Bitcoin dips below $80K and a discussion of wealth preservation strategies across different asset classes
A solo-hosted show on the Digital Asset News channel, co-presented with a regular guest named Jerry, covering Bitcoin's brief dip below $80,000 and a broader discussion of wealth preservation across treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin over the past 40 years.
Summary
The hosts — the Digital Asset News presenter and his co-host Jerry — open by noting that Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 before rebounding, and walk through recent liquidation data showing both long and short positions being wiped out on exchanges. They respond to Peter Schiff's claim that Bitcoin has "broken down," with Jerry arguing that a 14-day retraction does not constitute a breakdown for an asset that has only gone up over four-year cycles. The second half of the episode is devoted to a wealth preservation report Jerry produced for his investment club members, comparing the performance of US treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin across major economic downturns from the 1970s through 2022. Jerry argues that the traditional 60/40 portfolio is no longer adequate given monetary expansion, and that assets like Bitcoin, gold, and cash-flowing real estate are better stores of value. The episode closes with discussion of Arthur Hayes selling $22 million in altcoins, the possibility of lab-grown gold via CERN technology, and Jerry's project tokenizing property stays in Costa Rica.
Key Takeaways
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Bitcoin briefly falls below $80,000
Host: Well everybody, it's time to pack it in because unfortunately Bitcoin is now below $80K — but it just went back up again to above $80K. So the bears are potentially winning, but really if you take a look at it, it's just one more day in the cryptosphere. We're going to take a look at that and we're going to take a look at why this is happening yet again on a Sunday. And then we'll also take a look at wealth preservation and how that has changed over the last 40 years as it pertains to treasuries, bonds, gold, and of course now Bitcoin.
Jerry, you're looking a little bit confused, but I think it's because there's audio playing in the background of me talking. Jerry, you'll fix it. How you doing today?
Jerry: It's fixed. I had — I took the link from your post and put it on my socials for people to come and visit us, which left your YouTube channel open, and the minute you went live it started broadcasting through that.
Host: Yep. That's how it goes.
Jerry: Here we are. Hope everybody's having a great Sunday. I'm looking forward to this show. I saw the brief before and it looks perfectly on point for what we need to cover today.
Host: Well, especially today — because right now, some people didn't even know this was a thing, but we had gone below $80K until I was doing the research for today's show. I'm like, "Oh, there we go again." And as a quick reminder, $80,000 — remember back in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 — to hit $80K was just euphoria. And now it seems like it's a little bit of a panic for some people.
Now, the people that watch this channel are the long-term holders. They're the ones that buy during the dip. They're essentially the entrepreneurs of the world when it comes to these dynamics. So we take a look at this and we're like, what a big bore. But Bitcoin's below $80K, or just came up a little bit. I think it actually fell last night late. Ethereum's down, although XRP in the last 24 hours is up. Zcash for some reason always keeps going up 5%, although it is down 24% in the last 30 days. So we can see it's red across the board for the most part, maybe a little bit of gains here — 0.1, 0.2.
Why exchanges love liquidations
And the question is why? Well, it all comes down to the same thing: exchanges love to do this little trick and they love to liquidate you. They love to liquidate — especially that's why they're always promoting leverage. If they can get you more on leverage, the faster they get to liquidate you and the faster they get those fees.
I want you to see that over the last day or so, the big liquidations — which I thought was interesting — are the shorts. So you've got a ton of shorts being liquidated. You'd think it would be the longs going. But if we take a look at seven days, there are the longs. We can see that as of yesterday, you're looking at about $70 million.
And when we take a look at this, there's this old adage, Jerry — when in doubt, zoom out. I love to look at these just to remind myself how reasonable the short term is and how crazy the long term is. Over 30 days, about right. 90 days — wow. Last 90 days, we had a big one. This was in August. And of course you're like, "Wow, a billion dollars." Now watch this. When we go to all time — what the hell is that? You know what that is right there? That is the big liquidation candle where it was almost $5 billion, and it wasn't in a day — it was in hours. That is the big one, and that is what exchanges love to do. And that was one of the reasons why we went into our bear market.
Jerry, what's your thoughts on all this?
Jerry: I think what we're seeing from a market perspective is that as the relative underlying asset's gains begin to compress — in other words, we're not appreciating 50% year-over-year, 75% year-over-year — that appreciation scale from the underlying asset is compressing. In other words, the volatility is compressing. You're seeing more and more money get wagered out into the leverage, whether in the shorts or in the longs, because the return on investment is larger if you're right. If you're wrong, obviously you lose, but if you're right, your return on investment is higher.
And so I think as Bitcoin adoption continues and the underlying asset continues to compress with its year-over-year appreciation, you'll start to see more and more activity in those leverage markets because the potential gains are so much higher. This is normal. I don't think this is any different than when you would track this to, let's say, the internet dot-com boom. With that new market expansion, you saw very much the same type of behavior. And as the underlying assets compressed in their appreciation rates, you saw more and more money move out into the derivatives.
Peter Schiff's take on Bitcoin's breakdown
Host: It's the truth. And take a look — just as I was talking about XRP, look who jumped in. Jungle Link. See, it's like you can summon people just by saying the right comments. One of these days we've got to do another show with all three of us. That'd be fun.
But I want to get into who was right, looking forward and looking backwards. You know who was right? Peter Schiff. Now wait — hear me out. I never really liked Peter because I always felt like he was going against getting people into Bitcoin. But that's just how he is. He just believes it's trash. He's a gold guy, a metals guy, more equities I think than gold, but sure.
But he did make a good point and I'll give credit where credit's due. He said: "Bitcoin is finally breaking down. It's hard to believe it's held up this long. Now it's below $80K. The next stop is likely $75K." Although it did rebound. "If that level fails to hold today, it's going to be a very long weekend for Bitcoiners, especially for ETF investors who can't sell until Monday."
And you know what? He's right about that last part. On this channel we've talked about diversification of our portfolio and how we store things. I use iTrust Custody. I use Tangem, Ledger when I have to. And you've got Bitcoin ETFs — you can actually buy ETFs through Kraken, if you guys weren't aware of that — through iBit or Grayscale or all the different ones out there. The options are there for you, and it's reasonable because doing these things protects you, especially as we just saw with the Ledger hack, the ColdCard hack, and whatever next hack is coming up. There is one downfall of the ETF and that's it.
But Jerry, do you think Peter's right here — on the first part and the second part — or is he just doing Peter things?
Jerry: I think Peter is opportunistic in that he saw a move in the market greater than 3% over a 14-day period of time and he jumped on X to create a post. It got your attention.
Host: Yeah, it did.
Jerry: But truth be told, Bitcoin hasn't broken down. How has Bitcoin broken down? Bitcoin has only, over four-year cycles, gone up. There's no breaking down. How did it break down? It broke down in a 14-day period of time. Well, anybody who's been in this market understands that we don't look at 14-day increments to make final absolute statements and decisions. Yes, there's been a bit of a retraction from the high of $87K. However, when you compare and contrast that to where we were in June and July when we were stuck in that $60,000 range, I'll take $79–80K all day long. Everything is about perspective.
Wealth preservation across four decades: treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin
Host: Yeah, it's all about perspective. That will lead us to some of our next points as we take a look going back into the 1970s — the crashes that happened then, the dot-com era, the great recession, 2022 — and just take a look at how things have moved as far as what is considered a store of value, what is considered a hedge against inflation, and how things have done over time. We'll be looking at treasuries, bonds, precious metals, and of course throwing in a little Bitcoin.
As a quick reminder, tomorrow I will be buying as I usually do through the Cash App. If you do individual buys, it's awful. If you do recurring investments — like I do every Monday at roughly 6:30 in the morning — it works out pretty well because the fees are non-existent and the spreads are negligible. I think there's a reason why they did it like that: they want you to buy Bitcoin. That's pretty much how it is.
Right now we're at a risk level of 0.47 or so. So I am 2x-ing from my original investment. If I started with $100 every week, then this week I would be doing $200. And then the week after that, if it went to 0.30–0.39, it'd be $400, and so on and so forth. That's my plan going forward.
But let's go backwards. Jerry, there was an article you sent me about wealth preservation — talking about the way in which we invest into certain assets and how people get into them during economic downturns. Some will say that right now we're in an AI bubble. Some will say that's ridiculous, that there's a lot of demand for it so how can there be a bubble? We'll see as time goes on.
But taking a look back at the 1970s and 1980s — high inflation times — I found it interesting that US treasuries went from $0.71 trillion to $0.91 trillion, roughly a 28% increase. But look at gold. And this is where I think the mentality of every precious metals person comes from — they have this mentality of "back in the day" and how well it did. Gold went from $0.4–0.5 trillion to $2 trillion. That was a massive move — plus 300%. And I think it's the same way as some of us hold on to our altcoins because we remember the huge days. Remember Cardano? Remember when it was like a nickel and then all of a sudden it went to three bucks? Those were great days.
Now, the dot-com crash of 2000–2002: US treasuries went from $5.6 to $6.2 trillion — that's plus 10%, pretty good especially as everything was pretty much evaporating underneath. Gold was about plus 5–10%, but that was mostly supply-driven.
The great recession of 2007–2009: treasuries went from $10 trillion to $12 trillion — about 20%. Gold did great, a 25–30% increase. And of course Bitcoin was just about to get started.
Then we take a look at 2022: treasuries went from $28.4 trillion and gained about $2.5 trillion — up only 9%. Gold was flat. So it did all those things back in the 70s, a little bit in the 90s, but in 2022, not so much. And then Bitcoin did even worse. I know this is a big thing because people say, "Well, it's a hedge against inflation, it's a store of value." It is, but not everybody sees it that way. Bitcoin went down 64% in that same period. It seems crazy.
And just for a little context: from 2018 through end of 2024, US treasuries went from roughly $21 trillion to $35 trillion. Gold went from $8–9 trillion to $12 trillion, then $20 trillion at end of 2024, and currently at $29 trillion. Bitcoin went from $0.7 trillion to $3.2 trillion from 2018 to 2022, and ended 2024 at $1.85 trillion. Pretty good.
So when we take a look at a hedge against inflation and store of value, just remember this: when we take a look at what Bitcoin cost for a house back in the day, it would have cost you 740,000 Bitcoin. But as of today, that same house — worth $411,000, which is the median home price — costs only five Bitcoin. So that was a lot to go over. Jerry, what are your thoughts on this before we lead into your summary of wealth preservation?
Jerry: I think it's super important to understand that the expansion of the treasury market is the creation of money. Money is created by the government issuing debt that brings money into the system. There's also the actual printing press itself, but those are directly correlated on the back end. Gold and Bitcoin are assets that, as the money supply expands, surplus cash created in those environments often finds its way to the most valuable assets. And obviously gold and Bitcoin are in that group of very valuable assets. So I just wanted to make that distinction. It's super important to understand that the reason the bond market got so big is because bonds are what actually create currency in the system — because they're debt.
They're debt, and that's what America loves. "How would you like to give us a couple million dollars and we'll give you 5%, 4%, 7%, whatever it goes up to? Sure, I'll do that. Great." And then we'll just keep printing it. That's essentially how fiat works.
Jerry's wealth preservation report: the case against the 60/40 portfolio
Host: The big takeaway from this was the article you sent me — wealth preservation in an era of monetary expansion. You can see how bonds are doing their thing, gold is doing its thing, and there's a reduction, but then you see the expansion of Bitcoin. I'm not saying everybody's going to turn to it this cycle, but as time goes on. Jerry, give us a quick rundown of what this — I think it was about an eight-pager.
Jerry: This report was generated for my patrons in the Beyond Moon Investment Club. These are people who found me through YouTube channels and said, "Hey, I've got this registered investment advisor who's telling me 60% bonds, 40% stocks — and in some cycles 40% bonds, 60% stocks. And what I'm learning about monetary expansion is that the monetary base is growing at a rate that makes my investments a net neutral. In other words, they're not actually gaining ground."
So this report was made for them to illustrate that in the times we're in today, the traditional 60/40 portfolio isn't good enough. And the reason it isn't good enough is because with monetary expansion at the levels it's at — and there is nothing to say that will change — your bonds actually lose money every year. They actually lose money year over year over year. And your S&P stocks — there are only five or six of them that are overperforming. The other 493 are actually breaking even or are net losers when you factor in the expansion of the money supply.
When I say expansion of the money supply, basically what I'm talking about is your purchasing power — the ability to take your currency and buy something. In this case, it's a home. And so one of the things we should all be really concerned about is how the value we're trying to store matches up against all the different mechanisms in which you can store value.
The ugliest and most degenerating side of that scale is: you take cash, put it in a coffee jar, and put it in your closet. That's the least effective way to store value. And the most effective is subjective, but people like you and I are saying things like cash-flowing real estate, Bitcoin, gold — and there's a whole smorgasbord of things in the middle. The thing we should know is how do we get to the point where we're maximizing the value of what we're trying to store and minimizing the depletion of the assets we want to have around. So it's really about portfolio review and understanding that.
Host: Perfectly said. So speaking of that — your suggested core allocation from this article: 10 to 20% gold, 5 to 15% Bitcoin, 3 to 8% silver, equities that have real pricing power, and minimal long-duration bonds. That's a flip from the old 60/40. The 5 to 15% Bitcoin — some of the bigger funds are saying two to five percent, and some are saying a little bit higher. Seems reasonable. Where are you at right now, Jerry, with this?
Jerry: Remember, this is built for my patrons who are not me. These are boomers who are much lower on the risk scale than I am. For me personally, it's 60–70% Bitcoin, and then real estate, and then stocks. I don't even hold gold because Bitcoin is my proxy for that element.
And when it comes right down to it, there's a lot of what I believe is misrepresentation in the gold and silver markets with a term called repatriation. It's very costly to store gold, very costly to account for gold, very costly to verify gold. Therefore, it's very easy for a broker to sell you and me the same ounce, and nobody's the wiser until we go to collect and claim it.
So when it comes to gold and silver for my own personal life, if I were to own it, I would have physical possession of it — I would have the Krugerrands in my safe at home. I don't, so don't come to my house with a shotgun. But if I did, that's how I would do it. And silver, because it's hard to break up gold if I actually needed it to transact and exchange value. Silver is much easier.
So I'm pretty much staying everything digital. My Bitcoin's digital, my stocks are becoming digital. My land, although not digital, I am tokenizing it — and it'll be directly correlated to the title company here in Costa Rica, which is a neat little side project I'm doing.
Tokenizing property stays and the future of time shares
Host: Maybe you can tokenize that waterfall on your property. I'd buy that.
Jerry: I'm going to do tokenized days. So each day of the year will represent a stay at that property. You can buy a token for October 26th — starts at 9:00 a.m. and concludes 9:00 a.m. the next day. So it'd be like a time share, but better. Or you can trade those days on a market.
Host: You know, we've had a couple of time shares in our history, me and the wife. And if you own a time share, you know what I'm going to say — to get rid of it, to sell it is the biggest pain you're ever going to go through. And if you don't use it, it's sometimes just cheaper to keep it because of the fees. That's how they get you. But if you can do something like that with tokenization of a time share, that would probably do pretty well.
Jerry: There'll be a whole ecosystem. It'll be no different than tokenizing your Airbnb — all the same business model as being an Uber driver. All of those same mechanisms are coming for that.
Host: It sounds pretty good. Jerry has to keep us updated on that.
Now, Joey's got a good point in the comments: Peter's business is selling gold, so of course he's going to dump on digital gold. But we're the same way, right? I want Bitcoin to do well. I want Ethereum, Solana, Near, Cardano, all these things to do well. So of course I'm going to talk about them positively. Peter's just the same way. It's just that he's been doing this for way longer than most of us and that's just how he sees things.
Arthur Hayes sells $22 million in altcoins
But there was this one — Jerry, did you hear about this story? What do you think of Arthur Hayes's new pump and dump project? Well, first of all, Arthur Hayes — that guy gets away with so much stuff. He essentially tells you he's dumping on you and everybody's like, "That's just what Arthur does." But this one — this is a new one. This article was from a couple of days ago. Arthur Hayes sold $22 million in altcoins amid geopolitical fears. What he offloaded: looks like 6,400 Ethereum worth $15.2 million. The firm also offloaded $2.76 million of Athena, $2 million of Uniswap, EtherFi, Aerodrome, and whatever Zama is. I don't know, Jerry. Good for him. If you want to get dumped on, there's no shortage of altcoins you can choose from. Some are going to make it, some are going to do well. I just don't know exactly which ones.
Lab-grown gold and Bitcoin's scarcity advantage
Host: There was this one story — they can make gold with mercury. This is almost like an alchemist type of thing. Not much gold, but just to start — just like lab-grown diamonds started small and became big. This article said they had actually created 10 times more gold out of mercury using technology from CERN. I don't know the actual specifics of it, but it's still super expensive to do and very limited. But if they can increase the range they're doing, that would really put a big dampener on the gold market, because then the big thing for gold is scarcity. Well, that goes out the window, and then Bitcoin becomes the only one. Thoughts on that one, Jerry?
Jerry: I think you're right. There are plausible concerns when it comes to what gold's true scarcity really is. Up until now, it's been what you could mine out of the earth. Well, pretty soon there will be alchemy elements and there'll be exploration of things outside of our planet — asteroids, the moon, other celestial bodies.
Host: But that's so far down the road. I don't think in terms like that. We'll see though.
Jerry: We'll see. But the moon isn't that far off. You look at companies like what Elon's doing with SpaceX — how soon will a Starship take a Boring Company boring machine to the moon and start excavating? I don't know if gold will be the primary purpose, but don't discount the fact that that is a possibility.
Time shares, Airbnb, and platform disintermediation
Host: Ekko in the comments says you can't sell a time share — you have to pay to get out of it. It's just a broken system. I don't know why people still do it. Probably because they're new to the game and get suckered into it.
Jerry: The underlying message of a time share has always been: you can go to this wonderful place and stay in a wonderful habitation for much less than it would cost you if you went out on your own. That was the model of time shares from when they were created in the 1960s all the way up until now. However, what has completely thrown a wrench in that entire business model is Airbnb and the ability to easily find accommodation through Booking.com, Airbnb, Vrbo, et cetera.
Host: Exactly. But with that ability to find you, there's a nice little fee. Vrbo used to be 4% — this month it's going to 12%. And Airbnb I think is 14.5 or 15%. So if you're into short-term rentals, just know there is a high cost to get in there.
Jerry: But that market is going to completely change in the next five years when agents are out searching for you. The centralized platforms that are the conduit for buyers and sellers to meet — those marketplaces will be disintermediated. They'll be worth much less in five, six, ten years because agents will be able to find something for you, whether you're on the supply side or the demand side, far easier and far cheaper than using those platforms as intermediaries.
Host: Let's hope so. On my website I've got it set up for the ability for Grok or OpenAI's ChatGPT to crawl it the right way that they want to see it. So we'll see. Hopefully that works out.
Jimmy in the comments says time shares are like boats — the two best days are the day you buy it and the day you sell it.
Jerry: If it floats or flies, rent it, never buy. That would apply to boats and jets, of course.
Host: Kelby says timing for asteroid mining has to be long. I don't see it happening anytime soon, although a lot of things are accelerating thanks to AI.
Jerry: The moon isn't that far off though, right? You look at what Elon's doing with SpaceX and how soon a Starship could take a Boring Company machine to the moon and start excavating. Don't discount that possibility.
Host: Yeah, we'll see. So that's it everybody. Hopefully these lower prices will continue tomorrow when I buy, and I can get a lower cost basis — because I think I know where things are going, and it's not down to zero like some people might think.