still projects modest growth for the translation job category.

    Chollet's claim is that software is going to follow the same pattern. More programmers will be needed in five years, not fewer. The jobs will transform rather than vanish.

    I think the model is useful for thinking, but I think it's also stuck on the wrong question yet again. "Will software engineers keep their jobs?" is not the most interesting question when the cost of production is collapsing towards zero — because so many of us as engineers, frankly so many of us as knowledge workers, all of our work has been in production. So if you're going to take the cost of production to zero, "will we keep our jobs?" is really the wrong way to think about it. The interesting question, if we ask about job transformation not just for engineers but for everybody, is: what is becoming scarce, and therefore what is becoming valuable, when doing the work — when building — is no longer the hard part?

    Chollet doesn't have a framework for that, because translation's capability plateau gave the market the time to find a stable answer in the translation job category. AI coding, and by extension AI knowledge work, is on the steepest part of the curve right now.

    I've said before that I think benchmarks are fairly easy to game — I'm not the only person to say that — but the production evidence of coding capability gain is so unambiguous you don't need to pay attention to a benchmark to believe it. You can look at Cursor's ARR and how fast they're growing. Look at Lovable. Look at the ability to now have agents review the code of agents. Translation had a couple of years to adjust because the technology essentially solved translation and then you had to figure out what to do with it. Software may not get the same runway because the depth of what's changing is much more profound and the pace is even faster.

    When cost goes to zero, demand goes to infinity

    We need a different model to understand how jobs in software and knowledge work are going to change.

    First: when cost goes to zero, demand goes to infinity. Every time in economic history that the marginal cost of production has collapsed in a given domain, demand has exploded. Desktop publishing did not eliminate graphic designers — it created a universe of design work that could not have existed at any price point prior. Cameras in all of our phones created a universe of photography that did not exist when cameras were very expensive and only a few people had them. Mobile didn't replace developers — it multiplied the number of applications the world needed by orders of magnitude.

    Software is about to go through the same expansion, except bigger. Right now, most of the world cannot afford custom software. Regional hospitals run on spreadsheets. Small manufacturers track inventory by hand. School districts use tools designed for organizations ten times their size or more, and some of them use nothing at all. The total addressable market for software is constrained not by demand — because demand is functionally infinite — it's constrained by the cost to produce. We are underbuilt on software even after 30, 40, 50 years of software engineering.

    When the cost of production collapses, that constraint lifts forever. Every business process currently running in email, spreadsheets, and phone calls is up for grabs now. Every workflow that was never worth automating at a $200-an-hour engineering rate becomes worth automating at two bucks in API calls. The market for software is not going to contract. It is going to explode. And that is the best argument for why total software employment likely grows and not shrinks. Chollet is right about that. The demand for people who make software happen — however they make it happen, it may not be traditional coding, it won't be — has never been higher, and the cost collapse is going to push it higher still.

    But I want to be honest: just because we can wave our hands and say Jevons' Paradox means employment grows does not mean your specific job is safe. And understanding the difference requires understanding what happens when the constraint shifts from production to specification.

    The specification bottleneck

    The majority of software projects that fail don't fail because of bad engineering. They fail because nobody specified the correct thing to build. "Make it user-friendly" is not a specification. "It's like Uber for dog walkers" is not a specification either. It's just a vibes pitch. The entire discipline of software engineering — agile, sprint planning, and so on — evolved as a way of forcing specification out of vague human language. We need mechanisms for converting vague human intent into instructions precise enough that code can be written against them.

    That vagueness problem has always been there. What's new is that the friction of implementation is changing. When building something took six months and at best half a million dollars, organizations were forced to think really carefully about what they wanted. The cost of building acted like a filter on the quality of the spec. If you take away the cost of building, as AI is doing, that filter is going to disappear. The incentive to specify just evaporated in all of your organizations, and the cost of specifying really badly is going to keep compounding faster than ever — because now you can build the wrong thing at unprecedented speed and scale. A vibe-coded app can take an afternoon and $20 in API calls, and if the spec is wrong, you did not save six months. You wasted an afternoon and perhaps launched something that will harm customers because the spec was never right.

    This is the inversion we need to pay more attention to, because it tells us a lot about where jobs are headed. The scarce resource in software is not the ability to write code. It's the ability to define what the code should do. And funnily enough, that is part of why knowledge work is starting to collapse into a blurry job family — because the ability to specify is something we all need to do, not just engineers.

    The person who can take a vague business need and translate it into a spec is the new center of gravity in the organization. It doesn't matter what their title is. It's not obviously the person who writes the code — that's disappearing. It's not the person who reviews the pull requests, because increasingly that's going to be an agent. It's the person with enough precision to direct machines and enough judgment to know whether the result actually solves the problem for customers.

    Two classes of engineer — and two classes of knowledge worker

    Two classes of engineer are emerging right now, and engineering is the tip of the iceberg. This is going to be true of the rest of knowledge work as well. Those two classes tell us where jobs are headed in software.

    The first class of engineer drives high-value tokens. These people specify precisely. They architect systems. They manage agent fleets — plural, not singular. They evaluate output against intention consistently. They hold the entire product in their heads: what it should do, who it serves, why the trade-offs are correct, and why they matter. And all they do is use AI to execute at a scale that was previously impossible.

    One of the things I want you to think about is that if we are underbuilt on software, all of our mechanisms are for underbuilt software footprints. Imagine a world where your engineers have to hold a 10x bigger software footprint in their head because AI has enabled that kind of scale. You can say yes to everything the customer wants with AI, but are your engineers, are your product managers ready to hold that level of abstraction in their heads? Because if you can specify well enough and orchestrate agents effectively, the number of things you can simultaneously build and maintain is bounded only by your judgment and attention, not by the hours in the day.

    These people are going to command extraordinary pricing power. The revenue per employee data is off the charts. I mentioned Cursor at $16 million per employee. Midjourney is at $200 million with just 11 people. Lovable is past $100 million, past $200 million soon. These are not just outliers. This is the equilibrium driven by extremely high-value AI-native workers. When one person with the right skills and the right agent infrastructure can produce what a 20-person team produced a couple of years ago, that person captures most of the value that used to be distributed across the team.

    The second class of knowledge worker — the second class of engineer — operates at very low leverage, and that leverage is degrading. Single-agent workflows, Copilot-style autocomplete, AI-assisted but not AI-directed. These engineers, these knowledge workers, are doing the same work they've always done, faster and with better tooling, and they are being commoditized.

    I just need to be honest with you: the signals are already there in the data. Entry-level postings are down something like two-thirds. New graduates represent 7% of hires, which is a historic low. 70% of hiring managers are saying AI can do the job of interns. The junior pipeline isn't narrowing at the intake — it's collapsing — because the low-leverage work that juniors used to do is the work AI handles first and best. And I want to be really clear here: I have personally seen that this is not just a junior problem. Mid-level and senior engineers who are sticking with the way they've always worked are in this exact same boat.

    The solopreneur thesis — and its limits

    Now it's time to turn our attention to one of the most popular responses to the jobs debate: the solopreneur thesis. The idea that everyone becomes effectively a solo capitalist and is able to, as a company of one, unlock tremendous value. That sounds really great, but I think it captures something real about the first class of developer and knowledge worker, and not the second class.

    The ceiling for what a single talented person can build has absolutely risen through the roof. But I think it's a thesis that only 10 to 20% of the knowledge workforce is positioned to take advantage of today. You have to have entrepreneurial instincts. You have to have deep domain expertise. And you have to have the stomach for risk and the ability to ramp on AI tools quickly. If that's you, the world is your oyster. You have never had a better chance to build cool stuff.

    But for the other 80%, the future is going to look like smaller teams with higher expectations and compressed unit economics. It's not a revolution in autonomy for them. It's not a revolution in autonomy for you if you are building with the same production model. Instead, it's just more pressure on what it takes to stay employed.

    So what is the distinction? What is the difference between the people who are in that top 10 to 20% — where the world is their oyster and they can drive high value through a company or run their own company — versus the people who don't? I think it comes down to the economic output generated per unit of human judgment. That's the bifurcation we're looking at, in a sentence. And the gap between those two classes is going to widen as agent capability increases, because agents force-multiply excellent human specification and judgment.

    That is a learnable skill. By the way, I don't believe this is written in stone. I am talking about a percentage divide I have observed in the real world. I am not talking about something I believe is inevitable. You can learn human spec and judgment. That is absolutely something that's doable. I have exercises for it. It's something you can accomplish. But I don't want to kid you — your teams need to do it if you're a leader. Individuals need to do it. The companies that are able to get from 10 to 20% to 30 to 40% of their workforce in this position are going to be much, much more competitive, because of the nonlinear value of learning human judgment as a skill, learning specification as a skill.

    Knowledge work is converging on software engineering

    In the age of AI, software engineers are just the canary in the coal mine. The entire coal mine is much bigger. Knowledge work — analysis, consulting, project management — it all runs on the same substrate that AI is already transforming in software. It happens on computers. It produces digital outputs. It follows, however loosely, that it can be described, formalized, and validated.

    Now, I know the standard objection is validation. Software has very clear built-in quality signals — code compiles or it doesn't. Knowledge work is much vaguer. That doesn't hold in 2026. Two forces are converging to break that assumption.

    First, a huge fraction of knowledge work exists because large organizations need to manage themselves. The reports, the slide decks, the status updates — this is the connective tissue of coordination. It's a nervous system that large companies need to function. When organizations get leaner — which is one of the things I've been talking about a lot, AI is making them leaner and we are seeing it across the board at big companies — that coordination work isn't going to transform with AI. It just deletes. Brook's Law ends up working in reverse. Brook's Law talks about how complicated it is to coordinate large numbers of people and how that scales exponentially. Well, if you cut down the number of people and make your team leaner, it turns out you have exponential gains in the ability to coordinate efficiently. The work was not valuable in itself. It was valuable because the organization was too big to function without it. And the organization was big because it needed a lot of production labor to sustain the value. If you simplify the organization and make it leaner, all of that coordination work can be deleted.

    Second, the knowledge work that does remain — the analysis, the strategy, the judgment calls — can be made more verifiable. Consider what's already happening in financial services. A portfolio strategy used to live in a deck and a set of quarterly conversations. Now it lives in a model with defined inputs, testable assumptions, and measurable outputs. The strategy has effectively become a specification. And once it's a spec, you can validate it against data, run scenarios against it, and measure whether the execution of that financial strategy matched your intent.

    Legal is following the same path. Contract review is becoming pattern matching against structured playbooks. Compliance is becoming continuous automated audits against codified rules. Marketing is becoming experimental design with a measurable conversion funnel.

    The mechanism is straightforward. You take knowledge work outputs that used to be evaluated by vibes and you structure them as a set of testable claims or measurable specs, and suddenly they are subject to the same quality signals that make software verifiable. I'm not saying every piece of knowledge work can be automated in exactly this way tomorrow. But every year that frontier is moving forward faster and faster, and the work that resists structuring tends to be exactly the high-judgment, high-context work that only the most capable people were doing anyway.

    So knowledge work is converging on software — not because consultants will all learn to code, but because the underlying cognitive task is actually the same thing. You're translating vague human intent into precise enough instructions that human or machine systems can execute them. The person specifying a product feature and the person specifying a business strategy are doing the same work, just at a different level of abstraction. As the tools of structuring, testing, and validating knowledge work get better, the distinction between those two is going to collapse very, very quickly. And with it is going to collapse the insulation that non-engineering knowledge workers might assume they have. We're all in the same boat with engineering now. It's not a different boat. We're all working with AI agents.

    What to do about it: five practical principles

    Obviously, if knowledge work is converging like I say, the practical question from a jobs perspective is what do you do about it? The answer is not "learn to code." That's the wrong advice. It's been the wrong advice for a while. Engineers have spent 50 years developing disciplines around a problem that knowledge workers are only now running into. And I think we can learn from the engineering discipline how to be precise enough that a system can execute intent.

    First: hit the right level of abstraction and learn to spec your work the way engineers spec features. A product manager who writes "improve the onboarding flow" is operating at the wrong level of abstraction and is producing the same category of failure as a developer who writes "just make it better." Engineers learned painfully to write good acceptance criteria — specific, testable conditions that define done. We all need to do that as we start working with agents. This is becoming one of the single most transferable skills in business, and you should start practicing writing specs today. And if you're a leader listening to this, that goes for you too. Your strategy needs to be specable. You should be able to say, "This is the success criteria." I have seen a lot of very terrible strategy board decks in my time, and I think this would generally improve them.

    Second: learn to work with compute — don't just learn about compute. A high-value AI worker, a high-value engineer who knows how to use tokens well, is not valuable because they know Python or JavaScript or Rust. They're valuable because they understand what AI can and cannot do, how to structure a task so an agent can get it done, and how to evaluate whether what the agent did was correct. Knowledge workers are going to need that same literacy. If you're a financial analyst, you should be running your models through AI and learning where they fail — which assumptions they miss, which edge cases they ignore. You should be testing contract review agents against your own judgment. The goal is not to get to a one-to-one replacement with your judgment. It's to understand the machine well enough to direct it, guide it, guardrail it, and catch it when it makes mistakes.

    Third: make your outputs verifiable. I know some people are running the other way here. There are knowledge workers who are deliberately sabotaging AI on their teams because they don't feel like they'll have jobs. That is a fault of leadership. Leadership needs to give people the support to lean in here, because you will not be able to automate very quickly if you cannot figure out how to make the dirty details of your day-to-day work verifiable. Engineers write tests. A function either returns the right value or it doesn't. Knowledge workers need to develop the equivalent — structured outputs with built-in validation. You should have data sources on your market analysis. A project plan should include measurable milestones. And funny enough, we've been trying to say this for a while as knowledge workers. All of the eye-rolling around OKRs is a little bit an early preview of making your outputs more verifiable. Except now we really have to do it.

    Fourth: learn to think in systems, not documents. The deliverable of work used to be a document of some sort for almost everybody who is not an engineer. Now you need to think in terms of the larger system that your work is driving. A deck requires a person who produces it every quarter. A system requires a person to specify it once and maintain it when conditions change. Knowledge workers who think in terms of systems — what are the inputs, what are the rules, what triggers action, how do you know it's working — they are going to build things that compound. Even outside of engineering, knowledge workers who think in terms of documents are just going to produce AI that generates stuff faster, but it's the same old stuff. We need to start teaching thinking in systems as a core skill for every knowledge worker.

    Fifth: audit your role for coordination overhead. If your honest assessment is that most of your work exists because your organization is complex enough to require it — you have to align stakeholders, you have to translate between departments, you have to produce reports that synthesize information from lots of teams — you're really exposed in the age of AI. It's not because you're bad at your job. It's because the organizational complexity that justifies your job is the same thing that AI makes unnecessary. The question to ask is this: if my company were half or a quarter of its current size, would my role exist? If the answer is no, the value you provide is likely linked to coordination, and coordination is the first casualty in leaner organizations.

    OpenAI is already making its internal systems so transparent to knowledge workers that they don't have to go and query Slack messages at the company. They don't have to go and look for context from a meeting. They can just hit the internal data system with an agent-driven search and get exactly what they need from 50 or 60 different stakeholders and come back. That is where organizations are starting to move. You don't have to have a meeting to get coordinated. You hit agentic search and you see the data in front of you.

    The move in that situation is not to panic. It's to migrate toward work that creates direct value. Look for ways you can ring the cash register. How can you build customer-facing, revenue-generating products? How can you start to think about your work in terms of driving the direction of the business or getting the data that drives the direction of the business? There are lots of ways to do this that don't necessarily mean you're a product manager. Any complex business will have a lot of operational arms that have to still exist. Finance is still going to exist. These functions aren't going anywhere. Look for how you can be more directly value-producing in those areas.

    None of this requires a computer science degree. All of it requires adopting an engineering mindset. And knowledge work, to be honest, has resisted that for decades. I have lost track of the number of conversations I've had with marketers and customer service folks over the years where they have said, "Engineering is just too hard. I couldn't be that precise." I've got bad news. We all need to be that precise now. We all need to be testable. We all need to be falsifiable. We all need to understand our tools well enough to know when they're wrong.

    The J-curve: we are in the productivity trough

    So if we step back from the details of our day-to-day jobs, what does the larger productivity and jobs picture look like? Where is this conflict around jobs and AI playing out in the real world?

    We are in the trough of a J-curve right now. Census Bureau research on manufacturing has found AI deployment initially reduces productivity by an average of 1.3 percentage points — and some firms drop as much as 60 points before they start to recover. The METR study I shared earlier this week talked about the idea that there are dark factories where AI agents not only produce all the code but review all the code. That same study found that experienced developers were 19% slower with AI tools despite believing they were 24% faster. They just didn't understand. This is the J-curve of technology adoption. Productivity dips before it surges, and we are in the dip.

    What's interesting is that because AI is moving so fast and because it's influencing the economy so widely, we know this is a J-curve and not a permanent degradation — because we can literally see the companies that have figured this out and gotten to massive multiples. We don't have to hypothesize about Midjourney. We don't have to create a hypothetical about Cursor. The employees at those organizations really are that productive, and you can see it in the numbers.

    So what comes after for all the rest of us who don't work at Midjourney and Cursor? Given the pace of AI capability scaling — agents going from bug fixes to multi-hour sustained engineering in under a year, three-person teams shipping what 10-person teams shipped last year or 20-person teams — my bet is that this entire thing compresses. That has been the story of this cycle. The software J-curve, the adoption cost that you face before you get fluent, even for the rest of the economy, even for non-native AI companies, is going to compress into something like 18 to 24 months. And early adopters are going to be past the bottom already.

    The companies that figure out spec-driven development and agent orchestration don't just get to be more efficient — they get to operate at speed and productivity ratios that make traditional organizations look dead in the water. A 10 to 80x revenue per employee gap opens up. One of the things that matters here is that the J-curve really is shaped like a J. When you get past the bottom, you start to accelerate really, really quickly because agent gains start to multiply cleanly across your business.

    The historical parallel: telephone operators, not ATMs

    So if we look at the broad arc of history, what kind of historical analog actually makes sense for us here? The historical parallel that fits best is not the story of the invention of ATMs and how that affected bank tellers. It's not the story of calculators and how that affected mathematicians. It's actually the story of telephone operators in the 1920s. Those jobs did not disappear overnight. But the people who held those jobs — predominantly women and working class at the time — found themselves a decade later in lower-paying occupations or out of the workforce entirely. Overall employment grew. New categories of work emerged. But for the individuals in the crosshairs, that was cold comfort. It did not matter for those women.

    I think we're in a similar moment, but I think we have more tools to support each other. And I think it's incumbent upon leadership to do a better job than we did in the 1920s.

    The bifurcation is already in the data — and the window is closing

    The economy is going to create more software than ever, more systems running on computers than ever. It will probably be two or three orders of magnitude what we have today. Computers will remain more central to human society than at any point in history. That part of the story is genuinely structurally optimistic, because compute creates leverage and leverage creates abundance for us.

    But more jobs in the economy and your individual job are very different things. The bifurcation is already there in the data. AI-native companies are exploding and picking up pieces of the economic pie that traditional companies are deserting. That is why you see the collapse in the SaaS stock market over the past couple of weeks. The gap between engineers who can drive high-value tokens is literally $285 billion — which is the amount that Claude was able to wipe off of traditional SaaS stocks by releasing a 200-line prompt on legal work. I did a whole video on that. The point here is not an individual stock drop. Whether or not it recovers is not my problem right now. The point is to think about knowledge workers and understand that we need to have a much more intentional conversation to ensure that the 70 or 80% of knowledge workers who are not pushing high-value tokens right now get the skills to do so.

    How can we think about the distribution of our teams and look at each person on that team as someone who can level up in their agent fluency, someone who can level up in their ability to write specs and understand intent — because that is the new skill that's going to matter. And there is no reason why we have to leave people behind on that. It absolutely is a skill issue. It's a learnable skill.

    This transition is going to happen whether we prepare for it, whether we support our teams or not. The only variable is which side of the bifurcation we're going to end up on, and whether we as company leaders are going to lean in and support our teams in that transition — whether we as individuals who are trying our best to get through this AI transition are able to learn the skill to start to think in terms of giving clear intent and goals and constraints in our work, rather than doing the work itself.

    And that window is closing faster because AI agent capability gains keep accelerating. The technology is not going to wait for organizations and individuals to catch up. We have to lean in and help each other. If you are on a team and you understand what I'm saying, it is on you to help your colleagues on the team to understand this better. If you're a leader, it is on you to think about how you build systems that support everyone in your organization. And if you are stuck, it is on you to figure out how you can take at least a single step toward understanding what it means to give the agent a job and watch it do the work. It might be as simple as trying Claude in Excel and watching it create something. Maybe that's the simplest way to start.

    The larger point is that you need to believe that there is hope at the end of the tunnel, and that the company you're operating at, the job that you're doing, is something you can pivot. If you think about it as tackling a larger problem and specifying where your agent needs to go to create value, that's on us to do. The agent capability is going to be there. It is on us to specify enough of what we want that we can create tremendous value with all of this compute capability that we have.

    We need to have better strategies. We need to think bigger. It is actually rational to think about boiling the ocean. We were always told as companies, as leaders, as product managers: don't boil the ocean in your strategy. Well, if you have the cost of production falling to zero on software, why not think big? Why not think courageously? Why not think about producing more value? That is a bold goal that can actually catalyze a lot of transformational change in the ways I'm talking about. It can catalyze teams to work more leanly. It can catalyze individuals to start to think about how they can stretch and grow and define what agents do for them so they can do more and lean more into the direct production of value.

    That is where we need to go. That is why the future of jobs is not about production of code or production of work. It is about good judgment to specify where agents are going.


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