Alessio Rastani argues Bitcoin must drop below $60K before any true bull run to $1 million
Trader and market analyst Alessio Rastani gives his view on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, responding to analysts calling for a move to $1 million.
Summary
Alessio Rastani, recording from the Scottish Highlands near Fort William, responds to analysts claiming Bitcoin has already begun a multi-year bull market run toward $1 million. While he does not rule out Bitcoin eventually reaching $1 million, he argues that timeframe is 5–10 years away, not imminent. His central objection is that the current rally does not have the conditions — specifically extreme fear, pessimism, and much lower price levels — required to launch a genuine multi-year bull market. He warns against "linear extrapolation," the assumption that an uptrend will continue uninterrupted, and suggests Bitcoin may need to drop below $60K before any true long-term rally can begin. He also presents an Elliott Wave scenario in which the current bounce is a B-wave that could extend into 2027 before a C-wave drop takes Bitcoin to new lows.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Introduction from the Scottish Highlands
Alessio Rastani: Hey guys. Hope you're well. I'm making a quick video for you about Bitcoin. In this video, I want to respond to what some analysts are saying — that Bitcoin is now on its way to a million dollars. In case you're wondering where I am, I'm in this beautiful part of Scotland near Fort William. If you've never been to the Highlands of Scotland, I highly recommend it. It's just amazing, with beautiful waterfalls.
Responding to the $1 million Bitcoin call
All right, let's talk about Bitcoin. What I've heard is that some analysts out there are saying that Bitcoin is now starting a multi-year uptrend and bull market towards — wait for it — a million dollars. Again, that is their view according to some analysts out there. So what I want to discuss with you very briefly is whether I think this view is correct, and is it even likely.
The positives: support levels holding
Now, before I explain the problems I have with this ultra-bullish view about Bitcoin, let me explain that there are some positives as well. It is true that Bitcoin has dropped to a very important support level — for example, the 200-week moving average. That green line is a level that Bitcoin usually drops down to. It has also managed to bounce off an important trend line support right there — a multi-year trend line. So it's bounced off from that level, and so far it is holding that support at the trend line and also at the 200 moving average. So there are some positives right now on Bitcoin which may result in a strong rally of some sort.
Why the $1 million bull market view is premature
But the question is: is this rally or bounce on Bitcoin going to go to, for example, a million dollars in the next few years — which is, by the way, the view of some analysts out there?
The reason why I disagree with this view is quite simple. Firstly, am I saying that Bitcoin cannot go to a million dollars? No, absolutely not. I actually think that Bitcoin could eventually, in the next 5 to 10 years in the long term, go to a million dollars — at least half a million. So by no means am I ruling out the possibility of Bitcoin going to a million. I think in the long term, possibly in the next 5 to 10 years, there is a strong likelihood that Bitcoin could eventually go to a million dollars.
However, here's the difference. Here's where I differ in my view from these other analysts. They're saying that Bitcoin has already started that bull market rally towards a million. In my view, that ultra-bullish view of Bitcoin is extremely mistaken. Because for Bitcoin to go to a million dollars, it has to first drop below $60K.
The danger of linear extrapolation
A lot of analysts out there — especially the ones right now who think that Bitcoin has already started this uptrend towards $500,000 and a million dollars — are saying that this long-term bull market in Bitcoin, which started way back in 2009, will just continue without interruption towards a million dollars. This is the mistaken assumption of what's called linear extrapolation. Linear extrapolation is when people assume that markets will just follow a linear, common-sense path towards much higher levels. In other words, they think that an uptrend will continue without any interruption.
If there's one thing we know about markets, it's that they're nonlinear. So this view that markets will just follow a linear, predictable path to much higher levels is dangerous and also mistaken. I would urge caution against that view.
Conditions needed for a genuine bull market
In order for Bitcoin to start a multi-year rally towards a million dollars, you would need to see a lot of extreme fear and pessimism — which we're not getting right now. Sentiment on Bitcoin right now is not that bearish. It's actually quite moderate or relatively bullish. But that's just one of the reasons.
The other reason is that in order for Bitcoin to actually start that multi-year bull market and uptrend towards a million, we would need to see much more depressed levels — much lower prices — before we get up to those heights of $500,000 or a million. We have not yet seen that. And even if we see some kind of a rally — and we are beginning to see some kind of a rally in Bitcoin, we've seen a bounce — even if this bounce or rally goes to all-time highs, there is a probability that eventually, by the end of next year, 2027, we might see Bitcoin down below $60K or indeed back to the lows we recently made. In my view, that is where Bitcoin is eventually heading in the next few years. Then we could probably see a major rally or bull market start towards $500,000 and then eventually even a million dollars — which would take us into the next 5 to 10 years. Again, this could take many years.
The Elliott Wave B-wave scenario
Now, I know some of you are probably thinking: what if Bitcoin continues to rally from here? What if Bitcoin has already bottomed at these levels we just made recently? And what if this is the rally taking us towards new all-time highs?
It is possible that the rally we're seeing on Bitcoin right now could be a B-wave — a B-wave rally. In other words, if that big drop we had on Bitcoin was a potential A-wave down, then this rally we're seeing could be the beginning of a B-wave. And this B-wave rally could potentially take us all the way to the end of this year, maybe even into next year, 2027. So it is possible that this B-wave rally could extend to next year, and then sometime in 2027, when this B-wave eventually completes and ends, we start the C-wave drop — all the way down below $60K. That is absolutely possible.
So for those of you thinking that this rally on Bitcoin, this bounce we've seen so far, could potentially continue higher — well, according to Elliott Wave theory, that is absolutely possible, if we're dealing with a B-wave within a large ABC pattern.
Long-term perspective
And again, remember: even if Bitcoin drops down eventually in the next few years below $60K or lower, that is not necessarily bad news if you have a longer-term perspective — for Bitcoin to eventually reach half a million and then eventually a million dollars.