Ivan on Tech analyzes Bitcoin's recovery above $80K and broader market trends
Ivan on Tech (Ivan) presents a solo market update covering Bitcoin's recovery, stock market trends, post-midterm historical patterns, and various crypto and tech sector developments.
Summary
Ivan opens by noting Bitcoin's recovery above $80,000 after dropping to $75,000 earlier in the week, contrasting the sudden return of bullish sentiment with the widespread bearishness expressed by commentators just days prior. He argues for independent thinking and trend-following as the core investment strategy, applying this framework across crypto, tech stocks, and broader indices. He observes that while the S&P 500 is holding its bull trend and approaching all-time highs, NASDAQ has flipped bearish, dragged down by weakness across AI infrastructure and major tech names. He also covers the post-midterm historical pattern of stock market strength, the Democrats' return to crypto regulation via a proposed "Crypto Investor Bill of Rights," and the ongoing legal dispute between Justin Sun and World Liberty Financial over frozen tokens and alleged terms violations.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin Recovers Above $80K — Bullish Sentiment Returns
Ivan: Bitcoin is above $80K. Bitcoin has basically recovered this massive loss from last week — and also this week, to be fair. We went all the way to $75K, and now we're back above $80K. And now all of the bullish scenarios, all the bullish narratives come out. Isn't it crazy that just a few days ago — you remember all the bearishness? Anam went bearish. Jason Calacanis being bearish. Everyone bearish all the time just a few days ago. And guess what? Suddenly everyone is in a way coming back. Coming back. Maybe the Santa rally is going to happen no matter what.
So you understand — this strategy is so important to have. You need to have a very clear view of the market. Have your own opinion. Be an independent thinker. That's what we've been doing on this channel. If you listen to our channel, you actually use your brain. You use your ears. You understand that we do have an independent approach here, so that we can be bearish when it is a bear market — last October we were bearish — and bullish when a new bull market is starting. Since the summer, since we went below the 200-week Moving Average, we're bullish.
And here you have Anam calling for a drop. Benjamin Cowan — big shout out — I guess he wants another low in Q4. Jason Calacanis says Bitcoin is going to crash. Arthur Hayes sold all of his altcoins. Meanwhile, Bull Mania: clarity, clear strategy, clear rules.
S&P 500 vs. NASDAQ — Bull and Bear Trends Diverge
S&P also had a big fat green candle. We love the S&P. S&P held the bull trend. Let's look at NASDAQ. NASDAQ, as you remember, went into the bear, and we don't like bear. Whenever there is bear, we're out. So we're bullish on the stock market, but S&P, not NASDAQ. NASDAQ — we're not bullish. NASDAQ, we don't like bear trend.
I've been telling you all the time: I don't like bear trend. It's very important to be in a bull trend, especially in a bull market. Very simple. We follow the strategy. The strategy is very clear. There's literally nothing too complex here — being bullish in a bull trend and bearish in a bear trend. People say, "Oh, but should I really be out of NASDAQ if it's in a bearish trend?" Yes. It's a bear trend. I don't care about super intelligence. I love AI. I use AI every day. I spend too much money on AI. But still — it's a bear trend, so we're out. We don't care about AI super intelligence, all of the marketing. We're out if it is a bear trend.
So NASDAQ is a bad trend, as you can see. Maybe it goes back up again and flips to a bull trend — then we're going to love it. But you see the difference with S&P, for example. S&P remained bull and S&P is in a very nice green formation.
The same is true in crypto. I keep giving you the example because people are always shocked when I say that I want to be in a bull trend. Hyperliquid — bull trend. Lighter, which is kind of doing the same but another project — is bear. So of course you want to be in Hyperliquid, and so on and so forth. Even in these shiny assets which we love, if they go bear trend, we're bearish. It's very simple. That doesn't mean that you have to be in cash. That doesn't mean you have to buy dollars. It means that you position somewhere where it's bullish. There are many assets that are bullish. If the bull market continues, your bull asset is also going to pump. You don't have to beg for your bear tragedy to come back and be stuck in this bear prison.
Post-Midterm Historical Pattern — Tom Lee on Markets
Now, what's very important to analyze is the coming months, because historically the coming months are going to be monumental. Whenever you have midterms, looking at the data, looking at all of the previous midterms, the stock market six months after midterm — big Valhalla. Approximately 10%. Obviously this is something that is likely to happen. It's not guaranteed — nothing is guaranteed in life — but we look at probabilities. The highest probability is that we do see continuation to the upside.
And by the way, whenever we have some kind of situation where people are worried and concerned, they listen to good analysis and get more clarity. This guy said yesterday: "If you realize it, the fact that Ivan on Tech does his market updates live streaming is key. We are in a world where pseudo market gurus record several clips in advance with different views and publish later the one that fits the narrative the most." True. It's happening.
We love Tom Lee, and Tom Lee is bullish. Well, we love him in a bull market. In the bear market he's going to wreck you — we warned about that. But in the bull, we love Tom Lee. Listen to this:
Tom Lee: "I think it's healthy, and it's kind of expected. I know a lot of people thought a blue tsunami might be bad for markets, but there are many reasons why this is actually a positive outcome for stocks. One is I think it's going to force Washington to sort of now negotiate, which is a good thing. I think that's actually healthy. But I think one thing that people haven't talked enough about is the fact that this might also take pressure off the Fed. I think the Fed now can work more independently. We don't have to worry about FOMC members doing credibility hikes. I think that's the reason why markets can also rally pretty strong."
Ivan: True. The Fed becomes more in a position of calmness where you have a split of power between the president and the Congress. This is going to be way easier for the Fed to look at what's happening when it has two bosses. If it's just one boss, it's pressured. Now it's two bosses — less pressure.
Politics, Affordability, and Why Politicians Can't Deliver It
At the end of the day, the market doesn't really care about politics. Politics is for the pleb — that's the biggest, most important realization you can have. Democrats speak about affordability. Do you really think Democrats are going to give you affordability? Affordability is the biggest talking point. All the politicians know you've got to speak about affordability. But no one is going to give you affordability. How are they going to give you affordability? There's no way.
Let's say you're a Democrat or a bit socialistic. What can you do? You can try taxing. You can try some billionaire tax. But at the end of the day, the billionaire creates the things that everyone wants to buy. If he doesn't create, there is nothing to buy anyway. So there's a deficit.
The only way to create affordability is to have more goods and services. How do you get more goods and services? If there is a lot of supply of goods and services, you're going to have affordability. That's the definition. It's not redistribution. You need to create an oversupply of goods and services. Then the price of them goes down. Just like you have a shitcoin and the founder mints way more of that shitcoin — the price is going to go down. You have affordability in your shitcoin. The same thing with a car, with a house. You want affordability in housing, you cannot have rent control.
In Sweden, they have rent control. It's very bad in Stockholm. Good luck getting an apartment. They have rent control, which means that if you have a rental agreement in Stockholm, you never leave. Even if you wanted to leave, you're not going to leave, because that rental agreement — you're never going to get it again. It's rent controlled. You have it, but you're not moving. So there's no housing. You want housing cheap, you need to increase the supply. Think back to the shitcoin analogy.
Anyway, we are an apolitical channel. I'm just trying to educate. We're more educational than political. Whoever you think is going to change your life — it's not a politician. There is never a politician. No one's coming to save you. Not Trump, not anyone. You need to control your destiny. If you don't want tax, move somewhere where there's no tax. You want more safety, you need to pick and choose. You need to reward countries with your money. That's the only way. Money talks. You want to affect something — go where it's good for you, and you reward the country with your money. They understand, "Holy crap, we're doing something right." You've got to incentivize them.
Democrats Return to Crypto — Investor Bill of Rights
Now, there is the start of Democrats being active in politics again. They've been kind of offline for the past two years. Now they're coming back. Their first crypto-related thing is that they want to do a Crypto Investor Bill of Rights. For example, all exchanges need to have withdrawals within 24 hours. Customer assets need to be segregated and bankruptcy remote. Monthly proof of reserves with auditor attestation. I mean, it's really basic stuff. Overall it sounds constructive.
We have Maxine Waters back. She kissed SBF — or hugged him, I think she kissed him on the cheek at least. That's what we've seen. She's back in the game. She's going to be regulating crypto. Let's see what's going to happen. We've been through the rodeo before. It may be tough for some crypto companies in the US. Brian Armstrong needs to be prepared.
But we're not the main target. The Democrats are coming for AI as the number one target. Crypto is a bit of a secondary target because no one really cares about us right now. It's kind of the benefit of being in a bear market — you're under the radar. These data centers, though, they are top of the agenda. The Democrats are going to come for all of the AI stuff. That's going to be number one.
Top of the Democratic agenda on day one: a pause on advanced AI development, regulation of this out-of-control industry, and a ban on artificial intelligence. Let's see if that's going to happen. Probably not. At the end of the day, this is a slogan. How are Democrats going to stop AI? Really? No one's going to stop AI. Is there going to be some deal? Probably. Will they have to get paid somehow? Probably some campaign donation. You cannot stop AI. You're going to pause artificial intelligence? What are they speaking about?
I remember just in 2022 — you guys remember 2021? All you devs, coding front end and back end by hand. Some dude doing a React component. It sounds crazy now. "Let me create a new React component. It's going to take five weeks." Then the guy needs two weeks to refactor his React component. He built a React component for five weeks. Now he needs to refactor it. Now with AI, this React component stuff is done in five minutes. And no complaining either. I remember back in the day you had a front-end dev — he needs to plan, he has best practices, so many best practices. Even though he follows all best practices, he still has to refactor. What do you mean? You just built it for five weeks. Why is it refactoring again? "Oh, because we need clean code, man." So you understand — are the Democrats going to go back to coding front end manually? Nothing's going to change. No one's going to remove AI. Don't worry. It's a slogan for the pleb. The pleb needs a slogan. The pleb is worried his job is going to be lost.
There is an exception to all of this, and that's a nonconventional, radical new party. That one is a real threat. If a new party is created and they are super pissed because of AI and they are growing fast and they are radical — okay, I would take that seriously. But Democrat, Republican — the difference is not that big at the end of the day. It's a uniparty. You think you have two parties, you have one. But if there's something new created, I'll listen.
Oil Drops, Post-Midterm Data, and Sector Breakdown
Oil is dropping. This is good. Oil has dropped 16 to 18% from its recent high. Brent is now back under $95. Bullish. Doesn't matter Republican or Democrat — we will get bullishness after midterm. We need to have a view of the market based on data, and the data says bullish after midterm. And here you actually have data points. This is a big difference versus the four-year cycle in Bitcoin, where you have like three data points. Here with the stock market bullish after midterm, you have like 80 years of data points. So it's a bit different.
Now let's go through the strategy briefing. Here is the big picture. Wall Street buys the post-election result. Everything AI-related when it comes to infrastructure is not doing well. That's why NASDAQ is dumping. But things like Apple, Microsoft — the big dogs — they're doing well.
Let's check some other stocks. CoreWeave — wrecked. MicroStrategy — let's see. Robo-strategy, that company that invests in private markets for robotics — a bit outside of this AI infra theme. SanDisk — wrecked since the bear flip, stay out. ALAB — wrecked since the bear flip. Once you have a bear flip, you've got to be careful. Even if sometimes it looks like it's coming back, the risk-reward is not good if it's a bear trend. Sometimes it flips bear and people say, "Ivan, it's coming back." Listen — take it easy. Number one, it's not a bull flip yet. And at the end of the day, there are other things in a bull trend that you can still participate in. Why be so stubborn to hold something in bear?
It may come back to bull — it happens all the time. Something goes bear, then goes quickly back to bull. It's not some kind of exception. It happens many times. But then it's just the cost of insurance. If you have a bear and then a quick bull, you're going to be entering a bit higher than you exited. That's the cost of insurance. And in many cases, it goes bear and then keeps falling, so the bull flip actually goes below the bear flip. So that's something to keep an eye on.
Intel — collapse. Be careful. Bear trend. Down 36% since the bear flip. Then people ask me why I'm not in bear trends. I'm just telling you here. Micron — it's been kind of coming back, maybe it's going to come back, and then nope, not going to come back because it's bearish. Marvell — down. AMD — be careful. I know there are many people bullish on AMD, but it is a bear trend. It was a good bull trend since April — fantastic, up 168%. Bear is bearish, so we're careful. Broadcom — bear trend. Nvidia just went bear trend. Amazon — let's see what happens here. If it goes to bull, then this bear flip quickly goes to bull. It can happen. But it is still bear. Meta just went into bear. So actually all of tech is not really looking too great.
Google — deep bear. Tesla — bullish. But since the Trump result, let's see if we can hold the bull position. Palantir is still bullish. Maybe Palantir — surveillance is always going to be needed, especially in a more digital world. You need more surveillance. Bullish surveillance, basically, with all of the AI. SpaceX — still technically bull trend, but on the weekly it's too new of a chart. Daily is better, and daily is going to bear.
So that's why NASDAQ is not really holding up too well. All of this translates into NASDAQ being bear on the weekly also. Meanwhile, S&P is not that connected to tech — it's massively connected to tech, don't get me wrong, but it's not only tech. That's why NASDAQ is now pushing to bear while S&P is very close to going to all-time high. It just needs 2%, and it did 1.5% yesterday. So this deviation between S&P and NASDAQ will be interesting to see.
Why S&P 500 Is Outperforming NASDAQ Right Now
Let me check Bullmania AI — why is S&P 500 holding up so nicely while NASDAQ falls? What sectors within S&P 500 are pumping now? Let's see a breakdown of what is holding up S&P and actually pushing it to new highs.
S&P is holding up better than NASDAQ right now because the market is rotating hard out of AI into a much broader set of sectors. A bit of everything. Consumer discretionary doing well. Financials doing well. Communication services doing well. Consumer staples doing well. Real estate doing well — steady defensive. Healthcare, financials. Over the past month, healthcare is up 14%, financials up 11%, tech is down 12%.
So here is where you wish you would be a bit more diversified. The pleb doesn't want diversification when something is pumping. When he thinks he's all in on something that's not doing well, then the pleb thinks, "Ah man, should have diversified." When the pleb enters, he doesn't want a stop-loss. He thinks that a stop-loss is going to hurt his gains. Then when the pleb loses 90% of the portfolio because of a crazy bear trend he never intended to be in, he thinks, "Man, stop-loss was good. Stop-loss was good."
I see it with new members. When new members join our community, they're like, "Ah man, stop-loss is so bad. Stop-loss got me out." They're crying. Then as they learn more, they understand — "Holy crap, this thing went down another 80%." And then: "Mr. Stop-loss, thank you very much. You saved me."
Also, if you manage risk — if you calculate your risk, position size, stop-loss — you're not that worried. You can actually take bets. If you want higher risk, you could have a looser stop-loss. Just have a stop. Just understand your risk. Understand that your risk is capped, and be at peace with your downside.
The reason why people are holding so much in a downtrend — losing 80%, 75% — hoping and praying in this mental prison that their position is going to come back, is because they never came to peace with the potential loss at the start of the trade. When they start the trade, their brain cannot conceive the loss. Which means that the loss is unlimited. They never pull the trigger and exit the losing position because even the smallest loss — they haven't come to peace with it, which means it's uncomfortable to act on it and close the position.
When you create a position, you should define your maximum risk and then come to peace with the fact that it may happen. It's a real possibility. Even with the best risk management, even with the best trading, you're still going to have losing trades. It's part of any system. The best investor, the best trader in the world — they have losing trades. So when you enter a position, define your risk, define your stop-loss, ensure that you are at peace with that stop-loss hitting. Then you're never in a position where you hold something down 80%.
Justin Sun vs. World Liberty Financial — The Full Story
Now let's speak about what happened to our dear Justin Sun and his fantastic coins that he doesn't have access to. Justin Sun versus World Liberty Financial. This is a story that has been going on for months.
In 2024, World Liberty Financial was still trying to get traction. Justin Sun stepped in as one of its earliest and largest external backers. In November 2024, he agreed to buy roughly $30 million of tokens. He later increased the total to $45 million. He was named an advisor. The marketing at the time emphasized an American DeFi project — but he's Chinese, so I don't know how that makes sense, but okay. Around 2025, an Abu Dhabi-linked vehicle reportedly took a large stake valued around $500 million. When World Liberty Finance began trading more openly around September 2025, Sun's position carried a large theoretical market value.
But things turned for the worse. World Liberty Financial restricted Justin Sun's tokens. They basically froze his coin accounts. Sun said he was testing a transfer. The project pointed to alleged terms violations. Unlocked tokens were frozen. Locked holdings were affected.
In April, Sun sued World Liberty Finance trying to get the money back. Counter-suit — World Liberty Finance sued back. It accused Sun of a "scorched earth pressure campaign" and alleged improper token transfer.
What do they claim Sun broke in terms of the agreement? World Liberty Financial says Justin Sun breached the token purchase agreement, the token unlock agreement, and publicly available terms of sale — mainly through prohibited transfers, straw purchases, and short-selling activity. So basically, if you have a buyer of the coin, according to the agreement he cannot then resell his locked allocation. They are saying that he resold. Shortly before around September 1st, Sun moved tokens and related large USDT flows and received USDT. Sun resold. World Liberty Finance says any transfer that violated the lockup transfer restrictions is null and void.
The token unlock agreement and terms of sale explicitly let World Liberty Finance, in its sole discretion, decline to unlock, restrict access, or freeze the wallet. Contrary to representations made to World Liberty Finance, Sun's entities allegedly acquired certain tokens on behalf of investors via intermediaries. And short-selling or similar bets against World Liberty Finance. There you go. That's the fight. Who's right? Who's wrong? Who the hell knows?
But Elizabeth Warren probably would like a meeting with Justin Sun to see if there's some collaboration opportunity. The enemy of your enemy is your friend. So Justin Sun and Pocahontas — they're one. They're one.
Democrats Probe Trump Crypto Ventures — AI Regulation Plans
Democrats are preparing probes into Trump crypto ventures. Bloomberg and FTC report: Democrats plan aggressive investigations into Trump crypto ventures. World Liberty Finance — they're going to come after you. And it's interesting — maybe here, Elizabeth Warren can collaborate with Justin Sun. Have you guys been following the story of Justin Sun and Trump? Because they have a big problem. They're suing each other left and right.
Last night, Sun's attorney filed a motion with the court seeking sanctions against World Liberty Financial. The reason: it only disclosed incorrectly their ownership, which basically made him sue them in the wrong venue, and now he needs to re-sue in another venue.
And top of the Democratic agenda on day one: a pause on advanced AI development, regulation of this out-of-control industry, and a ban on artificial intelligence. Let's see if that's going to happen. Probably not. At the end of the day, this is a slogan. No one's going to stop AI. No one's going to stop AI. You're going to pause artificial intelligence? What are they speaking about? You're going to go back to sticks and stones?
Bank of England Rate Decision — Brief Commentary
Ivan, UK news is coming out in 15 minutes. You mean like the rate decision? It's the Bank of England — they're going to do some rate decision. They're going to hike. They're going to hike. Why are you so excited? I mean, what's the urgency here? If you have a mortgage in the UK, then it's important — you're going to pay more. For us as international investors looking at the crypto market and S&P, the Bank of England doesn't matter too much. It's already priced in anyway. That's it.
If you locked in a five-year mortgage deal during the summer — thank God for that. But it's also a super high rate. When you lock in a rate, you normally have to pay more than the variable rate. The bank is not going to give you a free lunch. They price the locked rates so that if rates go up, they still make money from you. So if you locked in, you already decided on a higher rate than the variable rate. What was good was to lock in when interest rates were basically zero. That was very good. Now the rates are quite high anyway for the past three or four years. Banks normally, even if you lock in your rate, they still make money because they price the lock-in rate so that with the highest likelihood you're still going to pay enough. You basically pay more so you have less risk, and the bank prices that so that they're likely still going to profit. It's kind of like financial markets — you buy an option, it's priced. There's a price to remove your risk.
Hyperliquid L2 — Bull Market Hustle
Why does Hyperliquid need an L2? I don't know. They have an L2. L2 for Hyperliquid is like L2 for Ethereum. ETH also doesn't need L2. If Solana doesn't need L2, Hyperliquid doesn't need L2. There is a need for L2 maybe if there's a new project that wants to raise money and say they are like a Hyperliquid L2. They're saying they're accelerating Hyperliquid. But really, what are they accelerating?
It looks like an ICO website. "Oh, Hyper EVM is so slow. Look at how fast we are." Like 2017. It may pump in the bull market. This kind of thing is going to be very good in the bull market. Now, maybe it is good — I don't know. Is this endorsed by Hyperliquid or not? I don't see Hyperliquid following it. But in the bull market, it's probably going to be good anyway. You understand? In a bull market, just look at the trend. That's it. Don't worry too much about whether it's needed or not needed. That's not the key question.